If You Really Want To "Go All In"

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

What you were laughing at is not the point but that's beside the point right now. But with this list...you've got to be kidding me. *Note: There is a TL;DR line at the bottom for the lazy ones.

The Red Sox? No, I don't think we're better than them. They've added Carl Crawford, they've gotten a rejuvenated Josh Beckett back, etc. I hate them, but from the looks of it they're better right now.

The Yankees? I believe so. That lineup had problems up and down it last season, their rotation isn't anywhere near what it was during that championship season. Our rotation>>>theirs. They're getting older as well.

Yea, the Yanks had so many problems with that lineup that even with down years from their big hitters, they still finished second in the majors in OPS. And I think if they have a rebound year from Burnett, Hughes keeps up his development, and Garcia can pitch similarly to last year, I don't think their rotation is that far behind ours. They also have much better defense as well and a similar pen imo.

The Rangers? Their lineup is better than ours top to bottom I'll give you that. But their rotation? C'mon son, they lost Cliff Lee which was the only ace they had last season. You saw what pitching did to them against the Giants, and I believe it came down to us & then our rotation would outlast theirs. Pitching wise South Side>>>>Austin and that's what it'll come down to. But they're also the reason I put them at third, because of their weak division they'll be a force outside of it.

They have Wilson and Lewis, a pretty good 1-2 punch, and both showed glimpses last year of being aces in the future. They also have Hunter who pitched pretty well last year, Holland who has some nice upside who pitched solid last year when healthy, and then they have Feliz who if he can throw his new changeup decently then he will be nasty out of the rotation. Again, I know our rotation is better but their rotation can definitely surprise people. They also have a better pen, even without Feliz, and a much better defensive squad.

The Rays? Losing Carl Crawford was a huge blow to the team. I don't see B.J. Upton bouncing back from a somewhat down season last season. Evan can't do it all. Their rotation isn't as good as ours either, though I'd take David Price over 4 of our 5 pitchers any day but he can't pitch every day.

Crawford was a huge loss, but Jennings looks like a Crawford 2.0 basically and shouldn't be in AAA for too long to start the year. But our offense should be better. The rotation has a ton of upside. Price is better than any of our starters. Shields has a good track record who was on the wrong side of luck last year (.341 BABIP/.308 career) so that will come down and so will his ERA. Niemann is a solid middle of the rotation starter. Davis had a solid rookie year and should improve. Hellboy was good in his debut and could be one of the best 5th starters in the league this year. Wouldn't be surprised if this rotation is better than ours in 2011. They're also a damn good defensive team who also has a better pen.

:shot: At those last four teams you listed. You must not watch enough baseball or you're just a pessimist because that list is ridiculous lol. I don't think you give them enough credit. Look at that lineup, look at that pitching rotation. Do you seriously think the A's will contend this season? No. They'll finish third in that division behind Anaheim and Texas.

The A's have some of the best pitching in baseball with one of the best defensive squads in baseball with a much improved offense. What is not to like about that team? I think they're a darkhorse candidate for the AL West.

The Twins? We almost caught up to them last season with a depleted lineup (before we got Jackson) and an offense that wasn't as good as this one looks to be. I'm sure you remember those two 10 game in streaks and the 9 game win streak we went on last season. The team this season is better than that one, so why shouldn't we do better?

I just listed them because they always find ways to win and are still a good team who we will probably go down to the wire with for the division.

The Tigers? Injuries hurt them last season yes, but lets not forget aside from Miguel Cabrera, 313 has a pretty old team. They may stay in the mix for the first half of the season but I don't see them putting up a fight after the all star break.

They have a pretty solid offense. They have a 1-2 punch in the rotation that can be as good as any in baseball which will carry the rotation and a decent pen. Now that I look at it more, the Tigers shouldn't finish better than us but there is still a chance.

Offense wise I don't think I'm overrating it. I know you saw what Paulie did last season. If Carlos can stay healthy you know what he can do. Alex Rios with one year under his belt with the hitting coach should bounce back. Gordon in his 3rd season should be ready to round out and stay consistent. Adam Dunn won't hit for average but his RBI & homers should be sky high this season. Alexei's bat will only get better. The list goes on and on.

Paulie ain't gunna hit like last year, come on man. If you think he will then you will just be disappointed. He had a career year at the age of 34. History tells us that 34 year old 1B with career years almost never replicate them. He also tied a career high in BABIP, so I doubt he hits over .300 again.

Bullpen wise you're right, it's shaky atm, but it is what it is. I think we'll figure that part out.
I hope so, I just hope whoever ends up as our closer actually pans out and does well.

