IST: Cubs vs Phillies

[beckdawg]

Schwarber needs a couple weeks in Iowa til he figures it out...
What he got now 40 Ks in 100+ ABs

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I don't think he's as far off as you do. His BABIP right now is .254. If you lop another 50 or so points on to his average and OBP he'd be at roughly .250/.360/.400 which is basically where he was in 2015 though he hit for more power then. And it's definitely not all bad. He's significantly cut down on his pulling. He's currently at 35.8%/34.3%/29.9% for pull/center/oppo. Given how drastically they had played him in shifts this is probably a good thing long term going the other way and what not. And I've mentioned this before but he's near the league lead in pitchers per plate appearance. You could possibly argue he should be slightly more selective and maybe that's why he's not quite hitting balls in play as well as you would like but long story short here, I think this is something he'll work though. There's too many good signs here for it to be a true "problem."

Given my previous talk on Baez I would contrast that with Schwarber at the moment. The reason I pointed out Baez when I did is at that point he didn't appear to have a lot going for him. That's since changed a bit but with Schwarber I can sit here and tell you his walk rate is stellar and he's seeing a ton of pitches. Even if you get out those are still good at bats because you're wearing down the pitcher. And obviously while you want a better batting average at a .317 OBP he's still usable. Maybe you argue to drop him a bit in the line up which I think is fair but I don't really see the point in sending him to AAA because he probably just dominates AAA again. He needs to see MLB pitching.

Honestly just looking at the numbers it appears like he's just missing some pitches. He's basically turned line drives into infield flies and his HR/FB rate is down. To me that sure sounds like a guy who's not squaring up pitches like you'd like but eventually that will come.

 

[chibears55]

I don't think he's as far off as you do. His BABIP right now is .254. If you lop another 50 or so points on to his average and OBP he'd be at roughly .250/.360/.400 which is basically where he was in 2015 though he hit for more power then. And it's definitely not all bad. He's significantly cut down on his pulling. He's currently at 35.8%/34.3%/29.9% for pull/center/oppo. Given how drastically they had played him in shifts this is probably a good thing long term going the other way and what not. And I've mentioned this before but he's near the league lead in pitchers per plate appearance. You could possibly argue he should be slightly more selective and maybe that's why he's not quite hitting balls in play as well as you would like but long story short here, I think this is something he'll work though. There's too many good signs here for it to be a true "problem."

Given my previous talk on Baez I would contrast that with Schwarber at the moment. The reason I pointed out Baez when I did is at that point he didn't appear to have a lot going for him. That's since changed a bit but with Schwarber I can sit here and tell you his walk rate is stellar and he's seeing a ton of pitches. Even if you get out those are still good at bats because you're wearing down the pitcher. And obviously while you want a better batting average at a .317 OBP he's still usable. Maybe you argue to drop him a bit in the line up which I think is fair but I don't really see the point in sending him to AAA because he probably just dominates AAA again. He needs to see MLB pitching.

Honestly just looking at the numbers it appears like he's just missing some pitches. He's basically turned line drives into infield flies and his HR/FB rate is down. To me that sure sounds like a guy who's not squaring up pitches like you'd like but eventually that will come.

You can IF all day but reality is he didn't and is not hitting right now..
Plus
It's not just these current 100+ AB
You can go back to his last 100AB in 2015 where he struggled hitting .200..

It's spectacular what he did in playoffs but we can't just ignore his suckness in regular season and brush it off as well he takes a lot of pitches and walks so he gets a pass.

Like I said most guys at this point would be sent back to minors or benched not playing everyday and leading off..

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[beckdawg]

You can IF all day but reality is he didn't and is not hitting right now..
Plus
It's not just these current 100+ AB
You can go back to his last 100AB in 2015 where he struggled hitting .200..

It's spectacular what he did in playoffs but we can't just ignore his suckness in regular season and brush it off as well he takes a lot of pitches and walks so he gets a pass.

Like I said most guys at this point would be sent back to minors or benched not playing everyday and leading off..

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You're saying he needs to go back to the minors? Why? To get more at bats yes? How's that any different than playing in the majors now? There's two ways I suppose you could argue. One is he's hurting the team. I don't agree with that assessment as I've already laid out. Again I probably wouldn't bat him lead off given where he is right now but for someone "struggling" in the early part of the season he's not even playing that bad. Right now he's 20-105 for his .190 average. If he had 6 more hits he'd basically be hitting .250. That's literally one good week and he's back to where you'd like to see him. This is why you can't over react to short sample sizes to start a season. The underlying numbers look within line of his 2015 season.

