Gamble vs safe round 1 *no TE talk allowed* *bears fans ONLY*

[SugarWalls]

Highest gambles the bears could take in round 1 with high payoff imo are:
1. Mike green - is he truly a sexual assailant? If he isn’t he could be a top tier pass rusher, menace on the field and hopefully not off the field
2. Pearce - does he actually have work ethic issues? If not similar to green he could be a great pass rusher
3. Nolen - can he play with more consistency? If he can he could be a top tier IDL, still has a good floor imo and overall is a less risky pick

Additionally - these picks allow the bears to double down gamble on Kiran taking over as LT1 as Braxton continues to get healthy. Very risky if they don’t take a LT at top of round 2 if one is even there

Relatively safer options the bears could take

1. Hampton/jeanty - I have my reservations on jeanty being elite, but both of these players feel like can’t miss picks, surely Ben Johnson will find a way to use these players
2. Banks - would very likely take the starting LT role, probably not an elite player but has a good floor. Also has flexibility to move to guard. Strong in the run game.
2. Campbell - should be able to find his way to a decent/above average starter somewhere on the line, likely at guard imo. Would deserve a chance to play tackle, likely outplays Kiran as Braxton likely won’t be ready (despite the crunches, McDonald’s, and leg extensions he’s reported to have been doing)

Picks 2-3 also are safer in that adding depth to the OL is a good idea when inevitable injuries occur.

Personally - I’m hoping for one of the DL mentioned as the payoff is too high to pass on. The elite pass rushers Ala Crosby, Chris jones, Myles Garrett etc just aren’t going to make it to FA. The only way to get one of these impact players is to draft them.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Any EDGE, imo, outside of Carter is a gamble.

I heard Nate Tice say that Campbell probably isn't an LT, but he is a guy you can feel confident in being part of the 5 best along the line.

 

[SugarWalls]

Any EDGE, imo, outside of Carter is a gamble.

I heard Nate Tice say that Campbell probably isn't an LT, but he is a guy you can feel confident in being part of the 5 best along the line.

I agree but I do think the ceiling of the guys I mentioned is higher than those of even Campbell

 

[Enasic]

Any EDGE, imo, outside of Carter is a gamble.

I heard Nate Tice say that Campbell probably isn't an LT, but he is a guy you can feel confident in being part of the 5 best along the line.

So an OG that’s never played OG at 10? What could go wrong?

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

So an OG that’s never played OG at 10? What could go wrong?

I'm not advocating drafting Will Campbell, but I do know that a lot of guards in the league played tackle in college.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I'm not advocating drafting Will Campbell, but I do know that a lot of guards in the league played tackle in college.

I believe Brandon thorn writes about the college OT to nfl OG pipeline every year and just talked about how great it is this year. Campbell has all the traits to be good at guard, just needs to rework his stance inside if he can't play T

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

I believe Brandon thorn writes about the college OT to nfl OG pipeline every year and just talked about how great it is this year. Campbell has all the traits to be good at guard, just needs to rework his stance inside if he can't play T

This is where I am glad they have Roushar. I have no clue how hard this is to do

 

[Enasic]

I'm not advocating drafting Will Campbell, but I do know that a lot of guards in the league played tackle in college.

Oh no doubt…but how often are they top 10 picks? Especially with two starters already in place at OG? Generally, even high level college guards aren’t drafted in the top 10, yet alone unproven ones.

 

[dennehy]

No one here knows for sure about character issues. As far as what we do know, it's Mike Green. He isn't quite as well rounded as Carter, but imo he's just as good a pass rusher right now, and I think that is a huge need for the Bears.

I think the highest chance for who the Bears actually draft is Kelvin Banks. High floor prospect at a premium position of need.

 

[DefNextYear]

I really like Green and Pearce, but my guess is they aren’t even considering them cause they don’t weigh as much as 3Ts.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

No one here knows for sure about character issues. As far as what we do know, it's Mike Green. He isn't quite as well rounded as Carter, but imo he's just as good a pass rusher right now, and I think that is a huge need for the Bears.

I think the highest chance for who the Bears actually draft is Kelvin Banks. High floor prospect at a premium position of need.

I think green is actually a better pash rusher than Carter. He's also surprisingly solid against the run.

