Just For Fun: Opening Night Lineup Projections vs. Wainwright - & Kris Bryant?

[ZAN]

So we are looking at a current lineup of

vs. RHP
1. Coghlan - LF (.282 BA/.343 OBP vs. RHP - career .303 BA leading off an inning)
2. Baez - 2B
3. Castro - SS
4. Rizzo - 1B
5. Montero - C (.272 BA/ .356 OBP vs. RHP - career .281 hitter out of the 5-hole in nearly 1000 at-bats)
6. Soler - RF
7. Alcantara - CF
8. Valbuena - 3B
9. Pitcher

I think that's already a scary lineup. But we still have room to squeeze Kris Bryant in at 3B...how would that shift your lineup? Would you bat Bryant 5 when he comes up and move Montero down to 6th? Montero's splits out of the 5-hole in 2 seasons worth of AB's are about .030 higher than the next best spot in the lineup...but Bryant in the 5th would make for a nightmare to match-up against when it gets into the bullpen & would go:

1. Coghlan - L (w/ potentially Jonny Gomes waiting off the bench if they subbed in a LHP)
2. Baez - R
3. Castro - R
4. Rizzo - L
5. Bryant - R
6. Montero - L (w/ Castillo waiting off bench if they subbed in a LHP)
7. Soler - R
8. Alcantara - S
9. Pitcher

 

[ZAN]

The reason I made this thread coming in is that I was listening to MLB Radio on SiriusXM this AM on the drive to work. The morning jocks seemed to think that the rash of Cubs moves these past two days made it seem like there is really no point in playing the "arbitration game" with Kris Bryant. We see him as a big part of our future with the Cubs and that Jon Lester (and the fans) would hate to see us make all these signings, and then hold Bryant back for what seems like pennies (considering he SHOULD be in the plans to be signed to a LONG deal to be a Cub) only to miss playoffs this year by 3-5 games when a guy like Bryant could be all the difference in the world in terms of run production.

 

[brett05]

The reason I made this thread coming in is that I was listening to MLB Radio on SiriusXM this AM on the drive to work. The morning jocks seemed to think that the rash of Cubs moves these past two days made it seem like there is really no point in playing the "arbitration game" with Kris Bryant. We see him as a big part of our future with the Cubs and that Jon Lester (and the fans) would hate to see us make all these signings, and then hold Bryant back for what seems like pennies (considering he SHOULD be in the plans to be signed to a LONG deal to be a Cub) only to miss playoffs this year by 3-5 games when a guy like Bryant could be all the difference in the world in terms of run production.

What I have been trumpeting for months now.

And I would haave Soler ahead of Montero

 

[JP Hochbaum]

It isn't the arbitration game it is the one more year of control game. Cub fans should want a May call up, I know it sux to wait a month but having Kris Bryant that extra year is vital.

 

[brett05]

It isn't the arbitration game it is the one more year of control game. Cub fans should want a May call up, I know it sux to wait a month but having Kris Bryant that extra year is vital.

Only if he doesn't sign which is highly unlikely even with Boras being his Agent. It's a year, your window is long before you ever get to that year.

 

[ZAN]

That's exactly how I see it too, brett. Even if you lose a year on Bryant...you are starting your win-now window a year sooner. So a year lost is a year gained.

 

[SilenceS]

So we are looking at a current lineup of

vs. RHP
1. Coghlan - LF (.282 BA/.343 OBP vs. RHP - career .303 BA leading off an inning)
2. Baez - 2B
3. Castro - SS
4. Rizzo - 1B
5. Montero - C (.272 BA/ .356 OBP vs. RHP - career .281 hitter out of the 5-hole in nearly 1000 at-bats)
6. Soler - RF
7. Alcantara - CF
8. Valbuena - 3B
9. Pitcher

I think that's already a scary lineup. But we still have room to squeeze Kris Bryant in at 3B...how would that shift your lineup? Would you bat Bryant 5 when he comes up and move Montero down to 6th? Montero's splits out of the 5-hole in 2 seasons worth of AB's are about .030 higher than the next best spot in the lineup...but Bryant in the 5th would make for a nightmare to match-up against when it gets into the bullpen & would go:

1. Coghlan - L (w/ potentially Jonny Gomes waiting off the bench if they subbed in a LHP)
2. Baez - R
3. Castro - R
4. Rizzo - L
5. Bryant - R
6. Montero - L (w/ Castillo waiting off bench if they subbed in a LHP)
7. Soler - R
8. Alcantara - S
9. Pitcher

I would like to see something like this

Coughlan
Castro
Rizzo
Baez
Bryant
Montero
Soler
Alcantara

Baez Bryant and Soler can all be interchangeable. I have Baez 4th because of the power he will bring. I also want to protect him with sluggers in front and back. Also, I can see Castro and Soler being interchangeable. Just think, we still have Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber not to far behind these guys. Also, Albert Almora but I would like to trade him. This lineup is going to get scary.

