IST: Cubs @ Rockies

[chibears55]

7th time through rotation they got good starts from
Lester 7 IP 1 ER
Lackey 7 IP 0 ER
Hendricks 6.1 IP 0 ER
And looking to only win 1 of those 3 starts..

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Unbelievable.. Team just finds way to lose now

Edit: Hendricks 6.1 IP 2 ER

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[chibears55]

.500 2 GB , 2 series coming up against teams ahead of them @SL, Home vs. reds.
Are they must win series or too early for that

I think they need to win Series to stay with them and to get some spark back into this team..

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[beckdawg]

I think they'd prefer Archer over Quintana..

They could always bring up Chesny Young 2B SS 3B as back up..

Caratini Baez Cease or another pitching prospect for Archer



me... If it would lessen the package given up, I'd trade Schwarber for either Quintana or Archer


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I'm not sure Young is really the back up SS you'd want. He's only played 358.2 innings there in the minors out of well over 2k but i suppose it largely depends on where you are health wise. As for Schwarber vs other parts, I don't think you want to do that. Whatever Schwarber may be he's got the highest upside of any player you'd talk about and at this point you'd rather have upside than depth. I mean for example what good does having Eloy, Happ, and Baez do if you can only play 1 of the 3? You'd be better of trading 2 of the 3 than Schwarber in that case because he's presumably going to be the best player of the bunch. That's more of an informed opinion than fact but Schwarber killed in the minors and has shown he can be a big force in the majors albeit not entirely to his potential. I'll take that over say Eloy's potential any day not that Eloy is bad.

 

[chibears55]

I'm not sure Young is really the back up SS you'd want. He's only played 358.2 innings there in the minors out of well over 2k but i suppose it largely depends on where you are health wise. As for Schwarber vs other parts, I don't think you want to do that. Whatever Schwarber may be he's got the highest upside of any player you'd talk about and at this point you'd rather have upside than depth. I mean for example what good does having Eloy, Happ, and Baez do if you can only play 1 of the 3? You'd be better of trading 2 of the 3 than Schwarber in that case because he's presumably going to be the best player of the bunch. That's more of an informed opinion than fact but Schwarber killed in the minors and has shown he can be a big force in the majors albeit not entirely to his potential. I'll take that over say Eloy's potential any day not that Eloy is bad.

Jiminez 19 yo probably 2 or 3 yrs away ..
Still need to get him AB in AA and then AAA
He still in A ball and I believe he still on DL and has yet to play..
There no rush on Jiminez and Schwarber could be gone by the time he comes up in 2 or 3 yrs.

One of Happ or Baez will probably be moved this off season if not by deadline..
I feel its going to be Baez

Playoff aside, when has Schwarber shown he a major league force to reckon with during regular season?
Nobody fearing him, their pitching to him now
First 12 games 14 walks 1 IBB
Last 18 games 9 walks 0 IBB 24 Ks

I go back to his last 100 AB in 2015, I just don't feel it with Schwarber..
He was great in the post seasons but I'm waiting to see him do that in regular season..

If they could use

Schwarber and prospect to get a starter in off season..

Baez, and prospects to get a starter by dealine..

They should consider it...







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[fatbeard]

.500 2 GB , 2 series coming up against teams ahead of them @SL, Home vs. reds.
Are they must win series or too early for that

I think they need to win Series to stay with them and to get some spark back into this team..

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LOL @ "must-win" games in May. Run along son, and let the adults discuss baseball.

 

[CSF77]

Looks like Hendricks gassed in the 7th. Only gave up 2 hits and a unearned run up til then.

I'm not sure what was up with the O but that game was on the O not on Hendricks.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure Young is really the back up SS you'd want. He's only played 358.2 innings there in the minors out of well over 2k but i suppose it largely depends on where you are health wise. As for Schwarber vs other parts, I don't think you want to do that. Whatever Schwarber may be he's got the highest upside of any player you'd talk about and at this point you'd rather have upside than depth. I mean for example what good does having Eloy, Happ, and Baez do if you can only play 1 of the 3? You'd be better of trading 2 of the 3 than Schwarber in that case because he's presumably going to be the best player of the bunch. That's more of an informed opinion than fact but Schwarber killed in the minors and has shown he can be a big force in the majors albeit not entirely to his potential. I'll take that over say Eloy's potential any day not that Eloy is bad.

