Jake lands in Philly

[TL1961]

well, no saying he might not get traded there either. I think alot of these teams bowed out with Boreass and his lofty demands. Now the deal is set and he will cost 45 over two seasons I can see him being moved. But Philly was really tough to play against for the cubs last year, so they are doing this under the radar rebuild and Jake is what they need to put a leader in that clubhouse, and his worth in work ethic is going to pay dividends. Its good that Washington will have a tougher time getting to that home field throughout the playoffs again, but I did not hear about a no trade clause yet so some team loses a starter and the top prospect goes to Philly. They did well being patient.

There is zero chance Philly is trading him. Zero.

 

[TL1961]

Think he was looking at the AAV. Jake was 25 per. Yu 21 mil AAV. Jake got around market value IMO. For 3 years he is pretty much a ace on a lesser team and showed another dimension with his curveball setting up. I personally believe there is something to losing MPH when going to a cutter vs staying behind the ball with a 4 seam grip. Almost believe that he should stick with a high fastball-12/6 curve as a main combo then mix in a change vs lefties. Kinda ditch the slider/cutter combo as it is not a weapon as it was before. Maybe use it situationally but for the most part save the slider as a strike out pitch but go 4 seam/curve early count.

But over all 3 years starting at 30 then 25 then 20 is pretty decent. He has to ability to push 18 wins on a solid team. That team he can run out 15 wins.
numbers wise his stuff is less than it was but he has a knack of winning games. We have seen it here for a while. I just see him getting smarter as his stuff lessens and gets hitters to get them selves out.

My point is that we are paying an average of 21, but that includes the last three years. Jake's average is 25 for presumably the best three of the six years. Darvish got a better deal for himself due to total value. Cubs did fine in terms of total cost. I have no complaints. But I don't see Jake's deal making Darvish's look like a steal. If they both decline over the next three years, as expected (not fall apart, but decline), then we are still obligated, and Philly is not.

 

[TL1961]

Classy letter from Jake Arrieta. Love this guy!

 

[anotheridiot]

If he pitches well in Philly it wouldn't be out of the question for him to get another 3/60 type deal.

if he stays in philly and hits incentives the deal is already worth 125-135. So opting out after year 2 he loses money.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

if he stays in philly and hits incentives the deal is already worth 125-135. So opting out after year 2 he loses money.

Not really. Those last two years are basically options with some creative language. If Jake were to have two great years this year and next both he hand the Phillies would have a choice. For the Phillies they could void the opt out but years 4 and 5 would become fully guaranteed, for Arrieta he could seek a three year guaranteed deal if the opt out is not voided, because those last 2 years would not be guaranteed. So if someone offered him a straight up 3/$60 mil he'd be ahead of the Philly deal.

 

[CSF77]

My point is that we are paying an average of 21, but that includes the last three years. Jake's average is 25 for presumably the best three of the six years. Darvish got a better deal for himself due to total value. Cubs did fine in terms of total cost. I have no complaints. But I don't see Jake's deal making Darvish's look like a steal. If they both decline over the next three years, as expected (not fall apart, but decline), then we are still obligated, and Philly is not.

Yu was on the up tick. Add to it Yu most likely stays a 3 WAR pitcher over the contract. 3 WAR equals his AAV of that deal. If he pushed 4-5 WAR early and 2-3 later in the deal you are still getting the value because it is over the whole deal vs a year by year.

6 years/$126M (2018-23) If 1 WAR equals 8 mil. He has to put up 15.75 WAR over the deal for it to equal out.

Looking atr Lester: 6 years/$155M (2015-20), plus 2021 option He needs 19.375 WAR over his deal. Inb 3 years he has put up 12.1 of it.

Any deal is about value and the current value is 8 mil per WAR

 

[Mr. Cub]

I'll miss Jake. Wish he woulda stayed with us, but whatever. He was pretty much the best pitcher we've had since Zambrano.

 

[anotheridiot]

Not really. Those last two years are basically options with some creative language. If Jake were to have two great years this year and next both he hand the Phillies would have a choice. For the Phillies they could void the opt out but years 4 and 5 would become fully guaranteed, for Arrieta he could seek a three year guaranteed deal if the opt out is not voided, because those last 2 years would not be guaranteed. So if someone offered him a straight up 3/$60 mil he'd be ahead of the Philly deal.

He will make 55 over the first two years, opt out and sign a 3/60 to total 115 million, and that is ahead of a philly deal where he can make 125-135?

You just need to figure that Jake has pretty much out performed Lester while Lester gets the 150 million deal with that 30 million signing bonus he got. When he got insulted with the 115 million deal he was gone.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

He will make 55 over the first two years, opt out and sign a 3/60 to total 115 million, and that is ahead of a philly deal where he can make 125-135?

You just need to figure that Jake has pretty much out performed Lester while Lester gets the 150 million deal with that 30 million signing bonus he got. When he got insulted with the 115 million deal he was gone.

Yes, a 3/$60 mil guaranteed deal would be more money. In order to make that extra money he has to hit a ton of incentives including a Cy Young award in one of the years. Maybe he doesn't opt out, maybe he does. I was just saying it's not that cut and dried plus years 4 and 5 are team options unless they void the opt out.

 

[jooo83]

I wonder is there any truth to the rumor the cubs offered Jake 4 years 110 million in January 2017.

 

[TL1961]

Meanwhile, Jake is still frustrating the Pirates.

Pitt has been scoring a ton this season, but thru 5 Jake is shutting them out on one hit. Phils up 6-0.

