How to build this team going forward.

[CSF77]

So short answer.

Bryant's floor is Dawson. Dawson took too big of a hit on D. Bryant at 0 Value D should be in the 25-30 fWAR range over that span. That puts him neat 60 fWAR as a Cub and in the HOF convo wearing Cubs gear.

I would take advantage of his solid D in the OF. Trade Happ. Have Bryant be the starting CF and move him to RF as needed. I wouldn't invest into a OF with Davis in AA right now.

They are going to have to invest into a OF eventually. Heyward has 2 years. Joc 1. Happ 2. Happ has too much swing and miss to his game to stick with. Bryant is a rounded player.

So the should trade Happ. Get a SP back. Add Bote and Williams for Boyd and a add.

Then make Bryant the starting CF. Use Marisnick for days off to Bryant and Heyward.. full platoon in LF with Joc and Duffy.

I would go cheaper on Marisnick in 2022. Market most likely will have that available. Let Davis get a full year at Iowa.

2023 Davis is starting CF Bryant moved to LF.
2024 Yohendrick Pinancho RF Heyward off the roster.

 

[CSF77]

Lets see.

Davis today at Tenn: 4-4 1 walk 1 HR today, Hitting .250 now. It looks like he made the adjustment to AA pitching today. So he is on trajectory for 2023 if not sooner.

Pinango .270/.327/.710 at Myrtle beach. He is a work in progress at age 19. He has 3 more levels to go so 2024 would be the earliest time frame.

 

[CSF77]

What I find funny is that you believe players fall off their rockers after 30.

If that was true then MLB teams would never sign players to deals like they have.

Largest contract extensions in MLB history​

1) Mookie Betts, Dodgers -- 12 years, $365 million
2) Mike Trout, Angels -- 10 years, $360 million
3) Francisco Lindor, Mets -- 10 years, $341 million
4) Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres -- 14 years, $340 million
5) Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins -- 13 years, $325 million
6) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers -- 8 years, $248 million
7) Nolan Arenado, Rockies -- 7 years, $234 million
8) Joey Votto, Reds -- 10 years, $225 million
9) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers -- 7 years, $215 million
10) Derek Jeter, Yankees -- 10 years, $189 million

 

[JP Hochbaum]

What I find funny is that you believe players fall off their rockers after 30.

If that was true then MLB teams would never sign players to deals like they have.

Largest contract extensions in MLB history​

1) Mookie Betts, Dodgers -- 12 years, $365 million
2) Mike Trout, Angels -- 10 years, $360 million
3) Francisco Lindor, Mets -- 10 years, $341 million
4) Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres -- 14 years, $340 million
5) Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins -- 13 years, $325 million
6) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers -- 8 years, $248 million
7) Nolan Arenado, Rockies -- 7 years, $234 million
8) Joey Votto, Reds -- 10 years, $225 million
9) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers -- 7 years, $215 million
10) Derek Jeter, Yankees -- 10 years, $189 million

This list leaves out age of when they signed. Bryant will be 30 when he signs a mega deal. It would be akin to signing Pujols, which was a horrific signing and set the Angels back a decade.

It would have been better to have signed Bryant in 2017, but he never wanted to do that as his goal was to always test free agency.

 

[CSF77]

This list leaves out age of when they signed. Bryant will be 30 when he signs a mega deal. It would be akin to signing Pujols, which was a horrific signing and set the Angels back a decade.

It would have been better to have signed Bryant in 2017, but he never wanted to do that as his goal was to always test free agency.

What it does do is give you a fair based contract that will last until they are pushing 40.

This is what the league needs more of.

The trend was sign. Underpay. Flip the next bill. Then suck for a few years.

Before it was career players. They got by cheap early. Then took on the payday during the 2nd half. The team would end up having that player for 16-20 years and over all it was a sound investment.

Then small market owners decided to play the flip game to large markets. This ended up creating mega farm systems and bloated large markets with out 2 sticks to get a fire burning.