Ezeiraku is also right there as far as pure pass rushers.

 

[dennehy]

I think green is actually a better pash rusher than Carter. He's also surprisingly solid against the run.

Ezeiraku is also right there as far as pure pass rushers.

Earlier in the process I was hoping for Ezeiraku in the 2nd but that's not happening unfortunately.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Earlier in the process I was hoping for Ezeiraku in the 2nd but that's not happening unfortunately.

My concern is Detroit gets him. A combo of him and Hutchinson would be ridiculous

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Oh no doubt…but how often are they top 10 picks? Especially with two starters already in place at OG? Generally, even high level college guards aren’t drafted in the top 10, yet alone unproven ones.

I talked about this in the other thread, in a draft with not a lot of blue chip talent, and the strength being in the 2nd and 3rd rounds you might not see a lot of teams finding trade back partners. So if Campbell slips to 10, and they think he's the best OL then you draft him and figure out the rest. Conversely, if a guy like Josh Connerly is Poles' #1 tackle, are you willing to chance him being there at 39 or 41, or do you take him at 10?

 

[Enasic]

I talked about this in the other thread, in a draft with not a lot of blue chip talent, and the strength being in the 2nd and 3rd rounds you might not see a lot of teams finding trade back partners. So if Campbell slips to 10, and they think he's the best OL then you draft him and figure out the rest. Conversely, if a guy like Josh Connerly is Poles' #1 tackle, are you willing to chance him being there at 39 or 41, or do you take him at 10?

If the choice is between connerly or Campbell at 10, I’m going connerly all day.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

If the choice is between connerly or Campbell at 10, I’m going connerly all day.

Probably a moot point as they are drafting Stewart.

 

[Enasic]

Probably a moot point as they are drafting Stewart.

Damn you, sir.

 

[JoJoBoxer]

Highest gambles the bears could take in round 1 with high payoff imo are:
1. Mike green - is he truly a sexual assailant? If he isn’t he could be a top tier pass rusher, menace on the field and hopefully not off the field
2. Pearce - does he actually have work ethic issues? If not similar to green he could be a great pass rusher
3. Nolen - can he play with more consistency? If he can he could be a top tier IDL, still has a good floor imo and overall is a less risky pick

Additionally - these picks allow the bears to double down gamble on Kiran taking over as LT1 as Braxton continues to get healthy. Very risky if they don’t take a LT at top of round 2 if one is even there

Relatively safer options the bears could take

1. Hampton/jeanty - I have my reservations on jeanty being elite, but both of these players feel like can’t miss picks, surely Ben Johnson will find a way to use these players
2. Banks - would very likely take the starting LT role, probably not an elite player but has a good floor. Also has flexibility to move to guard. Strong in the run game.
2. Campbell - should be able to find his way to a decent/above average starter somewhere on the line, likely at guard imo. Would deserve a chance to play tackle, likely outplays Kiran as Braxton likely won’t be ready (despite the crunches, McDonald’s, and leg extensions he’s reported to have been doing)

Picks 2-3 also are safer in that adding depth to the OL is a good idea when inevitable injuries occur.

Personally - I’m hoping for one of the DL mentioned as the payoff is too high to pass on. The elite pass rushers Ala Crosby, Chris jones, Myles Garrett etc just aren’t going to make it to FA. The only way to get one of these impact players is to draft them.

You are nowhere near the highest gambles the Bears could take.

1. Mr. 1.5 sacks per season for 3 years, Mr. Looks Like Tarzan, Plays Like Jane would be the ultimate gamble for the Bears at 10 because of the huge bust factor and tiny success outcome chance; Not worth the chance though, going to another team might increase the chance of success by 10% over being drafted by the Bears.
2. Good floor players are not huge gamble players. Josh Simmons would be the huge gamble player at OT. If he truly recovers from the injury, he has a chance of being the best LT that comes out of the 2025 draft. That might be a gamble worth taking.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

If the choice is between connerly or Campbell at 10, I’m going connerly all day.

Strongly disagree but I know your stance on Campbell so I get it

 

[ndgt10]

I'm not advocating drafting Will Campbell, but I do know that a lot of guards in the league played tackle in college.

I hate it.