In terms of starting pitching, what is a great bull pen worth?

[2323]

I had this conversation with a colleague recently. What is a great bullpen worth relative to starting pitching in a 5 man rotation?

Would you rather have a. great bullpen or a great #1 starter?

Would you rather have a great bullpen or a great #2 starter?

"" #3 starter?

"" #4 starter?

"" #5 starter?

Personally, I'd take a great #1 and #2, then a great bullpen. So to me, a great bullpen < great #1and #2. A greet bullpen > #3, 4, 5.

 

[Boobaby1]

I had this conversation with a colleague recently. What is a great bullpen worth relative to starting pitching in a 5 man rotation?

Would you rather have a. great bullpen or a great #1 starter?

Would you rather have a great bullpen or a great #2 starter?

"" #3 starter?

"" #4 starter?

"" #5 starter?

Personally, I'd take a great #1 and #2, then a great bullpen. So to me, a great bullpen < great #1and #2. A greet bullpen > #3, 4, 5.

A great #1 and #2 can carry you to a WS, followed by a strong bullpen to hold any threats off in the instances of the #3 and #4.

Of course as Cubs fans, we have nothing of the sort on most accounts, which I am hoping the start of it is coming from Japan.

 

[CSF77]

A great #1 and #2 can carry you to a WS, followed by a strong bullpen to hold any threats off in the instances of the #3 and #4.

Of course as Cubs fans, we have nothing of the sort on most accounts, which I am hoping the start of it is coming from Japan.

Honestly Shark is a solid #3. Wood has the makings of a solid #2. Tanaka would become a solid #1.

Kinda reminds me of a young Madux/Glavine/Smoltz. Same chemistry. control/control/power.

On a BP. 7-9 yes they have to shut down teams. They need a mix of MR RH/LH spec.

It has to be diverse.

I wouldn't compare each to the other too much.

1-3 the starter has to get near 200 IP and has the ability to toss a shut out. 4-5 is more of a IP and keep the team in the game type.

If you build a rotation right that is. Having a SP that AVG's 5.2 IP and gets into heavy pitch counts early inning puts too much stress onto the BP.

The best answer is to aim for SP that goes deeper into games. Like Bronson. He is a prototypical 4/5 starter. plenty of mileage and keeps his team in the game.

 

[Boobaby1]

Honestly Shark is a solid #3. Wood has the makings of a solid #2. Tanaka would become a solid #1.

Kinda reminds me of a young Madux/Glavine/Smoltz. Same chemistry. control/control/power.

On a BP. 7-9 yes they have to shut down teams. They need a mix of MR RH/LH spec.

It has to be diverse.

I wouldn't compare each to the other too much.

1-3 the starter has to get near 200 IP and has the ability to toss a shut out. 4-5 is more of a IP and keep the team in the game type.

If you build a rotation right that is. Having a SP that AVG's 5.2 IP and gets into heavy pitch counts early inning puts too much stress onto the BP.

The best answer is to aim for SP that goes deeper into games. Like Bronson. He is a prototypical 4/5 starter. plenty of mileage and keeps his team in the game.

I did say on most accounts, and yes for now, Shark is still a Cub and so is Wood. That can change though as I know Theo would pull the string on any of them if he felt something was more appealing. I highly doubt both would go, and maybe neither if they fail to ink Tanaka.

I think #2 might be a little high on Wood, though he is valuable as a lefty. I hope Shark becomes the Cubs #4 and Wood the Cubs #5 pitcher meaning that the top 3 are that much better.

 

[CSF77]

I think #2 might be a little high on Wood, though he is valuable as a lefty. I hope Shark becomes the Cubs #4 and Wood the Cubs #5 pitcher meaning that the top 3 are that much better.

I think he is being under valued here.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/
Travis Wood threw 200 innings for the Cubs in 2013, posting a 3.11 ERA.
CHICAGO -- As you might expect with a 66-96 team, there were as many positives off the field -- or in the minors -- as there were on the playing diamond for the Chicago Cubs in 2013.

By far the starting staff was the brightest spot on the big-league team, but even they couldn’t do it alone as poor defense early and a year-long problem of getting on base contributed to the team’s woes.

And finding the worst stories for a last-place team shouldn’t be hard right?

