How would you rank Trubisky, Watson, and Mahomes going forward?

[bearmick]

Did you like my rankings?

Post #39

My post #39 is a Remy post.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Nope, just pointing out that drafts are not done by fortune tellers. Do you think Belichick would have taken Redman instead if he was still there in 6?

Historically, the 1st QB taken in a draft is more often than not, not the best one in that draft. I knew that on draft day. Doesn't make taking that shot any easier but in our case definitely necessary.

Drafts are done by those entrusted and paid to make the best choices and see that which many others often miss. Now, again with Belichick, he had Bledsoe entrenched as starter with no plan to move on from him at the time of his first draft with the Pats. They weren't even thinking QB til the tail end of that draft. Of course he wouldn't take Redman or any other QB that high in the draft. Not what the Pats were looking for. From what I've read in the past, that 6th round pick for the Pats couldn't be traded cause it was a compensatory pick. Belichick said they just took the player with the highest value at that spot. His plan was to have him compete with their other 2 backups. Brady started off his first season with the Pats as the 4th string QB and moved up to second by the end of the year. Then took over the following year when Bledsoe got seriously injured. The scenario with the Pats and Brady couldn't be more different than the one with the Bears and Trubisky. That's why I found it so odd you tried to compare the two.

And, no, you cannot say that the 1st QB taken in a draft is, more often than not, not the best one in that draft. It's simply not true. If we were to look at all the drafts from 2001 til now, I'd estimate there would be 5 or less drafts where the top QB taken was not the best, 2017 being one of them.

 

[DanTown]

No. If you can't figure out that you still need to take your best shot for your guy, you haven't been paying attention. It's a draft. You do the best you can and cross your fingers. This idea of either certainty or absolute uncertainty are both off. Like most things, the answer is in the gray but most people can only see in black or white.

On any normal trade value chart, the value of our trade at full value of the 2nd year's pick is a 2nd round pick. That you found some bullshit outlyer that didn't properly factor the effects of the rookie wage scale that was new when he came up with his arbitrary system and is just odd doesn't make it so. If a team could trade 2 3s and a 4 for the 10th pick in the draft, it would happen every year.

Completely unrealistic take on a draft.

This makes no sense. You first say that "who could have known" about Mitch but then in the same sentence say that trading up to get him is a logical choice.

you then complain about using Chase Stuart's draft chart (which is far more recent than the Jimmy Johnson draft chart) to determine pick value and call it some outlier because I didn't use the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the more well known but also vastly older draft chart. You then talk about the rookie wage scale and come to the conclusion that trading multiple picks in today's climate is better for the team trading them, which makes little to no sense considering how valuable draft picks are.

You're doing a horrible job talking out of both sides of your mouth.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

My post #39 is a Remy post.

That's interesting. When I reviewed airtime's post you recommended at #143 it was the right one.

 

[Zerovoltz]

Agreed.

Irrational homers will homer.

I am all for optimism, but pulling ridiculous arguments out of thin air and acting like everyone who doesnt agree is an ass reminds me of the Cutler days.


It was mentioned that haters are the only ones who dont see how important the 3rd down stuff is, and it was also mentioned that those same haters are the ones that discount the trubs 6 td game as "just tampa, nobody else did that though"... that the 6 td game somehow indicates trubs will kick ass in the future.


I was going to play the selective stat game with the 6 td game and what it means for the future, but refrained... but it is too funny to not pull this little tidbit out.

Trubs did have a 6 td game. great day. but what does it mean for the future? Will he be great, or will he be a bust? Lets compare follow up performances with other guys who threw 6+ td games.

Mahomes did it. He followed it up the rest of the season with 293 yards a game, 2.6 tds per game, and 0.4 ints.
Manning did it. He followed it up the rest of the season with 334 yards a game, 3.2 tds per game, and 0.7 ints.

Trubs did it. He followed it up the rest of the season with 227 yards per game, 1.6 tds per game, and 0.9 ints
Flynn did it. with only 5 starts the rest of his career, he put up 227 yards per game, 1.3 tds per game and 0.8 ints.


Point being- the tampa game was great, and if he followed it up with a mahomes or manning type season, there would be plenty to be excited about.
He didnt. His numbers following a great outing turned out to be almost EXACTLY what Matt Flynn achieved after the exact same kind of game.

I dont see anyone on here running around screaming Trubisky is the next Matt Flynn... although as can be seen above it is absolutely an apt comparison at this point.

The kid showed potential this year. Lets see what he does next year before taking a hardline stance on him being flynn or manning.

.....Mahomes threw for 6 TD in a game TWICE this year. He also had 5 other games where he threw for 4 in each game. Trubiksy's 6 TD game is kind of a fluke....he has never thrown for 4 in a game other than the 6 TD game and has only done 3 TD in a game twice in his career.

Trubs can get better...he did improve 2017 to 2018 for sure...and he may well continue to improve...

Something to consider about Mahomes.

In 2017 Kansas Citys offense, with Alex Smith at the helm, ran 985 total plays. In 2018 with Mahomes at the helm, the offense ran 996 total plays.

That is a difference of 11 plays for the whole season...less than 1 per game.

in 2017 KC attempted 33.6 passes per game.
in 2018 KC attempted 36.4 passes per game.

2017 points for 415.
2018 points for 565.

Same group more or less from 17 to 18. Kareem Hunt led the NFL in rushing in 2017. He got "kicked" off the team in 2018.

Running the same number of plays as the year before, you can see how much difference Mahomes made.

I don't know how else to demonstrate how good Mahomes is.

 

[Icculus]

1.) Mahomes then Watson and Trubisky tied.