Now the trend has gone back to career players.

Even if Bryant signs a 8/240 deal.

15 years as a Cub.

Paid 63,552,000
Due 240,000,000
AAV: 20,236,000

Same damn thing as what is happening now isn't it.

Well it feels a bit on the underpayment concidering he is at 30 fWAR after 7. Boras don't need to know this part.

 

[knoxville7]

This list leaves out age of when they signed. Bryant will be 30 when he signs a mega deal. It would be akin to signing Pujols, which was a horrific signing and set the Angels back a decade.

It would have been better to have signed Bryant in 2017, but he never wanted to do that as his goal was to always test free agency.

don’t bother. He is already twisting words acting like 30 is when players fall apart. Like you said, it’s about signing a guy to an 8 or 10 year deal when he is already 30 that is the issue. It’s more around age 34 or so that he will fall off

 

[CSF77]

I would limit it to

don’t bother. He is already twisting words acting like 30 is when players fall apart. Like you said, it’s about signing a guy to an 8 or 10 year deal when he is already 30 that is the issue. It’s more around age 34 or so that he will fall off

You are funny

30-37.

Mookie Betts rf
12 years/$365M (2021-32)

• 12 years/$365M (2021-32)
  • signed extension with LA Dodgers 7/22/20
  • $65M signing bonus (paid in annual installments Nov. 1, 2021-35: $5M/year in 2021-32, $2M/year in 2033-34, $1M in 2035)
  • 21:$17.5M, 22:$17.5M, 23:$20M, 24:$25M, 25:$25M, 26:$25M, 27:$25M, 28:$30M, 29:$30M, 30:$30M, 31:$27.5M, 32:$27.5M
  • $115M in salary is deferred ($8M/year of 2021-25 salaries, $10M/year of 2026-27 salaries, $11M/year of 2028-32 salaries)
  • deferred money to be paid each July 1, 2033-44: $8M/year in 2033-37, $10M/year in 2038-39, $11M/year in 2040-44.
  • deferrals reduce present-day value to $306,657,882 (per MLBPA)
  • deal does not include an opt-out provision or a no-trade clause
  • if Betts is traded, deferrals are eliminated & salary is paid as earned
  • perks: hotel suite on road
  • Betts to donate $100,000 annually to club chat
• Dodgers are on the hook til he is 39 at 32M?

So what is the difference?

You being a miser?

Trout paid 37M per til 37?

Yet again you narrative is naive.

Tatis 36+M til 35.

Again yet another player that is going to get paid.

Lindor 34M per til 37.

See a trend here? It is called a standard. The Cubs are a 5 Billion valued team.

Chicago Cubs revenue 2024 | Statista

In 2024, the revenue of the Chicago Cubs amounted to 506 million U.S.

www.statista.com

They are not poor. The notion to act like a pittyful
Shitball team from a shitball city playing small market shenanigans.

Go root for the Rays. They have your style of team. Toss away players and all. No need to give a damn about any of them. Recycle baby.

 

[knoxville7]

Ahhhh yes, because you can list a handful of recent FA signings/extensions means it IS a good idea. Even though every one of the ones you mentioned haven’t hit their mid 30’s yet to see the decline. Let me know how those teams feel about those contracts in about 4 years. Like I have said numerous times, it’s about the drop off in production on the back end of the contract. Yet, this continues to elude your pea size “brane.”

I wish I could talk some “since” into you, but “sense” you fail to grasp this last statement to you, I don’t expect you to comprehend it

 

[CSF77]

Think I will keep him on ignore. Pointless to talk to rocks...


