IST: Cubs vs Mets

[CSF77]

Just the fact that anyone would think a career journeyman of Sogard's ilk is what this lineup needs....becomes yet another reason that trying to hang for a whole Cub game is such a chore.

I was thinking along the same lines as Beck. He makes contact. Bote is another player like the rest.

I would lead off with Eric and drop Happ down.

Sogard
Contreras
Rizzo
Bryant
Pederson
Happ
Heyward
Baez


I wouldn't mind Sogard at SS for a few games to let Baez figure it out. ESPN was spot on. He is late on his foot tap and he needs to start up and adjust down in the zone.

MLB is going up and he is stuck in a low pitch swing path.

 

[Bust]

Jake is now 3-1 with a 2.68 era great signing thus far

 

[Probie2429]

Arrieta and Kimbrel looking good for trade deadline candidates.

 

[CSF77]

Arrieta and Kimbrel looking good for trade deadline candidates.

That is the thing. If the team has a bunch of great trade candidates at the same time it normally means that they are winning games. Which means that they are in the chase. And it means that they are looking to add vs subtract.

 

[knoxville7]

Just the fact that anyone would think a career journeyman of Sogard's ilk is what this lineup needs....becomes yet another reason that trying to hang for a whole Cub game is such a chore.

he’s the reason they won yesterday

and in regards to lead off, he’s a contact guy with a career 13.5% K rate. Good things happen when you put the ball in play instead of striking out a third of the time like Happ. You make it easy on the opposing defense when you do that.

 

[knoxville7]

Jake is now 3-1 with a 2.68 era great signing thus far

his expected ERA is around 5, so he’s had some good luck/good defense behind him. His hard hit ball rate is pretty high too...I wouldn’t expect his era to stay that low much longer

 

[Discus fish salesman]

That is the thing. If the team has a bunch of great trade candidates at the same time it normally means that they are winning games. Which means that they are in the chase. And it means that they are looking to add vs subtract.

Luckily none of that applies to the cubs as of right now

 

[Bust]

The positive spin is even with the pitching being inconsistent and the bats silent they are still only 2.5 back. Reds after starting off hot has come back down to earth.

Teams like the Cardinals who got lot of hype are only 3-7 in the last 10.

DIVISION LOOKS TO BE WIDE OPEN!

 

[CSF77]

Luckily none of that applies to the cubs as of right now

I don't know. 7-9; right now. If Davies figures it out this could end up a sweep. Cubs are hitting in general right now.

When I posted that line up I separated Joc and Baez. They are inning killers right now.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I don't know. 7-9; right now. If Davies figures it out this could end up a sweep. Cubs are hitting in general right now.

When I posted that line up I separated Joc and Baez. They are inning killers right now.

Cubs have mostly guys with suppressed value because of poor performance.

 

[Bust]

his expected ERA is around 5, so he’s had some good luck/good defense behind him. His hard hit ball rate is pretty high too...I wouldn’t expect his era to stay that low much longer

Momentum and confidence are huge in sports. Jake has to like his start on a personal level thus far.

 

[CSF77]

Momentum and confidence are huge in sports. Jake has to like his start on a personal level thus far.

Good for him.

But
FIP to ERA

Rex Brothers 0.89/2.45
Greg Kimbrel 1.69/0.00
Brad Wieck 2.07/0.00
Andrew Chafin 2.35/3.86
Pedro Strop 3.07/0.00
Trevor Williams 3.14/5.02
Justin Steele 3.37/0.00
Dan Winkler 3.63/1.69
Jake Arrieta 3.84/2.86
Albert Alzolay 4.52/6.10
Brandon Workman 4.67/3.60
Jason Adam 4.83/1.59
Dillon Maples 4.93/2.57
Zach Davies 5.19/10.32
Alec Mills 6.16/5.06
Ryan Tepera 7.87/6.75
Kyle Hendricks 8.07/6.92
Shelby Miller 16.07/63.00

So in reality Jake is not that bad at all. Williams has had bad luck and Jake has had good luck. As a staff FIP 4.50 ERA 4.72. So over all this does relate but case by case not at all.

