Interesting Statistics on Bears 2017 Season

Bort

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We all know that the Bears ranked near the bottom of the league in offense and near the top of the league in defense, and the advanced statistics from pfr give some interesting insight on how and why that happened. There are also some other interesting stats to ponder.

Here are 5 things that really jumped out at me from the stats:

1) The Bears offense averaged 26.3 yards per offensive possession, which is actually only slightly below average and much higher than I expected (league average was 29.1). It turns out that the more significant reason that Bears put up so few total yards for the season was that they only had 174 offensive possessions, third lowest of any team in the NFL.

2) The Bears defense gave up 28.7 yards per defensive possession and 5.1 yards per play, which are both pretty average. However, they only had 178 drives against them, which is again one of the lowest in the NFL. Again, interestingly, the major reason that the Bears allowed so few yards on defense is the same as the major reason they gained so few yards on offense: they had an unusually low number of total drives on both offense and defense.

3) The Bears defensive turnover percentage of 11.2% was about average, which really surprised me. I thought they would be near the bottom on this stat because they only had 8 interceptions the entire season. It turns out, though, that once you adjust for the total number of possessions and do it as a percentage, the Bears defense was actually about average at causing turnovers.

4) By far the greatest strength of the Bears defense was keeping teams out of the end zone. They allowed their opponents to score on 33.1% of their drives (which is about average), but they only allowed 28 touchdowns all season, 3rd fewest out of any defense in the NFL, This is the major reason why their points allowed per defensive possession (my personal favorite defensive stat) was a very good 1.67, 8th best in the NFL. Teams were moving the ball pretty well and getting into scoring position, but were unable to convert those opportunities into touchdowns.

5) By far the most unusual, outlier stat is that the Bears only had 473 pass attempts for the season. This is not only the fewest of any team in the NFL this season, it's actually a historically low number of pass attempts in the modern era. I feel like I need to explain what an absurdly, comically low number of passing attempts this is. You just never see a team with a losing record with that few passing attempts. If it ever happens, it's with a team that has a scrambling quarterback that is winning a lot and therefore rarely passing (like the 2013 Seahawks or 2013 49ers). I actually researched the last time a team with a losing record had fewer than 473 passing attempts, and it was the 2011 Miami Dolphins, whose coach, Tony Sparano, got fired during the season for incompetence.
 

Decatur Staley

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Your anomalies help to explain each other... Fewer passes = more runs = fewer possessions
 

greg23

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But I thought our defense was elite?

So it was as average as it looked???
 

SugarWalls

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Probably would've helped if the Bears offense could have sustained any drives. It was run run pass punt and the defense was back on the field. It sure felt like the defense was playing 75% of the game week after week.
 

Bort

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But I thought our defense was elite?

So it was as average as it looked???

They were really, really good at stopping opposing teams from scoring touchdowns, which is kind of important in football.
 
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No they were above average, unlike your posting.

Oh snap!

tenor.gif
 

greg23

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They were really, really good at stopping opposing teams from scoring touchdowns, which is kind of important in football.

Awesome

Led us to 5 wins

Yes they were good at preventing td but they were patently average most of the year. They don't pass the eye test as an elite defense and most numbers were skewed by limited possessions.

There is some potential there with another pass rusher and everone remaining healthy but we could be looking at losing all 3 outside corners and the slot db are uninspiring.
 

HeHateMe

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Wow, awesome post. See Vash, this is how to post clear, concise, and worthwhile threads.

I will never understand why I even need to have a room-mate or bother saving up for my own home when I am literally able to live rent free inside of your head, except for maybe I do not require all of that space.
 

HeHateMe

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For the record I love this thread and any post by bort, he is the best poster on here.
 

napo55

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I would be interested in the OP's opinions on what the team should concentrate on in the draft. I say it's clear that offense needs to be prioritized, but apparently the consensus on this board seems to be defense. (BPA is not my question. Of course, you always have to consider player quality.)
 

Ej63090

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They were incredibly good at seeing third downs and allowing them to convert. This eats a shit ton of time off the clock.
 

greg23

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Personally I would love to add a high level center and /rt in free agency
Move whitehair to guard
Have massie/new rt as starter and swing tackle
Release sitton and grassu
Keep kush

My oline would be

Leno
Whitehair
Fa c
Long
Fa rt
Massie (swing tackle)
Kush (guard+ c backup)
Morgan

The one issue with this is that we may be in position where the bpa at 8 is mcglinchy/nelson who would be nice picks but redundant with the above fa signings.

However the best way to get trubisky going is with a great/athletic/dominating oline....overpaying in fa for those guys who are professionals is the better option (see la rams signings last offseason).

Sets us up to hope for Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Ferrell, Barkley at 8
 

greg23

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They were incredibly good at seeing third downs and allowing them to convert. This eats a shit ton of time off the clock.

This

We were awful on 3rd downs.....until the red zone.

Do you get credit for being an elite defense for making 3rd down stops and forcing a fg when you allowed 3-4-5 3rd down conversions earlier in the same drive???
 

Bort

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I would be interested in the OP's opinions on what the team should concentrate on in the draft. I say it's clear that offense needs to be prioritized, but apparently the consensus on this board seems to be defense. (BPA is not my question. Of course, you always have to consider player quality.)

I think everyone agrees that OLB and WR are the biggest individual needs.

On the other hand, the offense might not need as much help as we think. There are some good, young, developing players with a lot of room to improve like Trubisky, Shaheen, Cohen, Howard, Whitehair, Meredith, and, yes, Kevin White (I know it's an unpopular opinion, but I'm still not ready to give up on Kevin White).
 

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