Anatomy of a 'perfect' trade
Breaking down money, X's and O's of possible J.J. Redick deal to Chicago
Updated: February 20, 2013, 1:41 PM ET
By Amin Elhassan | ESPN Insider
There is no better fit this trade deadline than J.J. Redick with the Chicago Bulls, in every facet.
During trade deadline season, we'll see teams make deals that don't necessarily align with organizational objectives, often in a desperate play for a greater reward (winning a championship). I wrote about this phenomenon and called it "the ecstasy of gold" in my column about deals that do and don't work. The idea isn't that contenders should be risk averse, but rather they should strive to make calculated risks in acquiring players that not only fit a basketball need, but also fit the culture, ideals and values of the team.
Let's examine one of the rumors -- J.J. Redick to the Chicago Bulls -- that I felt satisfied these tenets and dissect what comprises a "perfect" trade for a team and determine why this is perfect for Chicago in particular (while still maintaining a sense of reality; no Carlos Boozer for LeBron James angles).
The principal: J.J. Redick
Redick has improved immensely as a player since coming out of Duke in 2006. In college, he was a volume scorer, albeit efficient: his usage percentage his senior season was 28.9 percent (versus the "average" player's share at 20 percent) with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 57.7 and a 63 percent true shooting clip. He excelled coming off screens and the system was geared to getting him shot attempts. Defensively, many would argue that he benefitted more from the "Duke mystique" than any individual tenacity.
After Rose's return, Redick presents a perfect complement, as he provides elite spacing ability, not just by his shooting, but by keeping defenses "hugged up" on him because of his shooting presence.
When he got to the league, Redick initially struggled to adjust from being the focal point of an offensive system designed to get him shots to being a spacer for Dwight Howard, a release valve for defensive pressure, with shot opportunities coming irregularly, though he still managed to be an efficient 3-point shooter, never shooting less than 37.0 percent in his career.
Over time, Redick made the adjustments to his game, becoming a better player off the dribble, particularly in pick-and-roll situations. Defensively, he's improved to be a solid, even underrated, defender; he does a good job of locking and trailing players off screens, and he limits penetration in on-ball situations by sending toward the help defense.
But make no mistake, Redick's bread and butter is shooting the ball, and in the post-Dwight era he's enjoying an offensive freedom (usage percentage: 21.6) that's allowed him to average a career-high 15.6 points per game on 55.6 eFG% (including 39.3 3-point shooting percentage). It's that attribute that makes him an attractive option for the Bulls.
The team: Chicago Bulls
At 31-22, the Bulls have outperformed most expectations without their leader, Derrick Rose. They are a game behind Indiana for the Central Division crown, and a half game behind Brooklyn from a home-court advantage seed in the playoffs. No surprise, their success comes mostly from the defensive end: they are fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency (101.7) and second in eFG% allowed (46.6). On the other hand, they have struggled scoring the ball, with the 10th worst offensive efficiency (103.5) and third worst eFG% (46.8).
Adding Redick would not only bolster their perimeter shooting (Bulls rank 24th in NBA in eFG%), but also would add another playmaking guard to create for others. Looking forward to after Rose's return, Redick presents a perfect complement, as he provides elite spacing ability, not just by his shooting, but by keeping defenses "hugged up" on him because of his shooting presence (something the Bulls have lacked since Kyle Korver was traded to Atlanta). This creates more driving lanes for the attacking Rose. Another crucial point to remember: unlike many other elite shooters, Redick is not a defensive liability, so his skill set is really tailor-made for the Bulls' system as a whole.
The "other" team: Orlando Magic
The Magic are in full-blown rebuild mode, and Redick is an asset with an expiring contract, meaning if they don't capitalize by moving him now, they risk losing him for nothing this summer. As with any rebuilding team, the goal in any deal should always be maintaining financial flexibility and recouping assets in the form of young talent (on rookie scale) and draft picks.
The deal
Chicago trades: Richard Hamilton, Marquis Teague, Vladimir Radmanovic, future first-round pick, cash considerations
Chicago receives: JJ Redick, future second-round pick (top 45 protected)
Hamilton's deal calls for him to make $5 million this season and $5 million next, but just $1 million is guaranteed if he is waived by July 10, 2013. Radmanovic is on the veteran's minimum, so he makes $1.35 million this season but appears as just $854,389 on the cap. Teague is on the first year of a four-year, $5 million rookie scale contract, with team options on the third and fourth years. He's a young prospect with a low, flexible contract who plays a position of need for Orlando (point guard), and is only a year removed from being on national championship team at Kentucky.
Redick's contract status and court abilities are the perfect fit for Chicago.
An unprotected first-round pick would give Orlando a second asset in return for Redick. Chicago would have to throw in some cash to compensate for Hamilton's $1 million 2013-14 guarantee, as well as the uptick in salaries that Orlando would be responsible for this season (paying these players $6.7 million versus $6.2 million for Redick). The second-round pick Chicago receives is protected, so the Bulls wouldn't get it until Orlando is competitive again.
In order to work under the NBA salary-cap rules, the incoming salaries Chicago absorbs cannot be more than 125 percent of the outgoing salaries, plus $100,000, since the Bulls are taxpayers. To make matters more complicated, Chicago is hard capped at $74 million in payroll this season; this means that when a team uses exceptions designated for non-taxpayers, it is not allowed to "game the system" by going over the tax apron (designated as $4 million above the tax threshold) after the fact.
So, despite technically being able to take trade Hamilton straight up for Redick, Chicago is prevented from doing so because that would take the payroll above the tax apron, necessitating the need for including Radmanovic and Teague.
The most pressing concern in this deal is Orlando might deem other offers on the table to be more lucrative than what amounts to Teague and a first-round pick. They might also balk on sending Chicago the protected second-round pick, which isn't a deal-breaker for the Bulls, but provides some measure of insurance against one of their main concerns: the inability to retain Redick past this season.
Recent reports indicate Redick will be seeking a deal worth up to $40 million over four years this summer, and many have speculated that he'll command at least $7-8 million a year. Conservatively assuming Redick would accept $7 million as a starting salary puts Chicago's payroll next season at almost $80 million, which carries with it the new hefty incremental tax penalties. The Bulls have traditionally been a tax-averse team, so that would pretty much necessitate either the trade of Boozer to a team significantly under the cap, or using the amnesty provision on him, options that have been openly discussed before.