If You Were The Cubs

[Rice Cube]

...would you bid on Yu Darvish?

The Yankees aren’t afraid to go after Yu Darvish | HardballTalk

The Yankees might. There have been a lot of Japanese pitching busts over the years, but Darvish seems to have some awesome potential. Plus he's going to be expensive.

 

[Rice Cube]

This can also be used for other stuff I guess. But the topic du jour in my mind is whether the new GM will bother trying to acquire Yu Darvish, who is about to enter his prime.

 

[Rice Cube]

Yu Darvish Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

To be taken with a grain of salt as Japanese players are obviously just AAAA-caliber and so his numbers in MLB are not likely to be as good. Also don't know how big Japanese parks are so that would likely suppress his homer rate some.

 

[poodski]

If you were the Cubs...

Honestly no. He might be great but I wouldn't waste the money on it.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Give him a shot..

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

japanese players are hard to prospect sometimes because their numbers are a bit distorted by a number of factors...

fukudome immediately comes to mind

 

[TheCubfather]

horry kow no. dont want another fukd homie.

 

[2SeamHeat]

It's going to cost like $100MM just to be able to negotiate with him. Then another $50-75M on top of it. Do you really think any pitcher without a single moment of MLB experience is worth $150M?

I say save the money and focus on getting CJ Wilson. We know he can pitch in the MLB. for what you would spend on Darvish, you can get Wilson and have a huge headway into getting one of the guys that may be available in 2013 like Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Grienke, Shaun Marcum, and Cole Hamels. Of course, I suspect Danks, Hamels, and Cain will probably be extended... but I do think that both Grienke and Marcum will hit the market.

 

[USCChiFan]

After seeing Daisuke's career completely fall apart, no thanks.

 

[Captain Obvious]

On a short term deal, sure. But that wont happen

 

[DewsSox79]

After seeing Daisuke's career completely fall apart, no thanks.

A lot of the Japanese pitchers have a high upside, and usually it isnt low risk/high reward....it is more of a high risk due to the salary demands. This players usually fizzle out of the MLB or start strong and just become a "guy" on your roster.

Dice Ks career has been ehh

give me players from california,and the DR.... not japan

 

[Mr. Cub]

I say hell to the no!! This team's focus needs to be on more important lineup changes that the money could be better spent than on a dude we don't even know how he would perform in the majors. Read: Dice-K.

 

[daddies3angels]

Dont think it be smart for Cubs to do that. Japan players never seem to work out. Only guy worth anything is Ichiro

 

[Rice Cube]

Hideki Matsui was pretty badass for a while

 

[daddies3angels]

Hideki Matsui was pretty badass for a while

He has been a good hitter. Japan Pitchers dont have history doing well in MLB though

 

[dabynsky]

Ah Japanese pitchers don't have a history of doing well in the US? Hideo Nomo was pretty damn good for a while, and Takashi Saito has been a damn good reliever ever since he got here. Hiroki Kurodo is a fine pitcher. Yes there are the Hideki Irabus and Dice-Ks, but there are plenty that worked out as well. Don't forget that a decade ago the thought was that only pitchers could make the transition from Japan to the majors. A couple of things need to be remembered when we are talking about Darvish. One, his Japanese numbers are superior to Dice-K's numbers. Also when you purchase a player via the posting system you have the rights to that player for 6 years. The MLB teams have the vast majority of the leverage in these situations because they can only negotiate with that team. Sure he isn't going to be making league minimum, but his yearly salary is going to be lower than most of the "top" free agent pitchers.

The Cubs should make a bid. If the bidding gets into the 100 million dollar range that someone threw out there than clearly Darvish is not worth that risk, but if the bidding is more in the 30 million to 40 million range it very well could be worth it. Again it depends on how much clubs are scared off by Dice-K.

*Answer an earlier thought from Poodski about ballparks in Japan. Most of them are smaller than American ballparks which is why a number of players power numbers shift dramatically going to and from Japan.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Ah Japanese pitchers don't have a history of doing well in the US? Hideo Nomo was pretty damn good for a while, and Takashi Saito has been a damn good reliever ever since he got here. Hiroki Kurodo is a fine pitcher. Yes there are the Hideki Irabus and Dice-Ks, but there are plenty that worked out as well. Don't forget that a decade ago the thought was that only pitchers could make the transition from Japan to the majors. A couple of things need to be remembered when we are talking about Darvish. One, his Japanese numbers are superior to Dice-K's numbers. Also when you purchase a player via the posting system you have the rights to that player for 6 years. The MLB teams have the vast majority of the leverage in these situations because they can only negotiate with that team. Sure he isn't going to be making league minimum, but his yearly salary is going to be lower than most of the "top" free agent pitchers.

The Cubs should make a bid. If the bidding gets into the 100 million dollar range that someone threw out there than clearly Darvish is not worth that risk, but if the bidding is more in the 30 million to 40 million range it very well could be worth it. Again it depends on how much clubs are scared off by Dice-K.

*Answer an earlier thought from Poodski about ballparks in Japan. Most of them are smaller than American ballparks which is why a number of players power numbers shift dramatically going to and from Japan.

There are already estimations of $100M bidding price. On top of this, they expect Darvish will accept nothing less than $10M per (with some thinking that $15M per is more likely). He has said numerous times that he is not entirely interested in playing in America, and he will milk this to get as much cash as possible. These numbers alone put a team paying somewhere in the realm of $100M just for the bargaining rights... and $60-75M for the actual contract. You tell me, is an unproven, young, Japanese pitcher with huge potential truly worth $160-175M for 6 years (or $26.7-29.1M per)?

 

[Rice Cube]

I think the Yankees are the team who would most likely make that risk and be able to weather the storm should it backfire. But the BB/9 and K/9 numbers suggest that he has some really good control and "stuff" that might translate well to the MLB. Whoever wants him to play for them while he is young and has the potential to actually improve is going to have to pony up.

 

[2SeamHeat]

I think the Yankees are the team who would most likely make that risk and be able to weather the storm should it backfire. But the BB/9 and K/9 numbers suggest that he has some really good control and "stuff" that might translate well to the MLB. Whoever wants him to play for them while he is young and has the potential to actually improve is going to have to pony up.

While pitching in the same league where Tuffy Rhodes may very well be a Hall of Famer. The same league where Matt Murton is a run producing slugger... breaking Ichiro's record of most hits in a season (in his debut season there). The same league where Fukudome was a former MVP.

We see guys that fail in AAA here, go over there and dominate as pitchers (Gary Glover: 9-3 1.9 ERA in 2009 for one example). In other words, I see NPB stats, and gloss over them as being something of a league higher than the Southern League(AA) or Texas League(AA) and beneath the PCL (AAA).

The one real positive I see here is that Darvish is still quite young. That means he has potential to improve and develop, where guys like both Matsuis, Dice-K, Fuki, Kuroda, Uehara, Ohka, Otsuka, Takatsu... etc did not because of how old they were before being eligible to come here.

The only real successes that have come from Japan have been Ichiro and Nomo for the long term, Kuroda, Saito, and H. Matsui for the short term.