Greinke or Price?

[TC in Mississippi]

I disagree with this but can you explain why you think this way. I'm honestly interested to hear why. My view is there's so much pitching on the FA market how do you create demand for your starter? There's not a ton of guys who will be FA in 2017. Off the top of my head I think Strausburg and Cashner are the two biggest names with no one else major. I think Gio Gonzo has a club option for that year. So, I can perhaps see someone like Strausburg getting moved.

Also with the new front office in Altanta I think it's in the realm of possible that Teheran gets moved if they just don't like him as much as the previous front office but I think that's highly unlikely. Off the top of my head I can't think of any other obvious GM changes that lead to pitching. Dumbrowski in Boston seems to be in acquire pitching mode more than sell it. Dipoto has Hernandez to possibly deal but can you really deal him with that contract and the fact you're so heavy into Cano as well? Billy Eppler took over for Dipoto and again not really seeing pitching moving there. David Stearns was hired in Milwalkee.... same. Scott Proefrock and Al Avila in Philly/Detroit... same.

I just have trouble seeing the motivation. Only other thing I can think of is just an area where you can't fill say SS so you are willing to give up a pitcher for a SS and sign a replacement but then again it seems like you're trading into low demand and probably get a pretty bad deal in return.

Cleveland needs guys for the OF and have a huge asset in Carrasco to deal and apparently are willing to do so. San Diego needs infielders and has already listened on Ross. They also need to restock the farm after giving it all away last year. Package Baez and some prospects and you might be in business there. Atlanta very well might shop Teheran as they like their young arms and are building towards competing again likely by 2017. Tampa has a glut of young arms in both the majors and minors and are desperately short of hitters. I also think the White Sox are going to move Quintana because they won't move Sale and really need some help to go along with a very strong pitching staff with more on the way. I don't believe they'd deal with the Cubs because of the PR aspect but they are another example. Oh and CSF77 is right, Harvey will be traded. Do you want another Boras client in your rotation/ I don't know but he doesn't seem to frighten Theo and Jed like he does some FO.

There is a dearth of power hitters in the major league in general and the Cubs have several. I don't believe Rizzo or Schwarber would go but if a team bowled you over? I guess I would never say never. Baez is attractive, a little shaky defense in the NLCS is not going to scare people off. Everyone in baseball saw him change his swing in AAA and see results. If they had been willing to move him at the deadline they could have gotten a pitcher but deadline deals for buyers are pricey. They should see better value offers in the winter. He's a redundancy on the Cubs. You just can't have 4 or 5 guys with 25% K rate in your lineup at the same time. Soler is attractive for his right handed power potential but despite the great arm he's probably better suited for LF or maybe even DH if people are worried about the soft tissue injuries. This is what I mean when I say I think there will be more movement than people think. I'm not interested in hearing "oh you can't trade so and so" because for the right price almost anyone can be had except for Bryant, Russel and likely Rizzo unless, as I said, someone blows you away. They're going to make this team better and they aren't afraid to break some eggs to make an omelette.

 

[ZAN]

You implied trading a position of strength for a position of weakness is futile as you lose depth, and your opponent automatically gets better. Who cares if the opponent also gets better? I didn't say you had to trade with the Cardinals. One of the best fits for the Cubs via trade is the Padres. Are you afraid of the Padres? Yeah it is much wiser to have a bat like Javier Baez on the bench,as opposed to trading him or someone else for pitching that can change the season.

Adding an arm like Mike Leake isn't going to change any narrative surrounding the Cubs. Please name two examples of lower $$ guys worth signing. And don't say Mike Leake, because Kyle Hendricks was better than him all season, and he's one of the guys needing to be pushed back in the rotation.

Player A - 180 IP, 3.95 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP
Player B - 192 IP, 3.70 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP

take your pick. obviously you can look up who is who...but you either want the guy who K's more hitters, or the guy that gives up fewer runs. both have similar walk/whip rates.

 

[Sunbiz1]

These high priced players were developed somewhere else, drafted by someone else, and priced accordingly.

Sustained success is not driven by acquiring FA's, but rather via pitching prospects.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Player A - 180 IP, 3.95 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP
Player B - 192 IP, 3.70 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP

take your pick. obviously you can look up who is who...but you either want the guy who K's more hitters, or the guy that gives up fewer runs. both have similar walk/whip rates.

