How I would approach the offseason

[beckdawg]

The Nolan Arenado Trade Rumors Are Back - Bleacher Nation

I'd keep this one in the back of your mind as we begin the offseason, given the past connections to the Cubs.

www.bleachernation.com

I'm mentioning this article just to bring up one point in it that was kind of an interesting thought. Supposedly the rockies would be willing to forgo prospects for MLB talent. Personally, I think that's still way more than they will get given the way it's being framed but I'll humor the argument....

Let's say the cubs offered them Schwarber. He's on the last year of his rookie deal. I personally still believe in Schwarber but I mean are the cubs *really* gonna sign him long term? He's likely to make around $9 mil next season as well. From colorado's perspective, you are getting something that could be value and not eating a big MLB contract. He could theoretically rake in colorado with his power and if he does hit would be an interesting deadline piece to move likely to an AL team.

 

[CSF77]

The Nolan Arenado Trade Rumors Are Back - Bleacher Nation

I'd keep this one in the back of your mind as we begin the offseason, given the past connections to the Cubs.

www.bleachernation.com

I'm mentioning this article just to bring up one point in it that was kind of an interesting thought. Supposedly the rockies would be willing to forgo prospects for MLB talent. Personally, I think that's still way more than they will get given the way it's being framed but I'll humor the argument....

Let's say the cubs offered them Schwarber. He's on the last year of his rookie deal. I personally still believe in Schwarber but I mean are the cubs *really* gonna sign him long term? He's likely to make around $9 mil next season as well. From colorado's perspective, you are getting something that could be value and not eating a big MLB contract. He could theoretically rake in colorado with his power and if he does hit would be an interesting deadline piece to move likely to an AL team.

Nolan for KB and 2 prospects. They get a expiring deal and some talent. Cubs really stay even but add control.

 

[beckdawg]

That makes no sense to me and I'm someone suggesting the cubs target Arenado. People talk about control like it's inherently a good thing largely because typically it's referring to pre-fa contracts. However, post FA contracts are the other way around. Control is usually a negative not a positive because generally speaking half way through FA deals the player starts to decline. And on top of that, the way FA contracts are structured it is set up in a way that those first couple of years are value and you pay for it on the end of the deal.

That's why I can't see the rockies getting anything of value for Arenado. Do we honestly believe he'd get more than $25 mil a year if he were a FA today? A 32 year old Josh Donaldson hit .246/.352/.449(117 wRC+) and was only able to land a one year deal for $23 mil from Atlanta followed by a 4 year $84 mil deal with a 5th year option. Arenado is coming off a year where he was hurt and hit .253/.303/.434(78 wRC+). He'll be 30 to start next year.

So, if Donaldson who performed better was only worth 5 years $107 mil from who's realistically going to want 6 years and $199 mil for Arenado? I mean even if you want to say Arenado is still in his prime more so than Donaldson, you're talking about $21.4 mil AAV vs $33.2 mil AAV. Colorado has to eat roughly $12 mil annually just to be competitive with a similar 3B and that's before you account for wages being suppressed because of the previous season. And the thing is, if that's the market rate for a guy like Arenado, teams don't trade prospects for market rate because they can just go out and sign similar players.

I wouldn't trade bryant for arenado straight up let alone adding in prospects.

 

[CSF77]

That makes no sense to me and I'm someone suggesting the cubs target Arenado. People talk about control like it's inherently a good thing largely because typically it's referring to pre-fa contracts. However, post FA contracts are the other way around. Control is usually a negative not a positive because generally speaking half way through FA deals the player starts to decline. And on top of that, the way FA contracts are structured it is set up in a way that those first couple of years are value and you pay for it on the end of the deal.

That's why I can't see the rockies getting anything of value for Arenado. Do we honestly believe he'd get more than $25 mil a year if he were a FA today? A 32 year old Josh Donaldson hit .246/.352/.449(117 wRC+) and was only able to land a one year deal for $23 mil from Atlanta followed by a 4 year $84 mil deal with a 5th year option. Arenado is coming off a year where he was hurt and hit .253/.303/.434(78 wRC+). He'll be 30 to start next year.

