IST:Cubs vs Brewers

[Parade_Rain]

I wonder if all these people who think Nico Hoerner as the "future X" remember when they thought Ian Happ was the future 2B/leadoff hitter?

I wonder if all these people remember Russell was a 1st rd draft pick and people expected more. Same with Schwarber, etc. Just a few short years ago, fans were getting jabbed about all the prospects coming up wouldn’t turn out. Hoerner stands out from the crowd currently, because the system is a lot more thin than it was 4 years ago.

 

[fatbeard]

I wonder if all these people remember Russell was a 1st rd draft pick and people expected more. Same with Schwarber, etc. Just a few short years ago, fans were getting jabbed about all the prospects coming up wouldn’t turn out. Hoerner stands out from the crowd currently, because the system is a lot more thin than it was 4 years ago.

It seems to me that this is precisely the point people are making that it's foolish to punt on Russell because of two sub-par offensive seasons, especially when one of those seasons was concurrent with the entire team save Baez taking a step back offensively. Bryant and Contreras have rebounded strongly from their 2018 performances, so there's reason to believe Russell might as well.

 

[CSF77]

It seems to me that this is precisely the point people are making that it's foolish to punt on Russell because of two sub-par offensive seasons, especially when one of those seasons was concurrent with the entire team save Baez taking a step back offensively. Bryant and Contreras have rebounded strongly from their 2018 performances, so there's reason to believe Russell might as well.

Russell best season was a 95 wRC+. The vast majority of his value is in his glove.

He has never put up a season better. So there is no basis to believe that he has more potential as a hitter.

Just like Almora turning into a rounded hitter that takes more walks. Or Baez. These hitters are what they are.

Nico is different there. He has a hit tool like Almora but also will take a walk. No one expects him to hit HR's or play a SS like Russell.

I think the most that you can expect out of Russell is 95-80 wRC+ and that is why they have made the change.

 

[fatbeard]

Russell best season was a 95 wRC+. The vast majority of his value is in his glove.

He has never put up a season better. So there is no basis to believe that he has more potential as a hitter.

Just like Almora turning into a rounded hitter that takes more walks. Or Baez. These hitters are what they are.

Nico is different there. He has a hit tool like Almora but also will take a walk. No one expects him to hit HR's or play a SS like Russell.

I think the most that you can expect out of Russell is 95-80 wRC+ and that is why they have made the change.

You say that there is no reason to believe Russell has more potential as a hitter because he's never had a season above 95 wRC+, and then you immediately undermine yourself by bringing up Baez as an example, who never had a season above 98 wRC+...until he did. Developing players are not simply evaluated on their past performance, they are assessed on their tools and potential as well. Russell was once talked about as a potential MVP-caliber player, but the Cubs undoubtedly affected his development by admittedly bringing him up to the majors before his bat was ready. Dismissing him as a finished product at this point is as foolish as it was when people did it to Javy Baez.

 

[CSF77]

Baez came up with power and a ability to hit for contact. He never took walks.

All what he went through was adjustments to higher talent. He didn't reinvent himself. He just adapted.

Do t expect him to be a y more than he was in the minors

Add to it he has had shoulder injuries. The arm is not the same.

I expect a .260 BA and 8% walks. Maybe 12 HR power. That is it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

It seems to me that this is precisely the point people are making that it's foolish to punt on Russell because of two sub-par offensive seasons, especially when one of those seasons was concurrent with the entire team save Baez taking a step back offensively. Bryant and Contreras have rebounded strongly from their 2018 performances, so there's reason to believe Russell might as well.

I already told you what I thought of Russell.

 

[beckdawg]

So there is no basis to believe that he has more potential as a hitter

This is just factually inaccurate. If people want to shit on Russell for being a crappy person then whatever. But saying he has no potential left in him is just stupid. He hit .274/.324/.516(112 wRC+) in the second half of 2017 over 102 PAs. In the first half of 2018 he hit .272/.345/.391(101 wRC+) over 331 PAs. Sure he was garbage in the 2nd half of 2018 but A) he was really banged up B) so was most of the team and C) ya know his marriage was falling apart.

Russell also hit .297/.376/.518 in the minors with 9.8% bb rate and 21.2% k rate. The contact rates are ~1% less on his walk rate and 3% more on his K rate vs his career rates. Those tend to be pretty similar in the majors. I'd argue something similar to his .270/.340 line to start 2018 is a conservative guess at where he'll be in his prime. The main issue with 2018 was he had no power. He had a .221 ISO in the minors. It was .090 overall last year and .119 in the 1st half. However, we know he has power. Aside from the numbers in the minors, he put up 2 straight .179 ISO season in 2016/17. If you assume he gets back to that .180 ISO and also is a .270/.340 guy you're looking at .270/.340/.420. Trea Turner is a similarly good defender at SS(I'd argue Russell is better but w/e) who hit .271/.344/.416 last year. He was a 4.8 win player. Additionally, it's not even like that .270/.340/.420 line is even that outlandish. He hit .238/.321/.417 with a .277 BABIP in 2016. You add in 23 points to push his BABIP up to .300 and you're looking at .261/.344/.440.