You didn't include FIP for either guy. Hendricks' was 3.36 to Leake's 4.83. I want no part of Leake. The thing is Hendricks concerns me too but as a number 5 he's fine. You can't look at his numbers at face value because Maddon rarely trusted him after the first two trips through the order. if it wan't for the quick hook his numbers wouldn't be that good. I like Hendricks fine, I think he can eventually be a fringe 3, solid 4. I don't see that from Leake.

 

[ijustposthere]

While I'd love either Price or Grienke, I don't see them signing any of them. I think they'll trade for an arm and sign a mid-rotation arm. As I saw on Twitter, somebody suggested that they trade for Carlos Corrasco and sign John Lackey to a short-term deal. I'd totally do that. That would save them a lot of money.

Why do they need to save money? The Cubs have a 4-5 year window. Spend the money, win a fucking championship. I think one of Cueto, Zimmermann, Greinke, Price, & Gallardo along with Kazmir will make this team dominant. Also, if they're looking to trade a guy, Baez is the odd man out IMO. Russell is much better at short, and Castro looked great at 2nd. Unless they plan on playing Bryant in left and moving Schwarber to catcher. Then Baez can play 3rd.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

I'm against signing either. The price will be too high and in 3-4 years we'll be in big trouble. I'd rather acquire younger SP through trade (Tyson Ross).

 

[payton 34ever]

Greinke would send a huge message to the league, Greinke and Arrieta in the same rotation.. my God

LA had Greinke and Kershaw in the same rotation - hasn't won them anything.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why do they need to save money? The Cubs have a 4-5 year window. Spend the money, win a fucking championship. I think one of Cueto, Zimmermann, Greinke, Price, & Gallardo along with Kazmir will make this team dominant. Also, if they're looking to trade a guy, Baez is the odd man out IMO. Russell is much better at short, and Castro looked great at 2nd. Unless they plan on playing Bryant in left and moving Schwarber to catcher. Then Baez can play 3rd.

it's not about saving money it's about allocating it. You need to tweak your team every year and you don't want a bad contract to hamstring you later on. You've got lester signed, a lot of people think they'll extend Arrieta this year and he'll command something close to 7/$200 million himself. There's talk now that Price is going to get every penny of $230 million and then some. You can get Samardzija or Doug Fister for a lot less and trade for a guy. If you had a choice between a third high priced pitching contract (assuming Arrieta extends) and signing Justin Heyward for 7 years say $175 million, fill your CF hole and keep him out of St. Louis as a bonus while for pitching instead sign a guy in the $80 million range to plug your #3 hole wouldn't that make more sense?

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Why do they need to save money? The Cubs have a 4-5 year window. Spend the money, win a fucking championship. I think one of Cueto, Zimmermann, Greinke, Price, & Gallardo along with Kazmir will make this team dominant. Also, if they're looking to trade a guy, Baez is the odd man out IMO. Russell is much better at short, and Castro looked great at 2nd. Unless they plan on playing Bryant in left and moving Schwarber to catcher. Then Baez can play 3rd.

Theo's plan for sustained success means consistently making the playoffs over a long period of time (think 7 playoff appearances in 10 years). If you make the playoffs 7 times in 10 years, there is a good chance you'll punch through one year.

So the window isn't 4 years -- it's more like 10. Our farm system has a few waves of young talent who will be coming up (Almora, McKinney, Happ, etc). If we sign too many huge, long term deals to older SP's, our window will be reduced from a decade to 2-4 years. That significantly reduces our odds of having the necessary amount of playoff appearances to push us through one year.

Let's say we sign Price to $200M. In 3 years, when we're paying him and Lester a combined $55M and both have ERA's over 4.00+, we'll have an awful lot of dead salary. It's poor a business that rarely works.

It comes down to numbers and what gives us the highest probability of winning a WS. Our moves need to be based on the idea that we'll make the post-season 7 times in the next 10 years.

One of those years, we'll break through.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Theo's plan for sustained success means consistently making the playoffs over a long period of time (think 7 playoff appearances in 10 years). If you make the playoffs 7 times in 10 years, there is a good chance you'll punch through one year.

So the window isn't 4 years -- it's more like 10. Our farm system has a few waves of young talent who will be coming up (Almora, McKinney, Happ, etc). If we sign too many huge, long term deals to older SP's, our window will be reduced from a decade to 2-4 years. That significantly reduces our odds of having the necessary amount of playoff appearances to push us through one year.

Let's say we sign Price to $200M. In 3 years, when we're paying him and Lester a combined $55M and both have ERA's over 4.00+, we'll have an awful lot of dead salary. It's poor a business that rarely works.

