Jake Sets Another Record

[CSF77]

I wouldn't trade him until next offseason and he pushed himself into F/A. I do not see this happening as he has shown that he wants to remain a Cub vs test the waters as shark was squawking at this point.

I believe they will work out a deal when it is said and done.

He is not just a league ace. He is the Cubs ace right now. He put himself into this position as a Cub and I'll bet that the Ricketts will pay to keep him regardless of the price tag.

When you really think about it they have just dumped into Heyward and the year before Lester. Spending on Arrieta is not a reach here. They are showing that they are now in contention mode vs building mode. Trading Jake for potentials is better saved for the next overhaul mode. I do not see that happening until the current core ages or breaks apart via F/A or trade.

 

[DanTown]

You'd be surprised what teams will pay for that last year of control and top arms actually have been moving lately. The Angels, D-Backs, Rangers and Dodgers have all traded top arms, granted not for ace pitchers but they do move. Just as a hypothetical, what if the Cubs pick up Sonny Gray at the deadline and win the World Series. Now you've got your young pitcher under control through 2019 and you know you can't sign Arrieta. There very well might be a team in a go for it year that would trade an arm a year or so away for the certainty of a one year ace. This is just one scenario but I think it's silly to think the Cubs wouldn't at least entertain moving him.

The thing about trading Jake for the Cubs is any deal is 100% to bring back a worse pitcher today and they're too close to competing for a title to do that. This "trade Jake" mantra doesn't make a ton of sense. If Jake is going to get a huge deal that means the Cubs probably get 7ish WAR the next two years. If I'm trying to win a WS, I'm rolling with that.

Also, the Cubs can afford Arrieta's salary with just what Jake/Lackey will make the next two years. They also have Montero and Jackson coming off the books before they have to pay Jake. They also will have the TV money to pay him. I just don't understand this hesitancy with paying Jake if he's worth it.

 

[chibears55]

Re signing Arrieta going to be determined more by the years he looking for then the amount. .

He will be 32 at start of 2018, if he continues to pitch well the next 2 yrs, and looking for top dollars..
I just dont see Epstein going more then 5 yrs at that age and I wouldn't blame him.



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[Diehardfan]

Re signing Arrieta going to be determined more by the years he looking for then the amount. .

He will be 32 at start of 2018, if he continues to pitch well the next 2 yrs, and looking for top dollars..
I just dont see Epstein going more then 5 yrs at that age and I wouldn't blame him.



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Well, yes and no. It will be determined more on how he performs. I mean he was lights out last year but we have to remember that he had never done anything like that before. I think the Cubs want to see what he does as an encore. He sure looks like the real deal but I think the Cubs were smart to buy themselves some time before they open the door to the vault for him.

 

[SilenceS]

Well, yes and no. It will be determined more on how he performs. I mean he was lights out last year but we have to remember that he had never done anything like that before. I think the Cubs want to see what he does as an encore. He sure looks like the real deal but I think the Cubs were smart to buy themselves some time before they open the door to the vault for him.

I don't think the Cubs are worried to much about him regressing. I mean he isn't going to put up that line again, but the year before he was extremely good as well. I think its more is he one of those 3 year aces or a Kershaw, Hernandez, and a couple of others who are aces year in and year out. Look how many big time pitchers got huge deals just to crap out. It isn't the money. Its history that has shown us that top aces don't last long in this league. Verlander being the most notable right now.

 

[Diehardfan]

I don't think the Cubs are worried to much about him regressing. I mean he isn't going to put up that line again, but the year before he was extremely good as well. I think its more is he one of those 3 year aces or a Kershaw, Hernandez, and a couple of others who are aces year in and year out. Look how many big time pitchers got huge deals just to crap out. It isn't the money. Its history that has shown us that top aces don't last long in this league. Verlander being the most notable right now.

Am I missing something here? You say the Cubs are NOT worried about him regressing but they are uneasy about paying him a big money contract since other pitchers have not lived up to them....if they didn't live up to the money they were paid, they had to have regressed. No?

 

[SilenceS]

Am I missing something here? You say the Cubs are NOT worried about him regressing but they are uneasy about paying him a big money contract since other pitchers have not lived up to them....if they didn't live up to the money they were paid, they had to have regressed. No?

Im talking about this year. He is still in the 3 year window. 2 years from now not so much.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

I love the position the Cubs are in with Arrieta

Either we have a great value on an ace in his prime for the next 2 years and then he can start his 32 year old season with 200 mill in his pocket for another team. OR he can give the Cubs a discount long term within the next year. It's not a PERFECT situation but it's pretty close to win-win for the Cubs

 

[CSF77]

I would buy out next year then pay him until he is 36. Now if he wants more years then I would front load it so his last years would come down to reasonable numbers for his age.

Something like 25 mil 2017-2021 (125 mil over 5 years) then 3 end of career years at 20/18/15. Comes out to a 178 mil deal. Then they can lay a bonus of 50 mil that is paid over a 10 year period from the signing of the deal. Turns it into a 8/228 mil deal.

Of corse they can put in opt outs at points of the deal.

 

[JosMin]

They don't extend him before this year runs out. I would imagine the Cubs trade him.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The thing about trading Jake for the Cubs is any deal is 100% to bring back a worse pitcher today and they're too close to competing for a title to do that. This "trade Jake" mantra doesn't make a ton of sense. If Jake is going to get a huge deal that means the Cubs probably get 7ish WAR the next two years. If I'm trying to win a WS, I'm rolling with that.

Also, the Cubs can afford Arrieta's salary with just what Jake/Lackey will make the next two years. They also have Montero and Jackson coming off the books before they have to pay Jake. They also will have the TV money to pay him. I just don't understand this hesitancy with paying Jake if he's worth it.

If Gray comes in late this year and helps win a WS and then takes over as the #1 next year WHI Arrieta gets you a young stud arm for coming years why wouldn't they consider that? This is team that wants to win for years and while you can't ever count on building a team to win a WS, the playoffs are too random, you can continue top open smaller, targeted windows within a larger contention window. You need to use your assets as hips when it makes sense. I do think it's less likely if they don't win this year though.

 

[DanTown]

If Gray comes in late this year and helps win a WS and then takes over as the #1 next year WHI Arrieta gets you a young stud arm for coming years why wouldn't they consider that? This is team that wants to win for years and while you can't ever count on building a team to win a WS, the playoffs are too random, you can continue top open smaller, targeted windows within a larger contention window. You need to use your assets as hips when it makes sense. I do think it's less likely if they don't win this year though.

Because Sonny Gray, while talented, hasn't shown he's a top flight SP yet? Jake's WAR the past two years? 5.0 then 7.3. Gray was 3.8 and 3.1.

Again, I get the whole "keep an eye out to the future" but the present is still a thing. And trading Jake makes you worse for today. This isn't complicated as Jake is far ahead of any SP you can trade for in terms of ability and likelyhood to win the WS. Maybe you increase future teams by acquiring an arm like Jake but I don't see why you need to trade Jake and make this team LESS likely to win.