IST: Pittsburgh Pirates (35-37) at Chicago Cubs (30-40) (June 20-June 22)

[nwfisch]

Cubs win

 

[chibears55]

Cubs win again... only 3 back of the mighty pirates, not bad for the worse team in baseball

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[Mr. Cub]

CUBS WIN! Wrigley dominance!

 

[theberserkfury]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...ro-erasing-doubts-with-big-bounce-back-season

Nice to see Starlin getting some attention outside of Chicago...

 

[SilenceS]

Everybody thinks they know progression. Castro stays healthy. He is going to push 3000 hits in his career


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[modo]

They're still shitty

 

[nwfisch]

Rizzo: "It's the nicest I've felt about this team since I've been here."

 

[SilenceS]

Rizzo: "It's the nicest I've felt about this team since I've been here."

I respect Rizzo. He has shown some fire on this team. He seems like a leader and at 24 he will be a fan favorite for awhile. As of right now, Rizzo and Castro make this team watchable and even fun at times. Im ready for the future.

 

[TL1961]

Everybody thinks they know progression. Castro stays healthy. He is going to push 3000 hits in his career


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No question about it. 850-900 at age 24, he'd have to lose an arm or leg to not close to 3000. That is getting way ahead of ourselves, of course. And not everyone on the list of "most hits at age 24" got to 3000. But most did.

Let's wait a few years and see where he is. But this many hits at this early an age will lead to a pretty high career number even if he isn't hitting a ton. If he continues to hit well, he'll have a shot at 3000.

Career hit totals have a lot to do with age when you start, health, where you bat in the order, and to some degree just plain luck. Jeter has more than Tony Gwynn, for example.

I just want Castro to get better. And he's certainly off to a good "start" (if you can call a half season a start) this season.

 

[TL1961]

They're still shitty

The offense is shitty. But offense is what we have coming up.

For as bad as they hit, they are 9 games under. I hope they can hold onto the pitching they have and add the hitting. We keep hearing about little depth of pitching prospects, but the pitching at the major league level is pretty good right now. Not great, but good enough to win with a decent offense.

Their run differential is only -6 after 71 games with a shitty offense. They could easily be a .500 team, and that's with many position players who aren't figured into the future.

 

[beckdawg]

Well my Roberto Clemente comparison is looking good. Castro ops is great for a ss. As of right now, he should be the second all star for ss


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Castro's been good this year but slow your roll a bit here man. Let's start with Castro being a multiple time all-star before we go straight to hall of fame players

 

[dabynsky]

ok... what happened ? did we go back in time or am I the only one who is living on Friday the 20th ?

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Yes I screwed up. Thanks zack for fixing it.

 

[beckdawg]

Also, just wanted to add that not everyone who's mentioned criticisms on Castro is a "hater." The entire time I've maintained that he's an above average SS and that we've seen the best Castro has to offer. Maybe people took that the wrong way but what I meant is that he was a 3.1 WAR player in 2011 and 2012. Through 300 PAs this year he's a 1.6 WAR player. He's obviously earning his WAR differently this year with HRs than in 2011/12. But you're still talking around 3.2-3.5 WAR depending on if he gets 600 PAs or 700..etc. So, perhaps he's a bit better than those years but we're still talking a good player not great.

Its quite likely the 29 year old Castro will hit something like .290/.330/.450-500 and will play below average defense. Fundamentally, that's still the same tier of player he was at 21 and is now. That player is neither bad, average or amazing. He's solidly good. I'll throw out another solidly good player in the middle infield for Chicago, Ray Durham. They are different hitters but in terms of solidly in the 2.5-4 WAR range over most of his career he fits. I think Castro ends up with maybe 13 years at about 3 WAR or ~40 career WAR. Rafael Furcal might also be another fair comparison at 33 career WAR starting at age 22 as well as Edgar Renteria at 35.5 career WAR. Renteria is a career .286/.343/.398 hitter who was right about average defensively. Furcal is a career .281/.346/.402 with a similar level of defense to Castro. Also, I think it's fair to comment that both Furcal and Renteria were gone from Miami and Atlanta before they were 28 respectively.