I want to be clear. I'm not saying any of that guarantee's that Russell can/will put it all together this season. The point I'm trying to make here is you don't even have to look that hard to find Russell being a good hitter. It's more of a case he's never done it consistently for an entire season. Thing is, neither did Baez before 2018 and there's numerous other examples of players in the past who break out.

 

[SilenceS]

This thread. lulz

 

[CSF77]

This is just factually inaccurate. If people want to shit on Russell for being a crappy person then whatever. But saying he has no potential left in him is just stupid. He hit .274/.324/.516(112 wRC+) in the second half of 2017 over 102 PAs. In the first half of 2018 he hit .272/.345/.391(101 wRC+) over 331 PAs. Sure he was garbage in the 2nd half of 2018 but A) he was really banged up B) so was most of the team and C) ya know his marriage was falling apart.

Russell also hit .297/.376/.518 in the minors with 9.8% bb rate and 21.2% k rate. The contact rates are ~1% less on his walk rate and 3% more on his K rate vs his career rates. Those tend to be pretty similar in the majors. I'd argue something similar to his .270/.340 line to start 2018 is a conservative guess at where he'll be in his prime. The main issue with 2018 was he had no power. He had a .221 ISO in the minors. It was .090 overall last year and .119 in the 1st half. However, we know he has power. Aside from the numbers in the minors, he put up 2 straight .179 ISO season in 2016/17. If you assume he gets back to that .180 ISO and also is a .270/.340 guy you're looking at .270/.340/.420. Trea Turner is a similarly good defender at SS(I'd argue Russell is better but w/e) who hit .271/.344/.416 last year. He was a 4.8 win player. Additionally, it's not even like that .270/.340/.420 line is even that outlandish. He hit .238/.321/.417 with a .277 BABIP in 2016. You add in 23 points to push his BABIP up to .300 and you're looking at .261/.344/.440.

I want to be clear. I'm not saying any of that guarantee's that Russell can/will put it all together this season. The point I'm trying to make here is you don't even have to look that hard to find Russell being a good hitter. It's more of a case he's never done it consistently for an entire season. Thing is, neither did Baez before 2018 and there's numerous other examples of players in the past who break out.

You can say any player can put up a 112 wRC+ over x amount of games. That reasoning is bull shit and you know it. Just like Heyward was 150 wRC+ in April this year. Now he is in a slump.

That is cherry picking 101.

 

[CSF77]

This thread. lulz

Well at least we are not corrupting the current series.

But to be strait with Russell and my opinion of him.

I do not give a shit about his personal life. So that has no business in this evaluation.

I believe that he has the best glove at SS in the complete organization. I don't doubt many will counter this.

I do not over value D. I believe that it has value in retaining a lead late inning. But if the bat loses you runs earlier game then there will be no lead to protect.

So I am not a fan of dead weight in the line up. I really don't get too wrapped up in to of player A has a shit walk rate or not. What I care about is winning games and that is it.

Javy is the best hitter on the Cubs. Bryant and Contreras are fighting for #2. That is how I rate these guys. Heyward was in that conversation in April not right now. They give him a day off to reset it makes sense. Players tend to be streaky and he is currently cold. Nothing wrong with adding AB's to subs while he works in the cage.

Now as far as Russell goes there really is no reason why he shouldnt be the starting 2b ATM. Bryant is at 1B and Bote is at 3B. It alligns up for Russell to grab up some PA and to prove that he deserves more of the rotation when Rizzo returns.

Regardless I'm not on the polar end of it that disregards the job Baez has done this year. Most teams would start him at SS every day with out question. Including the Cubs. Except for the minority that believes that Russell deserves it unerring.

 

[beckdawg]

You can say any player can put up a 112 wRC+ over x amount of games. That reasoning is bull shit and you know it. Just like Heyward was 150 wRC+ in April this year. Now he is in a slump.

That is cherry picking 101.

Half a season isn't "cherry picking" and even if it were that's not the fucking point. You said there's literally no reason to think he can be better. I gave you several and even acknowledged the issue was consistency. The point you're missing is showing you can do something is a precursor to them doing it consistently. As I said before, it's not a guarantee that they will do it, but you're the one saying he can't get better and that's just not true.

