IST: Cubs vs Pirates

[CSF77]

It would be funny if Jake bounces back and puts up a 2.5-3.5 ERA after soaking the Phills for 3 years.

Makes Theo and Jed into seer's.

 

[CSF77]

Lol @ those on here thinking arrieta was going to have any sort of a bounce back year. He’s washed up hot garbage at this point.

took him 27 pitches to get thru the first inning against the worst team in baseball. Going to be a rough year for the cubs

If you think about it Jed paid him back of the rotation cash. If Jed gets anything more than inning filler it is gravy.

Jake right now has little to prove. He is slotted between Hendricks and Davies because they are clones. So they need a different look in-between. It could have been either Jake or Williams but Jake is a easier sale.

Now going forward. If he gets over 150 IP but closer to 180 and keeps his ERA under 4.5 then you can think of 1 year deals around the same cash. The rotation is going through transition this year. Most likely Jed sells Williams or Davies. Marquez is in AA and you can expect a push button if he dominates that league. Aug 1 for him the the best case.

So in view of this retaining Jake to teach and provide back of the rotation production while Marquez and Alozay mature is a good thing.

That said Jed is going to have to get a upgrade to Kyle for 2022. A TOR added to those 4 makes the rotation fun to watch.

 

[beckdawg]

Lol @ those on here thinking arrieta was going to have any sort of a bounce back year. He’s washed up hot garbage at this point.

took him 27 pitches to get thru the first inning against the worst team in baseball. Going to be a rough year for the cubs

I mean define bounce back year. Is he gonna have a 3 ERA? Hell no unless something crazy happens. Can he have a 4 or a high 3 ERA? I don't think that's all that crazy. I think he can replicate his 2018 season with Philly.

 

[beckdawg]

Also... i wanna see javy attempt to steal more this year. The break even point on being worth it is like 67%. Javy on his career was 71.6% prior to today. Cubs in general haven't pushed stealing much but when utilized correctly it can be a big impact. Didn't matter so much in the outcome today but his 2 steals lead to a run.

 

[zack54attack]

Nice outing by Jake today.

Kimbrel looked good.

 

[Bust]

Lol @ those on here thinking arrieta was going to have any sort of a bounce back year. He’s washed up hot garbage at this point.

took him 27 pitches to get thru the first inning against the worst team in baseball. Going to be a rough year for the cubs

He signed for what? 6 million for one year?? He's a bargain. In an elimination game I'd take jake at this stage of his career taking the mound over a scrub like Quintana all day every day

 

[CSF77]

He signed for what? 6 million for one year?? He's a bargain. In an elimination game I'd take jake at this stage of his career taking the mound over a scrub like Quintana all day every day

year/$6M (2021)

• signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 2/17/21
• 21:$4M, 22:$10M mutual option ($2M buyout)
• performance bonuses: $250,000 each for 150, 160, 170, 180 innings pitched

 

[CSF77]

I'm pretty sure if he posts 180 IP and a 4 ish ERA Jed will happily trigger it.

 

[CSF77]

I mean define bounce back year. Is he gonna have a 3 ERA? Hell no unless something crazy happens. Can he have a 4 or a high 3 ERA? I don't think that's all that crazy. I think he can replicate his 2018 season with Philly.

He could in theory. There are plenty of starters that lost velocity and changed from a primary fastball to a primary breaking pitch pitcher.

Basically they use breaking pitches in the zone to set up a high 4 seam. Vs using 4 seams to set up a breaking pitch in the dirt.

If Jake has strong command of his offspeed and sets up his fastball up in the zone he could keep mid 3.00. Kyle pitched in the 2.00 range with a 89 mph fastball in 2016 so we are not talking about impossible. Improbable sure.

 

[knoxville7]

He could in theory. There are plenty of starters that lost velocity and changed from a primary fastball to a primary breaking pitch pitcher.

Basically they use breaking pitches in the zone to set up a high 4 seam. Vs using 4 seams to set up a breaking pitch in the dirt.

If Jake has strong command of his offspeed and sets up his fastball up in the zone he could keep mid 3.00. Kyle pitched in the 2.00 range with a 89 mph fastball in 2016 so we are not talking about impossible. Improbable sure.

hendricks in 2016 was like 26 years old. Arrieta is currently 34. Let’s not compare apples to mountains here.

 

[SilenceS]

Two games in and the doom is already here. Loves it

 

[CSF77]

hendricks in 2016 was like 26 years old. Arrieta is currently 34. Let’s not compare apples to mountains here.

Pitchers lose velocity with age. Jake has gone from a 96 MPH pitcher to a 92 MPH pitcher. Both are faster than Kyle on a good day.

Age doesn't affect location of pitched. Shape of breaking pitches. What age does is give experience and that is why throwers adjust into pitchers as they lose velocity.

There is nothing that says that Jake can not be successful. There is a long history of guys like him that are successful with a loss of velocity.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

hendricks in 2016 was like 26 years old. Arrieta is currently 34. Let’s not compare apples to mountains here.

My issue with that comparison isn't the age, but comparing arrieta who has always lacked control to Hendricks who has relied on pinpoint control his entire career. Also Hendricks is incredibly intelligent and knows how to set hitters up as well as any pitcher in the league. That is what is disingenuous about the comp

 

[SilenceS]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1378723349778563072

 

[knoxville7]

My issue with that comparison isn't the age, but comparing arrieta who has always lacked control to Hendricks who has relied on pinpoint control his entire career. Also Hendricks is incredibly intelligent and knows how to set hitters up as well as any pitcher in the league. That is what is disingenuous about the comp

exactly. You beat me to it...that was going to be my next point.

making arrieta/hendricks comparisons is extremely LOL

I’ll admit, Jake bounced back nicely after the first inning. But, it was against a minor league lineup. He is going to get wrecked against good lineups. Time will tell, though

 

[zack54attack]

Rex Brothers. oof.

 

[zack54attack]

Lucky to get out of that..

 

[SilenceS]

Cubs win the series. Kimbrel continues to pitch well. The bullpen sets up a lot better. Wick should be back in a month or so.

Davies pitched well, but got some trouble closing out the 6th. Good opening start.

Onto the next one

 

[knoxville7]

Cubs win the series. Kimbrel continues to pitch well. The bullpen sets up a lot better. Wick should be back in a month or so.

Davies pitched well, but got some trouble closing out the 6th. Good opening start.

Onto the next one

Kimbrel might net them a nice prospect or two come the deadline along with Davies

 

[RacerX]

Kimbrel might net them a nice prospect or two come the deadline along with Davies

Agreed, he may yet become a valued asset. Wold not have guessed as much at any point last season.