IST: Cubs vs Reds

[TC in Mississippi]

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not being negative...

Just see too many question marks with this group..

Sometimes you gotta put down the koolaid and look at it realistically..

You're not being realistic. This isn't the Bears. The Cubs play 10x more games in a season than the NFL. Quit living and dying by each inning. That isn't how baseball works. You expect hitters to get "consistent". That also isn't how the game works unless you are 2018 Mike Trout. Every hitter has highs and lows in a season. Every hitter has streaks. 1st in Batting Average, but you complain about the players. 1st in ERA, but the pitching sucks. Yes. You are negative no matter how you try to spin it.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not in the mood to have this whole conversation so I'll I'm gonna say is this. I'd much rather the cubs be on a 95 win pace and be playing "inconsistent" than them be playing out of their minds on that same pace. There's a lot of meat on the bone still to improve. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if this team wins over 100 games.

 

[CSF77]

To be honest here when it comes to the he O it starts with the lead off. Zo is too old to be the main guy and they have flipped it around all season.

Joe just plugs what ever that day and rolls with it.

But in general Heyward has improved vastly. Almora should be every day now. Schwarber is not dead weight like the 1st half.

Honestly the main difference going on is Bryant and Rizzo were pushing MVP years in 2016 and Russell was feasting on the OBA that caused.

Right now I really believe that it is too chaotic and That causes inconsistency.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not in the mood to have this whole conversation so I'll I'm gonna say is this. I'd much rather the cubs be on a 95 win pace and be playing "inconsistent" than them be playing out of their minds on that same pace. There's a lot of meat on the bone still to improve. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if this team wins over 100 games.

100 is a major reach. Even with Jake in prime form that would take something.

I would prefer to sit back and wait on Yu’s results on Monday before making any suggestions.

To me Yu returning is key. He is high leverage and you really need that when matching up a play off team. After that you really want a high leverage MR arm. Wilson has done better and the hick ups are not a common thing anymore. But we know how Joe is in the play offs. He has his goto guys and will lean heavy on them. Even burning them up. I just see that as a core weakness going into the deadline that Theo will have to address regardless of the team ERA.

outside of that I personally would love to see Almora/Heyward/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras more of every day in the 2nd half. They should be the core going forward.

 

[chibears55]

LMAO ..

To think this all started with just hoping they dont lose to the reds this weekend because of the question mark on who pitching

My how posts get twisted around so fast to a different topic..lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[Diehardfan]

You're not being realistic. This isn't the Bears. The Cubs play 10x more games in a season than the NFL. Quit living and dying by each inning. That isn't how baseball works. You expect hitters to get "consistent". That also isn't how the game works unless you are 2018 Mike Trout. Every hitter has highs and lows in a season. Every hitter has streaks. 1st in Batting Average, but you complain about the players. 1st in ERA, but the pitching sucks. Yes. You are negative no matter how you try to spin it.

He's got a video game mentality....players MUST perform as well they have in the past....every game. There's no room in his world for human error.

 

[beckdawg]

100 is a major reach.

It's really not. Their expected win total is 47-25 which would be on pace for 106 wins. Obviously they are underperforming that by 5 games but that's come with Darvish barely playing and when he did not pitching well, with Rizzo about 25-30% worse than his normal season based on wRC+, with chatwood not being able to stop walking guys....etc. Like I said there's a lot of meat left on the bone for improvement.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'm not in the mood to have this whole conversation so I'll I'm gonna say is this. I'd much rather the cubs be on a 95 win pace and be playing "inconsistent" than them be playing out of their minds on that same pace. There's a lot of meat on the bone still to improve. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if this team wins over 100 games.

Did you really post just one paragraph?

 

[beckdawg]

Did you really post just one paragraph?

I had more written out but was like.... yeah I don't feel like going this deep lol.

 

[Diehardfan]

Dude, I'm just not sure where all the negativity comes from. I read your post and I'd swear we're looking at a fringy contender, not one of the top teams in the NL. As far as Schwarber goes yes his BA has dropped and his K's are back up but those are directly proportional to each other and his BABIP for the last month is like .219. Also if watch him bat he's not striking out because he's hacking away, he's swinging at strikes. Some of those swings are going to start making contact. I'm guessing that in the end he'll be around .260/.380/.500 as it stands right now, after a mini slump and a an out of whack BABIP he's slashing .239/.368/.488 and a 126 wRC+. You realize that's a .856 OPS right? I look at the numbers and see a 95-99 win team. You see, I don't even know what, a team that could be challenged by the Milwaukee fucking Brewers for the division? I'm thinking you could even still be worried about the dreadful Cardinals. Come out into the sunshine, it's nice out here.

