GM Jed Hoyer: A deal with the Mets will happen at some point

[dabears253313]

Unproven? Sure all young players are unproven but I don't think there are too many people that would argue that Russell, Soler and Bryant are major league players. Like all young players they will stumble but I think it's clear they won't be bust outs. Baez, eh not so much. I don't think he will be but he could be. This year is for figuring all that out but they do need pitching for beyond this year and they're going to need to trade for it. Anyone that thinks they're going to sign a TOR starter like David Price is crazy. He'll get at least what Scherzer got, likely more and I don't see, or frankly even want, the Cubs paying that kind of money and combine it with what they are already paying Lester, not to mention that would like to get Arrieta signed (Boras client so who knows there). They want a young starter bottom line and they have enough to get one in trade, it's going to hurt though and could be a take one step back situation particularly for this year.

On the Castro thing though I think he's undervalued around the league in part because of this negative media vibe that surrounds him, much of it without merit, take away his 2013 outlier year statistically and he's a very good player. Even with it his career numbers are solid. He's going to make some dumb errors, that's who he is, but how many better all around SS are there in the game, can't be more than 5 or 6. there are much better defenders and there a few better hitters but combined package and he's damned good. You can't let knuckleheads like Harold Reynolds define his worth.

I agree the Starlin Castro errors thing is over exaggerated. The media just needs something to talk about. For every error he makes, he makes five good plays. I think Javier Baez and Addison Russell play a in people wanting Castro traded. Who needs a 25 year old-three time all star when you have PROSPECTS!? Seriously though, he has three all stars at 25, half of the players in MLB don't get called up until they're 25.

 

[CSF77]

I think the Mets are eyeing Tulo more at this point.

 

[CSF77]

I agree the Starlin Castro errors thing is over exaggerated. The media just needs something to talk about. For every error he makes, he makes five good plays. I think Javier Baez and Addison Russell play a in people wanting Castro traded. Who needs a 25 year old-three time all star when you have PROSPECTS!? Seriously though, he has three all stars at 25, half of the players in MLB don't get called up until they're 25.

The problem is Baez and Russell are both 21. They have 4 years to grow. Right now it makes little sense to trade him but when Russell adapts and Baez starts to hit major league pitching I'm hard pressed to say Castro is the best of the 3. Right now he is because he is adapted.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think the Mets are eyeing Tulo more at this point.

He'll be cheaper in prospects but that contract is expensive. I tend to agree though because with the more reasonable contract, and the fact that the Cubs really have no desire to trade Castro unless they are knocked over with an offer, any deal for Castro would have a much higher prospect cost, probably two pitchers and they don't want to do that. The thing is I don't know how Syndergaard would fare in Coors if he's the Rockies target as speculated.

 

[beckdawg]

He'll be cheaper in prospects but that contract is expensive. I tend to agree though because with the more reasonable contract, and the fact that the Cubs really have no desire to trade Castro unless they are knocked over with an offer, any deal for Castro would have a much higher prospect cost, probably two pitchers and they don't want to do that. The thing is I don't know how Syndergaard would fare in Coors if he's the Rockies target as speculated.

Will he? I'd argue Tulow would cost as much if not more and the only reason it's close is because Castro's contract is so team friendly. He's had 6 seasons of 5+ fWAR. Castro's never had a single season above 3.1. Tulo is a better hitter and a better defender. He's 5 years older and more of an injury risk but it's not like he's out of his prime yet at 30.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Agreed that Tulo is the better player but the age and the contract are exactly what drives the prospect return down. Not to mention the fact that Tulo's agent is about to ask for a trade putting pressure on the team. Obviously they still don't have to but those things matter. Also I think at the heart of the matter Colorado would just as soon get something for him and lose the contract before it's all said and done. Contrast that with the Cubs who really don't want to trade Castro at all and have attached a pretty stiff price to him. If the Mets want Castro it's going to cost Syndergaard, probably an infielder like Murphy and another pitching prospect. If they're willing to take on Tulo's money I think they send Colorado a lot less than that.

 

[brett05]

Agreed that Tulo is the better player but the age and the contract are exactly what drives the prospect return down. Not to mention the fact that Tulo's agent is about to ask for a trade putting pressure on the team. Obviously they still don't have to but those things matter. Also I think at the heart of the matter Colorado would just as soon get something for him and lose the contract before it's all said and done. Contrast that with the Cubs who really don't want to trade Castro at all and have attached a pretty stiff price to him. If the Mets want Castro it's going to cost Syndergaard, probably an infielder like Murphy and another pitching prospect. If they're willing to take on Tulo's money I think they send Colorado a lot less than that.