The fact of the matter is your argument is the same you could make on dozens if not hundreds of players who broke out. Baez was mentioned. Andrelton Simmons was a .261/.308/.363(85 wRC+) through age 26. The past 2 years he's hit .285/.334/.419(106 wRC+). Jose Bautista was terrible until age 29. I mean I could literally cite dozens of people here off the top of my head. This is an incredibly common phenomena where guys struggle until they turn 26-27 and then finally catch up to the league and become productive players. Saying half a season of decent hitting is "cherry picking" is ignorant because it proves when he's playing well he can hit. The difference there being most truly bad hitters never hit. Maybe he ends up more of a middling league average type player. They often are inconsistent. But to sit here today and proclaim he's never getting better is absurd. It spits in the face of tons of evidence to the contrary.

 

[CSF77]

Half a season isn't "cherry picking" and even if it were that's not the fucking point. You said there's literally no reason to think he can be better. I gave you several and even acknowledged the issue was consistency. The point you're missing is showing you can do something is a precursor to them doing it consistently. As I said before, it's not a guarantee that they will do it, but you're the one saying he can't get better and that's just not true.

The fact of the matter is your argument is the same you could make on dozens if not hundreds of players who broke out. Baez was mentioned. Andrelton Simmons was a .261/.308/.363(85 wRC+) through age 26. The past 2 years he's hit .285/.334/.419(106 wRC+). Jose Bautista was terrible until age 29. I mean I could literally cite dozens of people here off the top of my head. This is an incredibly common phenomena where guys struggle until they turn 26-27 and then finally catch up to the league and become productive players. Saying half a season of decent hitting is "cherry picking" is ignorant because it proves when he's playing well he can hit. The difference there being most truly bad hitters never hit. Maybe he ends up more of a middling league average type player. They often are inconsistent. But to sit here today and proclaim he's never getting better is absurd. It spits in the face of tons of evidence to the contrary.

Give me a break.

When he puts up a complete season that is over 100 then we will talk about it. Right now you are pulling smoke and mirrors over his hitting.

2016 was a complete season. He posted a 95.

2017 was the shoulder issues.

2018 was the personal issues.

Those 2 seasons he was not starter quality. Peroid.

Right now he has a fresh take. Healthy and bulls shit out in the open . I still view him as a 90 wRC+. basically just below avg hitting talent.

Again I comp it to Heyward. Had a great month but he is going back to his mean of 100.

Almora started cold and is getting back up to his 80-90 range.

These guys are what they are talent wise.

Even Schwarber is picking up after a cold start. I expect 115-130 range after it is done.

To expect a player to Excell past their norm is folly. He has been in the majors sense 2015. There is no learning curve left.

 

[beckdawg]

When he puts up a complete season that is over 100 then we will talk about it.

So we'll talk about a player being good once he's been good. That's really going out on a ledge there... It's also not what you said. You said he can't be good because he hasn't been. And I literally gave you numerous examples where that just isn't true. But whatever man, clearly you don't have an open mind so I'm not really sure what the point in continuing discussing this is.

That being said it doesn't make you right. Fact of the matter is players every year get better out of no where. Russell has more positive indicators than a guy like La Stella did for hitting 12 HRs or whatever he has now or the any number of Max Muncy's or whomever your flavor of break out star is. As I've said numerous times, none of that means Russell will break out but he has just as much potential to do so as anyone else if not more.

 

[fatbeard]

To expect a player to Excell past their norm is folly. He has been in the majors sense 2015. There is no learning curve left.

Now do Javy Baez.

Now do Tommy LaStella.

Now do Jake Arrieta.

Now do Ben Zobrist.

Now do Christian Yelich.

 

[CSF77]

Now do Javy Baez.

Now do Tommy LaStella.

Now do Jake Arrieta.

Now do Ben Zobrist.

Now do Christian Yelich.

Baez was in a learning curve still. He needed to reduce his swing.

Arretta was limited with the O's. They banned the cutter. He went to the Cubs and it became his best pitch.

LaStella was a PH with the Cubs. He was never a starter or given any opertunity to play every day.

Zobrist has been great for a long time. When healthy he is a 135 wRC+. When he is not healthy he has suffered. This year is a divorce. Outlier.

Yelch has always had a great hit tool. He was stuck in a OF vacuum in FLA. His power increased at the same time he went to a HR Haven.

That is very situational. I believe that the home away splits 100% support this. As far as being a .300 hitter he was that before.


Again there is nothing wrong with Russell in the rotation. If his bat is better than Bote and Descanasio then it would be stupid to not play him.

 

[CSF77]

I refuse to say that he is anything more than a avg major league hitter before he proves to be one. Not over a 1/2 season non sense.

That is like taking Almora's hot streak last year and cutting out the rest of it. Stats are based off of 162 game season. Every thing else is fluff.