So looking over fangraph:

Hoerner 2B 5 DRS, SS -2. LF -1, CF 0 I would think that he is a 2B by trade.
Wisdom 3B 2 DRS RF 0. He has the arm for RF. I believe his throws have registered 90 MPH.
Duffy 3B 4 DRS LF 0 DRS So he is a plus defender at 3B.
Bryant 3B -3 DRS, 1B -1 DRS, LF 0 DRS, CF 0 DRS, RF -1 DRS So CF has potential for the rest of the year.
Pederson LF -4 DRS, CF 0 DRS, RF -1 DRS. We got him because he had better D in LF? Meh.
Happ LF 2 DRS, CF 0 DRS, RF 0 DRS, 2B 0 DRS He is a LF. Not a CF by trade. He needs to level his uppercut. Looks like he is teeing up vs hitting out there.

Heyward RF -1 DRS Not worth the loss in production anymore.
Marisnick CF -2 DRS He is a PH right now. If he is not hitting it is wasted PA's.

So looking at it over. They get back to relative health.

LF Pederson
CF Bryant
1B Rizzo
RF Wisdom
C Contreras
3B Duffy
2B Hoerner
SS Baez

Call it a day then.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

When we look at typical declines, players start to decline sharply around 33-34. With BRyant being 30, he will start to decline in his 3rd-4th year of an 8 year contract. It just isn't smart to do this. The fact that other teams do this is not a valid argument, it just shows they made bad decisions, and the number of those contracts are actually rare.

Here is a piece from fangraphs showing average war by age:

Players Don’t Become Terrible at 30

It’s a bad time to be a baseball player in your mid-to-late 30s, but sort-of-old players are doing just fine.

blogs.fangraphs.com

The Trout, Tatis and Lindor contracts aren't actually that bad, mostly because they were incredibly long (more than 8 years), and their tail end of the contracts will perhaps be valuable at the time they get there. They were signed at younger ages and thus it made sense.

But paying Bryant at 8 years, assuming you get 3-4 more good years of him, means we will be on the hook for 3-4 years of his decline, which could be replacement level. Now if Bryant had done a 10 year contract in 2017 when he was 26-27, you're talking about 7-8 years of good ball and 2-3 years of average ball. There is a massive difference in value there.

 

[CSF77]

When we look at typical declines, players start to decline sharply around 33-34. With BRyant being 30, he will start to decline in his 3rd-4th year of an 8 year contract. It just isn't smart to do this. The fact that other teams do this is not a valid argument, it just shows they made bad decisions, and the number of those contracts are actually rare.

Here is a piece from fangraphs showing average war by age:

Players Don’t Become Terrible at 30

It’s a bad time to be a baseball player in your mid-to-late 30s, but sort-of-old players are doing just fine.

blogs.fangraphs.com

The Trout, Tatis and Lindor contracts aren't actually that bad, mostly because they were incredibly long (more than 8 years), and their tail end of the contracts will perhaps be valuable at the time they get there. They were signed at younger ages and thus it made sense.

But paying Bryant at 8 years, assuming you get 3-4 more good years of him, means we will be on the hook for 3-4 years of his decline, which could be replacement level. Now if Bryant had done a 10 year contract in 2017 when he was 26-27, you're talking about 7-8 years of good ball and 2-3 years of average ball. There is a massive difference in value there.

I get your point.

It doesn't change the fact that a player signed to the same team will still be paid a total amount by that team. The Cubs got by cheap at first then pay later. Even if he declines below value.

* Notes signed deal

Mike Trout:------Kris Bryant -------A Rod (he has deferred payment going on from both Tex and NYY)

Good part
27: *16M-----------12.9M----------9.2 fWAR 18.5M
28: 36M-----------18.6M-----------6.6 fWAR 16.1M
29 : 35.45M--------19.5M----------9.1 fWAR 21.2M
30: 35.45M-------- *30M----------3.8 fWAR 21.1M
Start of decline
31: 35.45M----------30M----------9.6 fWAR 24.7M
32: 35.45M----------30M----------*5.8 fWAR 29M
33: 35.45M----------30M----------4.1 fWAR 33M
34: 35.45M----------30M----------4 fWAR 33M
35: 35.45M----------30M ----------4 fWAR 32M
Bad part
36: 35.45M----------30M---------- 2.5 fWAR 30M
37: 35.45M----------30M---------- .6fWAR 29M (start of roids ban)
38: 35.45M------------------------------Out of baseball 5,868,582
39:----------------------------------------2.7fWAR 21M
40: ---------------------------------------- -1.1fWAR 20M
41:-----------------------------------------Didn't play 20M

