IST: Cubs vs Reds

[DanTown]

He hits to all fields more often than rizzo and bryant this year...

bryant - 41.7%/33.3%/25.0% pull/center/oppo
rizzo - 51.2%/28.9%/19.8%
Schwarber - 40.0%/32.6%/27.4%

As for the contact, he's not even a year in the majors yet. Bryant had a 66.3% contact rate his first 650 PAs in the majors. Schwarber is at 71.0%. People need to relax.

Ground ball rate above 40% with a fairly low line drive rate doesn't speak to his hitting being very good. Rizzo right now has similar numbers and you see him struggling too. AAA isn't the majors, tons of good hitters have come up to the majors with similar if not better tools and never figured it out. When I look at Kyle and his approach, I see power but I don't see future high value average hitting. Considering his ONLY path to future value is being a dynamic hitter, I can fear that projection.

Basically, I'd bet on Torres having a higher career WAR than Schwarber and basically that's what the Cubs had to decide to trade last season.

 

[CSF77]

Let's see. Schwarber 1 hit. 1 run. 2 RBI. Win. Nothing to see here.

 

[CSF77]

Ground ball rate above 40% with a fairly low line drive rate doesn't speak to his hitting being very good. Rizzo right now has similar numbers and you see him struggling too. AAA isn't the majors, tons of good hitters have come up to the majors with similar if not better tools and never figured it out. When I look at Kyle and his approach, I see power but I don't see future high value average hitting. Considering his ONLY path to future value is being a dynamic hitter, I can fear that projection.

Basically, I'd bet on Torres having a higher career WAR than Schwarber and basically that's what the Cubs had to decide to trade last season.

Torres has not clear path on the Cubs. Yanks had a choice of Torres or Eloy. I'll bet Eloy becomes a all star.

Kyle is still maturing. Until he has a few years in the majors we won't really know how good he is.

What I do know is he was in a 0-17 slump and he has a few hits. Let's see how he continues on this 10 day home stand.

 

[beckdawg]

Ground ball rate above 40% with a fairly low line drive rate doesn't speak to his hitting being very good. Rizzo right now has similar numbers and you see him struggling too. AAA isn't the majors, tons of good hitters have come up to the majors with similar if not better tools and never figured it out. When I look at Kyle and his approach, I see power but I don't see future high value average hitting. Considering his ONLY path to future value is being a dynamic hitter, I can fear that projection.

Basically, I'd bet on Torres having a higher career WAR than Schwarber and basically that's what the Cubs had to decide to trade last season.

I honestly don't see why you're going against the thought process of a front office that has built the quality of young hitters the cubs have right now and also largely built the young core of hitting the red sox also have right now. I could sit here and refute your stance on Schwarber all day long but why waste that time? The front office has proven they know what they are doing. Why not trust them?

 

[DanTown]

I honestly don't see why you're going against the thought process of a front office that has built the quality of young hitters the cubs have right now and also largely built the young core of hitting the red sox also have right now. I could sit here and refute your stance on Schwarber all day long but why waste that time? The front office has proven they know what they are doing. Why not trust them?

You're going to question why I give my opinion on an internet message board?

Secondly, I loved the idea of the team they built: a ton of guys who go out, catch the ball, throw the ball, are decent hitters, and can give you values in multitudes of ways. And have flexibility to play multiple spots to help make up for injuries and slumps that are inevitable of a 162 game season. Schwarber is basically the one guy who ISN'T that way. So if I trust the franchise and what I feel was the right thing to do (try and find guys who both hit and field to make pitchers better) then I'll question the fascination with a hitter and poor fielder in Schwarber, who I think can be a fine MLB player but the Cubs traded Torres for Chapman because they turned down Schwarber for Miller. It's hard for me to argue Schwarber's value is greater than Torres to begin with; it's even harder to argue that he's better than two seasons of Andrew Miller on top of it.

 

[DanTown]

Torres has not clear path on the Cubs. Yanks had a choice of Torres or Eloy. I'll bet Eloy becomes a all star.

Kyle is still maturing. Until he has a few years in the majors we won't really know how good he is.

What I do know is he was in a 0-17 slump and he has a few hits. Let's see how he continues on this 10 day home stand.

Well if Eloy becomes a star, where does he do it?

I said it then, I'll ask it again, you can have the following two packages

Option A
- Schwarber (unlikely to play in 2016 playoffs)
- One post Season of Chapman

or
- Torres
- Three post seasons of Miller
- Warren
- McKinney

Even if you want to argue Warren and McKinney are nothing (which I'll agree with), the extra two seasons of Miller PLUS the non-risk of Schwarber of the ACL makes me question the deal. I mean, you could have easily moved Torres to 3B and Bryant to LF. Or Torres to SS and Russell to 2B. Or Torres to 2B.

I actually don't even mind them trading Torres and trying to win the 2016 World Series; I minded them trading them Torres over Schwarber.

 

[beckdawg]

You're going to question why I give my opinion on an internet message board?

My issue with you is you're complaining about a guy who has played 107 games in the majors with a year layoff for injury and his first 69 games came a year after he was drafted which was a very quick promotion. Bryant spent a full 2 years in the minors(181 games and 773 PAs) while Schwarber played 147 games in the minors(519 PAs). You're basically talking about the 69 game stint in the majors Schwarber played being Schwarber's "AAA" experience. And let's not forget that Bryant took a giant step forward year 2 in the majors. We've seen what he has done to the best of the best in pitching during the playoffs. He's one of the few that did anything in the playoffs vs Andrew Miller and obviously it was extraordinary he was even playing to begin with. He also mashed in the 2015 playoffs.