Durham, Furcal and Renteria were good players in their time. All three were top 30 in WAR at SS/2B since 1950. If Castro turns out to be anywhere near that good he should be thankful. And the comment about them being gone before they were 28 isn't to say that the cubs will trade Castro or that they even should. It's to point out what Furcal and Renteria were despite being good players was movable players. Hell Garciaparra who had 4 6+ WAR seasons before he was 29 was a movable player. Omar Vizquel and his 42 career WAR was traded before he was 27. In other words, if it makes sense Castro is definitely someone they could move.

Ultimately, Castro's flaws seem relatively minor but his lack of ability to walk and his defense is the difference in him being solidly good and being a Rollins(or better) level SS. Right now he's 3rd in wRC+ behind Hanley and Tulow yet he's 8th in SS WAR mostly because of his glove. Hanley, despite having a worse glove than Castro, is 6th because walks 6% more than Castro thus making him a better offensive player. If saying that constitutes "hate" I'd like to know what objectivity sounds like.

 

[SilenceS]

Castro's been good this year but slow your roll a bit here man. Let's start with Castro being a multiple time all-star before we go straight to hall of fame players

Not what I was comparing to. In no way am I comparing him to a hall of fame player, what I was comparing was being in the league for 5 years before everything started to click. They both came in the league at 20 and Clemente didnt start to get really going until he was 25. Castro looks like he is getting going at 24. I should have explained that in the post. lol

 

[SilenceS]

Also, just wanted to add that not everyone who's mentioned criticisms on Castro is a "hater." The entire time I've maintained that he's an above average SS and that we've seen the best Castro has to offer. Maybe people took that the wrong way but what I meant is that he was a 3.1 WAR player in 2011 and 2012. Through 300 PAs this year he's a 1.6 WAR player. He's obviously earning his WAR differently this year with HRs than in 2011/12. But you're still talking around 3.2-3.5 WAR depending on if he gets 600 PAs or 700..etc. So, perhaps he's a bit better than those years but we're still talking a good player not great.

Its quite likely the 29 year old Castro will hit something like .290/.330/.450-500 and will play below average defense. Fundamentally, that's still the same tier of player he was at 21 and is now. That player is neither bad, average or amazing. He's solidly good. I'll throw out another solidly good player in the middle infield for Chicago, Ray Durham. They are different hitters but in terms of solidly in the 2.5-4 WAR range over most of his career he fits. I think Castro ends up with maybe 13 years at about 3 WAR or ~40 career WAR. Rafael Furcal might also be another fair comparison at 33 career WAR starting at age 22 as well as Edgar Renteria at 35.5 career WAR. Renteria is a career .286/.343/.398 hitter who was right about average defensively. Furcal is a career .281/.346/.402 with a similar level of defense to Castro. Also, I think it's fair to comment that both Furcal and Renteria were gone from Miami and Atlanta before they were 28 respectively.

Durham, Furcal and Renteria were good players in their time. All three were top 30 in WAR at SS/2B since 1950. If Castro turns out to be anywhere near that good he should be thankful. And the comment about them being gone before they were 28 isn't to say that the cubs will trade Castro or that they even should. It's to point out what Furcal and Renteria were despite being good players was movable players. Hell Garciaparra who had 4 6+ WAR seasons before he was 29 was a movable player. Omar Vizquel and his 42 career WAR was traded before he was 27. In other words, if it makes sense Castro is definitely someone they could move.

Ultimately, Castro's flaws seem relatively minor but his lack of ability to walk and his defense is the difference in him being solidly good and being a Rollins(or better) level SS. Right now he's 3rd in wRC+ behind Hanley and Tulow yet he's 8th in SS WAR mostly because of his glove. Hanley, despite having a worse glove than Castro, is 6th because walks 6% more than Castro thus making him a better offensive player. If saying that constitutes "hate" I'd like to know what objectivity sounds like.

