IST Cubs @ ARI

[TC in Mississippi]

I think short series are impossible to predict. Under some circumstances, I could see the Marlins taking a 3-of-5 series from the Red Sox. The exact same teams might end up a 15-game series with Boston winning 12 games, but the first five games could see Miami taking advantage of rare mistakes, etc. I mean, look at the Reds owning the Dodgers this year -- and no one would suggest the Reds are, at base, a better team than LA.

The Dodgers were not that much better than the Cubs last year, as far as the teams themselves were concerned. That NLCS was a classic example of two pretty evenly matched teams where one went cold and hit into the worst luck possible, and the other got so hot that their pitcher could have bunted and hit the ball out of the park. It was that hard of a swing and counter-swing between the two teams.

I always look at the post-season as a total crapshoot. The goal is to get into it. Once there, it's nice to be Goliath, but you always have to be aware that your next opponent might be David...

Agree with the playoffs being somewhat of a crap shoot but they're also different from a competitive standpoint. Look at how the Cubs owned the Mets in the regular season in 2015 and got killed by them in the NLCS. The 5 game series is why I do not want to play St. Louis or Milwaukee. They know how to beat us. It isn't everything but facing teams you've faced 19 times in the regular season is not my ideal opponent in a 5 game series. Of course I hate that the NLDS is 5 games and hate even more that the WC is 1, but that's a topic for another day.

 

[Diehardfan]

Agree with the playoffs being somewhat of a crap shoot but they're also different from a competitive standpoint. Look at how the Cubs owned the Mets in the regular season in 2015 and got killed by them in the NLCS. The 5 game series is why I do not want to play St. Louis or Milwaukee. They know how to beat us. It isn't everything but facing teams you've faced 19 times in the regular season is not my ideal opponent in a 5 game series. Of course I hate that the NLDS is 5 games and hate even more that the WC is 1, but that's a topic for another day.

Can't say that i disagree with you but to lengthen anything throws the season into mid November. Now if its the Dodgers vs the A's....no problem. Cubs vs the Red Sox...now that changes things. 35-45 degree temps is not what the game was designed for plus it's the most important time of the season. The trade off...a 154 games season?

 

[Diehardfan]

Yes. Well done, Cubs. If the Cubs finish the division off and get 95 wins, surely Maddon is in line for MOY.

Now if the people who vote on this had a single operative brain cell, you would be correct. But CubsfaninMN is right, they will give it to the guy whose team wasn't expected to win. They should just change it to MUWM.....as in Most Unexpected Winning Manager. God forbid they ever gave it to a guy who had to manage his team around multiple obstacles to win...that would just make too much sense.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Can't say that i disagree with you but to lengthen anything throws the season into mid November. Now if its the Dodgers vs the A's....no problem. Cubs vs the Red Sox...now that changes things. 35-45 degree temps is not what the game was designed for plus it's the most important time of the season. The trade off...a 154 games season?

The tradeoff is either 154 games or more day/night double headers. Teams really should consider those a couple of times a week and give the players some more days off. Teams that are deeper are going to win, so that would likely not pass the owner test.

 

[Diehardfan]

The tradeoff is either 154 games or more day/night double headers. Teams really should consider those a couple of times a week and give the players some more days off. Teams that are deeper are going to win, so that would likely not pass the owner test.

Interesting thought. I used to love DHers when I was a kid. The only problem with that is the weather....Cubs just had the weather stuck up their behinds. To keep the extra days off, you'd need even more DH's to compensate. It was 154 games for many, many years....the players would have to give back about what, about 9% of their salary to compensate for 8 less gates? Now, there is the real problem with 154.....

 

[Parade_Rain]

Interesting thought. I used to love DHers when I was a kid. The only problem with that is the weather....Cubs just had the weather stuck up their behinds. To keep the extra days off, you'd need even more DH's to compensate. It was 154 games for many, many years....the players would have to give back about what, 9% or their salary to compensate for 8 less gates? Now, there is the real problem with 154.....

Yes, but if we are trying to get mote playoff games, perhaps there is a way to share a bit of the revenue from those extra games to all teams making up for it.

 

[Diehardfan]

Yes, but if we are trying to get mote playoff games, perhaps there is a way to share a bit of the revenue from those extra games to all teams making up for it.

Not a bad idea...those are high priced ticketed venues that are generally sold out. Sharing that might look good to a lot of teams that don't draw flies, particularly at the tail end of the season....but teams like Boston, NY or the Cubs probably wouldn't be interested. Players would still have to give up money...it's funny, with all the money they make you just know they wouldn't do it.

