IST: Cubs @ Reds

[CSF77]

He also has the most upside if you get to his peak.

Debatable. I think Happ is a 30 HR guy myself

 

[beckdawg]

Debatable. I think Happ is a 30 HR guy myself

Eh I don't think it's really that debatable if you're going on pure upside. If you're going on probable upside then yeah I can see your argument. But Baez is probably a gold glove caliber defender at 3B and 2B, probably has 35 HR power and can steal 20-25 bases. Now I don't think he quite reaches that upside but it is there. Happ just isn't that good defensively. He's probably average or slightly below average at 2B. He's below average to poor in CF and his arm is on the weaker side in the OF. It's not terrible but I think ideally if he's in the OF it's LF. Think he's only playing CF now because it allows them to fit other pieces.

All that being said I do like Happ a lot at 2B. I think he's a bit Ian Kinsler with less speed and more K's.

 

[CSF77]

1 HR/ 13.25 AB right now for Happ. Just projecting that over 500 AB's 37 HR's. Honestly I doubt that he will do that much but that is the amount of loft that is in his swing.

Taking it to what Schwarber did his rook season. 1 HR per 14.5 AB. So he is at a faster pace than Schwarber pulled off.

Bryant's rook season: 1 per 21.5 AB's.

Rizzo's. 1 every 22.4.

I understand peek potential but Happ is in reality on the highest rookie pace of any of these guys.

For that matter Bryant's MVP season 1 every 15.5 AB's he got ahold of one.

Now he has to be able to sustain this over a full grind but this year to date he is at 21 HR's combined at 263 AB's. 1 in every 12.5 AB's. That is unheard of for a run.

 

[beckdawg]

Happ is definitely locked in. And I wasn't so much debating the HR numbers just that Baez if he reaches his peak is more well rounded. The other thing is scouting on Happ suggests average power. I don't necessarily agree with that based on his performance but you can't always scout the numbers. I'd have to look into the data but I'm guessing he has a lot of HR's that aren't particularly deep. In other words, my guess is he's just squaring balls up really well right now where as someone with more pure power might be able to miss a little and still take it deep.

Honestly though the HR's aren't really that big of a deal in my book. I like that he's a switch hitter who's shown some ability to hit for average and has a good walk rate. HR's are just gravy. He just fits the mold of almost every player the cubs have since Theo joined. Baez really doesn't fit that profile which makes sense given he was added prior to them coming around.

Regardless, I'll I'm really getting at here is Baez is sort of a scouts dream. He has loud tools. So far the defense and speed translate but his bat hasn't really. But if you think there's upside still in his bat he's a very intriguing trade piece. As a below average hitter(94 wRC+) last year he was worth 2.7 fWAR. If the bat takes another step forward that is a big deal. And honestly if you're a team selling, I think you shoot for a potential star. Happ seems pretty good but I'm not sure you build a franchise around him. If Baez hits like he theoretically can, that's the type of player you build a team around.

 

[CSF77]

Happ is definitely locked in. And I wasn't so much debating the HR numbers just that Baez if he reaches his peak is more well rounded. The other thing is scouting on Happ suggests average power. I don't necessarily agree with that based on his performance but you can't always scout the numbers. I'd have to look into the data but I'm guessing he has a lot of HR's that aren't particularly deep. In other words, my guess is he's just squaring balls up really well right now where as someone with more pure power might be able to miss a little and still take it deep.

Honestly though the HR's aren't really that big of a deal in my book. I like that he's a switch hitter who's shown some ability to hit for average and has a good walk rate. HR's are just gravy. He just fits the mold of almost every player the cubs have since Theo joined. Baez really doesn't fit that profile which makes sense given he was added prior to them coming around.

Regardless, I'll I'm really getting at here is Baez is sort of a scouts dream. He has loud tools. So far the defense and speed translate but his bat hasn't really. But if you think there's upside still in his bat he's a very intriguing trade piece. As a below average hitter(94 wRC+) last year he was worth 2.7 fWAR. If the bat takes another step forward that is a big deal. And honestly if you're a team selling, I think you shoot for a potential star. Happ seems pretty good but I'm not sure you build a franchise around him. If Baez hits like he theoretically can, that's the type of player you build a team around.

fair enough.

My opinion is Happ is a better clean up than Zobrist was last year. 2B is fine for him. They do need a every day lead off. That is where the whole Span thing kinda makes sense. My issue is it is short term solution vs a long term solution.