 

[Black Rainbow]

.....Mahomes threw for 6 TD in a game TWICE this year. He also had 5 other games where he threw for 4 in each game. Trubiksy's 6 TD game is kind of a fluke....he has never thrown for 4 in a game other than the 6 TD game and has only done 3 TD in a game twice in his career.

Trubs can get better...he did improve 2017 to 2018 for sure...and he may well continue to improve...

Something to consider about Mahomes.

In 2017 Kansas Citys offense, with Alex Smith at the helm, ran 985 total plays. In 2018 with Mahomes at the helm, the offense ran 996 total plays.

That is a difference of 11 plays for the whole season...less than 1 per game.

in 2017 KC attempted 33.6 passes per game.
in 2018 KC attempted 36.4 passes per game.

2017 points for 415.
2018 points for 565.

Same group more or less from 17 to 18. Kareem Hunt led the NFL in rushing in 2017. He got "kicked" off the team in 2018.

Running the same number of plays as the year before, you can see how much difference Mahomes made.

I don't know how else to demonstrate how good Mahomes is.

Posters here will argue that scoring points - the stat that directly wins games - is not a "good metric" for evaluating QBs.

 

[Penny Traitor]

Posters here will argue that scoring points - the stat that directly wins games - is not a "good metric" for evaluating QBs.

"Points scored are a team stat. That just means the Chiefs have a better offense than the Bears, which is made moot by their terrible defense because defense wins championships, so the Bears will win a Super Bowl before the Chiefs do because Andy Reid is a fat loser who always chokes in the playoffs."

Did I miss anything???

 

[Bearly]

This makes no sense. You first say that "who could have known" about Mitch but then in the same sentence say that trading up to get him is a logical choice.

you then complain about using Chase Stuart's draft chart (which is far more recent than the Jimmy Johnson draft chart) to determine pick value and call it some outlier because I didn't use the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the more well known but also vastly older draft chart. You then talk about the rookie wage scale and come to the conclusion that trading multiple picks in today's climate is better for the team trading them, which makes little to no sense considering how valuable draft picks are.

You're doing a horrible job talking out of both sides of your mouth.

If it doesn't make sense to you, I must be on the right path. 2 3rds and a 4th for the 10th pick. :lmao:

 

[Black Rainbow]

"Points scored are a team stat. That just means the Chiefs have a better offense than the Bears, which is made moot by their terrible defense because defense wins championships, so the Bears will win a Super Bowl before the Chiefs do because Andy Reid is a fat loser who always chokes in the playoffs."

Did I miss anything???

True, Andy Reid is a choker...and we hired our head coach from that tree.

Their defense sucks...so the Bears hire a defensive position coach from KC.

And I would add that points scored IS a team stat, but it all starts with the QB and probably nothing effects that more than QB play in the modern NFL.

 

[Bearly]

Has anyone said Trubs > Mahomes in this thread or are you guys building windmills to attack in the silly season.

 

[playthrough2001]

True, Andy Reid is a choker...and we hired our head coach from that tree.

Their defense sucks...so the Bears hire a defensive position coach from KC.

And I would add that points scored IS a team stat, but it all starts with the QB and probably nothing effects that more than QB play in the modern NFL.

Doug Pederson is from the Reid tree too and won the Super Bowl last season. Since Bears were facing Pederson, even you can understand a loss for that coaching tree was unavoidable.

 

[playthrough2001]

Has anyone said Trubs > Mahomes in this thread or are you guys building windmills to attack in the silly season.

Absolutely nobody has regarding Mahomes and anyone that watched Watson and Mitch last season knows their play and team results were almost identical.

 

[airtime143]

Has anyone said Trubs > Mahomes in this thread or are you guys building windmills to attack in the silly season.

No- just the usual homer crap regarding the watson/trubs talk.

Recovering from injuries matters for my guy, should not effect other guy.
surrounding team impacts my guys play, shouldnt impact the other guy.
Stats dont matter... the only stat that does happens to be the one stat that my guy leads in, no matter how obscure.

It is fun watching people go to ridiculous lengths via convoluted logic to declare superiority at this moment and then act like that is the be all end all of their careers.

 

[Bearly]

No- just the usual homer crap regarding the watson/trubs talk.

Recovering from injuries matters for my guy, should not effect other guy.
surrounding team impacts my guys play, shouldnt impact the other guy.
Stats dont matter... the only stat that does happens to be the one stat that my guy leads in, no matter how obscure.

It is fun watching people go to ridiculous lengths via convoluted logic to declare superiority at this moment and then act like that is the be all end all of their careers.

Of course it counts and Watson is better until he isn't. I'm guessing/hoping that's next year and beyond.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I think the elephant-in-the-room here is that we all know the Rams win that Super Bowl if Trubisky is their QB. So Trubisky>Mahomes.

 

[Bearly]

This made me smile.

 

[benplace]

This thread...

 

[run and shoot]

Quote Originally Posted by run and shoot View Post
How much did lack of pass protection have to do with the 24th? That's how Watson got the job...Savage couldn't avoid the lack of pass protection

Savage couldn't avoid the lack of pass protection

Also...how do u know Watson wasn't told to try and wait for the play to develop?





What I'm saying is pass protection has always been a problem. That's why Watson (with scrambling ability) took over for Tom Savage (do u remember Savage? Do u remember the problems he had with pass protection & sacks?)

Watson took over for Savage because he was drafted to be the future of the Texans and Savage is simply not a starting caliber QB. What’s the point of keeping Watson on the bench? You make it sound like the Texans were actually planning to go through the season with Savage as their qb.

Of course ... Watson would've eventually started, but the discussion was centered on the lack pass protection for both Qbs.