But don’t forget, the Cubs' record during this rebuilding phase is by design. If they wanted to win a few more games they wouldn’t be trading veterans during the season. So the five worst stories for the Cubs in 2013 have little to do with actual games won or lost.
BEST MOMENTS
5. Donnie Baseball: No, infielder Donnie Murphy didn’t get the Cubs closer to the playoffs after being called up from the minors in early August, but his offensive performance over the final two months is worthy of mention. He hit 11 home runs and drove in 23 in just 149 at-bats. For comparison, shortstop Starlin Castro hit 10 home runs in 666 at-bats. Even more impressive was Murphy’s performance in clutch situations. In spots deemed “late in games and close,” Murphy hit .368 with three home runs and seven RBIs. That batting average was second on the team while the home runs were tied for first and the RBIs tied for second. And he produced those numbers in just 19 at-bats. His hot finish earned a contract for 2014.

4. Feldman/Garza trades: We’ll have to wait a while to know if these are for-sure winners, but when the Cubs moved Scott Feldman and Matt Garza to the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers, respectively, in July, they got back three, younger dynamic arms. Jake Arrieta is already a back-of-the rotation guy -- just as Feldman was -- but his stuff screams the ability to be better. His devastating curveball can freeze hitters while his lone weakness is control. He showed flashes after coming over and says getting away from the Orioles and a fresh start with a new pitching coach is all he needs to flourish. Pedro Strop is a closer in the making, although he will probably start 2014 as the main set-up man. Feldman parlayed his season into a $30 million deal with the Houston Astros, but it’s the Cubs who could end up the big winners. As for Garza’s deal, the Cubs acquired righty CJ Edwards, who helped Single-A Daytona to a championship. He’s small of stature but can throw lights-out. The Cubs also acquired one-time hot prospect Mike Olt. The third baseman took a dip in 2013, but with injuries behind him, he might turn into a steal.

3. Javier Baez’ season: There were high expectations for the Cubs' No. 1 pick from 2011 and Baez not only met them, he exceeded them. Not many players at age 20 have had minor league seasons like Baez did. Gary Sheffield comes to mind who, ironically, is the player most observers compare Baez with. That’s because of his vicious swing, which produced 37 home runs and 111 RBIs between Single- and Double-A. He also stole 20 bases, while his plate discipline got better as the season wore on. He did commit 44 errors, but the Cubs don’t seem overly concerned. There’s still work to be done, but starting 2014 at Triple-A means he’s a couple of hot months away from being called up to the majors.

2. Drafting Kris Bryant: Remember, this was no slam-dunk pick. At least not in the mind of the public. The Cubs had a myriad of hitters and pitchers to choose from picking No. 2 in this past June’s amateur draft and by all accounts -- so far -- they hit a home run. (No pun intended.) Bryant is big, strong and can crush the ball. He hit 31 home runs for the University of San Diego to lead the NCAA last season. Second place hit 21. That says it all. He won honors for top collegiate player, then went on to rip up minor league pitching in the final months of the 2013 season. To top off his year he won MVP of the Arizona Fall League where he hit another six home runs to lead all hitters. In handicapping young prospects he’s more of a “sure thing” then Baez, but both can be transformative players for a given team.

1. Wood emerges: For a rebuilding team nothing is more important than advancement at the major league level by young players. During this phase the front office is always on the lookout for “core” players they can lock up. Lefty Travis Wood pitched his way into being one in 2013 with a masterful year. Despite lousy run support, he was the Cubs' most consistent and best starter from April to September. He ranked 12th in ERA (3.11) in the National League, pitching exactly 200 innings for the first time in his career. Opponents hit just .222 against him, sixth best in the NL. He worked both sides of the plate, up and down, and was nearly as good against righties (.226) as he was against lefties (.207). It was a breakout year which could put him in line for a long-term contract in the near future.



WORST MOMENTS
5. Kevin Gregg's mea culpa: Towards the end of a meaningless season in the standings, closer Kevin Gregg was forced to march up to the press box in order to clarify previous critical statements about losing his role to recently acquired Pedro Strop. The Cubs were miffed that Gregg overreacted to manager Dale Sveum telling him Strop would get a few chances to close games down the stretch. Team President Theo Epstein also marched up to the press box to explain things -- pointing out how the Cubs helped resurrect Gregg’s career -- and nearly released him on the spot. His near roll of the eyes summed up the situation: it was the last thing he needed at the end of a long year.

4. Castro bats eighth: Tuesday, Aug. 20 may have finally sealed former manager Sveum’s fate. After moving Castro around in the order all season, the shortstop was dropped to eighth for the first time since his rookie year. And for the first time Castro voiced his displeasure. Sveum said he didn’t know how long he would leave Castro there, but by the next day he was batting lead-off again. At the time sources said it wasn’t Sveum’s call to move him back up. He stayed in the one-hole for the rest of the season -- and performed better -- and looking back, that kind of gap in communication may have been a contributing factor to Sveum’s ouster.