What makes you think the Rockies aren;t asking for an unrealistic pile like that?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What makes you think the Rockies aren;t asking for an unrealistic pile like that?

Simply because that's not what I've been hearing and reading and the logic behind it. They actually might ask for something huge but will bargain down due to the coming trade request and salary relief. This is a team that isn't winning anything, he's an aging player with a big contract and every day they wait is another day where he could get injured. Plus I don't think Jeff Bridich is Ruben Amaro Jr., but heck what do I know?

 

[beckdawg]

Agreed that Tulo is the better player but the age and the contract are exactly what drives the prospect return down. Not to mention the fact that Tulo's agent is about to ask for a trade putting pressure on the team. Obviously they still don't have to but those things matter. Also I think at the heart of the matter Colorado would just as soon get something for him and lose the contract before it's all said and done. Contrast that with the Cubs who really don't want to trade Castro at all and have attached a pretty stiff price to him. If the Mets want Castro it's going to cost Syndergaard, probably an infielder like Murphy and another pitching prospect. If they're willing to take on Tulo's money I think they send Colorado a lot less than that.

I don't think he has as much leverage as you think. At the end of the day they have him locked up for at least 5 years and potentially a 6th if they so choose. If you're the Rockies why are you eager to deal a 5 WAR player unless you're getting substantial return? To me all the requesting a trade stuff does is makes him available rather than untouchable which he arguably should be.

The money isn't an issue. If you're colorado you can eat some of it in return for better prospects which you would almost certainly do if needed. But I honestly don't think it comes to that. All you have to do is say hmmm well the first place Yankees are starting a SS who's hitting .212/.275/.242 and they couldn't care less about that contract. Let's give them a call. The first place dodgers are starting Rollins who's hitting .172/.255/.295. The second place Nationals are set to lose Ian Desmond to FA anyways and he's hitting .225/.277/.341. In other words, it's a sellers market a SS.

That's why I think people are vastly underestimating what Baez would return in a trade. If you contrast that with the pitching that may be available in Hamels, possibly Shark, possibly Gray not to mention lessor options like Gallardo and Jorge De La Rosa there are vastly more options in pitching. Plus numerous guys like Latos, Shark, and Zimmerman will be potential FAs.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Actually I'm not one underestimating Baez' trade value. I think that if a team liked him a year ago they still like him because if you see something in a guy, especially that young, early careers woes aren't going to turn them off. They are going to provide them a little leverage as a buyer, but if they liked him they still do. Baez as the key component in a deal for a pitcher gets you started. I had I thought he'd be a good offer for Steven Matz but the conventional wisdom is that the Mets actually like Matz more than Syndergaard, partly because Matz is a Long Island product, but know that other teams feel the opposite. That means they're likely not going to trade him and I'm convinced Syndergaard would cost a package led by Castro or Russell. Makes for an unlikely trade with the Cubs and yet you've got Hoyer's cryptic comments. Just stuff for us to talk about for now.

As far as the other pitchers you mention I don't know why you would want any of them. As I understand and see it this year is not a win now year. It's "gosh it would be nice to win year" and a year where the young kids need to learn how to play meaningful games in August and September but I don't see shipping assets off that can be used for young pitching. If this team is going to win in 2016 and beyond it's going to need a mid 20's pitcher with TOR potential. That's going to cost. I could see getting that guy this year, and he might help, or I can see saving the assets for an offseason mega move but I can't see trading them for short term pieces or older arms.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm convinced Syndergaard would cost a package led by Castro or Russell.

Feel like even if the teams wanted to do that deal it would be a vast overpay. For one, Russell(ignoring castro for a moment) was higher rated than him to begin with. For two, hitting is vastly safer. It's rare you get true prospect for prospect trades. The most recent example that comes to mind is the Montero for Pineda trade. IIRC Pineda was the #16 prospect prior to the year he finally debuted. Montero that year was the #5 prospect. I'd argue though the fact that Pineda had already put in a full season at 22 of 9.11/2.89 k/9 bb/9 and 3.74/3.42 ERA/FIP greatly elevated his value because that wasn't just a decent debut it was arguably #3 starter level at 22 which should in theory lends itself to a pretty sick prime years.

Overall though, I just haven't heard good reasoning why Baez doesn't get you Syndergaard or at the very least gets a conversation started possibly with other lessor guys. I say that as a trade in a vacuum situation here. Obviously the cubs could like Baez more than the Mets and the Mets could like Syndergaard more than the cubs...etc. I honestly view Baez's value at the same level or very very close to Russell. I think Baez was the #7 prospect or there about on most lists midseason last year before his call up and Russell was like #5. Syndergaard was in the 10-15 range on most lists.