The second reason playing in the majors is different is level of competition. Schwarber has already proven he can shit on AAA pitching. He has a 13% walk rate right now. The main thing you learn in AAA is pitchers know how to command a zone better than AA. I really don't see that being a benefit to Schwarber because his plate discipline is already exceptional. You say anyone else would be sent back to the minors but you're again missing the point. You don't get sent to the minors because you're playing bad. You get sent to the minors because you have something to work on. Schwarber is giving the team good at bats with bad results. That happens every year to players and ultimately given time they usually turn things around. I mean we saw this with Fowler 2 years ago where everyone shit on him for his first half. We've seen it with Rizzo in the past too.

Again don't get me wrong if you want to move him down in the line up to make the team more competitive or perhaps rest him some fine but I just don't see the point in sending him to AAA and I'm also guessing you'd sit him more than I would. You can't view things from an entirely results oriented stand point. Take last night for example. He went 0-3 with 3k's and a walk. However, he saw 23 pitches in 4 plate appearances. Between him and Heyward those two accounted for 47 pitches in 8 plate appearances. Most starters these days don't go more than 90 or 100 pitches meaning just being in the line up they forced the starter to work enough that he didn't complete 6 innings and even though Schwarber didn't get a hit he still was on base. This is what I'm talking about when I say he's having productive at bats. Eickhoff tired in the 6th and the cubs put up 4 runs which ultimately was the difference in the game. Prior to that inning he was cruising with 2 hits and 2 walks through 5.

This isn't to excuse away "sucking" as you'd put it. These are hallmarks of what good hitters do. We're all smart enough to realize people go through tough stretches where balls don't land and you never get the calls at the plate. That's baseball. But if you're doing the right things which Schwarber's underlying numbers suggest he is, eventually things should turn around.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You can IF all day but reality is he didn't and is not hitting right now..
Plus
It's not just these current 100+ AB
You can go back to his last 100AB in 2015 where he struggled hitting .200..

It's spectacular what he did in playoffs but we can't just ignore his suckness in regular season and brush it off as well he takes a lot of pitches and walks so he gets a pass.

Like I said most guys at this point would be sent back to minors or benched not playing everyday and leading off..

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Beckdawg hit most of this brilliantly but let me emphasise a couple of points. His BABIP is .254, you realize that's going to normalize right? When it does his numbers will go up. I was listening to Maddon making this exact same point the other day and he also said something like when this kid gets hot look out. I'd agree with that. Now, all that said, I'd probably sit him for a day or two and maybe drop him down in the order and let Zo leadoff but that's not what Maddon is going to do and I'm ok with that. You mention that most players would be sent down by now and I strongly disagree with you. Power hitters are rarely sent down unless their is something specific in their approach that could be worked on in AAA. Joc Pederson struggled mightily in 2015 and wasn't demoted. Schwarber is a special hitter and he's being treated like one and being allowed to fail and learn. This a kid with 402 PA and yet we've seen what he can do. He isn't hurting the team as they're scoring 5.074 runs per game as opposed to 4.98 in 2016. Let him learn. We all see who this kid is, let him learn.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Welcome to crazy ass lineup day!

 

[CSF77]

I like that they are giving guys a day off but it has the feel of toss Lackey under the bus day.

I wonder if his head pops off when the steam comes out of his ears?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I like that they are giving guys a day off but it has the feel of toss Lackey under the bus day.

I wonder if his head pops off when the steam comes out of his ears?

Yeah it kind of feels that way. Eflin is promising young pitcher too.

 

[brett05]

Promising young pitchers need to be hazed. This isn't the day to give players off. Confidence can be built here.

 

[chibears55]

You're saying he needs to go back to the minors? Why? To get more at bats yes? How's that any different than playing in the majors now? There's two ways I suppose you could argue. One is he's hurting the team. I don't agree with that assessment as I've already laid out. Again I probably wouldn't bat him lead off given where he is right now but for someone "struggling" in the early part of the season he's not even playing that bad. Right now he's 20-105 for his .190 average. If he had 6 more hits he'd basically be hitting .250. That's literally one good week and he's back to where you'd like to see him. This is why you can't over react to short sample sizes to start a season. The underlying numbers look within line of his 2015 season.

The second reason playing in the majors is different is level of competition. Schwarber has already proven he can shit on AAA pitching. He has a 13% walk rate right now. The main thing you learn in AAA is pitchers know how to command a zone better than AA. I really don't see that being a benefit to Schwarber because his plate discipline is already exceptional. You say anyone else would be sent back to the minors but you're again missing the point. You don't get sent to the minors because you're playing bad. You get sent to the minors because you have something to work on. Schwarber is giving the team good at bats with bad results. That happens every year to players and ultimately given time they usually turn things around. I mean we saw this with Fowler 2 years ago where everyone shit on him for his first half. We've seen it with Rizzo in the past too.