3. Samardzija’s second half: If Jeff Samardzija had pitched the second half like he did the first half then maybe the Cubs wouldn’t have any doubts about giving him big money two years before free agency. His rising ERA in July (5.28), August (5.54) and September (5.58) contributed to an average season for him as a starter who threw 200 innings for the first time. Maybe it’s no coincidence his woes came as the team sold its veteran parts and fell way out of the race. Samardzija needs the adrenaline of a pennant race to pitch his best, but until that day comes a better showing in non-meaningful games will help prove he deserves big pay day.

2. Castro's season: There’s plenty of blame to go around for a career worst season after back-to-back All-Star bids. His batting average dipped to .245 and his play in the field was just as curious as ever -- at least early in the season. A better final month-and-a-half on offense and defense gives hope for 2014, but did the Cubs mess with him too much to be fixed? The front office, Sveum and the coaches are all to blame along with Castro. A fresh start is needed for one of the Cubs mainstays.

1. Wrigley (non) renovation: The Cubs like to call it “Restoration”. Whatever. It’s nothing until it actually starts. If it’s red tape that’s holding it up then the Cubs have gone through a lot of it and still no resolution has been found. Rooftop owners have dug in while the Cubs aren’t changing their stance either: they claim they need the renovations in order to bring in new revenue in order to compete. The rooftop owners have a contract for unimpeded views. Neither side looks good and so the whole story counts as one of the worst of the year.

 

[CSF77]

The lousy run support says it all. He was last in the league in ruin support while leading the league in quality starts. Give him a legit O that year could have been a 20 game winning year.

You are selling him short.

I feel the bottom line is the Cubs need more punch in an anemic line up.

 

[Boobaby1]

The lousy run support says it all. He was last in the league in ruin support while leading the league in quality starts. Give him a legit O that year could have been a 20 game winning year.

You are selling him short.

I feel the bottom line is the Cubs need more punch in an anemic line up.

I need another year of him pitching the way he did before I say he is a definite mainstay, but like I said, the lefty part is valuable.

Even if he pitches well though, I doubt I would want him pitching in game #2 of the WS. Saying he is a #2 on the Cubs is kinda saying how weak the Cubs staff truly is.

Again, this will be the year as teams adjust or don't adjust to him.

I hope he proves to be legit.

 

[beckdawg]

Well depending on how you want to classify bullpen, Atlanta had the lowest reliever ERA last year. There top 5 in starts were Minor, Medlen, Teheran, Maholm and Hudson. The rest of their pitchers had 7.1 WAR. However, you need a base line to compare to. If we're going to use a bad bullpen like say the cubs they had around 1.3 WAR. Baltimore was around league average in ERA and they put up around 4 WAR.

So, simply stated a "great" bullpen is probably worth 3 WAR. In terms of what 3 WAR equates to it's hard to give a #1/2..etc status because that varies a lot team to team. Grienke for example isn't really a "#2." However there were only 41 pitchers who put up 3+ WAR. Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana, both ironically FAs, were worth 3 WAR. For a cubs connection, Wood and Shark were both worth 2.8 WAR.

With the cubs bull pen being that terrible last year you could make the argument if they are league average in 2014 that's the same impact as picking up a Nolasco or a Santana.

 

[patg006]

I had this conversation with a colleague recently. What is a great bullpen worth relative to starting pitching in a 5 man rotation?

Would you rather have a. great bullpen or a great #1 starter?

Would you rather have a great bullpen or a great #2 starter?

"" #3 starter?

"" #4 starter?

"" #5 starter?

Personally, I'd take a great #1 and #2, then a great bullpen. So to me, a great bullpen < great #1and #2. A greet bullpen > #3, 4, 5.

Give me the ace over the bullpen. You can trade an ace for an entire bullpen.

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly Shark is a solid #3. Wood has the makings of a solid #2. Tanaka would become a solid #1.

Kinda reminds me of a young Madux/Glavine/Smoltz. Same chemistry. control/control/power.

I'm not trying to be a dick here but that is beyond a stretch. You just compared Shark Wood and Tanaka to 3 likely hall of famers. Not to mention Wood as a #2 is quite optimistic. Wood last year had a HR/9 ratio of 1.44. This year it was 0.81. He's an extreme flyball pitcher(32.8% career GB ratio) pitching in one of the best hitters parks. That's the difference between a 4.27 ERA and a 3.11 ERA. He's 6th in terms of flyball pitchers over the past 5 years. Ted Lilly and Bruce Chen are similar pitchers. Both of these guys have been really effective when their HR's are down and really bad when they aren't. When they are around 1 HR/9 they are generally really good pitchers. At 1.5 they are around a 4 ERA and anything higher they are flat out bad.

