IST: Cubs vs Brew Crew

[zack54attack]

Chafin is the new Strop. When he takes a dump it stinks.

Yeah, the mustache and personality are fine. But he's gotta pitch better..

 

[zack54attack]

Jake only gave up one there. Whew.

 

[zack54attack]

Gets out of a 2nd and 3rd no out jam again. Now get him some damn runs.

 

[knoxville7]

Now THIS is the cubs offense we know and lo- errr, I mean hate

 

[zack54attack]

This Adam dude STINKS

 

[PickSix]

Outscore the opponent 18-12 but lose the series. This is exactly what is wrong with this team and why advanced analytics lie.
Steady and consistent run production is way more important that this hit out of the park or nothing bull shit.

 

[CSF77]

Outscore the opponent 18-12 but lose the series. This is exactly what is wrong with this team and why advanced analytics lie.
Steady and consistent run production is way more important that this hit out of the park or nothing bull shit.

You need to factor in the quality of the SP that they are facing.

Woodruff: 1.55 ERA 0-6
Peralta 2.45 ERA 3-4
Anderson 4.15 ERA 15-3
Luccesi 6.75 ERA 4-3
Peterson 6.75 ERA 16-4
Walker 3.21 ERA 3-1
Wilson 3.60 ERA 4-13
Ynoa 3.94 ERA 13-4
Wright 4.15 ERA 2-5

Ynoa's game was the beginning of the outburst but middle relief got blown up that caused that implosion. For the most part the Cubs spanked shitty starters and quality starters kept the O in check.

What I am taking from this is the staff has given up 43 runs in this span. The O has generated 60 runs. The record is 5-4.

The last 2 games they have run into + starters. I would say that those 2 are and will be the staff aces on the Brewers. The both kept a surging O quiet.

So I would really look at the SP match up vs making stale remarks about how the Cubs O sucks and this nonsense.

Good pitching controls good hitting. Bad pitching takes it in the butt by good hitting.

We saw that on both sides these last 9 games. Jake did great today and he is really taking to his tailing 2 seemer. Adams choked and Maples was the worst person to bring in with no open bases. So those 5 runs were just fluff. The core problem is Woodruff has a 1.55 ERA. He is a staff ace right now and he shut them down. That is what ace quality pitching does. Jake stood up to him and as of right now he is the Cubs ace again. Really impressive for a guy that came apart in Philly.

 

[CSF77]

Now I do wish that Alzolay was not on a innings limit right now but I get it as he is the future.

But looking at the starters:

Alozay 9 hits in 15 IP. 0.93 WHIP
Arrieta 22 hits in 28 IP 1.18 WHIP

We are looking at the 2 best pitchers on the staff these last two games and yes they faced off on the Brewers 2 best pitchers. Lost both but they were 2 great games minus the 9th inning and a cheeseburger tossed on Sat.

The others?
Williams 21 Hits in 19.1 IP 1.50 WHIP
Hendricks 21 Hits 19 IP 1.53 WHIP
Davies 21 hits 15.1 IP 2.09 WHIP

Shoot this is making the Darvish trade look even more crappy. At this point I would rather put Mills in the rotation as his numbers don't suck.

PS: What made Hendricks great was he was a odd ball on a staff that pitched 92-98 MPH for years. Right now he is pitching on a staff that sits 89-92 except Alozay that can push 95 all day.

Hitters are used to 95. Kyle by nature messed with these hitter's timing. Then he is able to drop it down even more with a change up. But when you toss him into a rotation of the same there is no offset and the hitters are already adjusted to slowing down their timing mechanic.

That is why Kyle is not at the same level that he was before. The last game he started to come back but the underlying issue is not making him unique and making him common.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Now I do wish that Alzolay was not on a innings limit right now but I get it as he is the future.

But looking at the starters:

Alozay 9 hits in 15 IP. 0.93 WHIP
Arrieta 22 hits in 28 IP 1.18 WHIP

We are looking at the 2 best pitchers on the staff these last two games and yes they faced off on the Brewers 2 best pitchers. Lost both but they were 2 great games minus the 9th inning and a cheeseburger tossed on Sat.

The others?
Williams 21 Hits in 19.1 IP 1.50 WHIP
Hendricks 21 Hits 19 IP 1.53 WHIP
Davies 21 hits 15.1 IP 2.09 WHIP

Shoot this is making the Darvish trade look even more crappy. At this point I would rather put Mills in the rotation as his numbers don't suck.

PS: What made Hendricks great was he was a odd ball on a staff that pitched 92-98 MPH for years. Right now he is pitching on a staff that sits 89-92 except Alozay that can push 95 all day.

Hitters are used to 95. Kyle by nature messed with these hitter's timing. Then he is able to drop it down even more with a change up. But when you toss him into a rotation of the same there is no offset and the hitters are already adjusted to slowing down their timing mechanic.

That is why Kyle is not at the same level that he was before. The last game he started to come back but the underlying issue is not making him unique and making him common.

To be fair if we are going to give the lineup a pass for sucking against good pitching then we also have to take into account the hitting that we have faced has been mostly shit so the good starts for the pitching can be taken with a grain of salt. Milwaukee without yelich and Cain is awful. Pitt is awful and the Mets lineup is pretty brutal so far. Atl is the only decent offense we've faced

 

[Szlachcic]

Why Horner was send to the alternate side and Bote started in his place? Horner did have great camp and Cubs need bats...

 

[CSF77]

Why Horner was send to the alternate side and Bote started in his place? Horner did have great camp and Cubs need bats...

Bote = Hoerner out of ST.

Bote is on a MLB contract. Hoerner has MLB options.

