IST: Cubs vs Tigers

[chibears55]

Damn.. that ball must look like a giant beach ball to these hitters
Their hitting everything hard for 2 games off everyone. .

 

[Diehardfan]

How bout for the ninth they bring out a batting T and set on home plate....

 

[Diehardfan]

Back to back games with 19 hits....

 

[ijustposthere]

Another strawman. Not shocking.

No, it's cool man. You only want to know about the 8 board members that post in this forum. I get it. That's fine. You finished now?

 

[TL1961]

The Detroit left fielder has absolutely NO idea where the ball is going.

He was completely turned around on Herrera's ball to his right, and he had no idea what to do on the ball to his left - an easy fly ball.

 

[chibears55]

It only took 8 innings but they got the 7 back Lester gave up in 2+ innings. ..

 

[CRM 114]

My lord.

 

[beckdawg]

Fowler having another great night. He's .296/.446/.519 since the start of the 2nd half plus whatever he finishes tonight. The first 4 hitters for the cubs have been pretty good. Russell is hitting .284/.327/.422 in the 2nd half. Not bad for a 21 year old. Soler is .280/.347/.374 in the 2nd half. This team is going to be a pretty good hitting team next year I think.

 

[Doubledown]

Fowler having another great night. He's .296/.446/.519 since the start of the 2nd half plus whatever he finishes tonight. The first 4 hitters for the cubs have been pretty good. Russell is hitting .284/.327/.422 in the 2nd half. Not bad for a 21 year old. Soler is .280/.347/.374 in the 2nd half. This team is going to be a pretty good hitting team next year I think.

how much would Fowler cost?

 

[beckdawg]

how much would Fowler cost?

Well QO is like $15-17 mil likely but he might get an actual contract from the cubs. I'm guessing it would be worth more than 4 years $40 mil. ESPN had an article suggesting they thought he'd get close to ellsbury money but i'm not so sure about that. I'd say 4 years $60 mil is plausible.

 

[chibears55]

Well QO is like $15-17 mil likely but he might get an actual contract from the cubs. I'm guessing it would be worth more than 4 years $40 mil. ESPN had an article suggesting they thought he'd get close to ellsbury money but i'm not so sure about that. I'd say 4 years $60 mil is plausible.

I think Cubs would only offer him up a 1 year deal, 2 the most.

Not sure if they want to tie up the OF

 

[beckdawg]

I think Cubs would only offer him up a 1 year deal, 2 the most.

Not sure if they want to tie up the OF

Maybe. I'm just going off what Angel Pagan got couple of years ago. He was worth 4 years $40 mil and I think Fowler has more of a solid history so I think that's what he'd be worth on the open market and given there's like nothing in FA for CF someone will probably offer him that. Also, I'd imagine the cubs would probably want him more at a 3 year range because you can't assume Almora will be ready next year. 2017 is probably the earliest he'd be ready to break camp and that's if AAA goes well. As for 2017, you probably don't want to count on a rookie to start with the team anyways and would likely prefer to work him in slowly rather than forcing him into the line up. Almora's not Bryant/Schwarber/Russell. He's a decent prospect but unlikely to be an amazing one.

So, 3 years covers you a bit and may be a bit too long but better to long than too short. On the other hand, if I'm Fowler I think it'd be hard to convince him to go that short. 4 years just feels about right for both sides.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think Cubs would only offer him up a 1 year deal, 2 the most.

Not sure if they want to tie up the OF

They don't have anybody ready for CF so they might have to sign Fowler, Span or Parra, the three FA CF available. Span is likely going to get seriously paid so you would think he's out leaving Parra and Fowler. The trick is that they can't overpay because whoever they sign is likely to be traded when Almora or possibly Happ is ready. There might be a guy with one or two years left on a deal that they could trade for as well but I don't know who that might be. If they could get Fowler at the 4/$40 that might be their best option outside of him accepting the QO which won't happen. I wouldn't think he'd even sniff at a one or two year deal.

 

[Boobaby1]

They don't have anybody ready for CF so they might have to sign Fowler, Span or Parra, the three FA CF available. Span is likely going to get seriously paid so you would think he's out leaving Parra and Fowler. The trick is that they can't overpay because whoever they sign is likely to be traded when Almora or possibly Happ is ready. There might be a guy with one or two years left on a deal that they could trade for as well but I don't know who that might be. If they could get Fowler at the 4/$40 that might be their best option outside of him accepting the QO which won't happen. I wouldn't think he'd even sniff at a one or two year deal.

I think Fowler might have cemented himself for a good contract because he now has his OBP up where they like it to be. He is 29, so that is a plus.

