Important games coming up

[Bust]

If you were not such a fucking troll you know they play Nashville 3 more times. That’s the funny thing about you, you know nothing about the game of hockey, my bet you jumped the bandwagon when the Hawks started winning, like many, but your to stupid to jump of, afraid that everyone would call you a bandwagon jumper, so you come around these boards and piss people off with your fucking bullshit.

So much cussin...

This dude is upset when the Hawks win. hehhehhehhehe

 

[hawkinmontreal]

So much cussin...

This dude is upset when the Hawks win. hehhehhehhehe

There is no doubt you are a first class loser.

 

[hankchifan]

Honestly, I think the Nashville game likely broke any playoff hopes. We've played them 5 out of 8 times and lost all of them (3 RL, 1OTL, 1SOL). We're level on games and they have a 2-point advantage, and we play them 3 more times. They hold the tiebreaker.

Nashville holds the cards at this point. It's not impossible to make the playoffs at this point, but that means every single point matters if the playoffs are the goal. Winning against Dallas is a good start--especially since we have so far done well against them.

Hawks have not been able to handle the Preds back checking so far. Need major adjustments Or no playoffs. It is also a shame that 3 out of the 4 top teams in the NHL are in the Hawks division. Why are the Hawks in a division with Florida and Tampa and not with traditional rivals Blues and Wild which are also geographically closer?

 

[blackpep72]

Honestly, I think the Nashville game likely broke any playoff hopes. We've played them 5 out of 8 times and lost all of them (3 RL, 1OTL, 1SOL). We're level on games and they have a 2-point advantage, and we play them 3 more times. They hold the tiebreaker.

Nashville holds the cards at this point. It's not impossible to make the playoffs at this point, but that means every single point matters if the playoffs are the goal. Winning against Dallas is a good start--especially since we have so far done well against them.

Yep. Most likely the games vs Nashville will be the deciding factor.

 

[blackpep72]

Why are the Hawks in a division with Florida and Tampa and not with traditional rivals Blues and Wild which are also geographically closer?

Good question. Travelwise it makes little sense.

 

[LordKOTL]

Yep. Most likely the games vs Nashville will be the deciding factor.

WAS the deciding factor in my opinion. When they got blanked by Nashville It solidly put the playoff destiny in Nashville's hands. As it stands now:

• Nashville has more points than we do in the same amount of GP: 43-41.
• Nashville has more RW than we do: 14-12.
• Nashville has more ROW than we do: 17-16.
• Nashville has more W than we do: 21-18.
• And most importantly, Nashville won the season series: They won all 5 games against us with 3 Regulation wins, 1 overtime win, and 1 shootout win.

At that point the tiebreakers stop emphatically. The 'hawks cannot win the season series so they HAVE to pull in 3 more points than Nashville from hereon out. If they only get 2 they HAVE to have 3 more RW than Nashville from hereon out. If they only get 2 then they have to get 2 more ROW than Nashville. If they only get 1 they HAVE to get 4 more wins than Nashville. If they get 3 they're SOL.

Going forward the 'hawks have 3 more games against Dallas and are 4-1-0 against them. They have 2 games against Columbus and are 4-2-0 against them. They have 2 against Detroit and are 5-1-0 against them. They have 3 against Nashville and are 0-3-2 against them. They have 1 against Tampa and are 1-5-1 against them. They have 2 against Florida and are 2-3-1 against them. Finally, they have 3 against Carolina and are 2-2-1 against them.

That's not that promising looking forward. Of the 16 games remaining they have 7 against de facto weaker opponents, 5 against teams they are ~.500 (or slightly worse than .500) against, and 4 against teams that put the beatdown on the 'hawks. Assuming past results equal future outcomes (which they don't but bear with me as I'm playing the odds), chances are they lose out against Nashville and Tampa and come out 2-3 Against Florida and Carolina. That's 2-7. Winning out against the weaker teams would make the 'hawks 9-7 in the remaining games. Assuming Nashville is a perfect .500 in their remaining games (no extra points) that would put the 'hawks at a tie, and we lose the tiebreakers. Ergo: The 'hawks have to win out in their 7 gimme games, and perform better than they have against the ~equal footing teams AND the team who have pounded them to have a shot.