Then there's the other aspect of Wood which is strange. Throughout his minor league experience he was around a .270ish BABIP type. In his first season with the reds he was .259. His second was .324. His two with the cubs have been .244 and .248 which objectively seems quite low given his minor league numbers. His first season with the Reds was low HR/9 and low BABIP and yielded good results. His second was low HR/9 high BABIP and yielded bad results. His first year with the cubs was low BABIP high HR/9 and yielded bad results. This year was low HR/9 and low BABIP again.

Simply stated, I think last year was quite literally the best possible case for Wood. If you expect him to consistently repeat it I think you're in for a let down not just because of the fact it was best case but also because extreme flyball pitchers are going to be quite different year to year based on their HR totals which is evident by basically any of the guys that have high flyball ratios.

 

[SilenceS]

I'm not trying to be a dick here but that is beyond a stretch. You just compared Shark Wood and Tanaka to 3 likely hall of famers. Not to mention Wood as a #2 is quite optimistic. Wood last year had a HR/9 ratio of 1.44. This year it was 0.81. He's an extreme flyball pitcher(32.8% career GB ratio) pitching in one of the best hitters parks. That's the difference between a 4.27 ERA and a 3.11 ERA. He's 6th in terms of flyball pitchers over the past 5 years. Ted Lilly and Bruce Chen are similar pitchers. Both of these guys have been really effective when their HR's are down and really bad when they aren't. When they are around 1 HR/9 they are generally really good pitchers. At 1.5 they are around a 4 ERA and anything higher they are flat out bad.

Then there's the other aspect of Wood which is strange. Throughout his minor league experience he was around a .270ish BABIP type. In his first season with the reds he was .259. His second was .324. His two with the cubs have been .244 and .248 which objectively seems quite low given his minor league numbers. His first season with the Reds was low HR/9 and low BABIP and yielded good results. His second was low HR/9 high BABIP and yielded bad results. His first year with the cubs was low BABIP high HR/9 and yielded bad results. This year was low HR/9 and low BABIP again.

Simply stated, I think last year was quite literally the best possible case for Wood. If you expect him to consistently repeat it I think you're in for a let down not just because of the fact it was best case but also because extreme flyball pitchers are going to be quite different year to year based on their HR totals which is evident by basically any of the guys that have high flyball ratios.

I truly agree with this. Hope people read the Shark article i posted.

 

[CSF77]

I posted a young. Smoltz was far from ace material early on. They got better as they aged.

Try not to take things so serious.

Shark has top of the rotation potential and no one can say how much he improves over the next 5 years.

Tanaka has a solid history already and is a ground ball pitcher.

Last year was Wood's first year that he broke 200 IP. Not to mention he is on the young side.

All I'm saying is they would not be bad off with those 3 as long as they have quality run support.

 

[CSF77]

On Wood I believe his sucess came with pitching to contact and Dale's shifts set up. I'm not sure if he will repeat with out Dale's infield shifts.

But the good part with Travis was his splits vs LH and RH. He got both out at the same rate. Add into it he was concistant every month. He did not fall off the table like Shark did. That is a quality you want at the top.

 

[daddies3angels]

On Wood I believe his sucess came with pitching to contact and Dale's shifts set up. I'm not sure if he will repeat with out Dale's infield shifts.

But the good part with Travis was his splits vs LH and RH. He got both out at the same rate. Add into it he was concistant every month. He did not fall off the table like Shark did. That is a quality you want at the top.

Dont think Renteria will do shifts? I think Cubs will keep doing those cause it comes from up top. They big into metrics

 

[JosMin]

Saying having a nice mix of both is somewhat of a cop-out, but honestly, in today's game with pitch counts and the inability to "push" starters, having a deep, competent bullpen is more crucial than ever, especially your sixth, seventh and eighth inning guys. Our bullpen was catastrophically bad last year, and I think a full season of Strop and the addition of Jose Veras can only help. We also may get something from Arodys Vizcaino and Kyuji Fujikawa once they return from injury. Our bullpen could definitely come a bright spot towards the end of the season. And honestly, with question marks in the rotation beyond Samardzija and Wood, that will only help us.

 

[NCChiFan]

Glad I don't have to write the checks, if you find out.

 

[beckdawg]

On Wood I believe his sucess came with pitching to contact and Dale's shifts set up. I'm not sure if he will repeat with out Dale's infield shifts.