This team needs a replacement for Fowler. They have 2 internal guys that might fit the bill. Jacob Hannemann at AAA. hit 40/ 65 field/65 run. I'm pretty much Meh on him myself. The guy I like is D.J. Wilson at SB. Injured but has a 50 hit 60 field and a 65 speed. Honestly he is 3 years out.

Jacob could be a temp lead off guy but his 40 hit just sucks in general.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm just not convinced the cubs need a lead off hitter. While it's true the 1 position for the cubs is hitting .235/.322/.488, 171 of the 381 PAs was Schwarber. If you take those out as that was obviously not a productive experience they are 51-186(.274) with 18 walks which is a .337 OBP.

Also for what it's worth baez is hitting .500/.444/1.250 out of the 1 position over 10 PAs. Zobrist isn't playing quite to the level you would expect but he's hit .244/.333/.556 out of the lead of spot over 51 PAs. Clearly they have some options here.

 

[CSF77]

Idk about that. The O clicked better with Fowler leading off. It started to do that again with Rizzo but you really saw a drop off lower in the order. Add to it Bryant performs better with Rizzo's support.

Ideally with what they have at full:

Happ
Bryant
Rizzo
Contreras
Heyward
Russell
Schwarber
Almora

That you your starting 9. Happ SO too much honestly. His HR power is his biggest asset and that plays up with OBA ahead of him.

Now Zobrist would be the next best solution but he would take AB's. If they push Almora again then CF suffers

Honestly what I would do is lead off with Almora. He makes contact. Has taken walks and runs the bases very well. If he proves to be capable it shuts the issue

 

[SilenceS]

Cubs win the World Series. One Cub makes the all star game this year. Fans are funny.

 

[Ari Bear]

IAN HAPP! :cubswin:

 

[TL1961]

Cubs win the World Series. One Cub makes the all star game this year. Fans are funny.

What does that mean, "fans are funny"? Meaning they didn't vote for Cubs who should be there?

Who?

They won the WS in 2016, and the fans voted for 2017 players worthy of an AS nod.

Cubs don't qualify.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

The Cubs didn't deserve to have any more all-stars and I guess the excitement just wasn't there to force one in. Last season an undeserving Addison Russell was able to be a starter just because Cubs fans felt like it lol

 

[beckdawg]

Idk about that. The O clicked better with Fowler leading off. It started to do that again with Rizzo but you really saw a drop off lower in the order. Add to it Bryant performs better with Rizzo's support.

Ideally with what they have at full:

Happ
Bryant
Rizzo
Contreras
Heyward
Russell
Schwarber
Almora

That you your starting 9. Happ SO too much honestly. His HR power is his biggest asset and that plays up with OBA ahead of him.

Now Zobrist would be the next best solution but he would take AB's. If they push Almora again then CF suffers

Honestly what I would do is lead off with Almora. He makes contact. Has taken walks and runs the bases very well. If he proves to be capable it shuts the issue

I don't think you really have to have one guy to fit every situation. Think you rotate a couple guys depending on match ups with Zobrist being the primary guy.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs den:

Don’t look back Albert Almora, Charcer Burks is gaining on you!

This is not meant to disparage Albert Almora. He is a fine defensive outfielder. But Almora’s current .259 batting average and .330 on-base percentage (as of Saturday) are more in line with the minor league numbers he put up in 2014 and 2015 rather than his Pacific Coast League inflated .303 average last year. It is believed that what you now see with Almora is what you are going to get, with perhaps a good year or two thrown in. However, the organization operational needs suggest a different path.

For those who have not been paying any attention, the Cubs offense has lacked a consistent leadoff hitter all season. Burks has led off 221 times in his career to Almora’s six times. If you don’t believe something like that matters, ask Kyle Schwarber. In his time at leadoff, Burks has batted .272 with 16 home runs and 48 stolen bases. This goes along with Burks' career .362 on-base percentage and .750 OPS, compared to Almora’s .323 and .740 numbers overall.

As far as defensively, there is not much if any drop off between the two. Burks has won a minor league Gold Glove, and is well on his way to earning another this season. Almora has more assists and perhaps a slightly stronger throwing arm.

In a final note, Burks will have to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season or the Cubs could lose him in the Rule 5 Draft.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly I didn't notice him. Maybe he is the guy they are targeting to lead off and start in CF

 

[CSF77]

I don't think you really have to have one guy to fit every situation. Think you rotate a couple guys depending on match ups with Zobrist being the primary guy.

