IST: Cubs @ Braves

[MRubio52]

Without me getting super negative, I think trading him would be an absolute catastrophe. I would equate that kind of deal with what Loria did after the Marlins opened their new stadium. That would be an absolute disservice to the fans and the rest of the team. If you wanted to trade him, you should've done it at the Winter Meetings. Now, the guy is proving a point that he needs to be here long-term and deserves to get paid accordingly. Unless Minnesota calls you and is willing to give up Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer, you give him a Homer Bailey-type deal right now and lock him up.

Ultimately the thing with me is that I don't think Samardzija is a frontline starter even given the current performance. I don't think 8 starts is enough to really prove to me that much of his profile has changed. I think he's a great #3 starter who can act like a #2 from time to time, but I don't think he's an ace and I don't think he's as good as he is now.

I mean, 200 IP of 3.00-3.75 ERA has value and I think he can supply that but he's 29 and although the arm is young, the body isn't and those football hits he accrued in college are something that people conveniently leave out when it comes to his durability. This wasn't a QB we're talking about, this was a WR and when it comes to pitching the entire body matters and there is mileage and age on his.

I think if you had gotten Stroman, Sanchez and Tirado from Toronto you make that trade, and if you had gotten Skaggs back in a package you also make that trade. I don't think this is Cliff Lee we're dealing with here, I don't think he has the command to turn into an ace.

 

[CSF77]

Unless Minnesota calls you and is willing to give up Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer, you give him a Homer Bailey-type deal right now and lock him up.

He deserves a Bailey deal. He is not going to net that return.

I see Balt and Tor. kicking the tires. After Buehrle there is a drop off. He would look good with Buehrle.

O's lack a Ace but I doubt they are going to dump off more talent to the Cubs. Never know though.

I believe that they will offer the cash but not the no trade. If that is a deal breaker he will get traded.

 

[CSF77]

I think if you had gotten Stroman, Sanchez and Tirado from Toronto you make that trade, and if you had gotten Skaggs back in a package you also make that trade. I don't think this is Cliff Lee we're dealing with here, I don't think he has the command to turn into an ace.

Really? He has been pretty stable this year. 2 hits 1 BB and 7 SO's in 6 IP. Lowered his ERA to 1.45. 56 IP 44 hits 15 BB 1 IBB 45 SO's.

You put a real O ahead of him he should be 6-1 at least.

 

[JosMin]

Ultimately the thing with me is that I don't think Samardzija is a frontline starter even given the current performance. I don't think 8 starts is enough to really prove to me that much of his profile has changed. I think he's a great #3 starter who can act like a #2 from time to time, but I don't think he's an ace and I don't think he's as good as he is now.

I mean, 200 IP of 3.00-3.75 ERA has value and I think he can supply that but he's 29 and although the arm is young, the body isn't and those football hits he accrued in college are something that people conveniently leave out when it comes to his durability. This wasn't a QB we're talking about, this was a WR and when it comes to pitching the entire body matters and there is mileage and age on his.

I think if you had gotten Stroman, Sanchez and Tirado from Toronto you make that trade, and if you had gotten Skaggs back in a package you also make that trade. I don't think this is Cliff Lee we're dealing with here, I don't think he has the command to turn into an ace.

He doesn't. I don't think there's anyone who believes he possesses an ace ceiling. But he's durable, he has the build to be a guy who pitches 180+ innings every year, and he has the stuff to have ace-like stretches. To me, if the "football" was going to prove to cause durability issues, they would've already started happening, especially now that he's been a starter for 400+ innings. Whether you're a contender or a cellar dweller, those guys are of paramount importance. When you consider the Cubs don't have anyone in their system that projects to be an ace anyway, why not lock up the sure thing? If he's a 13-15 game winner who gives you an ERA somewhere in the 3s and pitches 180-210 innings, isn't that more valuable long-term then guys who need continued development when you already don't have any pitchers who realistically project to be any better than Samardzija? Like I said, I agree with you that he'll never be an ace. But I also don't think the clock is going to strike midnight and he suddenly turns into Joe fucking Blanton, either. If he is what he is, that's fine. And in today's MLB, he's going to cost you $16-20 million a season. Them's the breaks.