Again don't get me wrong if you want to move him down in the line up to make the team more competitive or perhaps rest him some fine but I just don't see the point in sending him to AAA and I'm also guessing you'd sit him more than I would. You can't view things from an entirely results oriented stand point. Take last night for example. He went 0-3 with 3k's and a walk. However, he saw 23 pitches in 4 plate appearances. Between him and Heyward those two accounted for 47 pitches in 8 plate appearances. Most starters these days don't go more than 90 or 100 pitches meaning just being in the line up they forced the starter to work enough that he didn't complete 6 innings and even though Schwarber didn't get a hit he still was on base. This is what I'm talking about when I say he's having productive at bats. Eickhoff tired in the 6th and the cubs put up 4 runs which ultimately was the difference in the game. Prior to that inning he was cruising with 2 hits and 2 walks through 5.

This isn't to excuse away "sucking" as you'd put it. These are hallmarks of what good hitters do. We're all smart enough to realize people go through tough stretches where balls don't land and you never get the calls at the plate. That's baseball. But if you're doing the right things which Schwarber's underlying numbers suggest he is, eventually things should turn around.

Ok.. here my thing with Schwarber..
I like the guy and I'm pulling for him but we have no idea what kind of major league hitter he'll be..

All we have is what we hope and fantasize he'll be from what we saw from his hot start and playoffs..
But in reality he hasn't done much of anything in the regular season since his start..

After his 27th game in 2015 he was hitting .352, since that mark he played 42 games to end of season had 157 AB and 26 hits .165 Avg with 52 Ks.

0 for 4 2 Ks in 2016

So far this year he has 105 AB 20 hits .190 38 Ks

Since that 27th game, he has 266 AB 46 Hits .172 92 Ks

That what we have seen for the most part from Kyle Schwarber in his short major league career..

So we can IF and say all he needs is a solid week all day but fact is we haven't really seen that from him yet.

Why I'm looking at Schwarber as just another young player who struggling at the major league level and could probably use either some time off to work on things on the side or a trip to Iowa and work on it there til he ready to come back..


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[TC in Mississippi]

Ok.. here my thing with Schwarber..
I like the guy and I'm pulling for him but we have no idea what kind of major league hitter he'll be..

All we have is what we hope and fantasize he'll be from what we saw from his hot start and playoffs..
But in reality he hasn't done much of anything in the regular season since his start..

After his 27th game in 2015 he was hitting .352, since that mark he played 42 games to end of season had 157 AB and 26 hits .165 Avg with 52 Ks.

0 for 4 2 Ks in 2016

So far this year he has 105 AB 20 hits .190 38 Ks

Since that 27th game, he has 266 AB 46 Hits .172 92 Ks

That what we have seen for the most part from Kyle Schwarber in his short major league career..

So we can IF and say all he needs is a solid week all day but fact is we haven't really seen that from him yet.

Why I'm looking at Schwarber as just another young player who struggling at the major league level and could probably use either some time off to work on things on the side or a trip to Iowa and work on it there til he ready to come back..


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We can certainly disagree, that's completely fair and you're giving evidence for your argument which makes your opinion a valid one. From my viewpoint though you're looking only at results and not scouting the player from a visual standpoint. As beckdawg pointed out Schwarber has a solid plate approach which usually leads to quality AB even when he makes an out. His BB/9 is an outstanding 13.7. When you examine his failures the BA should be at least 50 points higher if his BABIP was over .300 as it had been throughout his minor league career. So that leaves the K's which no question needs to be improved on. So what do you see there? He tends to chase balls out of the zone, not because he doesn't see the ball but because he's pressing and the only way you get through that is through repetition on the MLB level. He's already proved himself in the minor leagues. So in the end where you see a struggling player that needs to go to the minors I see a player who's doing most of the right things, has a great plate approach, almost certainly the best natural swing on the team and one who will likely turn it around in the course of a long season.

 

[Diehardfan]

We can certainly disagree, that's completely fair and you're giving evidence for your argument which makes your opinion a valid one. From my viewpoint though you're looking only at results and not scouting the player from a visual standpoint. As beckdawg pointed out Schwarber has a solid plate approach which usually leads to quality AB even when he makes an out. His BB/9 is an outstanding 13.7. When you examine his failures the BA should be at least 50 points higher if his BABIP was over .300 as it had been throughout his minor league career. So that leaves the K's which no question needs to be improved on. So what do you see there? He tends to chase balls out of the zone, not because he doesn't see the ball but because he's pressing and the only way you get through that is through repetition on the MLB level. He's already proved himself in the minor leagues. So in the end where you see a struggling player that needs to go to the minors I see a player who's doing most of the right things, has a great plate approach, almost certainly the best natural swing on the team and one who will likely turn it around in the course of a long season.

This...

What's the point of going to the minors to face lower level pitching? If he pounds the crap out of the ball...it was what he was supposed to do. If does the same or worse...now his confidence is really taking a beating. He's just a kid. But he's a kid with a terrific natural swing. Let him work his way out of it....in Wrigley Field.