It's possible, but IMHO unlikely. Carolina, Tampa, and Florida are going to be jockeying for playoff position so unless one of those teams pulls way ahead or drops out they'll play every game hard in my estimation and won't try to sleepwalk into the playoffs. Dallas has 3 games in hand on us and are still in contention; even though we do well against them they won't be easy wins. Nashville is Nashville and I expect them to continue to give us fits. Detroit and Columbus might want to play spoiler.

~~~~~

Hawks have not been able to handle the Preds back checking so far. Need major adjustments Or no playoffs. It is also a shame that 3 out of the 4 top teams in the NHL are in the Hawks division. Why are the Hawks in a division with Florida and Tampa and not with traditional rivals Blues and Wild which are also geographically closer?

COVID screwed things up. I believe Canada has much stricter COVID policies in place so it was easier in general to create an all-Canada division.

 

[blackpep72]

WAS the deciding factor in my opinion. When they got blanked by Nashville It solidly put the playoff destiny in Nashville's hands. As it stands now:

• Nashville has more points than we do in the same amount of GP: 43-41.
• Nashville has more RW than we do: 14-12.
• Nashville has more ROW than we do: 17-16.
• Nashville has more W than we do: 21-18.
• And most importantly, Nashville won the season series: They won all 5 games against us with 3 Regulation wins, 1 overtime win, and 1 shootout win.

At that point the tiebreakers stop emphatically. The 'hawks cannot win the season series so they HAVE to pull in 3 more points than Nashville from hereon out. If they only get 2 they HAVE to have 3 more RW than Nashville from hereon out. If they only get 2 then they have to get 2 more ROW than Nashville. If they only get 1 they HAVE to get 4 more wins than Nashville. If they get 3 they're SOL.

Going forward the 'hawks have 3 more games against Dallas and are 4-1-0 against them. They have 2 games against Columbus and are 4-2-0 against them. They have 2 against Detroit and are 5-1-0 against them. They have 3 against Nashville and are 0-3-2 against them. They have 1 against Tampa and are 1-5-1 against them. They have 2 against Florida and are 2-3-1 against them. Finally, they have 3 against Carolina and are 2-2-1 against them.

That's not that promising looking forward. Of the 16 games remaining they have 7 against de facto weaker opponents, 5 against teams they are ~.500 (or slightly worse than .500) against, and 4 against teams that put the beatdown on the 'hawks. Assuming past results equal future outcomes (which they don't but bear with me as I'm playing the odds), chances are they lose out against Nashville and Tampa and come out 2-3 Against Florida and Carolina. That's 2-7. Winning out against the weaker teams would make the 'hawks 9-7 in the remaining games. Assuming Nashville is a perfect .500 in their remaining games (no extra points) that would put the 'hawks at a tie, and we lose the tiebreakers. Ergo: The 'hawks have to win out in their 7 gimme games, and perform better than they have against the ~equal footing teams AND the team who have pounded them to have a shot.

It's possible, but IMHO unlikely. Carolina, Tampa, and Florida are going to be jockeying for playoff position so unless one of those teams pulls way ahead or drops out they'll play every game hard in my estimation and won't try to sleepwalk into the playoffs. Dallas has 3 games in hand on us and are still in contention; even though we do well against them they won't be easy wins. Nashville is Nashville and I expect them to continue to give us fits. Detroit and Columbus might want to play spoiler.

~~~~~


COVID screwed things up. I believe Canada has much stricter COVID policies in place so it was easier in general to create an all-Canada division.

Great post LordKOTL. Cant argue with any of it.

 

[LordKOTL]

Great post LordKOTL. Cant argue with any of it.

Thanks. Not to be overly doom and gloom, but it's a climb for the 'hawks at this point. I could be wrong and they could win the important games and sneak in...but I'm not getting that vibe.

 

[hawkinmontreal]

WAS the deciding factor in my opinion. When they got blanked by Nashville It solidly put the playoff destiny in Nashville's hands. As it stands now:

• Nashville has more points than we do in the same amount of GP: 43-41.
• Nashville has more RW than we do: 14-12.
• Nashville has more ROW than we do: 17-16.
• Nashville has more W than we do: 21-18.
• And most importantly, Nashville won the season series: They won all 5 games against us with 3 Regulation wins, 1 overtime win, and 1 shootout win.