Defense wise I think we will be a lot stronger this season. We were consistently inconsistent last season but during the aforementioned streaks we played great defense and that's why we won.
I agree, Morel is a very good defender at third so right there we already improved a bit. But we're still a below average defensive team as long as TCQ is plodding around in RF and Dunn is getting spot starts at 1B and maybe in the OF. I also think that PK is declining at 1B. All he is good at is picking balls out of the dirt, which any 1B is good at really, and I don't think he's been a consistently good defender since about 2005-2006. Doesn't help that he has no hops at all either haha.

*TL;DR: I've listed reasons why we're better than the teams you've listed, and we still come out at the top or at least very close to it like I said before.

gnvnvnvbn

 

[Skills]

Yea, the Yanks had so many problems with that lineup that even with down years from their big hitters, they still finished second in the majors in OPS. And I think if they have a rebound year from Burnett, Hughes keeps up his development, and Garcia can pitch similarly to last year, I don't think their rotation is that far behind ours. They also have much better defense as well and a similar pen imo.

Let's be honest for a second, if Boston & Tampa Bay both finished the seasons how they started after the all star break NY wouldn't have won that division. Sure that says more about those other two than it does NY, but I can't sit here and act like the only reason they came back in that division is because they wanted to. As far as AJ goes, I see him staying the same way he was last season. Nothing points to him having a better season this season. Freddy won't be the same either. They're both old and still aging, a rotation like that won't last long. I'd bet any amount of money on that. Much better defense? No, they don't. They were ranked 14th in the AL last season, the White Sox sitting at 9th.

They have Wilson and Lewis, a pretty good 1-2 punch, and both showed glimpses last year of being aces in the future. They also have Hunter who pitched pretty well last year, Holland who has some nice upside who pitched solid last year when healthy, and then they have Feliz who if he can throw his new changeup decently then he will be nasty out of the rotation. Again, I know our rotation is better but their rotation can definitely surprise people. They also have a better pen, even without Feliz, and a much better defensive squad.

All of the names you listed don't spook me in the least bit come playoff time. There's a reason Texas went out and got Cliff Lee last season. Neftali Feliz in the pen is lights out, I'll give you that. But if the bullpen has to bail out the back end of your rotation every fourth and fifth game they'll be gassed out come playoff time. I never said they wouldn't win games, I said they'd win the division. The post season run they lad last season I don't count on seeing this time around because they don't have that ace...yet. Counting on surprises works both ways, remember that.

Crawford was a huge loss, but Jennings looks like a Crawford 2.0 basically and shouldn't be in AAA for too long to start the year. But our offense should be better. The rotation has a ton of upside. Price is better than any of our starters. Shields has a good track record who was on the wrong side of luck last year (.341 BABIP/.308 career) so that will come down and so will his ERA. Niemann is a solid middle of the rotation starter. Davis had a solid rookie year and should improve. Hellboy was good in his debut and could be one of the best 5th starters in the league this year. Wouldn't be surprised if this rotation is better than ours in 2011. They're also a damn good defensive team who also has a better pen.

A rookie can't and won't replace what Crawford was to the Rays no matter how good he looks/is. I said I'd take David Price over 4 of our 5 (call me crazy but I'd still take a healthy Jake over him). Our rotation compared to theirs is contingent on whether we can stay healthy or not. If all of our 5 are good to go, and in the event that one goes down Chris Sale can come in and at least throw strikes, I see our rotation being better than theirs. They also don't have a better defense than the White Sox do. They were ranked 12th last season.

The A's have some of the best pitching in baseball with one of the best defensive squads in baseball with a much improved offense. What is not to like about that team? I think they're a darkhorse candidate for the AL West.

The problem with the A's never was their pitching, they can't score. Seems like a recurring theme, you've been overrating everyone's defense because Oakland was behind us at 10th last season as well. What's not to like about that team? Well, they were ranked 11th in the AL with 663 runs and a pathetic .256 team average. They're not a dark horse to do anything unless they figure out how to get some runs across the plate.

I just listed them because they always find ways to win and are still a good team who we will probably go down to the wire with for the division.

You're right, the Twins are always there but my point wasn't that we'd be leaving them in the dust. The chase will be reversed this season if we do what we have to do in the first half.

They have a pretty solid offense. They have a 1-2 punch in the rotation that can be as good as any in baseball which will carry the rotation and a decent pen. Now that I look at it more, the Tigers shouldn't finish better than us but there is still a chance.

Offensively they were right behind us last season, but that was without Carlos and without Adam. It won't go down like that this season. Pitching wise we're ranked 8th and they were ranked 12th last season with a 4.30 ERA. That's not going to carry anything, that will sink the ship. Their pen was ranked 8th last season, the White Sox at 5th. Their pen had a 3.96 ERA, ours 3.73. I don't like saying there's no chance, but there's little at this point.