You're missing my point. He's a flyball pitcher. Infield shifts don't do much for that. If he was a 68% GB pitcher instead of a 68% flyball pitcher than yeah defensive shifts make the difference. Quite literally 2 out of every 3 batters who put balls into play are hitting fly balls. Now, there are some pitchers who manage to survive on really low HR/9 despite being flyball pitchers. Weaver is one(33.2% GB ratio 0.96 HR/9). Maybe Wood can do that. He's been ok there in 3 out of his 4 MLB seasons. However, last year showed us he is very capable of getting burnt by HR's with his fly ball ratio.

All I'm saying is temper your expectations. If he keeps his HRs under control he can be a highly effective pitcher. However, study has shown that the average HR/FB is around 10.5%(which is why xFIP uses that) and last year Wood was at 6.9%. As I've said, some pitchers for whatever reason are better at keeping flyballs in the park(probably something to do with a particularly good pitch that they get people to pop up) but they are the exception not the rule.

On the plus side, Wood's cutter last year apparently was fairly dominating. Looking at pitch f/x data, Cliff Lee had the best 2 seam fastball with a value of 14.9. Wood's cutter was 19.5 with Wainwright's being 13.1. Hisashi Iwakuma's sinker was the best value at 15.0. Bunch of people had really good sliders but the only ones better than 19 was Darvish(35.5) and Arroyo(19.3). Bunch of good curves as well but Jose Fernandez is the only one better than 19 with 23.5. A.J. Burnett had a good knuckle curve with 20.3. Hamels(29.1) and Ryu(21) had really good change ups. So, comparatively you can see Wood's cutter last year was one of the better pitches value wise in the league though with a contact % of 87.0% people were hitting it.

I'll look a bit more into why that pitch was so good for him as it's not quickly obvious to me why. But, I just wanted to add it's possible that he's done something to rework that pitch that suddenly has made him different than the past 3 years. He was either fluky better this year or something has changed because it ranged from -3.9 to 4.7 in his other 3 seasons. So to see it jump to a 19.5 value is pretty dramatic. Perhaps his slight increase in vertical movement caused people to weakly pop up more balls(thus leading to a better hr/9).

 

[SilenceS]

You're missing my point. He's a flyball pitcher. Infield shifts don't do much for that. If he was a 68% GB pitcher instead of a 68% flyball pitcher than yeah defensive shifts make the difference. Quite literally 2 out of every 3 batters who put balls into play are hitting fly balls. Now, there are some pitchers who manage to survive on really low HR/9 despite being flyball pitchers. Weaver is one(33.2% GB ratio 0.96 HR/9). Maybe Wood can do that. He's been ok there in 3 out of his 4 MLB seasons. However, last year showed us he is very capable of getting burnt by HR's with his fly ball ratio.

All I'm saying is temper your expectations. If he keeps his HRs under control he can be a highly effective pitcher. However, study has shown that the average HR/FB is around 10.5%(which is why xFIP uses that) and last year Wood was at 6.9%. As I've said, some pitchers for whatever reason are better at keeping flyballs in the park(probably something to do with a particularly good pitch that they get people to pop up) but they are the exception not the rule.

On the plus side, Wood's cutter last year apparently was fairly dominating. Looking at pitch f/x data, Cliff Lee had the best 2 seam fastball with a value of 14.9. Wood's cutter was 19.5 with Wainwright's being 13.1. Hisashi Iwakuma's sinker was the best value at 15.0. Bunch of people had really good sliders but the only ones better than 19 was Darvish(35.5) and Arroyo(19.3). Bunch of good curves as well but Jose Fernandez is the only one better than 19 with 23.5. A.J. Burnett had a good knuckle curve with 20.3. Hamels(29.1) and Ryu(21) had really good change ups. So, comparatively you can see Wood's cutter last year was one of the better pitches value wise in the league though with a contact % of 87.0% people were hitting it.

I'll look a bit more into why that pitch was so good for him as it's not quickly obvious to me why. But, I just wanted to add it's possible that he's done something to rework that pitch that suddenly has made him different than the past 3 years. He was either fluky better this year or something has changed because it ranged from -3.9 to 4.7 in his other 3 seasons. So to see it jump to a 19.5 value is pretty dramatic. Perhaps his slight increase in vertical movement caused people to weakly pop up more balls(thus leading to a better hr/9).

He learned to throw it inside and outside. The years before he could only throw it inside. There are articles on it last year that he learned to throw his cutter where he wanted when before he was a one trick pony on where he threw it.