Gamble vs safe round 1 *no TE talk allowed* *bears fans ONLY*

[SugarWalls]

You are nowhere near the highest gambles the Bears could take.

1. Mr. 1.5 sacks per season for 3 years, Mr. Looks Like Tarzan, Plays Like Jane would be the ultimate gamble for the Bears at 10 because of the huge bust factor and tiny success outcome chance; Not worth the chance though, going to another team might increase the chance of success by 10% over being drafted by the Bears.
2. Good floor players are not huge gamble players. Josh Simmons would be the huge gamble player at OT. If he truly recovers from the injury, he has a chance of being the best LT that comes out of the 2025 draft. That might be a gamble worth taking.

You’re right but I only listed players I hope the bears are looking at.

Both players you listed would be much bigger gambles

 

[--CyBear--]

I think Nolen would be the guy and not a reach. It's up to the coaches to keep him motivated and spelled often enough to be all he can be and with Nolen, that's a lot. He's a disruptive penetrator. Just keep him fresh and let him go.

 

[hebs]

Probably a moot point as they are drafting Stewart.

Hate this!!!

 

[doctorbear]

Bears fans want Kiran to start a game? Wtf.

 

[playthrough2001]

Highest gambles the bears could take in round 1 with high payoff imo are:
1. Mike green - is he truly a sexual assailant? If he isn’t he could be a top tier pass rusher, menace on the field and hopefully not off the field
2. Pearce - does he actually have work ethic issues? If not similar to green he could be a great pass rusher
3. Nolen - can he play with more consistency? If he can he could be a top tier IDL, still has a good floor imo and overall is a less risky pick

Additionally - these picks allow the bears to double down gamble on Kiran taking over as LT1 as Braxton continues to get healthy. Very risky if they don’t take a LT at top of round 2 if one is even there

Relatively safer options the bears could take

1. Hampton/jeanty - I have my reservations on jeanty being elite, but both of these players feel like can’t miss picks, surely Ben Johnson will find a way to use these players
2. Banks - would very likely take the starting LT role, probably not an elite player but has a good floor. Also has flexibility to move to guard. Strong in the run game.
2. Campbell - should be able to find his way to a decent/above average starter somewhere on the line, likely at guard imo. Would deserve a chance to play tackle, likely outplays Kiran as Braxton likely won’t be ready (despite the crunches, McDonald’s, and leg extensions he’s reported to have been doing)

Picks 2-3 also are safer in that adding depth to the OL is a good idea when inevitable injuries occur.

Personally - I’m hoping for one of the DL mentioned as the payoff is too high to pass on. The elite pass rushers Ala Crosby, Chris jones, Myles Garrett etc just aren’t going to make it to FA. The only way to get one of these impact players is to draft them.

The “Bear Fans Only” designation makes this a quality thread before I’ve read a single word. We can systematically eliminate the cretins that spam the board with their idiocy by continuing to use this tag.

Thanks!

 

[Caveroamer]

Bears fans want Kiran to start a game? Wtf.

Kiran is a classic case of hope for the best but prepare for the worst. He had no business playing. He started the season injured and didn't get any training camp as a rookie, then he didn't get any meaningful time in practice because they had to forge ahead with Braxton. That said, He had the measurables, and was supposed to be smart coming from Yale, so why didn't he look better with the time he had anyways? That said, name ONE single O-line player that our COACHING staff improved to any meaningful degree that could be credited to the coaches teaching them the pro game... With the new staff, we will HOPE that the new staff and a full offseason can put Kiran into a position where he can blossom into a beast at tackle. but PREPARE for him just not having the right makeup for whatever reason and draft OT somewhere as well.

 

[doctorbear]

Kiran is a classic case of hope for the best but prepare for the worst. He had no business playing. He started the season injured and didn't get any training camp as a rookie, then he didn't get any meaningful time in practice because they had to forge ahead with Braxton. That said, He had the measurables, and was supposed to be smart coming from Yale, so why didn't he look better with the time he had anyways? That said, name ONE single O-line player that our COACHING staff improved to any meaningful degree that could be credited to the coaches teaching them the pro game... With the new staff, we will HOPE that the new staff and a full offseason can put Kiran into a position where he can blossom into a beast at tackle. but PREPARE for him just not having the right makeup for whatever reason and draft OT somewhere as well.