I wouldn't make too much of expected vs real. I look at Jake as a #4 SP and he has some luck going on that is getting him into the 2/3 conversation. Williams on the other hand should be in the 2/3 conversation but his result is #5 SP.

The rest of the SP have vastly underperformed.

So Jake has been the staff ace this year. Yes that doesn't say much because his comp is at best #5 at worst Iowa.

Regardless we are talking about 22 -10 IP of info. Most of these guys will be at 150-170 when this is over so take this as worth a grain of salt.

 

[CSF77]

Well the Cubs are smacking some Met butt today. They must have been mad with the Mets bringing in their jinx weather yesterday.

 

[CSF77]

So with the Cubs in a string of games until May 6th and Mills back in relief I am expecting Alozay up for Friday's Brewer game. I was kinda expecting Alozay used in consecutive game runs this season. Giving him a roster spot out of spring was unexpected. Being demoted was not shocking with his innings limit in place.

This string is where I though that they would have promoted him this year.

I still see him as a work in progress but I would rather have that and Mills in middle relief vs Miller. Mills allows the pen to take a off day. Miller really needs to be sent down to sort out why he was as effective and to get back to that mechanic.

 

[beckdawg]

Just the fact that anyone would think a career journeyman of Sogard's ilk is what this lineup needs....becomes yet another reason that trying to hang for a whole Cub game is such a chore.

I mean Craig Counsell had a 16 year career and played in 1600 games basically matching that description. He also was instrumental in a world series win. End of the day I don't necessarily care about talent. I want to see people who are putting in quality ABs. Even if he's not the most optimal player, making a pitcher work in an at bat has a trickle down effect where he will be worse in other match ups. So much of the cubs line up just aren't tough at bats. Maybe Baez takes you deep on a mistake but like... most of the time right now he isn't a tough out. And he's not the only one.

 

[zack54attack]

What is this offense?!

 

[zack54attack]

Javy slam!

(Why do pitchers throw him strikes right now?)

 

[Bust]

Good for him.

But
FIP to ERA

Rex Brothers 0.89/2.45
Greg Kimbrel 1.69/0.00
Brad Wieck 2.07/0.00
Andrew Chafin 2.35/3.86
Pedro Strop 3.07/0.00
Trevor Williams 3.14/5.02
Justin Steele 3.37/0.00
Dan Winkler 3.63/1.69
Jake Arrieta 3.84/2.86
Albert Alzolay 4.52/6.10
Brandon Workman 4.67/3.60
Jason Adam 4.83/1.59
Dillon Maples 4.93/2.57
Zach Davies 5.19/10.32
Alec Mills 6.16/5.06
Ryan Tepera 7.87/6.75
Kyle Hendricks 8.07/6.92
Shelby Miller 16.07/63.00

So in reality Jake is not that bad at all. Williams has had bad luck and Jake has had good luck. As a staff FIP 4.50 ERA 4.72. So over all this does relate but case by case not at all.

I wouldn't make too much of expected vs real. I look at Jake as a #4 SP and he has some luck going on that is getting him into the 2/3 conversation. Williams on the other hand should be in the 2/3 conversation but his result is #5 SP.

The rest of the SP have vastly underperformed.

So Jake has been the staff ace this year. Yes that doesn't say much because his comp is at best #5 at worst Iowa.

Regardless we are talking about 22 -10 IP of info. Most of these guys will be at 150-170 when this is over so take this as worth a grain of salt.

you over thinking. There are terms and awards in sports. Comeback player of the year, cinderella story, career year, rook of the year, cinderella season. Every team that has had a successful season in sports <particularly underdogs/low expectations> have a few of these guys who end up surprising on their roster. Can the 2021 cubs, blackhawks, bulls, white sox, bears and sky become that storyline? It's been done before.

2021 Cinderella?

 

[CSF77]

That is a huge reach. Give it a month. Jed has added if the season dictates it.

 

[Bust]

Reds lose again! Division is wide open!