Paulie ain't gunna hit like last year, come on man. If you think he will then you will just be disappointed. He had a career year at the age of 34. History tells us that 34 year old 1B with career years almost never replicate them. He also tied a career high in BABIP, so I doubt he hits over .300 again.

Same story I keep hearing from everyone. It's pointless to bring stats into it when they won't matter this season we'll just have to wait and see.

I agree, Morel is a very good defender at third so right there we already improved a bit. But we're still a below average defensive team as long as TCQ is plodding around in RF and Dunn is getting spot starts at 1B and maybe in the OF. I also think that PK is declining at 1B. All he is good at is picking balls out of the dirt, which any 1B is good at really, and I don't think he's been a consistently good defender since about 2005-2006. Doesn't help that he has no hops at all either haha.

:nope: What have you been watching these past 5 years? The only time Paulie hasn't been in the top 6 in the AL was 08. He was ranked 3rd in 09. Declining? Maybe, but it isn't nearly as bad as you made it look. He's one of the more underrated players at first base.

Source for stats - 2010 MLB Team and Player Stats - Major League Baseball - ESPN

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

Let's be honest for a second, if Boston & Tampa Bay both finished the seasons how they started after the all star break NY wouldn't have won that division. Sure that says more about those other two than it does NY, but I can't sit here and act like the only reason they came back in that division is because they wanted to. As far as AJ goes, I see him staying the same way he was last season. Nothing points to him having a better season this season. Freddy won't be the same either. They're both old and still aging, a rotation like that won't last long. I'd bet any amount of money on that. Much better defense? No, they don't. They were ranked 14th in the AL last season, the White Sox sitting at 9th.

Nothing pointed to Bautista hitting 54 HR's in 2010. AJ has a bulldog mentality, if anyone can turn it around, he's one of the guys I'd bet could do it. What points to Garcia not being the same as last year? 2010 is certainly a repeatable year for him. And FP% is a pretty irrelevant stat. Who would you rather have, a defender who gets to more balls and turns more plays into outs while committing a few more errors (Andrus) or a defender who gets to less balls, converts less BIP into outs, and makes less errors. I'm pretty sure most people would pick the more rangy player. Thus where UZR comes into play. The Yankees placed 11th in baseball in UZR (15.3) while the White Sox ranked 7th to last place in baseball at -32.2. That's about a 4.7 win swing.

All of the names you listed don't spook me in the least bit come playoff time. There's a reason Texas went out and got Cliff Lee last season. Neftali Feliz in the pen is lights out, I'll give you that. But if the bullpen has to bail out the back end of your rotation every fourth and fifth game they'll be gassed out come playoff time. I never said they wouldn't win games, I said they'd win the division. The post season run they lad last season I don't count on seeing this time around because they don't have that ace...yet. Counting on surprises works both ways, remember that.

I don't think you're the one they're trying to spook...

A rookie can't and won't replace what Crawford was to the Rays no matter how good he looks/is. I said I'd take David Price over 4 of our 5 (call me crazy but I'd still take a healthy Jake over him). Our rotation compared to theirs is contingent on whether we can stay healthy or not. If all of our 5 are good to go, and in the event that one goes down Chris Sale can come in and at least throw strikes, I see our rotation being better than theirs. They also don't have a better defense than the White Sox do. They were ranked 12th last season.

I never said he would replace him right now but rather his tools are basically the same now as when Crawford was 23, with less power. And I will call you crazy for taking Peavy over Price. Peavy hasn't pitched like Price has since 2007 when he was pitching in PETCO in a weak ass offensive division. Pass.

The problem with the A's never was their pitching, they can't score. Seems like a recurring theme, you've been overrating everyone's defense because Oakland was behind us at 10th last season as well. What's not to like about that team? Well, they were ranked 11th in the AL with 663 runs and a pathetic .256 team average. They're not a dark horse to do anything unless they figure out how to get some runs across the plate.

Like I said, they have quite an improve offense. Adding DeJesus, Willingham, and Matsui is going to boost that lineup quite a bit.

You're right, the Twins are always there but my point wasn't that we'd be leaving them in the dust. The chase will be reversed this season if we do what we have to do in the first half.

Offensively they were right behind us last season, but that was without Carlos and without Adam. It won't go down like that this season. Pitching wise we're ranked 8th and they were ranked 12th last season with a 4.30 ERA. That's not going to carry anything, that will sink the ship. Their pen was ranked 8th last season, the White Sox at 5th. Their pen had a 3.96 ERA, ours 3.73. I don't like saying there's no chance, but there's little at this point.

