Grantland NFL Trade value chart

[FirstTimer]

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9492942/bill-barnwell-ranks-top-assets-nfl

TRADE VALUE RULES

1. Contracts matter. Mike Wallace is a better receiver than Randall Cobb, but Wallace just signed a five-year contract that guarantees him $27 million, while the Packers have Cobb under contract for two more years at a total cost of less than $1.9 million.

2. Contracts don't matter as much as they do in the NBA version of this column. NBA contracts are guaranteed and clearly defined. NFL contracts have nonguaranteed base salaries and bonuses that are often paid early in a deal, even as the cap hit stretches across the length of the deal. Those bonuses then accelerate onto the current cap in the event of a trade, but the team can also get out of the contract without having to pay the nonguaranteed base salaries if they wa— you're falling asleep. Wake up. For the purposes of this column, we're considering both the specific nature of the current point in the player's contract (e.g., Matt Ryan having just one year left on his contract) as well as the broader terms of the entire contract (e.g., the entirety of Ryan's deal).

3. Age matters. Tom Brady is an incredible quarterback, but when he made his way into the Patriots lineup in 2001, Robert Griffin III was in sixth grade. Remember the golden rule of NFL contracts: You don't value a player for what he's done, you value him for what he's going to do. That's in play here.

4. Pretend that every team can fit each player on this list within their cap and that they have a below-average starter at the position in question. The Broncos aren't going to deal Von Miller for Cam Newton because they have Peyton Manning, even though that trade would happen in a heartbeat if Brock Osweiler were starting in Denver.

5. Positional scarcity matters. Quarterbacks are more valuable than pass rushers, who are more valuable than wide receivers, who are more valuable than interior linemen. When in doubt, we looked at how organizations valued top players at each position when re-signing their own or shopping in free agency.

6. It's a question of degree. The Steelers might not trade Ben Roethlisberger for Russell Wilson, but they'd have to give the possibility of acquiring a younger, cheaper, healthier guy some thought. The Seahawks would hang up on the Steelers if they called and offered Roethlisberger for Wilson.

7. This list runs in reverse order. If Patrick Willis is 25th on the list, the 49ers would probably at least consider dealing him for one of the first 24 players on the list, but they wouldn't bother having much of a conversation for players 26 through 50.

Jay Cutler is #33

33. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago

Josh Freeman has about $25 million in guaranteed money riding on his success this season, which is maybe more than anybody else in football. Jay Cutler is just behind him. I wrote last year that we should stop waiting for Jay Cutler to change into some drastically different quarterback, but if Jay Cutler ever was going to change and take a sustained step forward, this would be the year. He'll have the best offensive line he's seen since his days in Denver, with first-round pick Kyle Long slotting in at guard and free-agent tackle Jermon Bushrod finally pushing overwhelmed left tackle J'Marcus Webb to the right side. He'll have a tight end who can actually catch, Martellus Bennett. And he'll finally have a head coach who has experience working with quarterbacks, former Montreal Alouettes head coach Marc Trestman. In the final year of his contract, Cutler has the best cast around him that he's had during his time in Chicago.

The difference between Freeman and Cutler is, the latter has a much higher ceiling.20 If Cutler has a disappointing season and the Bears don't re-sign him, he'll still attract plenty of attention in free agency and get $15 million or so in guaranteed money. If Freeman has a disappointing season, he's more likely to get a Kevin Kolb sort of contract with a few million dollars guaranteed. At 30, this might also be Cutler's last chance to get a megabucks long-term deal, so he has everything to play for in 2013.

 

[Camden Cutler]

no other bears?..no forte?

 

[FirstTimer]

no other bears?..no forte?

It wasn't the entire list. Next part of it comes out on Wednesday.

Today's was only 50-31.

Based on this part of the rules:

7. This list runs in reverse order. If Patrick Willis is 25th on the list, the 49ers would probably at least consider dealing him for one of the first 24 players on the list, but they wouldn't bother having much of a conversation for players 26 through 50.

The chart says the Bears would consider trading Cutler for:

32. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas

31. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants

And the rest of the list when it's posted.