Kyle has trade value but right now his value is pretty low. If he was hitting .300 then you could start talking him and a add for Q. Then think of promoting Happ for LF.

I'm just getting the feeling that this team is it. They would rather trade from the farm with the core being so young. Add to it they have 3 quality guys that are right there that they can offer. I'm thinking that the white sox are a ideal trade partner with them in overhaul mode and getting bulk players makes sense. Starting next year that team could be very dominate if they pulled the right deal for Q.

 

[beckdawg]

Playoff aside, when has Schwarber shown he a major league force to reckon with during regular season?

I'm not going to get into a long debate about Schwarber with you. You apparently feel about him like I felt about Baez a year or so ago which is fine. People are entitled to their opinions. I think you're wrong but whatever. I will say this however. Schwarber has 21 HRs in 420 PAs as a major league player and has hit .228/.343/.447. For reference, a typical major league player has about 650 PAs in a season which basically equates to ~33 HRs pro-rated over a full season. Admittedly that BA isn't what you want to see but do you have any idea how many people hit 30 HRs and have a > .340 OBP? Last year there were 18 players in the majors with more than 30 HR's and greater than a .335 OBP. You're talking about Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Adrian Beltre, Anthony Rizzo, Mookie Betts, Yoenis Cespedes, Kyle Seager, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez.

If you were starting a list of MVP candidates for a given year you'd be pretty safe going with this list. And that's before you even talk about what happens if and when he improves his batting average to something more respectable. This is why I think you're horribly underselling what he is now and what he can be. His upside is MASSIVE. I've read reports from people who've talked with scouts and some suggest he could be a .300/.400/.500 guy. I mean that's basically a Miguel Cabrera type bat.

 

[chibears55]

I'm not going to get into a long debate about Schwarber with you. You apparently feel about him like I felt about Baez a year or so ago which is fine. People are entitled to their opinions. I think you're wrong but whatever. I will say this however. Schwarber has 21 HRs in 420 PAs as a major league player and has hit .228/.343/.447. For reference, a typical major league player has about 650 PAs in a season which basically equates to ~33 HRs pro-rated over a full season. Admittedly that BA isn't what you want to see but do you have any idea how many people hit 30 HRs and have a > .340 OBP? Last year there were 18 players in the majors with more than 30 HR's and greater than a .335 OBP. You're talking about Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Adrian Beltre, Anthony Rizzo, Mookie Betts, Yoenis Cespedes, Kyle Seager, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez.

If you were starting a list of MVP candidates for a given year you'd be pretty safe going with this list. And that's before you even talk about what happens if and when he improves his batting average to something more respectable. This is why I think you're horribly underselling what he is now and what he can be. His upside is MASSIVE. I've read reports from people who've talked with scouts and some suggest he could be a .300/.400/.500 guy. I mean that's basically a Miguel Cabrera type bat.

We can agree to disagree on Schwarber..

But you do realize that his HR total and his career OBP stems mostly from his hot start in 2015..
I'm looking at more of how he finished 2015 and how he playing this year...

21 career HRs
His first 166 PA he had 12 HRs
His last 258 PA he has 9 HRs
Power has gone down a lot...

.342 career OBP
His first 74 PA .405 OBP
His last 350 PA .328 OBP
After his first month and half when he was hitting and walking a ton , he hasn't really done a whole lot of that the last month plus of 2015 and this year...


I like Schwarber and I hope he figures it out but as you can see he hasn't done much in regular season since first month or so when he came up in 2015 that impressive.
I didn't even do his strikeouts, which I'm sure is a high percentage rate...


I think we need to take Schwarber down off of the pedestal we (including myself) had him on, based on his hot start and playoff performance and see that he hasn't performed all that well in regular season to proclaim him as this great untouchable young player on this team, that shouldn't be benched or sent back to minors..

Maybe being away all last year and not playing, he could use the time and AB in minors to get his swing and focus back ...
Better to figure it out there then go another 50, 100, or however many AB it going to take to figure it out with the Cubs when their trying to win and compete for another championship run..