So, if Donaldson who performed better was only worth 5 years $107 mil from who's realistically going to want 6 years and $199 mil for Arenado? I mean even if you want to say Arenado is still in his prime more so than Donaldson, you're talking about $21.4 mil AAV vs $33.2 mil AAV. Colorado has to eat roughly $12 mil annually just to be competitive with a similar 3B and that's before you account for wages being suppressed because of the previous season. And the thing is, if that's the market rate for a guy like Arenado, teams don't trade prospects for market rate because they can just go out and sign similar players.

I wouldn't trade bryant for arenado straight up let alone adding in prospects.

Each case is different. Verlander was a good thing. Cole a bad thing for Houston. That is why they traded for control to move past Cole leaving.

For a team wanting to shed payroll that trade is good.

Regardless I just don't see it myself. The most likely trade partner for a 3B is LAD and you can expect both KB and NA talked about. I see them rather gaining control vs a rental at 3B. They have SS coming up and the choice to push Lux there. Making 3B stable eases the transition.

This is why I see the Cubs 70% status que. 20% find a trade partner 10% not offer arb. It really depends how scared they are of loosing too much income. It was stated that 40% if all revenues come via box office. Interest dropped and viewership dropped last year also

So there is a real fear going on right now that will force limited seating or another short season. Right now there are 150k new cases every day. Covid is rampid right now and for sure teams are very hesitant to make a major commit until this levels off and subseedes.

So to be honest I can see a status que for the Cubs. They are most likely going internal to replace the pen. 2 of the 3 needed arms are in hand. 1 most likely will be Lester. Jeffress should be resigned. He has earned it.

The whole Bryant thing is if there is a match and LAD is trade location. It really depends if they care about revenues or not. 40% can not be ignored.

 

[CSF77]

@beckdawg

What do you think of bringing back Tommy LaStella? He pretty much was the lead off hitter that we needed post Fowler but got shoved into a pitch hitter by Joe. As a free Agent IMO he might be that lead off type needed which frees up Happ to hit in a RBI slot.

MLBTR on him:


30. Tommy La Stella – Athletics. Two years, $14MM. An eighth round pick of the Braves in 2011 out of Coastal Carolina University, La Stella was traded to the Cubs in November 2014 for Arodys Vizcaino. La Stella posted a 104 wRC+ in 587 plate appearances in his four years with the Cubs, with most chances coming against right-handed pitching. After the ’18 season, the Cubs felt they were better off replacing La Stella with free agent Daniel Descalso. That proved incorrect, as the Angels gave La Stella regular playing time in 2019 and he made the All-Star team before fracturing his right tibia with a foul ball. His strong hitting continued this year, and La Stella was traded to the A’s in late August. He has a 125 wRC+ in 549 plate appearances over the last two years. That includes a 141 mark against right-handed pitching that ranks 18th in all of baseball and fourth among free agents.

La Stella is capable of playing both second and third base. He’d fit with many clubs if the A’s let him go, including all three of his other former teams plus the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Nationals, Yankees, and Tigers.

 

[85Bears]

Personally I'd love seeing LaStella back. Never understood why the hell they got rid of him.

 

[CSF77]

Personally I'd love seeing LaStella back. Never understood why the hell they got rid of him.

I'm pretty sure that it was Joe who didn't want him starting. Notice that he gets traded to the A's right when they start to tank. It was almost like he proved Joe wrong and Joe couldn't wait for him to hit the road.

I'm not really sure why though. Career wise he has had a solid OBA. It makes little sense.

But at 7M per in a platoon with Nico at 2B. You could do worse.

Just status que adding LaStella

1. LaStella 2B
2. Rizzo 1B
3. Contreras C
4. Happ CF
5. Bryant 3B
6. Heyward RF
7. Baez SS
8. Schwarber LF

It kinda changes the dynamic for about 7 mil. Moving Happ into the 4 hole amplifies his .866 OPS.

 

[beckdawg]

@beckdawg

What do you think of bringing back Tommy LaStella? He pretty much was the lead off hitter that we needed post Fowler but got shoved into a pitch hitter by Joe. As a free Agent IMO he might be that lead off type needed which frees up Happ to hit in a RBI slot.

