IST: Cubs v Braves

[HankSauered]

He's not good.

Workman needs to go on the DL with a sprained wrist, even if Rossie has to sprain it for him.

 

[zack54attack]

Well, let's see what Adbert has today..

 

[hankchifan]

View attachment 11487

You are right. Being shut out 2 games in a row qualifies as brutal.

 

[CSF77]

Nice let's get the guy who isn't good enough to crack SD's rotation for Bryant who you claim would instantly be their best hitter (current numbers aside that just isn't true)

Bryant holds the best wRC+ on both teams. He has little control and is a rental. Resigning is not a factor in a trade in terms of value.

Chris Paddack goes into Arb1 next year, he has 3 years of control.
Darvish has 2 years
Snell has 2 years.
Musgrove year
Lamet 3 years

Gore is pending and will demand a rotation spot. Paddack starts to escalate and is the most likely to be traded.

As far as Paddack is concerned:
K%: 21% Worst of their starters. on Cubs #4 after Jake and ahead of Kyle.
BB% 6.7% #3 behind Musgrove and Darvish. Cubs #1
FIP 3.67 Worst starter on the Padres. #4 on the Cubs after Alzolay and before Davies (6.19)

So everything is relative here. We are talking about a MOR on the Cubs vs a #5 on the best staff in baseball.

But looking at it from the Cubs point of view.

2022 rotation

Hendricks
Arreta (1 year opt)
Williams (Arb3)
Alzolay (pre Arb)
Paddack (Arb1)

Marquez at AA this year and AAA next. Should be ready mid season which opens up Williams and Arreta for trade chips.

Like I said earlier I would be intrigued seeing Megill converted into a SP and it will take time to condition him for it. Putting both him and Marquez in Tenn for the year then both brought up to Iowa together and both replacing Jake and Trevor in 2022.

Paddack becomes stability. Jed would just pick up another garbage arm to fill that role. And it would be garbage. At least it would give a arm with upside.

 

[CSF77]

Keep this line up as is. Everyone got a hit. Megill proved to be a power 8th inning.

Ain't broke...

 

[HankSauered]

You are right. Being shut out 2 games in a row qualifies as brutal.

And 3 of last 4 is even more BRUTAL. But today was a new day and AA did a nice job. Even Duffy was a star in the 3 hole.

 

[beckdawg]

Been quietly saying this for awhile now but I think Alzolay breaks out in a big way this year. To start with he's sitting on 9.86 k/9 on the season over 21.0 IP. When you add in his previous stints in the majors that another 42 k's with his current 23 over in 54.2 IP which breaks down to an absurd 10.7 k/9. For reference here, if we go back to 2019 for the last full season the list of starters with better K/9 are Cole(13.82), Scherzer(12.69), Robbie Ray(12.13), Justin Verlander(12.11), Giolito(11.62), Matthew Boyd(11.56), Yu Darvish(11.54), deGrom(11.25), Charlie Morton(11.10), Bieber(10.89), and Strasburg(10.81). In other words, your basically looking at the top 5 cy young candidates for both leagues with that range of K/9.

What's really hurt him so far in his major league career has been his 4.99 BB/9. That ain't it chief. However, that historically hasn't been an issue for him. In the minors he only walked people at 2.7 bb/9 rate and typically that is something that translates to the majors.

In terms of HR prevention, he's been a little worse than league average at 1.29 but again in the minors he was pretty great with that at 0.8 HR/9. Granted that is an area you would expect to see a rise from level of competition but on the other hand, that's also something young pitchers are going to struggle with early on and learn how to pitch around MLB batters.

The biggest concern for him honestly is probably durability. Can he go ~200 innings? If he can, Alzolay statistically looks like a monster prospect. I'm not even trying to gas him up that much I just think he's being slept on quite a bit by people. Him adding those pitches last year also makes him way more interesting with a 5 pitch mix.

 

[CSF77]

Been quietly saying this for awhile now but I think Alzolay breaks out in a big way this year. To start with he's sitting on 9.86 k/9 on the season over 21.0 IP. When you add in his previous stints in the majors that another 42 k's with his current 23 over in 54.2 IP which breaks down to an absurd 10.7 k/9. For reference here, if we go back to 2019 for the last full season the list of starters with better K/9 are Cole(13.82), Scherzer(12.69), Robbie Ray(12.13), Justin Verlander(12.11), Giolito(11.62), Matthew Boyd(11.56), Yu Darvish(11.54), deGrom(11.25), Charlie Morton(11.10), Bieber(10.89), and Strasburg(10.81). In other words, your basically looking at the top 5 cy young candidates for both leagues with that range of K/9.

What's really hurt him so far in his major league career has been his 4.99 BB/9. That ain't it chief. However, that historically hasn't been an issue for him. In the minors he only walked people at 2.7 bb/9 rate and typically that is something that translates to the majors.

In terms of HR prevention, he's been a little worse than league average at 1.29 but again in the minors he was pretty great with that at 0.8 HR/9. Granted that is an area you would expect to see a rise from level of competition but on the other hand, that's also something young pitchers are going to struggle with early on and learn how to pitch around MLB batters.

The biggest concern for him honestly is probably durability. Can he go ~200 innings? If he can, Alzolay statistically looks like a monster prospect. I'm not even trying to gas him up that much I just think he's being slept on quite a bit by people. Him adding those pitches last year also makes him way more interesting with a 5 pitch mix.

Thank you. I've said that he was a MOR with upside. What I see is a wiffle ball making vets look stupid.

It is not how many strike outs. It is good hitters saying WTF was that?

 

[knoxville7]

He finally went 5 innings, I’ll give him that. Like I’ve said, if he continues to struggle to make it 5 innings...his future will be as a setup guy or closer