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[beckdawg]

But you do realize that his HR total and his career OBP stems mostly from his hot start in 2015..

I believe the term for this is cherry picking. You are choosing to view the negative rather than all of the information. You're also choosing to view what 300 PA sample size? That's roughly the shit first half dexter fowler had in 2015 that everyone bitched about before he came on hot in the second half. That's the really shitty(.222/.316/.389) second half rizzo had in 2013. I could go on and on here.

Again you can believe what you want but look at the facts staring you in the face. The cubs wouldn't deal Schwarber for Miller last season. Maddon arguably a top 3 manager in baseball chose to bat him lead off despite it being an odd fit for your historical lead off man. The team clearly has a huge belief in him. To put some context into this, where did Maddon bat guys like Baez and Russell at similar development points? Russell was the #9 hitter most of 2015 and batted 5th most of last year. Baez has been a lot farther down in the line up. Only other player really close to where Schwarber has been batting is Bryant.

I'm not saying Schwarber is a finished product. Hell, I remember having similar conversations with some on here about Rizzo after 2013. I said basically the same thing then for him as I'm saying now about Schwarber. I could dig into the specifics of why Schwarber is struggling but frankly there's people who are more mechanically inclined than me that can probably answer that better anyways. My guess is pitchers have found a weak area in his approach that he'll eventually have to iron out. Rizzo famously did this by moving closer to the plate. Bryant changed his swing plane. Point here being, he's walking at an insane clip. He's currently the 22nd highest walk rate in the majors with a wRC+ of 90. Of the 21 guys ahead of him only Ian Kinsler(94 wRC+), Chris Davis(107 wRC+), Ryan Schimpf(107 wRC+), and Brad Miller(99 wRC+) have a wRC+ under 110. When he starts hitting he is going to be a monster and the numbers show guys that walk at this sort of rate put up huge numbers. Last year only 11 players walked at 14% clip. They were Harper, Trout, Bautista, Votto, Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Donaldson, Zobrist, Fowler, Carlos Santana and Matt Carpenter.

And keep in mind this walk rate is when he's "struggling."

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth Bryant in his first 650 PAs had a 11.8% walk rate and a 30.6% k rate to go with 26 HRs. Schwarber through 420 is at 13.6%, 28.8%, and 21 respectively. Bryant did hit .275 but he also had a astronomically high .378 BABIP(fell to .332 last year). Schwarber is hitting .228 with a .279 BABIP.

 

[chibears55]

I believe the term for this is cherry picking. You are choosing to view the negative rather than all of the information. You're also choosing to view what 300 PA sample size? That's roughly the shit first half dexter fowler had in 2015 that everyone bitched about before he came on hot in the second half. That's the really shitty(.222/.316/.389) second half rizzo had in 2013. I could go on and on here.

Again you can believe what you want but look at the facts staring you in the face. The cubs wouldn't deal Schwarber for Miller last season. Maddon arguably a top 3 manager in baseball chose to bat him lead off despite it being an odd fit for your historical lead off man. The team clearly has a huge belief in him. To put some context into this, where did Maddon bat guys like Baez and Russell at similar development points? Russell was the #9 hitter most of 2015 and batted 5th most of last year. Baez has been a lot farther down in the line up. Only other player really close to where Schwarber has been batting is Bryant.

I'm not saying Schwarber is a finished product. Hell, I remember having similar conversations with some on here about Rizzo after 2013. I said basically the same thing then for him as I'm saying now about Schwarber. I could dig into the specifics of why Schwarber is struggling but frankly there's people who are more mechanically inclined than me that can probably answer that better anyways. My guess is pitchers have found a weak area in his approach that he'll eventually have to iron out. Rizzo famously did this by moving closer to the plate. Bryant changed his swing plane. Point here being, he's walking at an insane clip. He's currently the 22nd highest walk rate in the majors with a wRC+ of 90. Of the 21 guys ahead of him only Ian Kinsler(94 wRC+), Chris Davis(107 wRC+), Ryan Schimpf(107 wRC+), and Brad Miller(99 wRC+) have a wRC+ under 110. When he starts hitting he is going to be a monster and the numbers show guys that walk at this sort of rate put up huge numbers. Last year only 11 players walked at 14% clip. They were Harper, Trout, Bautista, Votto, Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Donaldson, Zobrist, Fowler, Carlos Santana and Matt Carpenter.