Will you have to overpay to keep him? Sure. But any team who inquires about his services will have to overpay for the Cubs to get rid of him. It's a double-edged sword. There's nobody readily available on the 40-man that could even come close to replacing Samardzija if he were dealt, nor do I think there's a team willing to give up a pitching prospect that's close enough to the majors that can do what Samardzija's offered the Cubs over the last 18 months. I don't think any ace-ceiling prospects are available, and if they were, they aren't on the type of contending teams who'd be willing to mortgage prospects on the chance that Samardzija pushes them from contender to favorite.

Seattle is going to win 80 games, tops. You think they give up Tijuan Walker when they won't get past the Angels, Texas or Oakland? What about Toronto? Everyone throws around Sanchez and Stroman like they're saviors and the reality is Sanchez is still at least 12 months away and Stroman is a carbon-copy of CJ Edwards -- who, again, has a #2 starter ceiling if all the chips fall the right way. And adding Samardzija isn't pushing Toronto past the buzz saw of the AL East without adding another frontline starter to their rotation. And after Sanchez and Stroman, what would be left for them to trade to get that other guy? No other prospect in their system projects over a 55. I just don't see it.

Bottom line is this -- if you don't pay Samardzija the money he'll command on the open market, then you're just forcing yourself to prolong the obvious and pay somebody else that money.

 

[CSF77]

Other topic:

Any feel on Kalish hitting #2? My opinion is Schierholtz has sucked this year. I didn't mind seeing that change.

other than that they should bump Castro up to #3. Rizzo to #4 and Lake/Olt 4/5 depending on how is hitting better. Valbuena...outside of a walk he is a 1-5 hitter on avg. Rather not have him killing innings.

 

[MRubio52]

He doesn't. I don't think there's anyone who believes he possesses an ace ceiling. But he's durable, he has the build to be a guy who pitches 180+ innings every year, and he has the stuff to have ace-like stretches. To me, if the "football" was going to prove to cause durability issues, they would've already started happening, especially now that he's been a starter for 400+ innings. Whether you're a contender or a cellar dweller, those guys are of paramount importance. When you consider the Cubs don't have anyone in their system that projects to be an ace anyway, why not lock up the sure thing? If he's a 13-15 game winner who gives you an ERA somewhere in the 3s and pitches 180-210 innings, isn't that more valuable long-term then guys who need continued development when you already don't have any pitchers who realistically project to be any better than Samardzija? Like I said, I agree with you that he'll never be an ace. But I also don't think the clock is going to strike midnight and he suddenly turns into Joe fucking Blanton, either. If he is what he is, that's fine. And in today's MLB, he's going to cost you $16-20 million a season. Them's the breaks.

Will you have to overpay to keep him? Sure. But any team who inquires about his services will have to overpay for the Cubs to get rid of him. It's a double-edged sword. There's nobody readily available on the 40-man that could even come close to replacing Samardzija if he were dealt, nor do I think there's a team willing to give up a pitching prospect that's close enough to the majors that can do what Samardzija's offered the Cubs over the last 18 months. I don't think any ace-ceiling prospects are available, and if they were, they aren't on the type of contending teams who'd be willing to mortgage prospects on the chance that Samardzija pushes them from contender to favorite.

Seattle is going to win 80 games, tops. You think they give up Tijuan Walker? What about Toronto? Everyone throws around Sanchez and Stroman like they're saviors and the reality is Sanchez is still at least 12 months away and Stroman is a carbon-copy of CJ Edwards -- who, again, has a #2 starter ceiling if all the chips fall the right way. And adding Samardzija isn't pushing Toronto past the buzz saw of the AL East without adding another frontline starter to their rotation. And after Sanchez and Stroman, what would be left for them to trade to get that other guy? No other prospect in their system projects over a 55. I just don't see it.