You didnt believe he had any power. Also, you need to look a wOBA more then you are. Also, WAR is extremely flawed. Check out Darwin Barney WAR when he won a gold glove. He had a 4.6 bWAR. He had an OPS+of 72. That doesnt make sense. His defense wasnt worth that. WAR is a stat you use in certain aspects, but in no way should you take that as anything huge. Look at all numbers.

Castro is third in wOBA. 6th in OBP. 2nd in slugging. 3rd in wRC+, 5th in AVG., 3rd in homers, 1st in doubles, 2nd in OPS, and a OPS+of 119. I wouldnt say you are a hater of Castro, but you def. dont talk well about him rarely. You are very big on walks and if a player doesnt walk to your liking then you kind of dismiss them. I dont really care, but lets be real about it. Castro will never walk a ton. Its not who he was and the organization almost ruined him trying to make him into something he was not. He has gone back to being him and he has come back with a fury. He is at a .822 OPS which is by far a career high and is fucking incredible for a SS not name Tulo.

 

[SilenceS]

Castro leads all SS in XB hits now. Also, I looked at Jimmy Rollins stats and he only had a 5 year span of truly great baseball.

 

[chibears55]

its funny that on a team that has very little and people are complaining about how bad they are, some are so willing to trade away one of their best offensive hitter for what ? pitching prospects that most complain about that the cubs are building their team on ( prospects)..

you have a 24 YO who is signed to a very friendly team contract for the next 6 YRs. ( 6,7,9,10,11,and a 16 MIL team opt 1 MIL buy out ), he is a .290-.300 hitter and at 24 has seem to develop power with a career high to date .490 SLG AVG.

no his defense isn't the greatest when you look at total errors made but how many SS have over 3,000 chances in just 5900 innings played on the field ?
so, his .963 FldPct is low but not horrible as if you look and see he ranks 150 out of all the 1000s of SS that played the game over the last 100 years.
yes, he makes a lot of mental/fundamental errors but he also gets to a lot of balls most SS don't..

 

[SilenceS]

its funny that on a team that has very little and people are complaining about how bad they are, some are so willing to trade away one of their best offensive hitter for what ? pitching prospects that most complain about that the cubs are building their team on ( prospects)..

you have a 24 YO who is signed to a very friendly team contract for the next 6 YRs. ( 6,7,9,10,11,and a 16 MIL team opt 1 MIL buy out ), he is a .290-.300 hitter and at 24 has seem to develop power with a career high to date .490 SLG AVG.

no his defense isn't the greatest when you look at total errors made but how many SS have over 3,000 chances in just 5900 innings played on the field ?
so, his .963 FldPct is low but not horrible as if you look and see he ranks 150 out of all the 1000s of SS that played the game over the last 100 years.
yes, he makes a lot of mental/fundamental errors but he also gets to a lot of balls most SS don't..

He is still the third youngest SS in the league. Also, they have a new study on peak power years. Castro still lands in the pre peak power years. He is still most likely going to gain power.

 

[chibears55]

He is still the third youngest SS in the league. Also, they have a new study on peak power years. Castro still lands in the pre peak power years. He is still most likely going to gain power.

I saw the other day that at 24 he is younger then the Major League Avg. rookie age at 24.8 this year..

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[beckdawg]

You didnt believe he had any power. Also, you need to look a wOBA more then you are. Also, WAR is extremely flawed. Check out Darwin Barney WAR when he won a gold glove. He had a 4.6 bWAR. He had an OPS+of 72. That doesnt make sense. His defense wasnt worth that. WAR is a stat you use in certain aspects, but in no way should you take that as anything huge. Look at all numbers.

Castro is third in wOBA. 6th in OBP. 2nd in slugging. 3rd in wRC+, 5th in AVG., 3rd in homers, 1st in doubles, 2nd in OPS, and a OPS+of 119. I wouldnt say you are a hater of Castro, but you def. dont talk well about him rarely. You are very big on walks and if a player doesnt walk to your liking then you kind of dismiss them. I dont really care, but lets be real about it. Castro will never walk a ton. Its not who he was and the organization almost ruined him trying to make him into something he was not. He has gone back to being him and he has come back with a fury. He is at a .822 OPS which is by far a career high and is fucking incredible for a SS not name Tulo.

