Is Kris Bryant Top Five in MLB?

brett05

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What does being a team over .500 have to do with anything? LOL. There is no bias. Bryant has been a .274 or higher hitter every month. He has also just killed after the all star break. lol
I think you aren't reading things properly. I stated the numbers of Braynt and Rizzo against teams over .500 this year. There is a .200 point difference in OPS. I thought Bryant was close, but he's really not close at all to Rizzo. That takes nothing away from Bryant but shows how great Rizzo really is.

And after the break he's been White Sox good. Bryant that is. Here's his first 17 games with his stellar 718 OPS

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p...=2016&share=3.97#238-254-sum:batting_gamelogs
 

brett05

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The over/under .500 thing is superfluous to the argument. You play who you play and the large sample size sorts it out. Even if you were to look at it that way there are so many variables including opposing pitchers, weather, etc. etc. for it ever to carry any meaningful weight. Rizzo has 501 PA and Bryant 546 PA eliminating eliminating any discussion of sample size. Bryant this year is objectively better by the only known statistic, even if it's imperfect, we have at our disposal. The fact that Bryant is top 5 in both fWAR and bWAR tells the story. I love Anthony Rizzo, he'll get an MVP at some point and how great is that to have two guys of that caliber in the middle of your lineup? They are probably both top 5 players both years this year though Bryant has the upper hand.

I totally disagree with you on too small of a sample size. You play who you play. When comparing players like say Bryant and Seager you got a point as they don't play the same teams at the same time against the same pitchers. In the case of teammates for comparison which is exactly what this is between Rizzo and Bryant, they play the same teams at the same time against the same pitchers 90+ percent of the time.

Bryant has a higher war because of the damage he has done against baseball's worst teams. There's no doubt about that for me. Rizzo has shown objectively to be better this year especially against teams he needs to be which are the playoff hunting teams.

Bryant is good. Like I said, probably top 10, but he's not top 5. And on players you want to have on your team (still excluding pitchers) he's not top 5 as well.
 

brett05

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.300/.392/.574 with 33 HR and a wOBA of .406. His fWAR is now .1 of a win behind Mike Trout in all of MLB. Can you really even argue that this kid is not top 5?

Another argument would be bWAR where he is 1.5 WAR behind Trout.
 

Raskolnikov

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Well, Harper is not top 5 this year at all. Bryant and Harper have that potential, do you think Bryant can gain some muscle and not lose bat speed/speed?
 

TC in Mississippi

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I totally disagree with you on too small of a sample size. You play who you play. When comparing players like say Bryant and Seager you got a point as they don't play the same teams at the same time against the same pitchers. In the case of teammates for comparison which is exactly what this is between Rizzo and Bryant, they play the same teams at the same time against the same pitchers 90+ percent of the time.

Bryant has a higher war because of the damage he has done against baseball's worst teams. There's no doubt about that for me. Rizzo has shown objectively to be better this year especially against teams he needs to be which are the playoff hunting teams.

Bryant is good. Like I said, probably top 10, but he's not top 5. And on players you want to have on your team (still excluding pitchers) he's not top 5 as well.

No, what I said was that there is a large sample size here and the numbers sort themselves out, especially with two players on the same team. All you're arguing is sequencing. It reminds me a little of the old argument that Aramis Ramirez only put up good numbers in garbage time and against weaker opponents when he was consistently a very, very good player from 2006-2008. you play who you play. The larger the sample size the more the numbers ring true.
 

Raskolnikov

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Does fWar have a clutch factor? Because Rizzo seems awfully consistent at being clutch in big tight games and getting a knock when its needed.

Rizzo just from an observational stand point plays like an MVP. I bet you Bryant would say Rizzo is the MVP, its unbelievable to me he puts good wood on the ball just about every single time the situation is dire, or runners are in scoring position.
 

brett05

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Where he's 5th, still top 5, and most people I know prefer fWAR.

For me it's about split on who they like.

That said, just because you are top 5 war does not mean you are a top 5 player in the game today, right? Example could be Harper. Last year this time many were saying an all time great. How that perception has changed.
 

brett05

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No, what I said was that there is a large sample size here and the numbers sort themselves out, especially with two players on the same team. All you're arguing is sequencing. It reminds me a little of the old argument that Aramis Ramirez only put up good numbers in garbage time and against weaker opponents when he was consistently a very, very good player from 2006-2008. you play who you play. The larger the sample size the more the numbers ring true.
I did misread that then. Sorry. And thanks.