Right field is still a concern to me. Soler has got to start doing something. He is a weak point in the line-up that is not coming through for as high as he is in the order.

You already know my liking for Heyward and his defense. If not that, besides a TOR, they need to find another bat because to me, the Cubs are a big bat away from being a scary team.

I really look for the Cubs to pull off a big trade this year. I think Theo knows he has some good stuff in the farm not only to trade, but also that could be players in a couple of years for the Cubs, and also knows what they are lacking on the parent club.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think Fowler might have cemented himself for a good contract because he now has his OBP up where they like it to be. He is 29, so that is a plus.

Right field is still a concern to me. Soler has got to start doing something. He is a weak point in the line-up that is not coming through for as high as he is in the order.

You already know my liking for Heyward and his defense. If not that, besides a TOR, they need to find another bat because to me, the Cubs are a big bat away from being a scary team.

I really look for the Cubs to pull off a big trade this year. I think Theo knows he has some good stuff in the farm not only to trade, but also that could be players in a couple of years for the Cubs, and also knows what they are lacking on the parent club.

Fowler is a .363 career OPB, this year he's .348 but still climbing. Parra is a .330 career OPB but gives you more in the SLG category. I think these are the two guys they're going to look at and, all things being equal, I think they'll keep Fowler. Again there might be a guy they like out there they could trade for and someone mentioned Jackie Bradley Jr. in another thread. Probably not far fetched that they would like him since Theo drafted him and it might not be far fetched that he'd be available with Dave Dombrowski taking over in Boston but he'd cost something and I would prefer they trade prospects for young pitching not position players.

 

[beckdawg]

They don't have anybody ready for CF so they might have to sign Fowler, Span or Parra, the three FA CF available. Span is likely going to get seriously paid so you would think he's out leaving Parra and Fowler. The trick is that they can't overpay because whoever they sign is likely to be traded when Almora or possibly Happ is ready. There might be a guy with one or two years left on a deal that they could trade for as well but I don't know who that might be. If they could get Fowler at the 4/$40 that might be their best option outside of him accepting the QO which won't happen. I wouldn't think he'd even sniff at a one or two year deal.

I think you're likely undervaluing him at 4 years $40 mil or I should say undervaluing what FA does. Wins were worth around $7 mil last season in FA. Right now Fowler is at 2.7 fWAR. You could argue based on that alone he's probably worth close to $20 mil a year. Now I scaled that back some with my 4 year $60 mil number because it's not always a 1 to 1 thing with WAR/money but I think $10 mil/year for a pretty decent starting CF is probably way too low given that there's not many options out there. Or put another way, if you set the over/under at $15 mil/year on Fowler I'd take the over in a bet to what he actually gets.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think you're likely undervaluing him at 4 years $40 mil or I should say undervaluing what FA does. Wins were worth around $7 mil last season in FA. Right now Fowler is at 2.7 fWAR. You could argue based on that alone he's probably worth close to $20 mil a year. Now I scaled that back some with my 4 year $60 mil number because it's not always a 1 to 1 thing with WAR/money but I think $10 mil/year for a pretty decent starting CF is probably way too low given that there's not many options out there. Or put another way, if you set the over/under at $15 mil/year on Fowler I'd take the over in a bet to what he actually gets.

Oh you could very well be right. Someone had said 2/$25 mil and I don't think that gets it done. He'll turn 30 in ST and he's going to want some years on that deal, maybe even sacrificing some money to get them. Bottom line is if they're not starting with at least 4/$40 he's not going to sign. There are 3 CF's in FA, Fowler, Parra and Span. For the upside Span is going to get some big dollars. but he's older than the other two. It's going to be interesting how it shakes out.

 

[beckdawg]

Oh you could very well be right. Someone had said 2/$25 mil and I don't think that gets it done. He'll turn 30 in ST and he's going to want some years on that deal, maybe even sacrificing some money to get them. Bottom line is if they're not starting with at least 4/$40 he's not going to sign. There are 3 CF's in FA, Fowler, Parra and Span. For the upside Span is going to get some big dollars. but he's older than the other two. It's going to be interesting how it shakes out.

Honestly, as it pertains to the cubs I don't think the yearly money matters that much. I think they'd be more worried about the years. If you're Fowler at 29 you probably want a 5-6 year deal ideally and clearly the cubs don't want to do that as far as we can envision. But the scary aspect is someone might do that and the cubs would either have to over pay for fewer years or let him walk.

That being said, it is sort of telling that he wasn't claimed on waivers. I'm kind of surprised no one took a shot in the dark on him. I believe if you claim him on waivers you would have still been able to QO him and get a draft pick but I'm not 100% certain on that. If I were an uncompetitive team I might have played that gambit.