Hinrich's Contract Could Cost Us Bosh AND LeBron?

[Fred]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/player?id=4817128

At the 11:03 mark of the latest BS Report, Bill Simmons suggests that the Bulls could land LeBron AND Bosh if we trade Hinrich's contract for expirings. Chad Ford doesn't believe that we could move Hinrich for expirings. At this point, I threw up on my computer.

We'll see what happens, but if the Lakers get Bosh for Bynam, the dream is over anyhow. And Part 2 of "We're going to get all these great free agents" will turn into a nightmare again for my team.

 

[TheStig]

Chad Ford is an idiot. Even if Kirk Hinrich disappears and Salmons opts out, we still don't have enough to sign 2 max deals. With the cap projected at 50-54 mill and max deals starting at least 17 mill we would need to move Deng and Kirk at the least. But Kirk very well could cost us a max fa if salmons doesn't opt out(which he won't).

 

[??? ??????]

Fred wrote:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/player?id=4817128

At the 11:03 mark of the latest BS Report, Bill Simmons suggests that the Bulls could land LeBron AND Bosh if we trade Hinrich's contract for expirings. Chad Ford doesn't believe that we could move Hinrich for expirings. At this point, I threw up on my computer.

We'll see what happens, but if the Lakers get Bosh for Bynam, the dream is over anyhow. And Part 2 of "We're going to get all these great free agents" will turn into a nightmare again for my team.

Don't worry, Kirk Hinrich isn't costing us both Lebron and Bosh.

I just posted the numbers over on Blog a Bull, as some RealGM 2010 Free Agency Primer

Using their $52.5 million cap, you get:

$52.5 – 11.355 – 9 – 5.808 – 5.546 – 3.128 – 1.713 – 1.117 – .473 * 5 = $11.468 million

So we will have $12.468 million in cap space if John Salmons opts into his contract using their projected cap. And that’s assuming we don’t keep our draft picks.

If Salmons opts out, than

$11.468 + $5.808 – .473 = $16.803 million in cap space. Enough to offer a max contract.

It all hinges on Salmons opting out.

But how about this idea. Trade Hinrich, Deng, and Salmons all in the same trade.

The Cavs (Shaquille O'neal) and the Mavericks (Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, and fillers) are two teams that can take on ALL THREE players in the same trade. Both teams are title contenders, and are going to be looking to be looking for a push to put them in title contention.

I think Dallas would do it in particular. Luol Deng replaced Josh Howard in the starting lineup and is an improvement. Hinrich goes in the starting lineup, and you have a Jason Kidd/Kirk Hinrich/Jason Terry three guard rotation. Salmons backs up the three spot, and Deng gets some minutes at power forward when Marion is out of the game.

This would be big.

We'd end up depending on Derrick Rose, Josh Howard, Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson, Taj Gibson, Jannero Pargo, Brad Miller, and Joakim Noah as our main guys for the rest of the year. Our record probably goes in the tank for the rest of the year, and we get a top 5 pick.

We would then have enough money to sign two max free agents.

We would be selling max free agents on the idea of playing with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, James Johnson, and a top 5 pick, AND another max player.

I think a pair of guys like Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh could be sold on playing with each other and that, over our current team.

I think this is how the Bulls should approach the trade deadline this year.

Goal 1: Move either John Salmons or Kirk Hinrich, to ensure we can sign a max free agent.
Goal 2: Move all three of Salmons, Hinrich, and Deng, so we can sign two max free agents.

 

[TheStig]

I like your trades. I don't think the Cavs would go for that deal but the mavs may consider it. But as you wrote before, 16 mill in cap space is not a max contract. Max contracts are going to start at 17 mill.

 

[??? ??????]

TheStig wrote:

I like your trades. I don't think the Cavs would go for that deal but the mavs may consider it. But as you wrote before, 16 mill in cap space is not a max contract. Max contracts are going to start at 17 mill.

Max contracts for the 7 year guys are 30% of the cap, so using the 52.5 million cap, they start at $15.75 million a year.

The only exception I can think of is if we were to sign a guy like Ray Allen or Dirk Nowitzki, who would be 35% of the cap guys, so $18.375 million for them, but I think we're going to be mainly looking at guys in the 30% range (Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Yao Ming, Lebron James, Dwyane Wade).

The other exception is what these guys can sign with their own teams with, as they can have their starting contract as 10.5% raise on their current salary, so a guy like Chris Bosh could have his new deal start at $17.44 million if he were to sign with his own team or do a sign and trade.

I would work on just signing these guys outright, as it will be cheaper.

I think if we sign and trade for these guys, we can send James Johnson to one team, and Taj Gibson to the other, and still be able to sign a #1 overall pick in the draft, while getting two max guys.

While I think we could win the ring in 2010-2011 with ring digging veterans, 2011-2012 would really be the year. Rose would be in his fourth season, Noah in his 5th, and we would have our MLE and Bi-Annual Exceptions to use to add some legitimate talent. Continue sign up those ring digging veterans, and I think we would be a strong championship contender. Even if we were only to end up with Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer, I think we would have an interesting team.

