IST: Cubs vs Marlins

[beckdawg]

Thing is and they still may eventually end up this way , the cubs on paper are supposed to be way above the Pirates Cardinals and Brewers...
So, the division as a whole may be better but the Cubs are supposed to be high on top of it with a rotation that supposed to be one of the best ones in all of baseball and an offense that some on here feel is Potent...

This team right now is playing below it expectations and that the frustrating part ..


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Not really. They are on pace to win 91 games right now. I think their projections were for 94. So, I suppose in the most technical sense you could argue they are underperforming but they have played all of 8 games vs teams under .500. Just as an example here, the Cards have played 6 games vs the 18-17 mets, 6 games vs 21-16 MIL, 3 games vs 24-12 arizona, 7 games vs 10-27 cincy, 5 games vs the cubs(19-15), 3 vs pit(21-16), 2 vs white sox(9-25), and 2 vs MIN(15-17). That's 11 games vs teams well under .500(cincy/min/chi sox) and 6 games vs essentially a .500 mets team. That's 17 games of their 34 played games. I'm not really sure how good Arizona is because frankly the NL west has sorta been garbage but that's 3 games out of division vs good teams and the other 14 games vs good teams were all in division(5 vs cubs, 3 vs pit, 6 vs mil).

The breakdown of the rest of the cubs schedule looks like this

7 vs 24-12(.667) ARI
4 vs 21-14(.600) ATL
14 vs 20-14(.588) STL
6 vs 21-15(.583) PHI
16 vs 21-16(.568) PIT
11 vs 21-16(.568) MIL
7 vs 20-18(.526) WAS
7 vs 18-17(.514) NYM
6 vs 19-18(.514) SF
2 vs 18-18(.500) CLE
3 vs 15-17(.469) MIN
7 vs 16-20(.444) LAD
4 vs 15-21(.417) DET
7 vs 14-24(.368) SD
3 vs 12-24(.333) KC
6 vs 9-25(.265) Sox
18 vs 10-27(.270) CIN


If you separate that into three tiers(green = 55+ win%, orange = 44%-54%), you have 38 games vs shit teams, 32 vs middle tier, and 58 vs good teams though obviously most of that is in division. They are 5-3(.625) vs the shit tier teams, 1-1 in the mid tier teams(CLE), and 13-9(.591) vs the "good" teams. If you just took the .591 win% vs good teams over 162 games that's on pace for 96 wins. Obviously you'd like to see them do better vs crap teams but 2 of the losses vs shit tier teams were 1 run games including that 17 inning game vs MIA. The other 2 losses were a 6-0 bad showing vs MIA and a 4-1 loss vs Bauer in cleveland who just had great stuff that night.

It's also worth noting that 5 of the 10 games they've played vs shit/middle tier teams came to start the season. In other words, 5 of their last 29 games have been vs bad/middling teams. And in those games they've gone 17-12(.586). If they continue to win 59% of their games vs the 58 remaining games vs good teams that would give them 53 wins. To get to 95 they'd need to go 42-28(60%) vs the softer underbelly of their schedule.

 

[CSF77]

It was not down on the team, it was down on the fact the wind started to blow out and the mentality of using the entire field went away. Yes, I know Rizzo hit a lead off home run to left field, but he was late, definitely not trying to hit it there. The only player absolutely hitting the ball where it is pitched is Caratini. Everyone else is in pull mode again. And again, I am not against this with 0 or 1 strike. If Javy wants to swing and miss and screw himself into the ground, that's fine, as long as the two strike approach changes. It was not like Chili Davis preaching if they use the entire field they will win games. It was the players themselves using the entire field, winning, then going back to hitting into shifts.

Wrong

They lost against quality pitching. They won when the pitching lessened

Miami is a bad team. Stl has good pitching.

Now Rizzo heating up changes the dynamic because he is a .400 OBA bat that has been AWOL this year.

 

[CSF77]

Most hitters get hits off of mistakes on pitch location. So when a staff is hitting location then the hitters hit where the pitcher intended.

So if a team ends up pulling off pitches that result in outs the pitcher normally is setting up the hitter with pitches that result in weak contact.

Now a hitter like Bryant excels on hitting inside pitches thus him being uneffected. Baez is upped his game to the next level where it doesn’t matter. Almora has always been a quality hitter first.

So those guys were not effected much.

But the hitters who are struggling were pressing and fell into the pitching’s laps.

Coming up against a applesauce staff was the cure

 

[beckdawg]

Also interesting re: schedule and what not

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?displayOption=distribution

That's a new feature fangraphs added. Cubs projection is best in the NL. Boston, NY and houston are the only teams better but again they get to beat up on some pretty meh AL teams this year. In terms of remaining schedule, only Cleveland has it easier(barely) than the cubs. Their SOS is .483. Cubs and nationals are both at .484. Cards are at .487. Those are the only other teams under .490 the rest of the way.

 

[anotheridiot]

Wrong

They lost against quality pitching. They won when the pitching lessened

Miami is a bad team. Stl has good pitching.

Now Rizzo heating up changes the dynamic because he is a .400 OBA bat that has been AWOL this year.

I was not talking about just the st louis series, dropping the last two vs Colorado when the wind was blowing out changed all the hitters.

Maybe some stat guy can pull up outs hit into shift during the 5 game losing streak, I would guess 25/27 per game. Everyone is blowing their load over numbers, all a baseball player needs to do is hit the ball where the fielders are not.

 

[CSF77]

I was not talking about just the st louis series, dropping the last two vs Colorado when the wind was blowing out changed all the hitters.

Maybe some stat guy can pull up outs hit into shift during the 5 game losing streak, I would guess 25/27 per game. Everyone is blowing their load over numbers, all a baseball player needs to do is hit the ball where the fielders are not.

It is easy to assume that. Grey was working a fastball with a late tailing action on his game. Kept the hitters from barreling up. It just kept going from there.

What you are saying is a factor but the pitching is a factor also.

Hitters struggle and then they press. But it is the quality of the pitching that puts them there.

 

[TL1961]

Wrong

They lost against quality pitching. They won when the pitching lessened

Miami is a bad team. Stl has good pitching.

Now Rizzo heating up changes the dynamic because he is a .400 OBA bat that has been AWOL this year.

They lost to St. louis because they allowed 5 runs Saturday and one Sunday on defensive miscues. Had it not been for that, St. Louis has one run each day.