IST: Cubs vs Pirates

[chibears55]

If Hendricks comes back close to his career norms it'll be a big boost. Lester is probably the best and most consistent guy right now. Arrieta can be brilliant or pretty not great. Lackey outside of getting shelled in washington hasn't been that bad his past 5 starts. 6 ip 3 ER, 5.1 8 ER(Was), 6 ip 1 ER, 6 ip 1 ER, and 5 IP 4 ER. I mean that's not like top of the rotation good but as a #4/5 type starter you can live with that outside of the washington start. The problem as I see it right now with the rotation is ideally you'd only be getting 1 start out of Montgomery/Lackey/Butler with the other 2 being depth. But as is right now all 3 are starting right now because they have Hendricks hurt and obviously haven't moved in on another starter trade wise as of yet.

Assuming they find a trade target, I think you can ride this group to the playoffs. I'm not 100% sure how they will look in the playoffs. At the moment they would seem fairly weak matched up against other teams but Hendricks could always return closer to 2016 than his career norms and Arrieta could find some consistency.

Here how I'm looking at it barring a trade...

They'll have 76 games left in 2nd half, so the rotation will go around 15 times..

Depending how they do this weekend they'll have 43 44 or 45 wins...

So, no matter what they have , Cubs will most likely need at least 45 wins in 2nd half to hopefully win division, unless Brewers totally collapse..

Here what I feel is fair to look for in team wins per starter in their 15 remaining starts to get to 45 wins..

Lester .. Need at least 10 wins

Arrieta .. He been up n down, need at least 10 wins

Hendricks.. No clue what were going to get from him after injury, need at least 8 wins

Lackey .. Have very little confidence in team winning more then losing in his starts, need at least 8 wins

Montgmery/Butler/Anderson..
Whoever pitches here, need to get at least 8 win

So, that 44 team wins if Lester and Arrieta can win at least 2/3 of their starts and the rest can just win more then they lose in their starts..


So, the question is how much confidence do you have in each of these starters to be able to do that in 2nd half..

Using 0-10 scale for level of confidence

Lester. 8
Arrieta 6
Hendricks 6
Lackey 4
Others 3


My confidence overall is low


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[CSF77]

Honestly Lester getting 10 wins the 2nd half....no. Cap 7 at best. He has not been dominate this year at all

Jake can get red hot. I'm actually almost leaning that he has 10 2nd wins....weird

Hendricks: he wins pure and simple when he has his stuff. I'm picking 10 wins honestly.

Lackey. He is a .500 pitcher. 15 games: 6/6 3 ND. He tends to get his decisions

The 5 is a black hole right now. I'm not feeling 5 wins here.

 

[chibears55]

Honestly Lester getting 10 wins the 2nd half....no. Cap 7 at best. He has not been dominate this year at all

Jake can get red hot. I'm actually almost leaning that he has 10 2nd wins....weird

Hendricks: he wins pure and simple when he has his stuff. I'm picking 10 wins honestly.

Lackey. He is a .500 pitcher. 15 games: 6/6 3 ND. He tends to get his decisions

The 5 is a black hole right now. I'm not feeling 5 wins here.

So, you have about 38 team wins in 2nd half..

Weird how you have more confidence in a up n down Arrieta and unknown after injury Hendricks then you do with guy who suppose to be their Ace, Lester .
Heck you only have him winning 1 more then unreliable Lackey..lol

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[CSF77]

So, you have about 38 team wins in 2nd half..

Weird how you have more confidence in a up n down Arrieta and unknown after injury Hendricks then you do with guy who suppose to be their Ace, Lester .
Heck you only have him winning 1 more then unreliable Lackey..lol

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Lester is not the same without Ross.

Jake and Hendricks honestly are better when they use their curveballs at a higher frequency. Montero did not call for them as much as Contreras did. That pitch changed Hendricks from a .500 pitcher with a mid 3 to a ERA leader.