And keep in mind this walk rate is when he's "struggling."

Cherry picking? Sample size ?

I'm giving you exactly what he has done in his major league career to date...

He was hot his first career 75+ P.A.
He has struggled the 325+ P.A. after that.
That's fact

Walking? Is that what were hanging our hat on with him now?
Plus I showed how his walks totals has dropped some, that pitchers are pitching to him now..


I'm not saying he can't figure it out like Rizzo did, I hope he does..
Just saying til he does, I'm not putting him up there on a pedestal..

I think the best place for him to figure it out is in minors over continue to struggle on a team that supposed to contend to win now..

You keep comparing his overall numbers that keeps dropping game after game to players who has history of success, Schwarber has no history of success to tell us he going to turn this around...

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[CSF77]

I think you are making too big of a deal about a guy adjusting to major league pitching.

I seem to remember that Rizzo had to goto Iowa after his trade and even then struggled for a year before he settled in.

Let's just call it what it is. Learning curve.

 

[beckdawg]

He was hot his first career 75+ P.A.
He has struggled the 325+ P.A. after that.
That's fact

That's cherry picking. You're choosing to ignore good data and taking bad. You're also drawing conclusions on 300 PA sample size which is tiny. That's roughly the size of the sample size where Baez had over a 40% K rate when he first came up. You're going to continue to this. I've been here long enough to know this. But know that the data doesn't back you up. When he starts playing better that "hot start" is going to look average. You brush away his walk rate like it's nothing but the point you miss is that it's something that's already in place. He's playing poorly now yes but the MLB average this season for walk rate is 9.0% and he's 5% higher than that when playing poorly. When he starts hitting for average he's going to be in the .400 OBP range and probably over.

I get it. You don't see him hitting for average and are down on him because of that. However, I frankly don't think you understand data enough to know what are positive/negative signs. This goes back to comments you made about him being pull heavy. He's basically hitting the ball to all fields this season(40.0%/31.3%/28.8%). By comparison Rizzo is at 50.5%/28.8%/20.7% and Bryant is at 40.4%/33.7%/26.0%. He's near the league lead in pitches per plate appearance. If you look at Schwarbers soft/med/hard contact rates he's at 22.5%/47.5%/30.0%. Bryant and Rizzo are at 16.3%/54.8%/28.8% and 24.3%/47.7%/27.9%. Admittedly you would like to see the soft contact come down a little bit but despite him playing poorly he's got a higher hard contact rate than 2 MVP candidates last year. And the thing with the soft contact is he's probably just missed some pitches which also explains his .253 BABIP. That BABIP was .293 in 2015 and given the type of hitter it probably should be more in that .310+ range that Bryant and Rizzo typical are in.

Simply put, there's nothing in the data that suggests you should worry. It's likely he's just hitting into some bad BABIP. If you want something more scientific, he's likely just missing pitches and thus producing poorer results on balls in play but given he missed an entire season is that really surprising? It's entirely plausible his reaction time is a hair slow given that layoff and he's not seeing it as well as he can. He's at an 88 wRC+ right now. I'm willing to bet he's over 110 by the end of July.

 

[chibears55]

I think you are making too big of a deal about a guy adjusting to major league pitching.

I seem to remember that Rizzo had to goto Iowa after his trade and even then struggled for a year before he settled in.

Let's just call it what it is. Learning curve.

My point...
I think he should go back to Iowa to figure it out over struggling for however long it'll take with cubs..

Cause the difference with Rizzo then and with Schwarber now is this team suppose to contend for a championship ...

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[chibears55]

That's cherry picking. You're choosing to ignore good data and taking bad. You're also drawing conclusions on 300 PA sample size which is tiny. That's roughly the size of the sample size where Baez had over a 40% K rate when he first came up. You're going to continue to this. I've been here long enough to know this. But know that the data doesn't back you up. When he starts playing better that "hot start" is going to look average. You brush away his walk rate like it's nothing but the point you miss is that it's something that's already in place. He's playing poorly now yes but the MLB average this season for walk rate is 9.0% and he's 5% higher than that when playing poorly. When he starts hitting for average he's going to be in the .400 OBP range and probably over.