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

Chad Ford is an idiot. Even if Kirk Hinrich disappears and Salmons opts out, we still don't have enough to sign 2 max deals. With the cap projected at 50-54 mill and max deals starting at least 17 mill we would need to move Deng and Kirk at the least. But Kirk very well could cost us a max fa if salmons doesn't opt out(which he won't).

Agree on Ford being an idiot. Agree that the cap projection seems accurate and that means we rely on Salmons opting out or we'll have a million or two short of the max. Disagree on Salmons not opting out: before his recent stretch I'd have agreed with you, but I think he's playing himself to a level where opting out is a win for him.

And ???, if we can make it happen who wouldn't be on board with trading everyone but Rose/Noah for expirings and tanking it up? Only problem is the Mavs would be taking on a ton of salary, and even Cuban isn't a bottomless moneypit these days. Not sure they'd do it.

 

[Shakes]

Also even if Salmons opts in and we make no trades at the deadline, as a last resort we could get max cap space if we were willing to trade away Johnson and/or Gibson to a team with cap space to absorb their contracts, which surely we could do. So I don't think the cap space is the issue, getting the max free agent to come is the issue.

 

[clonetrooper264]

It is my understanding that Hinrich does not make or break us getting a FA (though it would help without his contract), it depends on Salmons opting out. And we wouldn't have enough for 2 FAs regardless.

 

[TheStig]

??? ?????? wrote:

TheStig wrote:

I like your trades. I don't think the Cavs would go for that deal but the mavs may consider it. But as you wrote before, 16 mill in cap space is not a max contract. Max contracts are going to start at 17 mill.

Max contracts for the 7 year guys are 30% of the cap, so using the 52.5 million cap, they start at $15.75 million a year.

The only exception I can think of is if we were to sign a guy like Ray Allen or Dirk Nowitzki, who would be 35% of the cap guys, so $18.375 million for them, but I think we're going to be mainly looking at guys in the 30% range (Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Yao Ming, Lebron James, Dwyane Wade).

The other exception is what these guys can sign with their own teams with, as they can have their starting contract as 10.5% raise on their current salary, so a guy like Chris Bosh could have his new deal start at $17.44 million if he were to sign with his own team or do a sign and trade.

I would work on just signing these guys outright, as it will be cheaper.

I think if we sign and trade for these guys, we can send James Johnson to one team, and Taj Gibson to the other, and still be able to sign a #1 overall pick in the draft, while getting two max guys.

While I think we could win the ring in 2010-2011 with ring digging veterans, 2011-2012 would really be the year. Rose would be in his fourth season, Noah in his 5th, and we would have our MLE and Bi-Annual Exceptions to use to add some legitimate talent. Continue sign up those ring digging veterans, and I think we would be a strong championship contender. Even if we were only to end up with Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer, I think we would have an interesting team.

Thats fine, none of these guys are leaving $2 mill per year and 2.5% a year without forcing a s&t.

 

[TheStig]

You guys are also forgetting that there will be cap holds on this team for a first round pick, second round pick and whatever minimum roster spots hold. We need to deal kirk or have salmons opt out. Preferably Kirk would go so we have some more wiggle room.

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

You guys are also forgetting that there will be cap holds on this team for a first round pick, second round pick and whatever minimum roster spots hold. We need to deal kirk or have salmons opt out. Preferably Kirk would go so we have some more wiggle room.

If it came down to the picks being the difference between signing a FA or not signing a FA, we'd trade the picks for future ones. The cap holds on the picks are a complete non issue.

 

[Diddy1122]

Everyone can fret all they want about this but we still have no idea what any of these FA's are gonna do. The Bulls best option is getting either Bosh, Boozer, Amare or T-Mac in a trade THIS year because there's a very good chance we get no top tier FA in the offseason. 1 for cap reasons, 2 all these FA's can make considerably more with their respective teams & 3 because Miami is the real prize destination for any big FA. Don't be surprised if we end up settling on a player like Al Harrington.

 

[pinkizdead]

Re:Hinrich's Contract Could Cost Us Bosh AND LeBro

if we end up with al, i will punch gar pax dorf in the face. i would have rather kept gordon.

 

[TheStig]

Diddy1122 wrote:

Everyone can fret all they want about this but we still have no idea what any of these FA's are gonna do. The Bulls best option is getting either Bosh, Boozer, Amare or T-Mac in a trade THIS year because there's a very good chance we get no top tier FA in the offseason. 1 for cap reasons, 2 all these FA's can make considerably more with their respective teams & 3 because Miami is the real prize destination for any big FA. Don't be surprised if we end up settling on a player like Al Harrington.

I think we'd be settling for David Lee if we settled for anyone.

 

[TheStig]

Shakes wrote:

TheStig wrote:

You guys are also forgetting that there will be cap holds on this team for a first round pick, second round pick and whatever minimum roster spots hold. We need to deal kirk or have salmons opt out. Preferably Kirk would go so we have some more wiggle room.