Ok, let's see what we got so far. Bryant in the worse slump of his career, Hendricks is struggling, the two high priced FA signed with one being DL'd and the other is borderline useless, very slow start from Rizzo and Russell, Contreras while looking great catching has had a power blowout, Happ has been a disappointment, Edwards is DL'd, Morrow is DL'd and Schwarber has blown hot & cold. Now if in March, someone would've guaranteed all this would happen in the first 70 games....I wonder what most of us would've predicted the Cubs record would be.

42-30 not looking so bad now, is it?

 

[chibears55]

I'm not in the mood to have this whole conversation so I'll I'm gonna say is this. I'd much rather the cubs be on a 95 win pace and be playing "inconsistent" than them be playing out of their minds on that same pace. There's a lot of meat on the bone still to improve. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if this team wins over 100 games.

That all im looking for is improvement and that improvement comes with being more consistent...

Im not downplaying 42-30 record, that great..

But when you point out their 1st in NL in hitting and pitching etc., youd think they would have 50 wins and dominating, being the top team statistics leaders in league ..
Not 12 games over

Take away the 12-3 stretch from end of may to first week of june, they basically been a .500 team through the first 72 games.
That because theyve been an up and down inconsistent team..
Now they have followed up that 12-3 stretch with a current 5-6 mark ..


9-11
12-3 best stretch of season
5-6 current run
Over the last 46 games

So i dont know how anyone can sit on here and not have some question and concern about this team and what might happen with this team in the 2nd half..
It not a game to game, inning for inning thing..
Im looking at the whole year to date and outside of one 15 game stretch, it hasn't been good guys...

I mean, i know you all think im off my rockers with some of my post and rightfully so some times, but come on..
I do make a valid point here

Anyways ill just leave it at that and we just have to wait and see....

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[Omeletpants]

Hmmmmmmmm........lot of whiners in this thread. Be chill, like me. In fact, they call me cool breeze

 

[beckdawg]

That all im looking for is improvement and that improvement comes with being more consistent...

I don't think that's a reasonable expectation though for basically any team. You sort of have to look at this from a probability stand point. League average for non pitchers is .249. League average in terms of OBP is .322. That means on average 1 hitter per inning is getting on base. To compound matters, the low league batting average means it's hard to drive in runs. Walks are great but it's hard to score on walks. I mean we've effectively seen why the past year or so with the cubs. The cubs as a team are better about this at a .268 batting average for non pitchers. As mentioned that's the best in baseball. But even then it's hard to manufacture runs.

One area in particular the cubs really don't have as compared to say an 80's team is they don't run.... like at all. Bryant and a couple of other guys are good base runners but Baez is the only one with more than 4 SB at 13. And the problem with Baez is his OBP is only .307. So, you're ending up with a lot of guys who aren't really able to advance themselves and you gotta have a hit to move them around. That's not just a cubs problem. That's an MLB problem.

Only real way to counter that is finding high average hitters. You're always going to have trouble to some extent with NL clubs because of the pitcher. But as things stand right now with the cubs, they have issues in various spots. Rizzo needs to hit better than .244 and we know he can. Happ and Schwarber are also a bit of an issue at .239 and .222. When you toss in the pitcher with where those guys likely hit in a given day you're often running into some what easy outs right now. That's where you lose the consistency.

I think the cubs are ahead of the game here honestly because they look to be building a team more like an 80's team though minus the speed perhaps. With that being said a number of their more interesting recent draft picks/IFA's are guys with speed. I mean athletic CF type who can hit for average is basically all they drafted this past draft. They were also some what loosely connected to Lorenzo Cain this offseason. He's one of the better base stealers in the league.

 

[chibears55]

I don't think that's a reasonable expectation though for basically any team. You sort of have to look at this from a probability stand point. League average for non pitchers is .249. League average in terms of OBP is .322. That means on average 1 hitter per inning is getting on base. To compound matters, the low league batting average means it's hard to drive in runs. Walks are great but it's hard to score on walks. I mean we've effectively seen why the past year or so with the cubs. The cubs as a team are better about this at a .268 batting average for non pitchers. As mentioned that's the best in baseball. But even then it's hard to manufacture runs.