 

[SilenceS]

I don't know enough about the Dodgers, but the slight chance of 4% over the Cubs, I'm wondering if that has to do with the Cubs recent scoring struggles or the relief pitching injuries. Thoughts?

The Dodgers jumped way up after the all star break because they traded for Machado. I remember reading an article about it. They have been favorites over Cubs since then. It really didn’t make sense.


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[CSF77]

The Dodgers jumped way up after the all star break because they traded for Machado. I remember reading an article about it. They have been favorites over Cubs since then. It really didn’t make sense.


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NL doesn’t scare me this year. Mil is the 2nd best team in it.

AL has 3 teams that can flat out beat the Cubs up. Oakland I don’t see getting out of the 1 game. But Clevland is the weakest team and they are on par with most NL teams in there.

The only team beating the Cubs in the NL is themselves. No team is flat out better. It has more to do with Chi’s O sputtering.

LA/NY adds 5 wins. ESPN vote.

 

[Diehardfan]

The Dodgers jumped way up after the all star break because they traded for Machado. I remember reading an article about it. They have been favorites over Cubs since then. It really didn’t make sense.


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Jansen being something less than all worldly has kind of balanced the scales a bit from the Machado addition. I guess it can happen to anyone but his ERA is up, walks are up, HRs allowed up....the only thing down is his K's. He still gets his saves though.

 

[fatbeard]

The tradeoff is either 154 games or more day/night double headers. Teams really should consider those a couple of times a week and give the players some more days off. Teams that are deeper are going to win, so that would likely not pass the owner test.

Would also not pass the "loss of 8 games of revenue" test.

They should trim the season a bit, but it'll never happen.

 

[beckdawg]

Re: the questions about the dodgers fangraphs probability, they addressed it in an article recently. The short version of it is that if they make the playoffs the models like their team better. They didn't go in and say exactly how they figure which team is better but their run diff is +153. The cubs run diff is +121. So, it's not entirely unreasonable to think they are a better team though I think that giving them a 42.5% vs the cubs 26.7% chance to win the LCS seems high to me before you take account of the fact they aren't a lock to win the division/wc.

 

[SilenceS]

Re: the questions about the dodgers fangraphs probability, they addressed it in an article recently. The short version of it is that if they make the playoffs the models like their team better. They didn't go in and say exactly how they figure which team is better but their run diff is +153. The cubs run diff is +121. So, it's not entirely unreasonable to think they are a better team though I think that giving them a 42.5% vs the cubs 26.7% chance to win the LCS seems high to me before you take account of the fact they aren't a lock to win the division/wc.

I didnt read that article but the one I read had them just dominating the second half and it didnt happen. Walker Beuhler has been there saving grace. I think Kershaw is still rated super high and he isnt this myth of a man that he was or could be. This may be the homer in me, but Dodgers dont scare me at all.

 

[fatbeard]

I didnt read that article but the one I read had them just dominating the second half and it didnt happen. Walker Beuhler has been there saving grace. I think Kershaw is still rated super high and he isnt this myth of a man that he was or could be. This may be the homer in me, but Dodgers dont scare me at all.

I'm not particularly worried about the Dodgers either. Unless it's a five game series, but ALL five game series worry me.

 

[beckdawg]

I didnt read that article but the one I read had them just dominating the second half and it didnt happen. Walker Beuhler has been there saving grace. I think Kershaw is still rated super high and he isnt this myth of a man that he was or could be. This may be the homer in me, but Dodgers dont scare me at all.

Yeah I mean I think it's a fairly even series if they end up playing. Like... last year I felt the dodgers were more scary than this years team given the make up of the two respective teams. With the way the cubs are pitching(tonight thus far not withstanding for Hamels), I really like them going into the playoffs. Kershaw might go out and shut you down for 2 of 7 games but it's also possible the cubs match him with their starter at which point it becomes a bullpen game. If Strop doesn't come back that is a bit worrying but if he does I like the cubs pen better.

 

[TL1961]

After what seems like 100 nights in hotels this year, I finally paid attention to the default screen that comes on when I turn on the TV

Found it easy to send my mlbtv from phone to the TV screen. Just in time to see Dbacks score 4 in the first.

I blame myself for this deficit. ?

 

[TL1961]

That’s OK. I think Hamels has earned a mulligan.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Brewers win. Cardinals lose.

 

[Diehardfan]

Didn't see much of the game tonight which is probably a blessing. Would've been nice to sweep them with Hamel pitching but before this series started I thought if they could take 2 of 3, it would be great. They did that....so let's gear it up for the Sox this weekend.

 

[zack54attack]

Well, tonight sucked.