So yes both I do believe can improve vastly with out Montero calling their games. Lester has worked only with Contreras and he has looked off this year. So I'm guessing it will work out better next year.

 

[chibears55]

Lester is not the same without Ross.

Jake and Hendricks honestly are better when they use their curveballs at a higher frequency. Montero did not call for them as much as Contreras did. That pitch changed Hendricks from a .500 pitcher with a mid 3 to a ERA leader.

So yes both I do believe can improve vastly with out Montero calling their games. Lester has worked only with Contreras and he has looked off this year. So I'm guessing it will work out better next year.

Hope you're right cause they'll definitely need all 3 to up their game to have any chance in 2nd half..

Hendricks pitching for Tennessee Monday, So expect to see him up and make a start next weekend

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[CSF77]

I'll follow Hendricks. What I'm looking for is getting into the 5th. You have to figure his stuff will be rusty. So the results will be iffy. I'm looking at pitch count and economy of his pitches right now.

 

[chibears55]

Schwarber last 2 AB is the approach I hope we see from him the rest of year....


Happ is going to be a monster as he gets grows in this game..



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[CSF77]

Ya Happ really would be a ROY leader if he had a whole season to work with. Combined at 24 HR's now.

 

[Globetrotter]

Blown away Arrieta was left in for the 6th....and is still in.

Happ 164 AB / 30 RB1
Bryant 292 AB / 38 RBI

 

[chibears55]

Happ and Schwarber only starters to reach base..
Everyone else 0 for 3



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[Globetrotter]

Cubs haven't won 2 in a row in over a month. Be nice to turn this one around, win tomorrow and get some rest over the break.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs haven't won 2 in a row in over a month. Be nice to turn this one around, win tomorrow and get some rest over the break.

Why with this rotation and inconsistent offense, I just can't get myself to believe their going to be any better then a mediocre .500 team...

They just can't seem to get the hitting and pitching rolling together for a good stretch..

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[Globetrotter]

Couldn't agree more. It's unfortunate the bullpen's recent dominance has been for not.

LA, ARI, COL and WASH are playing at a whole other level, anyway.

 

[PickSix]

This starting pitching staff is just a diarrhea fest.

 

[chibears55]

No need to watch the rest of this game....

Can't even beat the frickn pirates at home with their 2 top starters going..
Don't know how anyone expects this team to be any better in 2nd half..

80-84 wins top..anyone still wanna call me crazy?

Who was it that thought they'd be 10 over after today ?

I said last week they'll be 5 out going into break..
Looks like they'll be either 5 or 6 after today..



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[TL1961]

Another error on Contreras.

13 in half a season.

And that doesn't even count all the missed balls in the dirt or drops on nearly every third strike.

Seriously, he has to throw to first on 50% of K's.

 

[beckdawg]

Don't know how anyone expects this team to be any better in 2nd half..

Baseball rarely works linearly. Teams will often be either red hot or decidedly terrible. We saw that last year with the hot start early, the june/july swoon and then a rebound after the all star break. I look at it like this. Can it realistically get worse? Obviously with injuries that's a yes but assuming no one gets hurt can they play worse than they have in the first half? I struggle to find a way. So, if that assumption is correct then we have already seen their floor and that's basically a .500 team.

Now we don't know that they will improve but baseball is a strange game. Sometimes you can hit the shit out of a ball and it goes right at a defender for weeks on end. Other times any time you make contact it seems to find a hole in the defense no matter how hard you hit it. The cubs right now feel like a team that when anything can go wrong it has. But over a long period that doesn't hold.

 

[TL1961]

2 games under and well out of first at the break.

Pitching is bad.
Fielding is bad.
Hitting is bad.

Solution: More lineup changes!

 

[TL1961]

This starting pitching staff is just a diarrhea fest.

It might help a little to field the ball. 2nd in the league in errors.

Start playing the best defensive lineup and leave it alone for a month.

 

[beckdawg]

On the plus side, Schwarber seems to be back.