Same story I keep hearing from everyone. It's pointless to bring stats into it when they won't matter this season we'll just have to wait and see.

:nope: What have you been watching these past 5 years? The only time Paulie hasn't been in the top 6 in the AL was 08. He was ranked 3rd in 09. Declining? Maybe, but it isn't nearly as bad as you made it look. He's one of the more underrated players at first base.

I've been watching...a declining Paulie. :shot:

Source for stats - 2010 MLB Team and Player Stats - Major League Baseball - ESPN

hkkjk

Feels like I'm listening to Joe Morgan, smh...

 

[Skills]

Nothing pointed to Bautista hitting 54 HR's in 2010. AJ has a bulldog mentality, if anyone can turn it around, he's one of the guys I'd bet could do it. What points to Garcia not being the same as last year? 2010 is certainly a repeatable year for him. And FP% is a pretty irrelevant stat. Who would you rather have, a defender who gets to more balls and turns more plays into outs while committing a few more errors (Andrus) or a defender who gets to less balls, converts less BIP into outs, and makes less errors. I'm pretty sure most people would pick the more rangy player. Thus where UZR comes into play. The Yankees placed 11th in baseball in UZR (15.3) while the White Sox ranked 7th to last place in baseball at -32.2. That's about a 4.7 win swing.

Pitching and hitting are two completely separate entities. Tell me how many times you've seen a pitcher throw for a +4 ERA one season then a +5 ERA the next and bounce back. I'm interested to see what you have because nobody comes to mind.

And FP% is a pretty irrelevant stat? Um, let me remind you that you're the one who said defense this defense that, not me. Every single team you brought up about defense ended up being behind us, so if it's that irrelevant that's your fault for bringing it up not mine. Regardless of what stat you want to highlight, overall the teams you listed weren't better than us defensively. Not sure why you're not willing to give them their due credit but whatevs.

I never said he would replace him right now but rather his tools are basically the same now as when Crawford was 23, with less power. And I will call you crazy for taking Peavy over Price. Peavy hasn't pitched like Price has since 2007 when he was pitching in PETCO in a weak ass offensive division. Pass.

Opinions being irrelevant. Let's keep it factual...

Like I said, they have quite an improve offense. Adding DeJesus, Willingham, and Matsui is going to boost that lineup quite a bit.

DeJesus - 5 homers, 37 ribbies. Not helping them get across the plate. Willingham - 16 homers, 56 ribbies with a poor average. Not doing much. An ever aging Matsui? Give me a break. Trying to find an upside in that team is like trying to find Charlie Sheen in rehab, not happening.

I've been watching...a declining Paulie. :shot:

I see I was right about the pessimistic trait I saw earlier...

To that last line...*yawns*

 

[DewsSox79]

opcorn:

 

[Got teeth? Keith doesn't.]

Pitching and hitting are two completely separate entities. Tell me how many times you've seen a pitcher throw for a +4 ERA one season then a +5 ERA the next and bounce back. I'm interested to see what you have because nobody comes to mind.

Livan Hernandez, Carl Pavano, Kevin Millwood, Paul Maholm, and Jamie Moyer have done it in the past few seasons. Most people will tell you that Shields has better stuff than all of those pitchers when they did it and all but Maholm were older when they did it. I'm sure there is more.

And FP% is a pretty irrelevant stat? Um, let me remind you that you're the one who said defense this defense that, not me. Every single team you brought up about defense ended up being behind us, so if it's that irrelevant that's your fault for bringing it up not mine. Regardless of what stat you want to highlight, overall the teams you listed weren't better than us defensively. Not sure why you're not willing to give them their due credit but whatevs.

Defense this, defense that, because defense is just as big a part of winning as the offense. When you rob a home run or hit a home run, you're still making the same impact in a game. I don't think you are understanding what I'm getting at (or you just don't know what UZR is?). I'm saying that FP% is pretty irrelevant when you have much more advanced stats like UZR to go off of. Hence my reasoning towards why FP% can be very misleading.

Opinions being irrelevant. Let's keep it factual...

This is a message board, am I correct? I thought message boards were basically 75% opinion-driven.

DeJesus - 5 homers, 37 ribbies. Not helping them get across the plate. Willingham - 16 homers, 56 ribbies with a poor average. Not doing much. An ever aging Matsui? Give me a break. Trying to find an upside in that team is like trying to find Charlie Sheen in rehab, not happening.