I mean... are you trying to win in 2021? If this is just a reset year I don't really see the point because he's gonna be 32 next year.

 

[CSF77]

I mean... are you trying to win in 2021? If this is just a reset year I don't really see the point because he's gonna be 32 next year.

That is a legit question. I'm pretty sure that they are going to thread the needle this year. IMO when the league gets a better feel on the vax and how much of the seats can be filled then teams will adjust payrolls accordantly.

Best case is 210M worst case is 126 mil IMO. That means running at 60% or 100% of tax break. Which ties to the 40% income loss at the box. IMO a realistic expectation is to spilt it in 1/2 and gauge the year off of that and adjust midseason. 168M IMO would be a safe bet on what they want to spend. Right now they are at 154.3M projection. That means that they can take on 13.7M. Say they sign LaStella (7M) to platoon with Nico at 2B then re promote Almora as the 4th OF. I doubt that they add a 2nd youth arm on top of Alzolay so this is where you look at spending (>7M) on a rental arm. Lester does fall into this IMO at 5M.

So is he worth it? Sure why not. 32 is not grandpaw or anything. He is still in his prime years and this would basically be a player that they could move to 3B and let Nico go full time if needed in July.

I still feel that they should give it one more shot to rebuild trade value of their expiring or just let them play out their deals and attach them with QO's. Trading at low value holds little Merrett.

The way that I look at it is SS will be thick going into 2022. They drop Bryant and Schwarber that is basically 30M freed up. At that point they reset tax and can make a major play to get Lindor for SS. At that point they can see if Javy will accept a deal for 3B or test the market. Attach him with a Q.O. and look at the market for a upg to Bote/ At worst case leave 3B as LaStella/Bote and target a 2B LH hitter to platoon with.

Another option is Aramis Ademan if he doesn't get grabbed in rule V. to platoon 2B with Nico. There is a strong chance that he doesn't get picked up and starts at Iowa. So this could pan out internal.

 

[Probie2429]

The only logical move the Cubs have is to blow it up. Ross is a green manager and is more of a player development type guy right now. Him trying to manage a 200 plus million dollar payroll team that thinks it can win in the playoffs is laughable. Maybe he can do that one day but right now it would be better to let him work on development of new players instead of managing former teammates.

They need to start the same cycle Theo did when he first got here. Cut payroll and start acquiring young controllable talent in droves. You had a 4-6 year window to compete and got 1 WS. The window is closed and Jed clearly knows that. The only guy you’re probably interested in keeping long-term is Rizzo as The Godfather of a young roster. Everyone else can go as far as I’m concerned.

 

[CSF77]

The only logical move the Cubs have is to blow it up. Ross is a green manager and is more of a player development type guy right now. Him trying to manage a 200 plus million dollar payroll team that thinks it can win in the playoffs is laughable. Maybe he can do that one day but right now it would be better to let him work on development of new players instead of managing former teammates.

They need to start the same cycle Theo did when he first got here. Cut payroll and start acquiring young controllable talent in droves. You had a 4-6 year window to compete and got 1 WS. The window is closed and Jed clearly knows that. The only guy you’re probably interested in keeping long-term is Rizzo as The Godfather of a young roster. Everyone else can go as far as I’m concerned.

Not happening.

I see Contreras, Baez and Rizzo signed long term. They are the soul of the team. Jed will most likely cut payroll this season due to covid19 but not for any other reason. As far as the rest goes Happ showed that he can become a core player but he really needs to show that he can bring that level every year. I could see a extension done if he repeats.

The biggest need going forward comes from self development. They really need to focus on targeting talent. The first few years they played it safe and targeted high floor in the draft and targeted high celling in the international draft. The better talent has come from the latter. Alzolay, Marquez, Contreras are a few of these players. Soler, Eloy and Torres also came through those drafts.

Davis is the first high ceiling type taken and Howard looks to be the next. So that change of dynamic needed to happen and the path forward is brighter than the post 2016 clean out of the system.