Bottom line is this -- if you don't pay Samardzija the money he'll command on the open market, then you're just forcing yourself to prolong the obvious and pay somebody else that money.

A #2 ceiling isn't anything to scoff at and Stroman is much, much better than CJ Edwards. They aren't the same at all. Stroman is built, strong legs and a powerful body. He has a much higher ceiling than Edwards and is the better prospect.

 

[MRubio52]

Really? He has been pretty stable this year. 2 hits 1 BB and 7 SO's in 6 IP. Lowered his ERA to 1.45. 56 IP 44 hits 15 BB 1 IBB 45 SO's.

You put a real O ahead of him he should be 6-1 at least.

Don't really care about the W-L record, I know that his K% is down and his K-BB ratio is worse than it's ever been this year. I don't expect a collapse but I'm taking the over on a 2.25 ERA.

 

[JosMin]

A #2 ceiling isn't anything to scoff at and Stroman is much, much better than CJ Edwards. They aren't the same at all. Stroman is built, strong legs and a powerful body. He has a much higher ceiling than Edwards and is the better prospect.

We agree to disagree on Stroman. I really don't think his peripherals are so much better than Edwards that you give up Samardzija's control for him. I admit that Stroman's stuff is a bit more 'advanced' than Edwards, given they're the same age, but both of them have two plus offerings and still need to develop a third pitch if they want to be sure-thing starters. Granted, I've seen more Edwards highlights/vids since he's a Cub, but what I have seen of Stroman, I wouldn't say his ceiling is "that" much better.

And if Stroman truly is the more advanced pitcher, then why would the Blue Jays give up on him when he just got called up and they'll eventually stretch him out to be a starter? Wouldn't he be more valuable to them staying put with all the salary control as opposed to shelling out $100+ million to Samardzija? I guess that's my beef with the handling of Samardzija by the Cubs -- his value was maximized this Winter, in terms of salary control, age, etc. If he keeps pitching like this, then yes, somebody might just completely blow the Cubs away with an offer, then you deal him. But as far as the current landscape goes, any of those teams in need of a starter don't have the organizational depth to make that kind of an offer. If a so-so team like Toronto does, then by all means, go for it. But I'm not sure Alex A is going to take that kind of risk, given how shitty the Dickey trade has worked out so far.

 

[MRubio52]

We agree to disagree on Stroman. I really don't think his peripherals are so much better than Edwards that you give up Samardzija's control for him. I admit that Stroman's stuff is a bit more 'advanced' than Edwards, given they're the same age, but both of them have two plus offerings and still need to develop a third pitch if they want to be sure-thing starters. Granted, I've seen more Edwards highlights/vids since he's a Cub, but what I have seen of Stroman, I wouldn't say his ceiling is "that" much better.

And if Stroman truly is the more advanced pitcher, then why would the Blue Jays give up on him when he just got called up and they'll eventually stretch him out to be a starter? Wouldn't he be more valuable to them staying put with all the salary control as opposed to shelling out $100+ million to Samardzija? I guess that's my beef with the handling of Samardzija by the Cubs -- his value was maximized this Winter, in terms of salary control, age, etc. If he keeps pitching like this, then yes, somebody might just completely blow the Cubs away with an offer, then you deal him. But as far as the current landscape goes, any of those teams in need of a starter don't have the organizational depth to make that kind of an offer. If a so-so team like Toronto does, then by all means, go for it. But I'm not sure Alex A is going to take that kind of risk, given how shitty the Dickey trade has worked out so far.

Stroman has a plus plus fastball and slider with a plus cutter and an ok change. I think he also has the durability and given the choice between the two prospects I'm taking Stroman all day and it's not particularly close. I have no idea what the Blue Jays are planning but teams like the Cardinals and Rays use the 'pen as a transitional period in between a callup and a full time starter's role. It's a plan as old as Earl Weaver.