If it came down to the picks being the difference between signing a FA or not signing a FA, we'd trade the picks for future ones. The cap holds on the picks are a complete non issue.

Right but there are several more crucial issues like salmons option out, minimum cap holds and sign and trades. I don't see a fa leaving that much on the table.

 

[Shakes]

TheStig wrote:

I don't see a fa leaving that much on the table.

To be honest I don't see them leaving anything on the table. I think if any of the high value target FAs (ie LeBron, Wade, Bosh) are going to move, it'll have to be a sign and trade. They're not going to give up the extra money you can get from signing with their own team (although they may bluff that they would to force the sign and trade).

So ultimately SOME team having max cap space might be all that's required for them to move (so these players have a legit target to say "trade me or I'll sign with those guys"). Unfortunately in this scenario we have to win over not only the FA, but their team with what we're willing to give back.

 

[pinkizdead]

Re:Hinrich's Contract Could Cost Us Bosh AND LeBro

TheStig wrote:

Diddy1122 wrote:

Everyone can fret all they want about this but we still have no idea what any of these FA's are gonna do. The Bulls best option is getting either Bosh, Boozer, Amare or T-Mac in a trade THIS year because there's a very good chance we get no top tier FA in the offseason. 1 for cap reasons, 2 all these FA's can make considerably more with their respective teams & 3 because Miami is the real prize destination for any big FA. Don't be surprised if we end up settling on a player like Al Harrington.

I think we'd be settling for David Lee if we settled for anyone.

if we get david lee, i'm punching gar pax dorf in the face twice.

not only is he a bad defender, he's not a star. he's a rebounder who tips the ball in. he occupies the same position on the floor as noah, and he's really not an all star. In d'Antoni's system there are a lot of rebounds to be had. if we keep noah(and i pray we do), i dont want lee. we need a big who can hit a mid range jumper and defend.

 

[TheStig]

Re:Hinrich's Contract Could Cost Us Bosh AND LeBro

pinkizdead wrote:

TheStig wrote:

Diddy1122 wrote:

Everyone can fret all they want about this but we still have no idea what any of these FA's are gonna do. The Bulls best option is getting either Bosh, Boozer, Amare or T-Mac in a trade THIS year because there's a very good chance we get no top tier FA in the offseason. 1 for cap reasons, 2 all these FA's can make considerably more with their respective teams & 3 because Miami is the real prize destination for any big FA. Don't be surprised if we end up settling on a player like Al Harrington.

I think we'd be settling for David Lee if we settled for anyone.

if we get david lee, i'm punching gar pax dorf in the face twice.

not only is he a bad defender, he's not a star. he's a rebounder who tips the ball in. he occupies the same position on the floor as noah, and he's really not an all star. In d'Antoni's system there are a lot of rebounds to be had. if we keep noah(and i pray we do), i dont want lee. we need a big who can hit a mid range jumper and defend.

I don't want lee either but he would be ok in our system. He can hit the mid range jumper, rebound and his defense is exagerated as bad because he plays on a team where no one else plays D. Deng, Lee and Noah would be the best rebounding front ourt in the league. It wouldn't be so bad if this team could turn Kirks contract into something a year later when he is expiring.

 

[TheStig]

Shakes wrote:

TheStig wrote:

I don't see a fa leaving that much on the table.

To be honest I don't see them leaving anything on the table. I think if any of the high value target FAs (ie LeBron, Wade, Bosh) are going to move, it'll have to be a sign and trade. They're not going to give up the extra money you can get from signing with their own team (although they may bluff that they would to force the sign and trade).

So ultimately SOME team having max cap space might be all that's required for them to move (so these players have a legit target to say "trade me or I'll sign with those guys"). Unfortunately in this scenario we have to win over not only the FA, but their team with what we're willing to give back.

I don't think S&T is the hard part. Remember we don't have to give up equal value if a player says sign me or i'm going to chicago. The problem is, why do they come here? If Deng and Noah keep up their play, rose and salmons continue to come back to life and rose steps it up another level, we will get someone good. But we need Rose to make the allstar team and do more of what he did game 1 against boston in the playoffs. Rose pretty much has to look like Chris Paul JR to get Bron or Bosh here.

 

[houheffna]

if we get david lee, i'm punching gar pax dorf in the face twice.

not only is he a bad defender, he's not a star. he's a rebounder who tips the ball in. he occupies the same position on the floor as noah, and he's really not an all star. In d'Antoni's system there are a lot of rebounds to be had. if we keep noah(and i pray we do), i dont want lee. we need a big who can hit a mid range jumper and defend.

Lee from what I see is the best player on NY right now and would be an improvement over Tyrus. He is not nearly as good as Bosh but he has a jumper out to 18 to 20 feet and he is a good rebounder. I watch his games a lot so I know. He will even post from time to time...but he does not excel at that part of the game which is something that makes him less desirable to me.

We DONT need a big who can hit a mid range jumper and defend...if that is the case Lee can do that. We need a big who can post up and command double teams and hopefully is a skilled passer out of the post...THAT is what the Bulls need. We had PJ Brown already...