I don't recall that argument for Ramirez, but do for Sosa on his home runs.

Ok, so with the large sample size we see Rizzo 198 points higher in OPS against playoff competition. That is YYYYUUUGGGEEE! (Trump emphasis)
 

brett05

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Does fWar have a clutch factor? Because Rizzo seems awfully consistent at being clutch in big tight games and getting a knock when its needed.

Rizzo just from an observational stand point plays like an MVP. I bet you Bryant would say Rizzo is the MVP, its unbelievable to me he puts good wood on the ball just about every single time the situation is dire, or runners are in scoring position.


To be fair, I bet Rizzo says Bryant is the MVP.
 

fatbeard

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For me it's about split on who they know.

That said, just because you are top 5 war does not mean you are a top 5 player in the game today, right? Example could be Harper. Last year this time many were saying an all time great. How that perception has changed.

The fawning over Harper is baffling. Out of his nearly five complete seasons, one has been above 5 fWAR (looks like he'll fall short again this year). It was a hell of a season, but it sure looks like the outlier at this point. He's also missed 40-60 games twice. And this is a player some people think is worthy of a $400mil fully-guaranteed investment? At this point, he's JD Drew until he proves otherwise.
 

brett05

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The fawning over Harper is baffling. Out of his nearly five complete seasons, one has been above 5 fWAR (looks like he'll fall short again this year). It was a hell of a season, but it sure looks like the outlier at this point. He's also missed 40-60 games twice. And this is a player some people think is worthy of a $400mil fully-guaranteed investment? At this point, he's JD Drew until he proves otherwise.

A pretty big stretch on the analogy, but I understand you wanting to see more.

He's been above 5 twice. at age 19 and at age 25. By bwar anyways.

But you bring up the right point possibly without meaning too. There's just not enough of a body of work to put Bryant top 5.
 

fatbeard

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A pretty big stretch on the analogy, but I understand you wanting to see more.

I don't think so. Drew had one massive outlier season in his 6th full year, (8.5 fWAR). The rest of the time he was a ~4 win player. Harper is probably a little better than that. People argue "Oh but he's so young...", but he's essentially the same player he was when he came up at 18. The BB% is substantially better, and that's about it. There's been no progression in his game (BA, SLG, wOBA, defense all about the same at age 23 as 18).

He's been above 5 twice. at age 19 and at age 25. By bwar anyways.

I was referencing Fangraphs. Excluding last year, his highest fWAR is 4.6 (his rookie year).

But you bring up the right point possibly without meaning too. There's just not enough of a body of work to put Bryant top 5.

Seems like a bit of a cop-out to me. Harper's year stood out as a clear outlier, doubling his previous best WAR. Bryant is just improving on an already excellent first season (6.5 fWAR) after addressing many of his weaknesses at the plate. Even if he had a 9+ WAR season next year, it wouldn't really be an outlier as it was with Harper.
 

brett05

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Seems like a bit of a cop-out to me. Harper's year stood out as a clear outlier, doubling his previous best WAR. Bryant is just improving on an already excellent first season (6.5 fWAR) after addressing many of his weaknesses at the plate. Even if he had a 9+ WAR season next year, it wouldn't really be an outlier as it was with Harper.

Given his age, No one thought Harper's year was an outlier. They thought he finally came into his own which is why you saw all that money being talked about.
 

Gustavus Adolphus

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My favorite teams
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No bias here, because I'm not a Cubs fan. The top 5 everyday players going forward are:
1. Harper
2. Trout
3. Bryant
4. Machado
5. Altuve

I suppose that is the order I'd put them in.
 

fatbeard

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No bias here, because I'm not a Cubs fan. The top 5 everyday players going forward are:
1. Harper
2. Trout
3. Bryant
4. Machado
5. Altuve

I suppose that is the order I'd put them in.

Harper ahead of Trout? Bonkers. With another two 9 WAR seasons (something he does with regularity), Trout will have had a HOF career (65 fWAR) by age 27! Harper would have to average 10 WAR (an apparent singularity) over the next four years to get to the same point.
 

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