The Blue Jays are trying to win now, and with all the pitching issues they've been having they don't really care about the Super 2 stuff since they aren't really built for a long haul.

 

[SilenceS]

I think you over value Stroman here. 5'9 185 that no one really has any idea if he can be a starter. He really would have to develop the change to be above average for him to stay a starter.

Shark may never be an Ace, but power arms with durability are a premium. He starts the game hitting 95 and above and can finish a game at 95 and above. He has shown no arm trouble or any trouble of breaking down. You bring up his body being hit as a reciever. I dont think that really matters because that was what? 8 years ago the last time he took a snap. He wasnt a running back. He wasnt getting crushed every play and his body has shown no signs of stress anywhere from it. To trade Shark would be a huge mistake. The Cubs will not get the package back to justify it. He shouldnt be traded because of the money. The Cubs have a ton of it they are not spending. If he is traded, it should be because the package was unbelievable not financial reasons. As of right now, the Cubs are looking to trade him based on financial reasons. The Cubs traded Cashner for Rizzo which jury is still out, but thats another power arm the Cubs let go that is excelling.

Oh, and by Hoffman going down in college. The Cubs are going to be in a tough spot to draft a pitcher in the first round next year. The Cubs have no future potential aces even close. You cant just keep trading away proven guys for prospects and hope one day it just comes together. The Cubs have money and a farm now. Do whats right and not whats best for Ricketts pocket.

 

[beckdawg]

Ultimately the thing with me is that I don't think Samardzija is a frontline starter even given the current performance. I don't think 8 starts is enough to really prove to me that much of his profile has changed. I think he's a great #3 starter who can act like a #2 from time to time, but I don't think he's an ace and I don't think he's as good as he is now.

I mean, 200 IP of 3.00-3.75 ERA has value and I think he can supply that but he's 29 and although the arm is young, the body isn't and those football hits he accrued in college are something that people conveniently leave out when it comes to his durability. This wasn't a QB we're talking about, this was a WR and when it comes to pitching the entire body matters and there is mileage and age on his.

I think if you had gotten Stroman, Sanchez and Tirado from Toronto you make that trade, and if you had gotten Skaggs back in a package you also make that trade. I don't think this is Cliff Lee we're dealing with here, I don't think he has the command to turn into an ace.

My problem is you can't trade him for a Sanchez plus a 5-10 prospect and a throw in. That's at best just a wash and likely you losing value. And even if you get Stroman and Sanchez it's possible that neither is a even as good as a #3. That Toronto package is probably the most appealing because Stroman is ready for the MLB. But if they are talking to someone else I don't think you can take a Edwards like prospect as the headliner. You need someone in AA and preferably AAA.

So, while I don't like that Shark is 29 and i'm not sure he's more like you're saying, I'm not sure the package you can realistically get back is going to be worth losing him. I honestly feel they need to get a Shields level of package back which is to say a top 25 prospect plus what they got for Garza but I don't know who's going to pay that. If you trade him and presumably Hammel what's that leave you with? You'll have Wood and Arrieta as longer term pieces with Jackson who's been ok the past couple starts but crap most of the rest of the time here. Hendricks could fill in a rotation spot but then you're still missing a front line starter. Johnson and Edwards are both likely 2 years away if not more. And while there's likely to be a couple of decent starters like Masterson and possibly Shields next year in FA, we've seen with Tanaka that to get those guys you're going to over pay which this front office thus far hasn't been willing to do.

If that all does indeed happen you're maybe have a better offense next year but then the pitching is holding the team back and you're in the same situation you are this year only in reverse.

 

[CSF77]

If you trade him for 2 pitchers who will be in the rotation in 5 years then you do it.

Thread has gone off topic I would think.

 

[beckdawg]

Russell's been pretty garbage this year. Jackson isn't pitching amazing but he is lowering his ERA so that's a plus considering he's sorta stuck here. Hits also came today but no runs. Hopefully Jackson can get down to a 4ish era and maybe he has some minor trade value but I doubt it.