 

[knoxville7]

Schwarber with 3 home runs today so far off Mets pitching. The same Mets pitching that just stuck it to the cubs. He now has 18 home runs on the season…

 

[SilenceS]

Schwarber with 3 home runs today so far off Mets pitching. The same Mets pitching that just stuck it to the cubs. He now has 18 home runs on the season…

Lol who cares? He isnt on the team anymore. He is by no means killing it this year. He is a streaky hitter who is K'ing at 30%. He is following his norms.

 

[knoxville7]

Lol who cares? He isnt on the team anymore. He is by no means killing it this year. He is a streaky hitter who is K'ing at 30%. He is following his norms.

he’s currently tied for 5th in MLB for home runs. He would be tops on our team and just shy of Javy in RBI’s. So I guess nobody on the cubs is killing it this year either. Just pointing out how it was silly to let him go and then turn around and pay Joc more, when he’s not as good as Kyle and K’s a ton too. I was fine with letting Kyle go, but they needed to replace him with a different type of player at least

 

[beckdawg]

he’s currently tied for 5th in MLB for home runs. He would be tops on our team and just shy of Javy in RBI’s. So I guess nobody on the cubs is killing it this year either. Just pointing out how it was silly to let him go and then turn around and pay Joc more, when he’s not as good as Kyle and K’s a ton too. I was fine with letting Kyle go, but they needed to replace him with a different type of player at least

It really doesn't seem like you were fine with letting schwarber go given you keep bringing this up. Joc has hit .284/.325/.541 for a 133 wRC+ since he returned from the IL on may 3rd. Schwarber is playing well over that time frame too hitting .255/.351/.578 for a 148 wRC+. But to sit here and say they are the same type player is just wrong. Over that time frame Joc has a 23.8% k rate and Schwarber has a 27.7% k rate. Their batting average too shows two very different player types. Schwarber is very much a 3 true outcomes type player and always has been. Joc on the other hand is putting considerably more balls in play.

Nearly 30% of Schwarber's hits are homers and 103 of his 220 PAs have ended in a walk, a k, a HBP or an intentional walk. By contrast, 11 of Joc's 55 hits are homers(20%) and 76 of his 217 PAs have ended in those same out comes. The second comparison there is an 11% difference.

None of that means either is "better" or "worse" than the other. But my view for awhile now has been the cubs had too many players like schwarber such that they'd have games where they'd demolish teams when everyone was hitting homers and games where no one could do anything when they didn't. And say what you want but the 2021 cubs have been a better team than the 2020 cubs and that's with them trading away the runner up to the cy young. Joc isn't the problem with the cubs and Schwarber wouldn't make them a world series team.

Also for what it's worth, Joc makes less than what schwarber would have made in arbitration so there's that as well.

 

[knoxville7]

It really doesn't seem like you were fine with letting schwarber go given you keep bringing this up. Joc has hit .284/.325/.541 for a 133 wRC+ since he returned from the IL on may 3rd. Schwarber is playing well over that time frame too hitting .255/.351/.578 for a 148 wRC+. But to sit here and say they are the same type player is just wrong. Over that time frame Joc has a 23.8% k rate and Schwarber has a 27.7% k rate. Their batting average too shows two very different player types. Schwarber is very much a 3 true outcomes type player and always has been. Joc on the other hand is putting considerably more balls in play.

Nearly 30% of Schwarber's hits are homers and 103 of his 220 PAs have ended in a walk, a k, a HBP or an intentional walk. By contrast, 11 of Joc's 55 hits are homers(20%) and 76 of his 217 PAs have ended in those same out comes. The second comparison there is an 11% difference.