I would give Hoerner 100 AB'S before making a decision with him. That time will make the decision on the team.

9 AB is a poor estimate on his production level. 100 is not much better. But it is not 9.

 

[CSF77]

To be fair if we are going to give the lineup a pass for sucking against good pitching then we also have to take into account the hitting that we have faced has been mostly shit so the good starts for the pitching can be taken with a grain of salt. Milwaukee without yelich and Cain is awful. Pitt is awful and the Mets lineup is pretty brutal so far. Atl is the only decent offense we've faced

That is why I posted season data vs data vs those 2 teams.

Kyle and Trevor also looked better against them but over all they are hovering 1.50 WHIP.

Kyle has a history and when it locks in his WHIP and ERA will drop. Trevor lacks this history. 1.35 WHIP might be his peak.

I normally wouldn't give a shit about Jake but that tailing fastball has the same movement that Maddux had. Greg was a master of locating it. Jake lacks that command but has a far better breaking pitch than Greg ever had.

So Jake is exceeding my expectations right now and has my attention.

Alozay has nasty breaking pitches. He was making the Brewers look like little league hitters. He is only going to get better.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

That is why I posted season data vs data vs those 2 teams.

Kyle and Trevor also looked better against them but over all they are hovering 1.50 WHIP.

Kyle has a history and when it locks in his WHIP and ERA will drop. Trevor lacks this history. 1.35 WHIP might be his peak.

I normally wouldn't give a shit about Jake but that tailing fastball has the same movement that Maddux had. Greg was a master of locating it. Jake lacks that command but has a far better breaking pitch than Greg ever had.

So Jake is exceeding my expectations right now and has my attention.

But the season data only contains arrieta and alzolay pitching against shit offenses, so it is meaningless. If the point is that the other guys have been bad against the same offenses, that still means pretty much nothing at this point.

Honestly the pitching is a question mark at this point. The offense we know sucks because it has sucked consistently for like 3 or 4 years with a lot of the same players.

 

[knoxville7]

Alozay might have nice stuff, but the guy can’t make it past 5 innings. He might be best as a late inning reliever if he gets the control aspect down

 

[CSF77]

But the season data only contains arrieta and alzolay pitching against shit offenses, so it is meaningless. If the point is that the other guys have been bad against the same offenses, that still means pretty much nothing at this point.

Honestly the pitching is a question mark at this point. The offense we know sucks because it has sucked consistently for like 3 or 4 years with a lot of the same players.

The o is feast or famine. But again it tied into shit starter vs quality starter. But yes having more contact hitting pays off against strong starters because those guys don't give away walks and contact gives you a opertunity to create runs vs wait for a solo HR.

FIP still has Jake at 3.45 and Albert at 3.56. so the underlying number on both are very good looking ahead. You can argue weak O. That is a honest argument but I look at it as caution vs salting the wound.

I'm far more concerned with Kyle. 7.57 FIP and a 5.68 ERA. Davies and Williams are not long term so their results are minimal right now. Jake has a option so he can impact 2022. Albert same. Kyle is the issue. He is escalating now and his value is going the wrong direction. So his next few starts cross your fingers that his last start was the beginning of his season and the games before was shaking rust off.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

The o is feast or famine. But again it tied into shit starter vs quality starter. But yes having more contact hitting pays off against strong starters because those guys don't give away walks and contact gives you a opertunity to create runs vs wait for a solo HR.

FIP still has Jake at 3.45 and Albert at 3.56. so the underlying number on both are very good looking ahead. You can argue weak O. That is a honest argument but I look at it as caution vs salting the wound.

I'm far more concerned with Kyle. 7.57 FIP and a 5.68 ERA. Davies and Williams are not long term so their results are minimal right now. Jake has a option so he can impact 2022. Albert same. Kyle is the issue. He is escalating now and his value is going the wrong direction. So his next few starts cross your fingers that his last start was the beginning of his season and the games before was shaking rust off.

All of this is pretty reactionary. Kyle has generally started seasons a little slow. Davies has never been as bad as his first few starts this season. Arrieta has been pretty awful for a few years now. ADBERT has proven very little. And you are ready to give up on Williams after like 4 starts even though you were claiming how great he was after 1 start. Let's let things settle before we start making any decisions on the pitching.

 

[CSF77]

All of this is pretty reactionary. Kyle has generally started seasons a little slow. Davies has never been as bad as his first few starts this season. Arrieta has been pretty awful for a few years now. ADBERT has proven very little. And you are ready to give up on Williams after like 4 starts even though you were claiming how great he was after 1 start. Let's let things settle before we start making any decisions on the pitching.

I said that we can not expect anything more than a 1.35 (his career avg is 1.34) so I'm not sure of your point. Now Jed holds a 3rd arb year on him so who knows.

Davies I've had issues with sense ST. He was at a 1:1 SO:BB ratio there. It carried over. A lollypop pitcher like him will get wrecked by doing that. He got lucky in AZL. That did not carry over and Jed might as well fake a injury with him and let Mills start again.


Regardless I was looking towards 2022 with payroll opened up. What do they need? A ace. What do they have? Marquez most likely on a innings limit. Alzolay a MOR. Hendricks a decent #2. Jake another MOR.

Sure they could let Williams start on his last year. He is a 4.00 ERA #5 quality starter.

But I would rather have a TOR.

Well if Jed didn't do the Darvish deal and Jake and Alzolay pitching. Kyle most likely heating up.

Well this would be a different conversation that we would be having about the direction of the team.

So adding Marquez and a legit Ace. Well next year could be good if Jed makes moves with winning in mind vs budget.