 

[TL1961]

Update: Jake the Wonder Dog goes 7 shutout innings. 1 hit.

 

[Diehardfan]

Watched part of that game (thank you, T-Mobile) just to see how Jake looked. Well, he was was hitting 94 on the gun with very good command when I looked in. Just checked the box score and he went 7 needing 97 pitches. He was impressive.

 

[TL1961]

Rosen-**** weighed in immediately. Wrote a column how Cubs are losing the Jake-Yu swap. Jake had one good outing, and he writes ghat. Darvish had a dominant outing, and he stayed silent. He is such an ass.

 

[CSF77]

Glad I don’t catch local crap and can just enjoy my team and talk about it with like minded

 

[Raskolnikov]

Yu was not on the uptick. I am now seeing articles on him about "warning signs," and I'm laughing because the Rangers were dealing with this and discussing "warning signs" before the Dodgers were also.

Choosing him over Arrieta was inexplicably stupid and I'm glad because I get to hate the Cubs a little more. Sometimes its hard to hate the Cubs because the Sox don't even try and the Cubs have had some admirable "baseball" guys over the years.

How do you hate Grace(I'm a lefty), Bryant, Rizzo, Zambrano, a player like Derick Lee (if you don't know about his choking a female police officer and philandering anyway), Pinella, Schwarbaby...Kerry Wood.

We got the big hurt, Fisk, and I loved Joe Crede. Pods. But when you have to hate your own ownership and front office its hard too.

I'm just saying there have been some interesting players who exemplified the game win or lose. I'm glad this one blew up on you because Arrieta was my favorite Cub due to his work ethic and compete level. Literally the dumbest guy on the team not to pay, sets a terrible example and tells your players they mean nothing to you...they are just a series of numbers and advanced algorhthms' and no matter how hard you work at it, win a cy young, a championship, and be the first guy in the building it don't matter.

**** you Epstein. I'd like to hit that jaw just one time to let him know what a piece of shit he was on this one, but I guess he can figure it out as the team dies under Darvish's contract.

 

[CSF77]

Yu was not on the uptick. I am now seeing articles on him about "warning signs," and I'm laughing because the Rangers were dealing with this and discussing "warning signs" before the Dodgers were also.

Choosing him over Arrieta was inexplicably stupid and I'm glad because I get to hate the Cubs a little more. Sometimes its hard to hate the Cubs because the Sox don't even try and the Cubs have had some admirable "baseball" guys over the years.

How do you hate Grace(I'm a lefty), Bryant, Rizzo, Zambrano, a player like Derick Lee (if you don't know about his choking a female police officer and philandering anyway), Pinella, Schwarbaby...Kerry Wood.

We got the big hurt, Fisk, and I loved Joe Crede. Pods. But when you have to hate your own ownership and front office its hard too.

I'm just saying there have been some interesting players who exemplified the game win or lose. I'm glad this one blew up on you because Arrieta was my favorite Cub due to his work ethic and compete level. Literally the dumbest guy on the team not to pay, sets a terrible example and tells your players they mean nothing to you...they are just a series of numbers and advanced algorhthms' and no matter how hard you work at it, win a cy young, a championship, and be the first guy in the building it don't matter.

**** you Epstein. I'd like to hit that jaw just one time to let him know what a piece of shit he was on this one, but I guess he can figure it out as the team dies under Darvish's contract.

Trolls be out tonight. Grab yer guns Wilber.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Trolls be out tonight. Grab yer guns Wilber.

And then they act all "Why did you put me on Ignore? How dare you! SIT AND ACCEPT THE SHIT I AM POURING ON YOU!"

Sorry -- I know how the internet works, and I know how trolls work. The best way to deal with them is ignoring them, just like the best way to stop someone throwing tantrums is to ignore them. They want attention. Don't give it to them, and they'll stop demanding it from you.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Touchy cuz its true. I tried to be as nice as I could...but you know how it is.


He pitched great today. There is still the Darvish with amazing defense behind him could be great narrative. I just feel there should be some fear.

 

[fatbeard]

Yu was not on the uptick. I am now seeing articles on him about "warning signs," and I'm laughing because the Rangers were dealing with this and discussing "warning signs" before the Dodgers were also.

Choosing him over Arrieta was inexplicably stupid and I'm glad because I get to hate the Cubs a little more. Sometimes its hard to hate the Cubs because the Sox don't even try and the Cubs have had some admirable "baseball" guys over the years.

How do you hate Grace(I'm a lefty), Bryant, Rizzo, Zambrano, a player like Derick Lee (if you don't know about his choking a female police officer and philandering anyway), Pinella, Schwarbaby...Kerry Wood.

We got the big hurt, Fisk, and I loved Joe Crede. Pods. But when you have to hate your own ownership and front office its hard too.

I'm just saying there have been some interesting players who exemplified the game win or lose. I'm glad this one blew up on you because Arrieta was my favorite Cub due to his work ethic and compete level. Literally the dumbest guy on the team not to pay, sets a terrible example and tells your players they mean nothing to you...they are just a series of numbers and advanced algorhthms' and no matter how hard you work at it, win a cy young, a championship, and be the first guy in the building it don't matter.

**** you Epstein. I'd like to hit that jaw just one time to let him know what a piece of shit he was on this one, but I guess he can figure it out as the team dies under Darvish's contract.

Arrieta's peripherals portend regression. His K% is way down and so is his HR/FB rate. He's winning off a .203 BABIP against, which is hilariously unsustainable (his 2015 BABIP was .246, for reference). His FB velo is down almost another MPH after he lost 2 MPH last year. In short, your take is dumb.