None of that means either is "better" or "worse" than the other. But my view for awhile now has been the cubs had too many players like schwarber such that they'd have games where they'd demolish teams when everyone was hitting homers and games where no one could do anything when they didn't. And say what you want but the 2021 cubs have been a better team than the 2020 cubs and that's with them trading away the runner up to the cy young. Joc isn't the problem with the cubs and Schwarber wouldn't make them a world series team.

Also for what it's worth, Joc makes less than what schwarber would have made in arbitration so there's that as well.

similar does not mean exact. They are very similar players. Just because you found some 11% difference does not mean they are not similar. Not sure why that’s difficult to grasp. They both are power hitters that strikeout a lot. Kyle is actually a superior defender, which is just sad for Joc. Like I said, if they wanted to move on from Kyle, okay…but then actually replace him with a truly different style of player…despite you arguing, “jOc PuTs a FeW mOrE bAlLs In pLaY sO dEy ArE dIfFeReNt.” Might as well hit me with, “they are different people so they have to be different ball players.” ? like no kidding they aren’t exactly the same

and bringing up arbitration is pointless. Cubs non tendered kyle. His arb was expected to cost in the 8-9 mil range. Then the cubs non tender kyle and give 7 mil to Joc with a 2.5 mil buyout next year. So essentially they said no to giving Kyle 8-9 mil, only to turn around and give Joc 9.5 mil. Mostly pointing out how terrible the decision making was this past offseason

 

[knoxville7]

Player A - .246 BA .308 OBA .462 Slugging .770 OPS 113+OPS+ 58-13 KtoBB ratio
11 home runs and 30 RBI 0.2 WAR

Player B - .241 BA .325 OBA .518 Slugging
.843 OPS 135+OPS+ 73-25 KtoBB ratio
18 Homeruns and 42 RBI 1.3 WAR

please tell me where player A is better than player B? What does player A do better than player B?

 

[beckdawg]

similar does not mean exact. They are very similar players. Just because you found some 11% difference does not mean they are not similar. Not sure why that’s difficult to grasp. They both are power hitters that strikeout a lot. Kyle is actually a superior defender, which is just sad for Joc. Like I said, if they wanted to move on from Kyle, okay…but then actually replace him with a truly different style of player…despite you arguing, “jOc PuTs a FeW mOrE bAlLs In pLaY sO dEy ArE dIfFeReNt.” Might as well hit me with, “they are different people so they have to be different ball players.” ? like no kidding they aren’t exactly the same

and bringing up arbitration is pointless. Cubs non tendered kyle. His arb was expected to cost in the 8-9 mil range. Then the cubs non tender kyle and give 7 mil to Joc with a 2.5 mil buyout next year. So essentially they said no to giving Kyle 8-9 mil, only to turn around and give Joc 9.5 mil. Mostly pointing out how terrible the decision making was this past offseason

I mean first off, idk where you're getting this $9.5 mil figure. The cubs are paying Joc $4.5 mil this year and a $10 mil mutual option/$2.5 mil buy out for next year. So, worst case he's costing them $7 mil if they choose not to bring him back next season.

Secondly, you mention they both "strike out a lot". The 23.8% k rate Peterson has put up since returning from the IL is better than the league average this season. And that's with the cubs playing him vs LHP which isn't something they routinely did with Schwarber.

Clearly you have a beef with the Joc signing but frankly I don't get it because A) he's making $4.5 mil this season and B) he's playing well. Putting Schwarber on this cubs team would not improve it.

 

[knoxville7]

Now a 0.2 WAR = a guy playing good baseball

And apparently replacing a 0.2 WAR player with a 1.3 WAR player wouldn’t improve the team any

what takes

again, I stated it mostly to point out how Kyle was mashing Mets pitching, the same pitching that just got done mowing the cubs lineup down

 

[JP Hochbaum]

If Kyle and Joc are the same players, then why bring it up? Seems rather silly.