How cute, using one year sample sizes. Not only does he improve their already top notch defense, he's also shown glimpses of an All-Star bat. Didn't he just hit .318/.384/.443 this past season? Oh no! But he only managed 37 RBI's in 352 at bats while spending a third of his season hitting leadoff for the Royals! Damn, he sucks! The other 2/3rd of a season was spent hitting 3rd, where he it .358/.418/.437. Clearly not his fault for not driving runners in while hitting 3rd.

Willingham is a career .265/.367/.475 hitter. Yea, what a slacker on a poor Nats team.

Matsui is still a solid power hitter with good plate discipline. Nothing wrong with him as your DH.

I don't know why you're faulting peoples counting stats on poor teams...

I see I was right about the pessimistic trait I saw earlier...

To that last line...*yawns*

ffgfgfg

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

opcorn:

moar butterz?

 

[Skills]

Livan Hernandez, Carl Pavano, Kevin Millwood, Paul Maholm, and Jamie Moyer have done it in the past few seasons. Most people will tell you that Shields has better stuff than all of those pitchers when they did it and all but Maholm were older when they did it. I'm sure there is more.

Livan Hernandez - 6+ seasons with a +5 (up to +8) ERA and one season with a 3.66 (this one being the most recent). Since later in this post you talked about "1 year samples" I'm going to use the same argument against you. This dude hasn't bounced back from anything yet.

Carl Pavano - 6+ seasons with a +4 ERA and one season with a 3.75. I may have to give you this one because he did have a good season up in Minnesota last season. BUT, let's see if he can show some consistency. You talk about past few seasons (plural) so you have to look at more than one season.

Kevin Millwood - 5.16, 5.07, 3.67, His ERA was 5.10 last season. 'Nuff said.

Paul Maholm - 5.02, 3.71, 4.44, His ERA was also 5.10 last season. 'Nuff said.

Jamie Moyer - Dude's been pitching for forever, still has an ERA close to 5 in his past few seasons. Bounce back? Not one I've seen.

Nice list, no dice though.

Defense this, defense that, because defense is just as big a part of winning as the offense. When you rob a home run or hit a home run, you're still making the same impact in a game. I don't think you are understanding what I'm getting at (or you just don't know what UZR is?). I'm saying that FP% is pretty irrelevant when you have much more advanced stats like UZR to go off of. Hence my reasoning towards why FP% can be very misleading.

I know what UZR means. I think you're not understanding my point though. FP% was not the only thing that was listed when I brought up those defensive stats. They were collective, meaning every stat was considered to rank the defenses. I said if you wanted highlight one stat your point would be relevant, but the defenses were ranked overall so your point about UZR is now irrelevant.

This is a message board, am I correct? I thought message boards were basically 75% opinion-driven.

In the context of this argument it shouldn't be. I'm using almost all numbers, and so are you now, hence my reasoning behind keeping it that way since numbers don't lie.

How cute, using one year sample sizes. Not only does he improve their already top notch defense, he's also shown glimpses of an All-Star bat. Didn't he just hit .318/.384/.443 this past season? Oh no! But he only managed 37 RBI's in 352 at bats while spending a third of his season hitting leadoff for the Royals! Damn, he sucks! The other 2/3rd of a season was spent hitting 3rd, where he it .358/.418/.437. Clearly not his fault for not driving runners in while hitting 3rd.

What's the point of going back further if the stats are pretty much the same? 2006 stats aren't really relevant to 2010's because it's not about what you did then it's about what you can do now. At least that's how I see it.

LOL, and here you go with this "top notch defense" stuff again. Since one season wasn't enough, fine I'll go back six (AL, not MLB).

05 - Overall 12th

06 - Overall 13th

07 - Overall 11th

08 - Overall 7th (Hooray! They cracked the top 10!)

09 - Overall 4th (OMG, they're amazing!)

10 - Overall 10th (welp, there goes the defense)
​

So, 2 out of 6 they cracked the top ten. 33% over the years makes you "top notch" - ok chief if you say so. It's obvious we have a different opinion on what a "top notch" defense is...

Willingham is a career .265/.367/.475 hitter. Yea, what a slacker on a poor Nats team.

Bringing up averages isn't doing much to help your cause. Getting on base means absolutely nothing if you can't cross the plate or get your teammates across. He hasn't had a +70 ribbie season in 4 years. You see that changing? I don't.

Matsui is still a solid power hitter with good plate discipline. Nothing wrong with him as your DH.

Matsui has been on the decline for years now, don't expect him to pep up in that ballpark on that team.

I don't know why you're faulting peoples counting stats on poor teams...

I don't know why you're bringing up team stats when I talked about what the A's did offensively already. They can't score, what's so hard to understand about that?