I get it. You don't see him hitting for average and are down on him because of that. However, I frankly don't think you understand data enough to know what are positive/negative signs. This goes back to comments you made about him being pull heavy. He's basically hitting the ball to all fields this season(40.0%/31.3%/28.8%). By comparison Rizzo is at 50.5%/28.8%/20.7% and Bryant is at 40.4%/33.7%/26.0%. He's near the league lead in pitches per plate appearance. If you look at Schwarbers soft/med/hard contact rates he's at 22.5%/47.5%/30.0%. Bryant and Rizzo are at 16.3%/54.8%/28.8% and 24.3%/47.7%/27.9%. Admittedly you would like to see the soft contact come down a little bit but despite him playing poorly he's got a higher hard contact rate than 2 MVP candidates last year. And the thing with the soft contact is he's probably just missed some pitches which also explains his .253 BABIP. That BABIP was .293 in 2015 and given the type of hitter it probably should be more in that .310+ range that Bryant and Rizzo typical are in.

Simply put, there's nothing in the data that suggests you should worry. It's likely he's just hitting into some bad BABIP. If you want something more scientific, he's likely just missing pitches and thus producing poorer results on balls in play but given he missed an entire season is that really surprising? It's entirely plausible his reaction time is a hair slow given that layoff and he's not seeing it as well as he can. He's at an 88 wRC+ right now. I'm willing to bet he's over 110 by the end of July.

I'm looking at all his numbers going down game after game..
Avg. Obp hrs etc..

Data can tell us what he capable of doing, I'm waiting to see him actually do it and do it consistently..

Like I've been saying..
I'm not giving up on the kid, just waiting to see him start hitting the way we all think he capable of..
I just think it would be better if he went down to find his stroke there rather then struggle up here and not really helping the team and maybe even lose confidence in himself if he continues to struggle.

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[beckdawg]

I just think it would be better if he went down to find his stroke there rather then struggle up here and not really helping the team and maybe even lose confidence in himself if he continues to struggle.

I'm not going to continue beating a dead horse but this is where I think you're missing the boat. Look again at those soft/med/hard contact rates I've pointed out. He's putting up a higher hard contact rate this season than Bryant who's among the top 15 players in fWAR(+1.2% hard contact). The difference between Bryant and Schwarber right now is two fold. Bryant's soft/med rates are 16.3%/54.8% vs 22.5%/47.5% for Schwarber. So, Bryant is +7.3% on medium contact. That's not massive but it illustrates the point that right now Schwarber is a bit of all or nothing in that his hard contact rate is great but he's putting up too many softly hit balls comparative to Bryant.

The second difference is in terms of BABIP. Schwarber is at .253 vs .351. That's nearly a 100 point difference. If you reduce his BABIP to .253 Bryant would basically also be hitting .200-.210. Some of Schwarbers BABIP is probably to do with his soft contact rates and some of it is noise or "bad luck."

That isn't the data of someone who needs to go down to AAA to work shit out. It's the data of someone who's timing is off or something like that(think Zobrist last year when he finally got his hands moving more and then got hot). Like I said I know you just want to see results but that's not the way this works. People work through this all the time at the major league level. I mean Rizzo is hitting .218/.342/.398 right now which may as well be the same as the .195/.322/.374 Schwarber is hitting. Are you suggesting they should send down Rizzo too? I'm not worried in the slightest about Rizzo just like I'm not worried about Schwarber. Both will figure it out and likely go on to have a ridiculous month where they kill the ball and by September this will all be forgotten. That's just how baseball goes.

 

[chibears55]

I'm not going to continue beating a dead horse but this is where I think you're missing the boat. Look again at those soft/med/hard contact rates I've pointed out. He's putting up a higher hard contact rate this season than Bryant who's among the top 15 players in fWAR(+1.2% hard contact). The difference between Bryant and Schwarber right now is two fold. Bryant's soft/med rates are 16.3%/54.8% vs 22.5%/47.5% for Schwarber. So, Bryant is +7.3% on medium contact. That's not massive but it illustrates the point that right now Schwarber is a bit of all or nothing in that his hard contact rate is great but he's putting up too many softly hit balls comparative to Bryant.

