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Hawks' Problem Is Chemistry, Not Talent
In his Offseason Game Plan piece on the Blackhawks for tsn.ca, Scott Cullen hits on some really important points, and I suggest all readers here go check it out (then come back).
The Blackhawks have a lot of talent. In fact, when you look at how their talent matches up against other playoff teams, it begs the question: why the two consecutive first round playoff outs?
I'll submit this morning it's all about chemistry.
From 30,000 feet, one issue is purely positional: too much of the Hawks' forward talent is at wing instead of center.
The defense looks close to set and probably pretty good. After the late season addition of Johnny Oduya, the Hawks' GAA plummeted. Oduya took pressure off Duncan Keith the way Brian Campbell once did. Steve Montador, one of only two right-handed shots on the blueline, might not play part or all of the season due to repeated concussions. And overall, the unit is light on physicality.
In net, there appears to be a very solid backup in Ray Emery, and a questionable starter in Corey Crawford.
The other thing is, we might end up looking back on 2011-12 as a sort of transition year. Too much was expected of young, physically immature players like Nick Leddy, Marcus Kruger and Andrew Shaw; but each of those players also showed that they are going to be solid to good, perhaps very good, NHL players—and they gained valuable experience.
I'm going to also keep my rose-colored glasses on when I say that three to four more prospects appear to be on the cusp of making the jump to the NHL: Brandon Saad, Brandon Pirri, Philip Danault and Jimmy Hayes.
But, at some point, "developmental," "transitional" seasons need to give way to seasons where you're in it to win it. While Kruger, Leddy and Shaw are still on their learning curves, it would not be wise to start adding in another 2-3 rookies next year. And for the sake of his team, his fans and maybe his job, Stan Bowman needs to realize that right now.
"Playing the kids" is what you do once you've waved the white flag. It's not how you win Stanley Cups. The grind of the playoffs calls for maturity, smart decisions, guts and patience—the hallmarks of experience.
And that leads to the other chemistry issue: intangibles, character, toughness (physical and mental), putting the team first.
Last year, I wrote a blog on "tough guys" and the positive effect they were having on the Hawks. Two of those tough guys, Jamal Mayers and Emery, have been re-signed. Another "tough" guy added late in the season, was Brandon Bollig. And when I say tough, I allude not just to his pugilism, but to the spirit he seems to bring to the team.
I believe Emery and Mayers were, and Bollig will be, re-signed because a newly empowered Joel Quenneville likes what they bring, on and off the ice. I think he's right. And I've heard specifically, in fact, that Quenneville wants more experience, including possibly in net.
But toughness and character can't be aggregated just on your fourth line and in your backup goaltender.
Toughness means more than fighting, or hitting. It means consistency, self-sacrifice and putting team needs before personal goals and off-ice pursuits.
By these metrics, certain players seem to pass muster. An article earlier in the year cited a Hawk veteran's respect for Marian Hossa's not bringing attention on himself. There are two ways you can look at that: as praise for Hossa, but also perhaps a slam on other players' need for the limelight, literally and figuratively.
Brent Seabrook, Jonathan Toews . . . it's really hard to question their effort and focus.
But, let's face it, up to this point, June 2, Bowman has done nothing to change the roster. It's probably safe to assume he and Quenneville saw enough last year to say Andrew Brunette and Sean O'Donnell don't have enough tread left on the tires to help this season.
So maybe, in replacing those spare parts, some toughness and ability might be added.
But what about the rest of the roster—the consistency, selflessness and physicality of a number of key players?
1) Bryan Bickell
He can be a plus player when he decides to take the body and go to war in the corners. When he doesn't, he's a passenger, and that's been too often the case. Sure, he's cheap. But it's penny-wise and pound foolish to not spend another 500-750K on a more consistent;y physical player.
2) Niklas Hjalmarsson
Every once in a while, and more so in the playoffs, you get a glimpse of the Niklas Kronwall type player Hjalmarsson was projected to be. But more often than not, Hjalmarsson is a solid, positional, but non-physical defenseman on a team that needs him to be more.
3) Michal Frolik
The issue with Frolik is what kind of player is he going to be, a 2nd line scoring winger or a third line checking winger. Frolik seems to be the kind of player whose game begins with defense, and his ideal role is on Dave Bolland's left wing, delivering a consistent forecheck. That said, Frolik, like Hjalmarsson, needs to thrive in that role over 82 regular season games, not just the playoffs.
4) Corey Crawford
At best, Corey Crawford is a solid, positional goaltender who you can win with—provided you play good defense in front of him. But he is not gifted enough to carry you by himself or steal games. And this past season, his struggles keeping form, and therefore keeping his job, pointed to a lack of mental toughness.
5) Viktor Stalberg
Stalberg has shown the ability to occasionally take over games against slower defenses. At times in 2011-12, he appeared poised to emerge as another star winger for the Hawks, and then he would vanish, most notably against the solid positioning and physicality of the Phoenix defense.
6) Patrick Kane
Internet message boards are ablaze with the argument over Kane's value on the ice. His talent is undeniable. However, there is ample evidence that he will disappear when games get very physical, including at times in the playoffs. He seems to need a legitimate power forward on his opposite flank, the kind of top six winger the Hawks really lack right now. The other issue with Kane is the constant and now proven distraction of his off-ice activities.
There are two ways you can address these players: "stay the course," and hope they grow, or cash in on their trade value right now, hopefully filling positional holes and adding character.
There's a lot of NHL "talent" the Hawks coud deal,not to mention a number of reasonably promising prospects for which the Hawks have no place in the NHL right now.
Two areas where the Hawks could be improved immediately—maybe vaulted back into legitimate Cup contention—are 2nd line center and starting goaltender.
Some believe the Hawks don't really need a second line center. Well, I am about to explode that myth.
The Hawks are a puck possession team. And puck possession starts with winning faceoffs, where the Hawks finished 12th in the regular season and 10th out of 16 playoff teams. Bear in mind also, Jonathan Toews was near the league lead in faceoffs. So when you subtract him, the Hawks' FO% takes a swan dive of a cliff. And I bring that up because Toews has now missed games in consecutive seasons recovering from concussions.
The need for a second line center is not only real, it's acute.
Sure, you can "hope" Kruger or "dream" Danault or Mark McNeill can fill that role more effectively this year. But that would likely be repeating the same mistake Bowman made last summer: slotting young players into roles they weren't ready for.
Hawk brass (and fans) need look no further than both conference finals this year to see the value of elite, reliable goaltending. There is an argument that great defense really only then requires adequate goaltending. The problem is, in spite of the post-March 1 improvement in the Hawk defense, Crawford pretty much fell apart in the playoffs. And the fact is, there are better, or potentially better, goalies available this summer.
And toughness. Maybe there are a couple of complementary skaters who can forecheck or clear the front of the net on a consistent basis.
That's the prescription, folks.
Staying the course, hoping (for a second consecutive summer) that 170 pound rookies will fill key roles? That's a recipe for another first round elimination.
Thanks for reading,
JJ
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