At that point the tiebreakers stop emphatically. The 'hawks cannot win the season series so they HAVE to pull in 3 more points than Nashville from hereon out. If they only get 2 they HAVE to have 3 more RW than Nashville from hereon out. If they only get 2 then they have to get 2 more ROW than Nashville. If they only get 1 they HAVE to get 4 more wins than Nashville. If they get 3 they're SOL.

Going forward the 'hawks have 3 more games against Dallas and are 4-1-0 against them. They have 2 games against Columbus and are 4-2-0 against them. They have 2 against Detroit and are 5-1-0 against them. They have 3 against Nashville and are 0-3-2 against them. They have 1 against Tampa and are 1-5-1 against them. They have 2 against Florida and are 2-3-1 against them. Finally, they have 3 against Carolina and are 2-2-1 against them.

That's not that promising looking forward. Of the 16 games remaining they have 7 against de facto weaker opponents, 5 against teams they are ~.500 (or slightly worse than .500) against, and 4 against teams that put the beatdown on the 'hawks. Assuming past results equal future outcomes (which they don't but bear with me as I'm playing the odds), chances are they lose out against Nashville and Tampa and come out 2-3 Against Florida and Carolina. That's 2-7. Winning out against the weaker teams would make the 'hawks 9-7 in the remaining games. Assuming Nashville is a perfect .500 in their remaining games (no extra points) that would put the 'hawks at a tie, and we lose the tiebreakers. Ergo: The 'hawks have to win out in their 7 gimme games, and perform better than they have against the ~equal footing teams AND the team who have pounded them to have a shot.

It's possible, but IMHO unlikely. Carolina, Tampa, and Florida are going to be jockeying for playoff position so unless one of those teams pulls way ahead or drops out they'll play every game hard in my estimation and won't try to sleepwalk into the playoffs. Dallas has 3 games in hand on us and are still in contention; even though we do well against them they won't be easy wins. Nashville is Nashville and I expect them to continue to give us fits. Detroit and Columbus might want to play spoiler.

~~~~~


COVID screwed things up. I believe Canada has much stricter COVID policies in place so it was easier in general to create an all-Canada division.

Nashville is certainly playing well right now, but the team over all isn’t that great. They seem to have the Hawks number, but we wait and see. The first line of business is keeping pace then winning 2 out 3 from them, anything less and it’s over.

 

[LordKOTL]

Nashville is certainly playing well right now, but the team over all isn’t that great. They seem to have the Hawks number, but we wait and see. The first line of business is keeping pace then winning 2 out 3 from them, anything less and it’s over.

I may have been overly pessimistic.

Looking at Nashville's season so far:
They play Detroit once more, and they are 5-2-0 against them.
They play Tampa 2 more times, and are 1-5-0 against them.
They play Dallas 2 more times, and are 3-3 against them.
They play Carolina 4 more times, and are 0-3-1 against them.
They play us 3 more times, and are 5-0-0 against us.
They play Florida 2 more times, and are 2-4-0 against them.
They play Columbus 2 more times, and are 5-1-0 against them.

Comparing the teams: The 'hawks have 7 games remaining they should win based on this season, Nashville has 6. We have 5 against ~.500 teams, they have 4, and their record against those teams are slightly worse than ours against our ~500 teams. We have 4 games against teams that gave us a beatdown, they have 6.

I think the 'hawks path forward just has to be to keep winning against the Teams they've done good against, and let the tougher teams take care of Nashville. While that doesn't mean roll over for them, it does mean that the 'hawks should look less on head-to-head and more towards taking care of the teams they should take care of and upping their play against the teams they match well with. If we lose vs. Tampa and Nashville (and Nashville loses out against Tampa and Carolina), from there the 'hawks just need to keep pace with them for the gimme and .500 teams to be up on points...on paper.

I still have a gut feeling, though, that we may stumble in a bad spot and might *just* miss.

*EDIT* See also: Tonight's game against Dallas. This is Brutal with an Austrian accent.

 

[Granada]

Of course Dallas/Nash became a three-point game with Nash winning in a shootout. These damn three-point games.

 

[hawkinmontreal]

Connelly in the house