It's time for the bears to stop double down gambling on bad players who had long arms. Good teams don't think that way. If they think there's an above average LT at number 10 I'd love for them to take that player.

 

[--CyBear--]

Kiran is a classic case of hope for the best but prepare for the worst. He had no business playing. He started the season injured and didn't get any training camp as a rookie, then he didn't get any meaningful time in practice because they had to forge ahead with Braxton. That said, He had the measurables, and was supposed to be smart coming from Yale, so why didn't he look better with the time he had anyways? That said, name ONE single O-line player that our COACHING staff improved to any meaningful degree that could be credited to the coaches teaching them the pro game... With the new staff, we will HOPE that the new staff and a full offseason can put Kiran into a position where he can blossom into a beast at tackle. but PREPARE for him just not having the right makeup for whatever reason and draft OT somewhere as well.

This but not sure that somewhere should be in the 1st this year. The rest of the line looks pretty solid and it's not difficult to cover one T while he finds his way.

 

[--CyBear--]

It's time for the bears to stop double down gambling on bad players who had long arms. Good teams don't think that way. If they think there's an above average LT at number 10 I'd love for them to take that player.

The gamble was the ding, not the player. May they have missed like any prospect? Sure but we don't know that yet. They'll know more than we do and hopefully address it correctly but there's no way for a fan to know what that is right now. He was drafted for 2025 and had to play last year with little practice or time to get his strength back due to attrition. I'm not saying he's the answer but I just don't know that he isn't. His projection by this new staff will determine what the Bear do early in this draft. If BJ wants a T, he'll get it.

Unless Jones gets more stout by the end of this season, they're going to want to replace him before he gets 2nd contract money so I'm certain it's a not being overlooked. It's unfortunate he's dinged as I feel he'd hold up better without the pocket constantly collapsing like the last couple years but he'd obviously benefit from a better anchor.

 

[msadows]

The gamble was the ding, not the player. May they have missed like any prospect? Sure but we don't know that yet. They'll know more than we do and hopefully address it correctly but there's no way for a fan to know what that is right now. He was drafted for 2025 and had to play last year with little practice or time to get his strength back due to attrition.

Unless Jones gets more stout by the end of this season, they're going to want to replace him before he gets 2nd contract money so I'm certain it's a not being overlooked. It's unfortunate he's dinged as I feel he'd hold up better without the pocket constantly collapsing like the last couple years but he'd obviously benefit from a better anchor.

Yea I dont see how anyone can judge kiran off 1.5 games when he barely practiced, had no offseason program/camp, and didnt play football for a year.

It was expected for him to play poorly. He should have never been put in that situation, especially not against the Vikings.

He might be dogshit but he might also develop into a good player.

The better question is why would an OL needy team draft a preinjured redshirt player with the #75 pick. Thats a risk a team with a solid starting 5 takes

 

[--CyBear--]

Yea I dont see how anyone can judge kiran off 1.5 games when he barely practiced, had no offseason program/camp, and didnt play football for a year.

It was expected for him to play poorly. He should have never been put in that situation, especially not against the Vikings.

He might be dogshit but he might also develop into a good player.

The better question is why would an OL needy team draft a preinjured redshirt player with the #75 pick. Thats a risk a team with a solid starting 5 takes

They saw this as a weak class where they expected to be drafting in 1? Oops.

If they want to draft a T and continue to develop Kiran, I'm good with it. His potential is off the charts but we all know what they say about potential.

 

[doctorbear]

Yea I dont see how anyone can judge kiran off 1.5 games when he barely practiced, had no offseason program/camp, and didnt play football for a year.

It was expected for him to play poorly. He should have never been put in that situation, especially not against the Vikings.

He might be dogshit but he might also develop into a good player.

The better question is why would an OL needy team draft a preinjured redshirt player with the #75 pick. Thats a risk a team with a solid starting 5 takes

But it's more likely he's dogshit or below average than a good player. If youre in a position to draft a good player at one of the most important positions on the team then you go for it and not wait to see if the gamble pays off

 

[msadows]

But it's more likely he's dogshit or below average than a good player. If youre in a position to draft a good player at one of the most important positions on the team then you go for it and not wait to see if the gamble pays off

We just cant say that yet. I dont expect anything out of him but he played the 2nd most difficult position in football as a rookie with basically zero preperation. Thats not fair to judge him on that. Our GM has also shown he likes to give his high draft picks every opportunity to fail.