 

[Camden Cutler]

jpp had a huge drop off from last season but is still a solid player...and dez bryant is a ticking time bomb..already got one of those

id take my middle of the pack qb

 

[Bearly]

It's an interesting article but if all franchises had to start from scratch and draft from available players, Cutler goes well before 33. You don't have to agree but I think it's stating the obvious. I also think anybody in the top 30 or so is worth a couple mid 1st round picks of a College draft. We're basically talking about the best or at least most important player on every team and better than the second on any other. Hard to come by players that don't get traded.

 

[gpphat]

Read that earlier today and found it interesting considering there was the Freeman over Cutler discussion the other day

 

[FirstTimer]

It's an interesting article but if all franchises had to start from scratch and draft from available players, Cutler goes well before 33. You don't have to agree but I think it's stating the obvious. I also thin anybody in the top 30 or so is worth a couple mid 1st round picks of a College draft. We're basically talking about the best or at least most important player on every team and better than the second so on any other. Hard to come by players that don't get traded.

Ehhhh.....doubt it.

As for the rest of your post, I don't think you read or understood the article.

 

[Bearly]

Sure I did. I just gave a different perspective on rankings. It's called discussion. His rankings are fine for his context. I simply changed the context and as usual, you refuse to accept the obvious with a predictable dig because it doesn't fit an agenda.

 

[FirstTimer]

Sure I did. I just gave a different perspective on rankings. It's called discussion. His rankings are fine for his context. I simply changed the context and as usual, you refuse to accept the obvious with a predictable dig because it doesn't fit an agenda.

Changing the context doesn't make any sense because the list wasn't made with that context. I don't have an agenda I posted an article. Why so paranoid

 

[Alterego]

Sure I did. I just gave a different perspective on rankings. It's called discussion. His rankings are fine for his context. I simply changed the context and as usual, you refuse to accept the obvious with a predictable dig because it doesn't fit an agenda.

 

[Gunzaan]

It's an interesting article but if all franchises had to start from scratch and draft from available players, Cutler goes well before 33. You don't have to agree but I think it's stating the obvious. I also thin anybody in the top 30 or so is worth a couple mid 1st round picks of a College draft. We're basically talking about the best or at least most important player on every team and better than the second so on any other. Hard to come by players that don't get traded.

Think about it seriously though.

If you want to be generous, Cutler is the 10th to 12th best QB in the league.. After the first 5 picks of elite QBing, teams are going to start picking the best LTs, DEs, LBs, Adrian Peterson, and a few WRs. Not every team that wins it all has the best QBs. Hell, look at last year.

So Cutler going #33 should be looked at proudly.

 

[botfly10]

Pretty good assessment of cutler, imo. Though I disagree with the conclusion.

 

[Bearly]

Changing the context doesn't make any sense because the list wasn't made with that context. I don't have an agenda I posted an article. Why so paranoid

I don't think you understand the meaning of paranoid. Never said your agenda had anything to do with me and I simply responded to a thread before this nonsense ensued. Never needed to be another insult fest or argument to begin with but I guess a post is harder to defuse by actually responding to it.

 

[FirstTimer]

Pretty good assessment of cutler, imo. Though I disagree with the conclusion.

How so?

 

[Bearly]

Pretty good assessment of cutler, imo. Though I disagree with the conclusion.

This. Even the article acknowledges the superior value of QBs thought it's not as big a superiority in their scenario. Still, how can your risk taking Peppers while others take QBs to be stuck with Ponder or less next time around.

 

[FirstTimer]

This. Even the article acknowledges the superior value of QBs thought it's not as big a superiority in their scenario. Still, how can your risk taking Peppers while others take QBs to be stuck with Ponder or less next time around.

Bc Cutlers not that damn good. The list also takes current contract into account as well so it's not a simple talent v talent comp

 

[Bearly]

I don't disagree with that at this time. I hope to be able to next year but that wasn't a consideration since they were discussing my post.

 

[Nick80]

Cutler? Again? Fuck no!

 

[GoBears]

I can't see the original post. It says, "This message is hidden because FirstTimer is on your ignore list."

Oh, that's right, I ignored him when he said Walter Payton died of AIDS.

 

[FirstTimer]

I can't see the original post. It says, "This message is hidden because FirstTimer is on your ignore list."

Oh, that's right, I ignored him when he said Walter Payton died of AIDS.