 

[chibears55]

Beckdawg hit most of this brilliantly but let me emphasise a couple of points. His BABIP is .254, you realize that's going to normalize right? When it does his numbers will go up. I was listening to Maddon making this exact same point the other day and he also said something like when this kid gets hot look out. I'd agree with that. Now, all that said, I'd probably sit him for a day or two and maybe drop him down in the order and let Zo leadoff but that's not what Maddon is going to do and I'm ok with that. You mention that most players would be sent down by now and I strongly disagree with you. Power hitters are rarely sent down unless their is something specific in their approach that could be worked on in AAA. Joc Pederson struggled mightily in 2015 and wasn't demoted. Schwarber is a special hitter and he's being treated like one and being allowed to fail and learn. This a kid with 402 PA and yet we've seen what he can do. He isn't hurting the team as they're scoring 5.074 runs per game as opposed to 4.98 in 2016. Let him learn. We all see who this kid is, let him learn.

We'll just disagree..

I will say though just because you look good at something doesn't necessary mean you're going to succeed..
We've seen him look good for all those AB but we haven't seen him succeed on a consistent basis..

I'm not given up on the guy and I hope he gets it going..
I'm just being real here and pointing out that postseason aside, we haven't really seen him do much in regular season ..

No he not seriously hurting the team but he not exactly helping either..

My only reason for sending him down for a bit is that maybe he can work on hitting ball other way more and work on just making contact..
Plus
Sometimes just getting a few solid games under belt and stringing some hits together can give some confidence even if it in minors..
He goes 2 for next 20 with some Ks, we could see a kid start doubting himself and pressing more..

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[chibears55]

I like that they are giving guys a day off but it has the feel of toss Lackey under the bus day.

I wonder if his head pops off when the steam comes out of his ears?

Maybe this is Maddon sneaky way of getting Lackey to bear down and focus more by putting out a lineup that might struggle to score..

But if you really think about it the only guy missing that been hitting is Heyward..
Schwarber and Zobrist, not so good..
Contreras, day game after night game

Montero Jay Almora has been hitting good..

Szczur needs AB to stay fresh, especially if their looking to trade him for something worth while..

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[chibears55]

Already looking better to start this game..

No runs given up in 1st inning

Cubs leadoff hitter reached base..

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[CSF77]

Maybe this is Maddon sneaky way of getting Lackey to bear down and focus more by putting out a lineup that might struggle to score..

But if you really think about it the only guy missing that been hitting is Heyward..
Schwarber and Zobrist, not so good..
Contreras, day game after night game

Montero Jay Almora has been hitting good..

Szczur needs AB to stay fresh, especially if their looking to trade him for something worth while..

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I'm not buying that. Resting 2 guys I can buy. Holding 3 regulars and benching 5 I can't.

All aboard the bus toss.

 

[CSF77]

We can certainly disagree, that's completely fair and you're giving evidence for your argument which makes your opinion a valid one. From my viewpoint though you're looking only at results and not scouting the player from a visual standpoint. As beckdawg pointed out Schwarber has a solid plate approach which usually leads to quality AB even when he makes an out. His BB/9 is an outstanding 13.7. When you examine his failures the BA should be at least 50 points higher if his BABIP was over .300 as it had been throughout his minor league career. So that leaves the K's which no question needs to be improved on. So what do you see there? He tends to chase balls out of the zone, not because he doesn't see the ball but because he's pressing and the only way you get through that is through repetition on the MLB level. He's already proved himself in the minor leagues. So in the end where you see a struggling player that needs to go to the minors I see a player who's doing most of the right things, has a great plate approach, almost certainly the best natural swing on the team and one who will likely turn it around in the course of a long season.

The problem with always going deep into counts he is letting good hittable pitches go by early in the count. That is why I prefer zone hitting in the early counts. Pick your hit zones and trigger on those pitches. If you get fooled on MPH or not seeing the ball spin that is part of it. When a player starts seeing the ball better, like Baez is doing, then the ball becomes easier to read and they can lay off of bad pitches.

The key is to target pitches that you can drive early. So passive aggressive approach. Later count if ahead stick with the same. Behind become more aggressive.

But you should never let a meat ball wiz by.

 

[chibears55]

I'm not buying that. Resting 2 guys I can buy. Holding 3 regulars and benching 5 I can't.

All aboard the bus toss.

I was joking..

Though Lackey looking sharp early on..

Actually Sczur is only true bench guy playing..

Everyone else in Jay Almora and Montero been getting regular ABs either PH, getting ABs later in game, or starting..



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[chibears55]

Lol..

Jay Almora and Szczur
Probably done as much or more production in their first AB then they might've gotten out of Schwarber Zobrist Heyward combined

3 hits RBI R

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[CSF77]

And 13 innings later...

 

[SilenceS]

Better to be lucky then good. Fly the W