The second difference is in terms of BABIP. Schwarber is at .253 vs .351. That's nearly a 100 point difference. If you reduce his BABIP to .253 Bryant would basically also be hitting .200-.210. Some of Schwarbers BABIP is probably to do with his soft contact rates and some of it is noise or "bad luck."

That isn't the data of someone who needs to go down to AAA to work shit out. It's the data of someone who's timing is off or something like that(think Zobrist last year when he finally got his hands moving more and then got hot). Like I said I know you just want to see results but that's not the way this works. People work through this all the time at the major league level. I mean Rizzo is hitting .218/.342/.398 right now which may as well be the same as the .195/.322/.374 Schwarber is hitting. Are you suggesting they should send down Rizzo too? I'm not worried in the slightest about Rizzo just like I'm not worried about Schwarber. Both will figure it out and likely go on to have a ridiculous month where they kill the ball and by September this will all be forgotten. That's just how baseball goes.

Difference between Rizzo and Schwarber is Rizzo has proven he can hit so it's just a matter of when for him to get going again..

Schwarber like you said has 400 + AB but has yet to show that he can adjust back to having success like he did when he first came up before pitchers adjusted to him..

I know their not going to send him down. So we will just have to wait and see where he at after his next 50, 100 AB and see if he at least moving forward ...

I'm old school, I don't look at stats that tell you what players should be doing.. I look at what their actually doing..

So, we'll see.. as a fan , I hope he starts improving

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[beckdawg]

Difference between Rizzo and Schwarber is Rizzo has proven he can hit so it's just a matter of when for him to get going again..

And all I'm saying is you can only prove this if you're given the opportunity. I get that there's a case to be made that when do you cut bait on someone. But I just don't see now as the time to do that on Schwarber. Despite his struggle's he's still the 9th best OBP on the cubs right now at .322. He's better than Russell, Baez and Contreras. And in terms of wRC+ he's basically playing like Zobrist and Heyward(88 vs 88 and 89) and not far off Rizzo(96).

He's not going to put up a .250 BABIP all year. Last year only 5 players had a BABIP under .260(Bautista, Fraizer, Carlos Santana, Granderson and Joe Panik). That's out of every player with qualified ABs. Objectively bad hitters generally trend toward .300 BABIP. Darwin Barney as an example has a career BABIP of .277 and a 2017 BABIP of .385 over 71 PAs. He's not even really as bad as Heyward was last year and the cubs obviously lived with that. Heyward last year hit .230/.306/.325 with a wRC+ of 72 where as Schwarber is .195/.322/.374 with a wRC+ of 88 or in other words, wRC+ says he's 16% better.

That's why I don't think it's as big of a deal as people make it out to be. He's certainly not winning the cubs a ton of games right now but he's hardly the only one with this issue. Russell and Contreras have all been substantially worse and Zobrist, Baez, Heyward and Rizzo are all basically playing the same level. I'll take what he's giving the team over what Russell and Contreras have thus far.

 

[CSF77]

Hoyer had a pass because he felt Rizzo was rushed in SD and made up for it with the trade.

Schwarber lost a year of development. So this is his sophmore slump. As I said Rizzo also had a sophomore slump after is demotion and recall. And he turned out fine.

I'm not going to point out stats. Beck is doing that enough and you are not looking at it or what ever the reason. What I'm saying is he is Theo and Jed's baby. Just like Rizzo, Russell and Bryant. They are going to struggle through it. Yes you will see some days off. We are seeing Rizzo getting a day off with Candy at 1B and Rizzo has struggled out of the gate.

People are pointing at Kyle because he is a experiment. But no one points at Rizzo's slump. Or any other players struggles this season.

I believe that things will play out and they will deal for a starting pitcher. They are show casing Candy right now as a trade chip. I'm not sure if it will be a mega deal or a from left field deal. But don't go into the dead line thinking they will deal from the core unless the season is a fail and they need to retool.