I mean look I like Syndergaard a lot but it feels like this conversation has turned into what's shiney and new and Baez no longer is that. Syndergaard isn't a sure thing. Again to be clear of the top 50 prospects at pitcher he's probably the guy I like the most personally and I've made my feelings on Baez well known. Having said that, he had a 4.60/3.70 ERA/FIP in 26 starts at AAA last year. I don't feel like he's done anything to warrant this crazy type of value people have on him yet. The tools on Baez are the same they were last midseaosn when he ranked higher than Syndergaard.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm in no way talking about a straight up trade. The Cubs supposedly offered Castro for Syndergaard and deGrom in the offseason and it was a non starter. You could maybe ask for Syndergaard, Murphy and Wheeler which would get you a serviceable infielder and a TOR starter by the end of 2016 as Wheeler cones back from TJ. Add a prospect on the Cubs side and you might get that done. That would give you a possibility of a damned good rotation in 2017 without breaking the bank for an over 30 starter.

 

[Ari Bear]

The problem is Baez and Russell are both 21. They have 4 years to grow. Right now it makes little sense to trade him but when Russell adapts and Baez starts to hit major league pitching I'm hard pressed to say Castro is the best of the 3. Right now he is because he is adapted.

Thats a bit to long. Baez has already nearly spent 3 years in the Cubs farms system. Maybe one more year and I think we will all know if Baez will be any good or not.

 

[brett05]

I'm in no way talking about a straight up trade. The Cubs supposedly offered Castro for Syndergaard and deGrom in the offseason and it was a non starter. You could maybe ask for Syndergaard, Murphy and Wheeler which would get you a serviceable infielder and a TOR starter by the end of 2016 as Wheeler cones back from TJ. Add a prospect on the Cubs side and you might get that done. That would give you a possibility of a damned good rotation in 2017 without breaking the bank for an over 30 starter.

LOL...Not a chance even on the revised offer.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

LOL...Not a chance even on the revised offer.

Really? Even with the risk factor of Wheeler thrown in and the unknown of Syndergaard? The Cubs believe that Castro's value is two young pitchers, you can argue on the level of prospect. Based the value of a position player, Castro in particular with his affordable contract, and the value of pitchers with risk factors I tend to agree with them. I get the that the media does not but I think that's because Castro has gotten such rough ride by them, largely undeserved. Do you disagree on Castro's value?

 

[brett05]

Really? Even with the risk factor of Wheeler thrown in and the unknown of Syndergaard? The Cubs believe that Castro's value is two young pitchers, you can argue on the level of prospect. Based the value of a position player, Castro in particular with his affordable contract, and the value of pitchers with risk factors I tend to agree with them. I get the that the media does not but I think that's because Castro has gotten such rough ride by them, largely undeserved. Do you disagree on Castro's value?

Full Disclosure, I would have traded Castro three years ago at the peak of his value.

Now Castro today has value and quite a bit. He's young, he's improved defensively and he's a good non -power non ob type hitter that very well can get 2500+ hits in his career. But I don;t think anyone including the Cubs think that Castro can be anything more than what he is now. He'll never be in the Tulo class offensively or defensively. So what is that worth? Good question.

I think he's worth a #2/3 starting pitcher if that is what you are after. If that is a spec, you need to look at the non TOR guys. If it's a current MLB pitcher, than you can look at a team's #2 and #3 guys. I think the Mets immediately pass on Wheeler, Murphy and Syndergaard for Castro. The Mets have no reason to over pay.

Here's the trade offer I would make. I'd contact the Phillies and offer up Castro, Vogelbach, and one of the young pitchers (Underwood, Black, Edwards) for Hamels.
It would mean a pretty big risk at 2b, but...Wow...On second thought, no, don;t do it. I like the Cubs better when they stink

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Full Disclosure, I would have traded Castro three years ago at the peak of his value.

Now Castro today has value and quite a bit. He's young, he's improved defensively and he's a good non -power non ob type hitter that very well can get 2500+ hits in his career. But I don;t think anyone including the Cubs think that Castro can be anything more than what he is now. He'll never be in the Tulo class offensively or defensively. So what is that worth? Good question.

I think he's worth a #2/3 starting pitcher if that is what you are after. If that is a spec, you need to look at the non TOR guys. If it's a current MLB pitcher, than you can look at a team's #2 and #3 guys. I think the Mets immediately pass on Wheeler, Murphy and Syndergaard for Castro. The Mets have no reason to over pay.