The problem I have with you're Adam Dunn comp is a couple fold. One, Adam Dunn was a career 15.8%/28.6% bb/k rate guy. Schwarber is at 14.5%/26.7% this season when he's playing poorly and obviously not done developing. It's easily conceivable he drops 4-5% off his K rate over the next year or two and gets into that 22%ish range. The second issue I have is that you're some what drastically underselling Dunn here. What killed his value was his defense obviously. In 2005 for example he was worth 35.7 offensive and -24.4 defensive meaning he was worth 3.6 wins as a hitter and -2.4 as a defender. That's a bit crude as there's some positional adjustments and what not also figured in but you roughly get the idea. If he was defense neutral he would have been a 6 win player. Schwarber despite all the complaints about his defense hasn't been *that* bad. He's been -4.4 over those 107 games and he's been -1 over 36 games this year. The last issue I have with the Dunn comp is that he's really two players. Dunn in the NL was a far better player than when he got pushed over to the AL. He basically was a .260/.380/.530ish hitter. in the NL. If that's what Schwarber is as a below average but not terrible LF defensively that's an MVP candidate. Rizzo as an example hit .292/.385/.544 last year.

And all of this is before you even start talking about the intangibles which Schwarber obviously has in his favor. Few people in the majors would have worked as hard as he has to get back in the 2016 season. The players seem to love him. I wouldn't bet against him.

 

[TL1961]

Ground ball rate above 40% with a fairly low line drive rate doesn't speak to his hitting being very good. Rizzo right now has similar numbers and you see him struggling too. AAA isn't the majors, tons of good hitters have come up to the majors with similar if not better tools and never figured it out. When I look at Kyle and his approach, I see power but I don't see future high value average hitting. Considering his ONLY path to future value is being a dynamic hitter, I can fear that projection.

Basically, I'd bet on Torres having a higher career WAR than Schwarber and basically that's what the Cubs had to decide to trade last season.

They traded the difference in WAR between Torres and Russell, instead of the difference between Schwarber and....?

 

[chibears55]

Well if Eloy becomes a star, where does he do it?

I said it then, I'll ask it again, you can have the following two packages

Option A
- Schwarber (unlikely to play in 2016 playoffs)
- One post Season of Chapman

or
- Torres
- Three post seasons of Miller
- Warren
- McKinney

Even if you want to argue Warren and McKinney are nothing (which I'll agree with), the extra two seasons of Miller PLUS the non-risk of Schwarber of the ACL makes me question the deal. I mean, you could have easily moved Torres to 3B and Bryant to LF. Or Torres to SS and Russell to 2B. Or Torres to 2B.

I actually don't even mind them trading Torres and trying to win the 2016 World Series; I minded them trading them Torres over Schwarber.

I'm not going to disagree with your thoughts here..
But
Keep in mind, as much as I'm down on Scwarber play now.. they probably don't win the WS without him in the lineup those 4 games..

And as much as I would of preferred having Miller in a deal, Chapman was a big part of them succeeding in the playoffs and getting to a game 7 in WS...

So yes today we can sit here and say we wish we had Torres and Miller on our team, but back in October and November we were lucky to of had Schwarber and Chapman..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

I didn't like the idea of trading a top prospect for a rental. It is bad business in general.

But that situation was unique. If it was this year and they used Eloy to get a rental they should be fired.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Schwarber is not Adam Dunn. If you're really down on him you can make the comparison to Mike Napoli but I think he's a better hitter and like beckdawg I think Kyle's capable of getting his K rate down to about 22% over the next couple of years while Napoli's career K rate is 27%. Will he definitely improve to that level? Hell I don't know but I see the makings of a special player and nothing I've seen this year has changed that.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

 

[CSF77]

Tough lefty on the hill

 

[chibears55]

Guessing when Heyward returns on Friday or Saturday..
Maddon going to keep 8 relievers and Happ up..
So, may be the end of Almora for a while

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[TC in Mississippi]

Baez grand slam!

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Guessing when Heyward returns on Friday or Saturday..
Maddon going to keep 8 relievers and Happ up..
So, may be the end of Almora for a while

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Boy that would be stupid.

 

[anotheridiot]

the twitter guy that posted Javys Grand Slam said there goes the trade rumors, so he thinks they like Happ over Javy. Javy will be a star glove man somewhere.

So Butler did not pitch well enough to earn another start huh? Are they going to throw him after LAckey and make our third ace Hendricks the 5 again?

 

[anotheridiot]

Boy that would be stupid.

I cant see why they cant find a trade partner for Stella.

 

[zack54attack]

Man, Baez pimped that to first base. Boss strut.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I cant see why they cant find a trade partner for Stella.

He's the perfect bench guy for this team I'd hate to see him go and keeping him was the reason they let Szczur go. Plus there just isn't enough playing time for all these guys and LaStella doesn't need playing time. Maybe they keep Happ up for the weekend and go with 12 pitchers, but it wouldn't shock me at all to see him sent down on Friday either. I just can't see them sending Almora down as he's the only true CF on the team.