As for wOBA, i use wRC+ a lot which uses wOBA as a component. I tend not to dive into all metrics when talking about stuff because they frighten people who don't understand them. As for WAR, you're looking at the wrong type of war with regard to Barney. FWar has Barney as a 2.2 WAR player in 2012. BWAR has him at the 4.6 you state. That's why I don't like bWAR and never use it. At 2.2 WAR, I think you can make a fair argument that gold glove defense and a 74 wRC+ player is league average. I mean he hit .254/.299/.354 that year which is bad but not the shit he's thrown up the past 2 years. That's like Schierholtz level last year. Another example of poor usage of bWAR is Shark. His bWAR is 2.2 last year and his fWAR is 2.8. I know you would argue that Shark is much closer to a 3 win player even last year than he was a 2 win player. By in large, I've not found many fWAR's where you can't make a case for the level of player that it says they were. Even someone like Edwin Jackson at 2 wins last year because he threw 175.1 innings of ~5 ERA ball. While that doesn't seem "league average" consider what WAR is trying to represent which is to say value above a 4A player. You need to look no farther than a team with a decimated starting staff to see what 4A pitcher do to a team. Granted a 5 ERA may be in line but the underlying numbers(FIP) suggests closer to a 4 ERA is where he "should" have been similar to the way they say Shark should have been closer to 3.77.

Again, WAR isn't the end all stat but what else quickly encompasses everything a player does in an unbiased manner for discussion? For example, Castro is a very good hitter(3rd best in the league was wRC+ states) at SS. But does that mean you should ignore his defensive impact? Different people are going to put different personal weights on defense. That's just the way it is. But if you totally leave it out of the equation you talk about a player like Ozzie Smith who hit .262/.337/.328 with a wOBA of .305 and a wRC+ of 90. That's hardly a HOF player without the defense and might not even be league average in terms of hitter.

Am I minimizing the good with Castro and exemplifying the bad? Perhaps, but that's just because I'm dealing with people who in my opinion are putting slightly too much weight to the positive side. Go back and look at some of the topics from late last year and you'll see I was doing the opposite because many where too negative on him. Granted I liked Rizzo a hell of a lot more because his path to elite player was more realistic but I did defend Castro nonetheless. As I said, I think Castro is a pretty good player. I mean Edgar Rentria was the starting shortstop on 2 world series teams and was a 5x All-Star and won 3 silver sluggers. I think that's a pretty fair comparison to what Castro can be. Furcal was a starter on one world series team and was a 3x All-Star. Again, maybe slightly low in comparison but it's not outrageous.

And talking about the possibility of trading someone like Castro, the Marlins got back Armando Almanza, Braden Looper and Pablo Ozuna from the Cards in return. So, it clearly didn't work out for them. The Nomar traded worked out better for the Red Sox getting Doug Mientkiewicz, and Orlando Cabrera on their way to the title. The Omar Vizqquel trade was shitty too Felix Fermin, Reggie Jefferson and cash for him. So, I'm not really saying it's a great idea to trade Castro just that it's something that isn't unfathomable for a team to do.

Frankly, if we look at something like the Edgar Rentaria trade to the Cardinals we see what I've long been hoping the cubs do. That sort of trade exemplifies why the cardinals of the 2000's were so successful without throwing money around like some here want. Looper had a career ERA of 4.15 with 5.1 fWAR. Ozuna was a career 75 wRC+ with a - 1.3 fWAR. Almanzza had a career ERA of 4.82 and a -1.2 career fWAR. You might think well Miami was just a moron. Perhaps but Looper was the 3rd overall pick in the 1996 draft. It may seem like a steal now but Looper at the time was as thought of as someone like Aaron Sanchez. Those three players were the cost for the 10.8 fWAR Renteria returned to the Cardinals.