One area in particular the cubs really don't have as compared to say an 80's team is they don't run.... like at all. Bryant and a couple of other guys are good base runners but Baez is the only one with more than 4 SB at 13. And the problem with Baez is his OBP is only .307. So, you're ending up with a lot of guys who aren't really able to advance themselves and you gotta have a hit to move them around. That's not just a cubs problem. That's an MLB problem.

Only real way to counter that is finding high average hitters. You're always going to have trouble to some extent with NL clubs because of the pitcher. But as things stand right now with the cubs, they have issues in various spots. Rizzo needs to hit better than .244 and we know he can. Happ and Schwarber are also a bit of an issue at .239 and .222. When you toss in the pitcher with where those guys likely hit in a given day you're often running into some what easy outs right now. That's where you lose the consistency.

I think the cubs are ahead of the game here honestly because they look to be building a team more like an 80's team though minus the speed perhaps. With that being said a number of their more interesting recent draft picks/IFA's are guys with speed. I mean athletic CF type who can hit for average is basically all they drafted this past draft. They were also some what loosely connected to Lorenzo Cain this offseason. He's one of the better base stealers in the league.

I get what youre saying...

Looking ahead to next year, i do believe we will see a couple new players in starting roles..

Im not gonna predict who i think will be moved but i will say i think only Bryant and Rizzo are 100% safe with Contreras close to it ..

I just think Theo/Jed going to try and even out the OB guys, Avg guys and power guys..

I think right now their mostly power type guys with a sprinkle of OB...


I just think were gonna see some trade activity this offseason with one or two surprises...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

LMAO ..

To think this all started with just hoping they dont lose to the reds this weekend because of the question mark on who pitching

My how posts get twisted around so fast to a different topic..lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Maddon led on that it will be Zast. He said certain guys have certain skills and chose to retain Zast over Hancock. Then talked about the open date also. So it is leaning Zast for sure.

 

[chibears55]

Maddon led on that it will be Zast. He said certain guys have certain skills and chose to retain Zast over Hancock. Then talked about the open date also. So it is leaning Zast for sure.

Ok..
I just saw it still could be Farrell if he not used tonight..

But

Either way , probably only get 4 innings top from either guy

Bullpen will be in full force tomorrow, which isnt good if Chatwood pitches on Sunday and has a typical 2018 walkfest and can only go 4-5 innings..

Oh and Quintana already over 40 pitches through 2 innings...lol

Bullpen parade may start tonight

Their really gonna need the bats to click this weekend

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[chibears55]

Lol Quintana...

He cant hit, cant bunt

Just keep the bat on shoulder with runner on first then

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[CSF77]

I get what youre saying...

Looking ahead to next year, i do believe we will see a couple new players in starting roles..

Im not gonna predict who i think will be moved but i will say i think only Bryant and Rizzo are 100% safe with Contreras close to it ..

I just think Theo/Jed going to try and even out the OB guys, Avg guys and power guys..

I think right now their mostly power type guys with a sprinkle of OB...


I just think were gonna see some trade activity this offseason with one or two surprises...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Bryant: 260 AB .285 BA
Baez: 256 AB .266 BA
Rizzo: 238 AB .244 BA
Contreras: 233 AB .262 BA
Russell 216 AB .278 BA
Almora 211 AB .322 BA
Schwarber 209 AB .239 BA
Heyward 198 AB .283 BA
Zobrist 186 AB .280 BA
Happ 176 AB .222 BA
LaStella 87 AB .299 BA

Jason lost 10 games due to his concussion. About 40 AB's.
Schwarber is basically a platoon player.
Almora is 50 AB's behind Bryant. He is pretty much a starter now and his BA justifies it.

They could demote Happ and be fine IMO. Let him get full time AB's at Iowa. Let Zobrist and LaStella get his AB's.

Happ is 1 of 3 right now.
HR (9 of 39 hits is a HR)
BB 31 which is crazy.
SO: 82

Looking at his PA's he is at 208
39.4% of the time he is going to walk back to the bench.
14.9% walk to 1st
18.8% Hit of some form
26.9% in play out.

Honestly his contact rate is too low. 45.7%

 

[CSF77]

Damn Javy