Here's the trade offer I would make. I'd contact the Phillies and offer up Castro, Vogelbach, and one of the young pitchers (Underwood, Black, Edwards) for Hamels.
It would mean a pretty big risk at 2b, but...Wow...On second thought, no, don;t do it. I like the Cubs better when they stink

I just don't want Hamels. I think that with what you have to give up that lessens your ability to get a young arm. Edwards could be that guy, the Cubs either really think so or want others to believe it, but I don't count on that. I don't think this is a team with unlimited payroll and I don't want to see them hamstrung by large contracts. Hamels is an affordable one but it makes your pitching staff fairly old and your window shorter. Ideally you want a guy that can't start as a 4 or 5 and be a 1 or 2 when Lester is a 3 or 4 in 2 or 3 years. To me they just can't lose sight of the long term and I don't think they will. For that reason I would very much prefer not dealing Castro because, as you say, he kind of is what he is and on this team that's valuable.

 

[CSF77]

I just don't want Hamels. I think that with what you have to give up that lessens your ability to get a young arm. Edwards could be that guy, the Cubs either really think so or want others to believe it, but I don't count on that. I don't think this is a team with unlimited payroll and I don't want to see them hamstrung by large contracts. Hamels is an affordable one but it makes your pitching staff fairly old and your window shorter. Ideally you want a guy that can't start as a 4 or 5 and be a 1 or 2 when Lester is a 3 or 4 in 2 or 3 years. To me they just can't lose sight of the long term and I don't think they will. For that reason I would very much prefer not dealing Castro because, as you say, he kind of is what he is and on this team that's valuable.

That is just silly talk as Hamels has control until 2019 and fits with the window fine. You are talking Hamels, Arrieta, Lester, Hammel this year and next. At that point they have to decide if they extend Hammel and Arrieta. And I feel both would stick around.

None in the staff are young but the Cubs are not drafting pitching in the first round as they do not trust depending on the draft to get it. If something comes up they will use it as we have seen with Hendricks.

The reality is Hamels wou;d be replacing Wood in the rotation so I would include Wood in the deal to move some contract out. This also gives Philly some innings relief on a bottom dweller. You are looking at absorbing innings at that point vs winning games.

2nd guy would have to be a blue chip player. Philly just promoted Maikel Franco and is starting to convert Cody Asche to the OF. So this is a long term move. Ryan Howard is signed through 2016 with a 2017 option (10 mil buy out) Buying out saves 13 mil. So Vogelbach is a natural fit for them at 1B and gives Dan the time to finish his development. Now at this point he is no blue chip but he is a impact bat in any line up.

Chase Utley 2016-2018 are option years. Vesting options but with a 2016 2 mil buy out. I can not see them not pulling it. So they will need a 2B for 2016. Freddy Galvis is not a eye popping SS. Top prospect is J.P. Crawford at A+. So they already have a long term SS plan in the system. I see Baez as the guy that they would want. He replaces Utley next year at 2B and they can keep SS clear (or short term contract if planning to contend vs rebuild). Even then they could vest Utley and keep Baez at SS then move Baez to 2B when Crawford promotes. I don't see the logic of this if they deal out Hamels though. At that point you scrap the team and go full rebuild like Theo did with the Cubs.

So Wood, Baez, Vogelbach all make sense for the Phills at that point. They would be able to dump contract with Hamels and Utley at that point. And opt out on Howard for the 2017 season with this trade covering the basic needs.

At that point it could be any player the Cubs have as a 4th player. Phills are pretty dep in SP prospects. Roman Quinn at AA is a lead off type. Top pitching prospect is Aaron Nola at AA. You almost think they would want another bat at that point. I'm thinking RF as they really have no option there in the pipe. Jeff Francoeur there now. I'm the Phills I would shoot for the moon and ask for Eloy Jimenez. At that point If I'm Jed I would counter with switching Jackson for Wood to shed more contract in the deal.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So all things being equal, presuming you could get something done, you wouldn't rather have a 22 year old Syndergaard or someone like a 25 year old Sonny Gray instead of Hamels? You'd have a nice mix of ages in pitchers going forward with the various injury risks involved. If you trade for Hamels you won't be able be trade for that young pitcher, you have enough prospects left. That's my point.

 

[brett05]

So all things being equal, presuming you could get something done, you wouldn't rather have a 22 year old Syndergaard or someone like a 25 year old Sonny Gray instead of Hamels? You'd have a nice mix of ages in pitchers going forward with the various injury risks involved. If you trade for Hamels you won't be able be trade for that young pitcher, you have enough prospects left. That's my point.

Tough call. Gray over Noah, but Hamels over both. Hamels helps now as Does Gray. Noah maybe a couple of years to figure it all out. Gray would cost at least double Hamels in a trade. Give me hamels. I'm striking now and keeping some specs.