It comes down to numbers and what gives us the highest probability of winning a WS. Our moves need to be based on the idea that we'll make the post-season 7 times in the next 10 years.

One of those years, we'll break through.

Exactly and you don't need a staff full of aces either. Ask Washington how that worked out. If the rotation next year is Arrieta, Lester, Samardzija, Tyson Ross and one of Hendricks/Hammel/Turner/Johnson/Edwards that's a pretty damned good staff. When you realize your $500 couch is not suitable to your needs anymore you don't go out and but a $10,000 dollar designer sofa which means you eat ramen noodles for 5 years, you buy a $1,500 couch because that improves your living room exponentially already.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Cleveland needs guys for the OF and have a huge asset in Carrasco to deal and apparently are willing to do so. San Diego needs infielders and has already listened on Ross. They also need to restock the farm after giving it all away last year. Package Baez and some prospects and you might be in business there. Atlanta very well might shop Teheran as they like their young arms and are building towards competing again likely by 2017. Tampa has a glut of young arms in both the majors and minors and are desperately short of hitters. I also think the White Sox are going to move Quintana because they won't move Sale and really need some help to go along with a very strong pitching staff with more on the way. I don't believe they'd deal with the Cubs because of the PR aspect but they are another example. Oh and CSF77 is right, Harvey will be traded. Do you want another Boras client in your rotation/ I don't know but he doesn't seem to frighten Theo and Jed like he does some FO.

There is a dearth of power hitters in the major league in general and the Cubs have several. I don't believe Rizzo or Schwarber would go but if a team bowled you over? I guess I would never say never. Baez is attractive, a little shaky defense in the NLCS is not going to scare people off. Everyone in baseball saw him change his swing in AAA and see results. If they had been willing to move him at the deadline they could have gotten a pitcher but deadline deals for buyers are pricey. They should see better value offers in the winter. He's a redundancy on the Cubs. You just can't have 4 or 5 guys with 25% K rate in your lineup at the same time. Soler is attractive for his right handed power potential but despite the great arm he's probably better suited for LF or maybe even DH if people are worried about the soft tissue injuries. This is what I mean when I say I think there will be more movement than people think. I'm not interested in hearing "oh you can't trade so and so" because for the right price almost anyone can be had except for Bryant, Russel and likely Rizzo unless, as I said, someone blows you away. They're going to make this team better and they aren't afraid to break some eggs to make an omelette.

Soler was the only Cubs hitter locked in this post season. The game isn't about regular season stats. Bryant has way too much swing and miss in clutch situations. As much as I love Bryant, he shouldn't be any less tradeable than Soler.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Soler was the only Cubs hitter locked in this post season. The game isn't about regular season stats. Bryant has way too much swing and miss in clutch situations. As much as I love Bryant, he shouldn't be any less tradeable than Soler.

Fair enough. To me Bryant is nowhere close to a finished product and has the ability to lower his K rate as time goes on as well as improving in other areas. I worry about Soler and the soft tissue injuries but I also agree with you as far as his approach and his play in the playoffs. Again to me it would be all about value and I think Bryant's ceiling is higher than Soler's. Both valuable assets. Honestly the most untouchable player would be Russell followed closely by Schwarber simply because for what each them do, above average SS that can even improve there with strong hitting potential on top and a left handed power bat that adjusts constantly, they would be awfully toughto replace.

 

[CSF77]

These kids need more time in the league to adjust. About it. For thier first time in a play off environment they did fine.

I wouldn't over think it. They need to replace Haren. That should be the main focus. Zimmerman should be the focus via F/A unless Price gives a discount and signs for Lester cash. I see 165 mil as a cap that they goto. Actually this places Greinke into their ballpark also.

Now on CF they should be looking at Almora. Lead off long term Happ. All they have to do is placehold until they are on the team. They have the players already that can do the job.

Now on 2nd needs. Middle relief and 4/5 starter upgrades.

I would let Ramirez and Edwards compete with Hammel and Hendricks. Losers take over MR.

Back end of the pen is good with Rondon,Strop and Grimm. They should retain Richard for LH MR as he is cheaper than Wood. Cahill would be a option if he competed for a starter spot. But I believe he found his calling as a MR spec. If he takes less than 5 mil it would be an investment.

Now trading any youth. No. They are still developing and it is far too early to even consider it.

 

[FrankieLyrical]

If all things were equal, I'd take Greinke, but he's 32 now. Too big of a risk for me. I'd take Price

 

[JZsportsfan]

These high priced players were developed somewhere else, drafted by someone else, and priced accordingly.