I guess we wont have to wait long to find out what they think of kiran. If its a tackle at #10 then clearly they dont see him as good enough to even be a swing tackle. Or maybe the plan is to move him inside for depth.

 

[doctorbear]

We just cant say that yet. I dont expect anything out of him but he played the 2nd most difficult position in football as a rookie with basically zero preperation. Thats not fair to judge him on that. Our GM has also shown he likes to give his high draft picks every opportunity to fail.

I guess we wont have to wait long to find out what they think of kiran. If it's a tackle at #10 then clearly they dont see him as good enough to even be a swing tackle. Or maybe the plan is to move him inside for depth.

Super Bowl teams don't really try to risk their success on stuff like this.i guess that's my point. If you can get a better player you just go ahead and move on or use as depth as you said.

Id rather learn he's good because he's a backup and comes in for a starter and proves himself

 

[Penny Traitor]

I think Nolen would be the guy and not a reach. It's up to the coaches to keep him motivated and spelled often enough to be all he can be and with Nolen, that's a lot. He's a disruptive penetrator. Just keep him fresh and let him go.

I don't watch much CFB, so I am pretty quiet this time of year, but from what I have seen...I think Nolen is a great pick at 10. Outside of Carter, the first round EDGE prospects seem kinda "meh" and Nolen looks like a natural 3-tech. Needs some technique refinement, but the Bears scored a pretty accomplished DC...so I am not seeing the problem there.

If the Bears pass on him, I bet the Niners pounce just after.

 

[msadows]

I don't watch much CFB, so I am pretty quiet this time of year, but from what I have seen...I think Nolen is a great pick at 10. Outside of Carter, the first round EDGE prospects seem kinda "meh" and Nolen looks like a natural 3-tech. Needs some technique refinement, but the Bears scored a pretty accomplished DC...so I am not seeing the problem there.

If the Bears pass on him, I bet the Niners pounce just after.

Not to be that guy but you can prob trade up into the mid-late 20's and still get nolen while grabbing an offensive tackle at #10

Also, I'm not certain how much the bears are chasing for a 3Tech having both jarret and dexter. They need another nose, especially considering billings might not be fully healthy.

 

[--CyBear--]

I don't watch much CFB, so I am pretty quiet this time of year, but from what I have seen...I think Nolen is a great pick at 10. Outside of Carter, the first round EDGE prospects seem kinda "meh" and Nolen looks like a natural 3-tech. Needs some technique refinement, but the Bears scored a pretty accomplished DC...so I am not seeing the problem there.

If the Bears pass on him, I bet the Niners pounce just after.

I'm like you when it comes to watching college ball as I've worked on Sat my entire adult life but when i get the scent, I'll try and watch a full game type of film as opposed to highlights.

With as much as the Bear have done to shore up the O in the off season, I wouldn't be surprised if Allen gets the 1st pick and he's said that D starts between the Guards.

 

[Penny Traitor]

Not to be that guy but you can prob trade up into the mid-late 20's and still get nolen while grabbing an offensive tackle at #10

I don't think he falls that far and I don't think the team is as hyper focused on OL anymore.



Of course now that I have taken this stand, it will be Campbell at 10 and somehow Nolen will drop to Day Two, so I should probably get back to STFU.

I just wanted to cheer up @DaaBears with a first round defensive pick

 

[--CyBear--]

I don't think he falls that far and I don't think the team is as hyper focused on OL anymore.



Of course now that I have taken this stand, it will be Campbell at 10 and somehow Nolen will drop to Day Two, so I should probably get back to STFU.

I just wanted to cheer up @DaaBears with a first round defensive pick

The league is kinda quiet about Nolen right now.

 

[hyatt151]

Any EDGE, imo, outside of Carter is a gamble.

I heard Nate Tice say that Campbell probably isn't an LT, but he is a guy you can feel confident in being part of the 5 best along the line.

if you draft Campbell, I think he easily beats out Jackson in camp