That said Ross is the perfect guy right now. Joe was too laid back. David holds his players accountable and it proved effective to take basically the same team that missed to winning the division in a unique environment.

 

[Castor76]

One, or more additions, I'd like to see if the Cubs could snipe people from the Dodgers scouting or development team. With Jed taking Theo's spot, maybe see if their head of scouting would be worth and interested in taking Jed former position or however the dominoes have fallen and what slots are open.

LA has had lots of great prospects for the better part of a decade while being competitive and spending like it doesn't matter most years.

 

[greg23]

Couple interesting guys that we're let go that I'd look at targeting

David Dahl
Plays all 3 of spots well
Left handed
Pop and usually hits both sides just fine
In 20's

Carlos Rodon
Left handed
4th/5th type starter but with experience and upside
In 20's

Kevin Pillar
Good defensively in cf and allows for of flexibility
Would be perfectly paired with dahl signing and an OF consisting of
Haap sh
Dahl lh
Pillar rh
Heyward lh

 

[CSF77]

Couple interesting guys that we're let go that I'd look at targeting

David Dahl
Plays all 3 of spots well
Left handed
Pop and usually hits both sides just fine
In 20's

Carlos Rodon
Left handed
4th/5th type starter but with experience and upside
In 20's

Kevin Pillar
Good defensively in cf and allows for of flexibility
Would be perfectly paired with dahl signing and an OF consisting of
Haap sh
Dahl lh
Pillar rh
Heyward lh

The 40 man stands at 34 players. OF depth stands at 2. So I agree that they will add 2 players for the OF. They don't really need a long term solution for the rotation with Marquez close.

I see Jed doing what he has done in the past. Rent and flip.

They need a LF and a SP.

Who is at low value right now but have a track record?

SP: Chris Archer. He would be the ideal target based off his talent and current status. It would be a smart 1 year offer to potentially gain a trade chip.

LF: Schwarber would have been that guy but I'm guessing that Jed didn't trust the odds that Kyle would be woth the remaining and he would have to eat and add to get anything of quality back.

OF is not as clear. It might be smarter to start Bote at 3B and move Bryant to the vacated LF and sell him off as a deadline scenario. The ideal add would be Ha-Seong Kim for 3B but I really doubt that Jed is going to make any investment at this point and will use this time to reload the system. Ya looking it over most have little impact as trade chips or are more long term assets like Jurickson Profar. Or smart signings with little impact in the market like Cameron Maybin.

I see it as those 2 spots are reserved for Davis and Marquez and Jed will use this opportunity to gamble on some flips. And this has worked out very well in the past for him.

Delino DeShields could be another. I'm really not sure about it though. That one is more of a long shot that he takes off vs NL pitching. He has some speed though and not dead weight OBA like Billy Hamilton. So it is a maybe.

 

[greg23]

1 year
2.7 mil for Dahl

Pretty much a steal......both in length and cost.

What is Jed waiting for?

 

[CSF77]

Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi
Free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. is drawing interest from the Phillies, Cubs, and Blue Jays, among other teams, as I mentioned this morning on @MLBNetwork. Bradley, 30, is coming off a season in which he posted a 118 OPS+, his best since 2016. @MLB
6:33 AM · Dec 15, 2020

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[CSF77]

It would be interesting to go down that road. Moving Happ to left would make the D top end. It also allows Jed to sit on Davis longer.

I'm not against it.

 

[CSF77]

Jed has been quoted on having a flex rotation.

This is my opinion:

He will keep Darvish and Hendricks on a 5 day.

Then he will let David go with the match up and you could see piggyback days.

So this could mean 2 locks then Mills and Alozay as the constant. After that you could see 3 guys there to lessen the load due to most starters only getting 60 innings last year.

I am expecting 5 inning starts to be the norm this year.

So if I had to guess Steele, Rea and Miller would piggy backs. Marquez and Abbott in AAA for spot starts.

 

[CSF77]

Jed must have mastered the dumpster dive.

Cubs To Sign Jonathan Holder

The Cubs have agreed to sign right-handed reliever Jonathan Holder to a non-guaranteed contract, Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times …

www.mlbtraderumors.com