Sustained success is not driven by acquiring FA's, but rather via pitching prospects.

Except the Cubs have a lack of high quality pitching prospects, and developing pitching prospects takes quite a bit of time.

The Cubs are ready to win now, they don't have time to waste years waiting for pitching to develop in the farm

You didn't include FIP for either guy. Hendricks' was 3.36 to Leake's 4.83. I want no part of Leake. The thing is Hendricks concerns me too but as a number 5 he's fine. You can't look at his numbers at face value because Maddon rarely trusted him after the first two trips through the order. if it wan't for the quick hook his numbers wouldn't be that good. I like Hendricks fine, I think he can eventually be a fringe 3, solid 4. I don't see that from Leake.

Agreed, also left out ERA+, in which the advantage goes to Hendricks over Leake

** If we are talking MOR arms, I say go via trade, or I would like to see them add Shark again, I think he could get back to being more of a TOR arm if he came back to the North Side.

 

[Sunbiz1]

Except the Cubs have a lack of high quality pitching prospects, and developing pitching prospects takes quite a bit of time.

The Cubs are ready to win now, they don't have time to waste years waiting for pitching to develop in the farm



Agreed, also left out ERA+, in which the advantage goes to Hendricks over Leake

** If we are talking MOR arms, I say go via trade, or I would like to see them add Shark again, I think he could get back to being more of a TOR arm if he came back to the North Side.

Do the Packers sustain a winning formula by over-paying for other teams' work/draft picks/development?.

It is no different in baseball, you add that high priced FA to round out your roster. One FA isn't going to beat the Mets, as the Cubs really could use 2 more starters plus a mid-reliever. If they don't have any prospects, then find better pitching scouts.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Do the Packers sustain a winning formula by over-paying for other teams' work/draft picks/development?.

It is no different in baseball, you add that high priced FA to round out your roster. One FA isn't going to beat the Mets, as the Cubs really could use 2 more starters plus a mid-reliever. If they don't have any prospects, then find better pitching scouts.

We have some of the best scouts in the business. We've been using our top picks on hitters (Bryant, Schwarber, Happ).

 

[Diehardfan]

Soler was the only Cubs hitter locked in this post season. The game isn't about regular season stats. Bryant has way too much swing and miss in clutch situations. As much as I love Bryant, he shouldn't be any less tradeable than Soler.

What turned Soler around was learning the strike zone and laying off the borderline pitches. It appears he put his injury time off to good use by studying film of his ABs. He seemed much more like the guy we saw last year than the guy he was when the season opened. Bryant on the other hand always seemed to be trying to hit with two strikes on him...that's a tough way to go even for a grizzled veteran, for a rookie it's nearly impossible to get any consistency. But he'll learn and he'll get better like most of these guys will.

 

[Parade_Rain]

What turned Soler around was learning the strike zone and laying off the borderline pitches. It appears he put his injury time off to good use by studying film of his ABs. He seemed much more like the guy we saw last year than the guy he was when the season opened. Bryant on the other hand always seemed to be trying to hit with two strikes on him...that's a tough way to go even for a grizzled veteran, for a rookie it's nearly impossible to get any consistency. But he'll learn and he'll get better like most of these guys will.

He learned to lay off hooks low and out of the K zone to be specific. I don't doubt that Bryant will come back after this off season as an improved player. I don't want either of them traded.

 

[DanTown]

What turned Soler around was learning the strike zone and laying off the borderline pitches. It appears he put his injury time off to good use by studying film of his ABs. He seemed much more like the guy we saw last year than the guy he was when the season opened. Bryant on the other hand always seemed to be trying to hit with two strikes on him...that's a tough way to go even for a grizzled veteran, for a rookie it's nearly impossible to get any consistency. But he'll learn and he'll get better like most of these guys will.

Kris Bryant 0 strikes: .456 (10 HR)
Kris Byant 1 strike: .422 (8HR)
Kris Bryant 2 stries: .151 (8HR)

Basically, Kris has to be a better two strike hitter. It's one thing for a guy like say Adam Dunn to be a three outcome guy but Bryant has to much all field hitting ability plus too much speed for him to just keep swinging for the fences. His BABIP is quite high (.378) for a non-speedster but ending 62.5% of two strike AB (not PA) with a strike out is too much swing and miss for me with two strikes. But his bat has range to all parts of the zone so I feel this is something he's going to develop.