Zo should be a bench guy in his final year. He has proven over the last 2 years that his body will break down playing every day. Love him but have to be real

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly I didn't notice him. Maybe he is the guy they are targeting to lead off and start in CF

I'd mentioned he was one to keep an eye on in the prospect thread. I'm not 100% sure he's an every day player. He may end up being more of a bench OF but the guy can hit. I'd expect when people update midseason lists for him to be among the cubs top 30.

As for Zobrist, like I said you don't have to have 1 guy to fill all situations. We know how Maddon uses a line up. He plays basically everyone so even if Zobrist is a bench guy a year or two from now he's going to see a lot of time. As I said before, I think you can find favorable match ups for the lead off hitter and play several guys there.

 

[CSF77]

I'd mentioned he was one to keep an eye on in the prospect thread. I'm not 100% sure he's an every day player. He may end up being more of a bench OF but the guy can hit. I'd expect when people update midseason lists for him to be among the cubs top 30.

As for Zobrist, like I said you don't have to have 1 guy to fill all situations. We know how Maddon uses a line up. He plays basically everyone so even if Zobrist is a bench guy a year or two from now he's going to see a lot of time. As I said before, I think you can find favorable match ups for the lead off hitter and play several guys there.

I honestly think Joe plays the odds and has fav's. He was playing Schwarber every day regardless. Makes me think it was a developmental mandate.

Almora did not so I'm thinking is they were thinking of him as a platoon guy anyways.

Bryant, Rizzo Heyward every day players.

Catcher for the most part was starter's preference.

Russell is every day but his shoulder is forcing Joe to rest him.

I'm thinking Joe went into the season thinking CF and 2B were his rotation spots. Every one else was based off if he felt they needed a day off to reset. Injury and lack of production has derailed that.

On Burke. I really haven't looked at him but seeing he is going back to back GG and is pounding a pitcher's league you expect AAA to be a cake walk. I see regression at the major league level.

He is RH so there is no platoon with Almora. But he brings better numbers to the plate and plus speed.

He is a guy that they should muse in CF

 

[beckdawg]

He is RH so there is no platoon with Almora. But he brings better numbers to the plate and plus speed.

Depends. I haven't looked at his splits. Almora had trouble with LHP last year and that flipped this year. Not 100% what to make of that. Last year his splits were .262/.279/.548 and .286/.324/.400 L/R. This year they are .353/.468/.549 and .216/.256/.297 L/R over roughly similar sample. Just took a quick look at Burks this year. He's hitting .256/.356/.436 and .320/.411/.465 L/R. So, assuming that split holds over the long haul for both you could platoon them.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs den:

Don’t look back Albert Almora, Charcer Burks is gaining on you!

This is not meant to disparage Albert Almora. He is a fine defensive outfielder. But Almora’s current .259 batting average and .330 on-base percentage (as of Saturday) are more in line with the minor league numbers he put up in 2014 and 2015 rather than his Pacific Coast League inflated .303 average last year. It is believed that what you now see with Almora is what you are going to get, with perhaps a good year or two thrown in. However, the organization operational needs suggest a different path.

For those who have not been paying any attention, the Cubs offense has lacked a consistent leadoff hitter all season. Burks has led off 221 times in his career to Almora’s six times. If you don’t believe something like that matters, ask Kyle Schwarber. In his time at leadoff, Burks has batted .272 with 16 home runs and 48 stolen bases. This goes along with Burks' career .362 on-base percentage and .750 OPS, compared to Almora’s .323 and .740 numbers overall.

As far as defensively, there is not much if any drop off between the two. Burks has won a minor league Gold Glove, and is well on his way to earning another this season. Almora has more assists and perhaps a slightly stronger throwing arm.

In a final note, Burks will have to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season or the Cubs could lose him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Maybe that why they go get a guy like Span to hold down CF til Burks ready next year...

They can use Almora in a deal for a SP at deadline

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

Maybe that why they go get a guy like Span to hold down CF til Burks ready next year...

They can use Almora in a deal for a SP at deadline

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I really don't get this line of thinking. If you're going to go with Burks why bother getting Span? Like I wouldn't trade Almora personally but if the idea is he's bait for a more pressing SP need then fine. Do that, play Happ/Jay/Heyward in CF for the next year or so til Burks is ready. What's Span realistically do here? He's not making this team go from where it is to the playoffs. And more to the point he's HORRIBLE in CF. He's -14 DRS already this year and the past 2 years has been -10+ UZR/150. So any value his bat does provide is immediately offset by his deficiencies on defense. It's just a dumb trade idea which given it came from Lavine isn't that surprising.