 

[SilenceS]

That's exactly how I see it too, brett. Even if you lose a year on Bryant...you are starting your win-now window a year sooner. So a year lost is a year gained.

To gain another year of control is the first two weeks of the season. Thats it. The first two weeks.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Looks pretty good to me. My two thoughts: I'd like to see somebody in left other than Coghlan and I'm not sure about Baez batting 2nd. Also I don't see much gain to having Bryant wait until May when he's ready right now. If we stack a lineup with Soler, Kris Bryant, Rizzo, Castro, and Montero -- wow.

St Louis hopefully has enjoyed killing us the past few years. Things will be a little different going forward.

 

[brett05]

What I have been trumpeting for months now.

And I would have Soler ahead of Montero

And in your lineup ZAN, I cry with Baez in the 2 hole. He'll never ever be a #2 guy

 

[fatbeard]

To gain another year of control is the first two weeks of the season. Thats it. The first two weeks.

Circling 5/4 on my calendar now. Cubs like to bring guys up on the road, although that's the first of four @Cardinals, it's better than bringing Bryant up to the Wrigley North zoo in Milwaukee the next series.

Waiting until 5/19 or 5/22 @Padres/@D-Backs would be ideal, but I doubt they'll want to wait that long.

 

[ZAN]

And in your lineup ZAN, I cry with Baez in the 2 hole. He'll never ever be a #2 guy

I agree totally.

I think the honest truth is that that K-rate doesn't belong anywhere. The rhetoric is "protecting him with other sluggers". But that also concedes that he will see more quality pitches to hit at the same time. But I think until Baez proves that he can lay off pitches that are not strikes, pitchers will continue to go up in the zone with the fastball and low and away with the breaking stuff. He won't be seeing strikes no matter where he hits, until he can prove that he only wants to swing at strikes. Could we maybe hide him in the 7 spot? With our core...he should have run producing opportunities with Montero/Soler batting in front of him...and the sting of the swing and miss won't hurt as bad from the 7 hole, because we SHOULD be getting great production from 1-6...

 

[brett05]

I agree totally.

I think the honest truth is that that K-rate doesn't belong anywhere. The rhetoric is "protecting him with other sluggers". But that also concedes that he will see more quality pitches to hit at the same time. But I think until Baez proves that he can lay off pitches that are not strikes, pitchers will continue to go up in the zone with the fastball and low and away with the breaking stuff. He won't be seeing strikes no matter where he hits, until he can prove that he only wants to swing at strikes. Could we maybe hide him in the 7 spot? With our core...he should have run producing opportunities with Montero/Soler batting in front of him...and the sting of the swing and miss won't hurt as bad from the 7 hole, because we SHOULD be getting great production from 1-6...

Let me just throw this out there. If he's going to learn on the job, bat him 8th. He's not going to see a lot of strikes and it should force him to learn to be more selective.

 

[hyatt151]

And in your lineup ZAN, I cry with Baez in the 2 hole. He'll never ever be a #2 guy

Not with that swing! He screams 6 hole to me. I would have no problem with VB in the 2 hole when he's in the line-up.

 

[JZsportsfan]

I'd do something like this, assuming Bryant plays LF

1. Alcantara
2. Castro
3. Rizzo
4. Bryant
5. Soler
6. Montero
7. Valbuena
8. Baez
9. Lester

I think Soler and Montero will be higher than the other guys due to their high OBP. Once Baez starts to get more comfortable then Maddon can adjust accordingly.

 

[hyatt151]

Let me just throw this out there. If he's going to learn on the job, bat him 8th. He's not going to see a lot of strikes and it should force him to learn to be more selective.

Don't like that at all, you need the 8 hole to have a good chance to turn the line-up over, that's not Baez. Plus, it would be a terrible waste of power potential, and possible RBI production. Remember, this kid has had a history of slow starts prior to it kicking in.

 

[brett05]

Don't like that at all, you need the 8 hole to have a good chance to turn the line-up over, that's not Baez. Plus, it would be a terrible waste of power potential, and possible RBI production. Remember, this kid has had a history of slow starts prior to it kicking in.

I'm just keeping him there so he can learn to take pitches. Once he has that he of course raises in the lineup.

 

[fatbeard]

I'm just keeping him there so he can learn to take pitches. Once he has that he of course raises in the lineup.

Your solution to fixing his K rate and helping his development is to bat him in the worst lineup spot there is in terms of protection, one where he is guaranteed to see nothing but junk and hit a bunch of solo HRs? By that logic, why bother developing guys at AA or AAA at all when you can just throw them into the 8-hole until they learn to swim, right?

That's the football equivalent of leaving Mills at RT and just telling him to "block better" until he figures it out himself...

 

[ZAN]

Your solution to fixing his K rate and helping his development is to bat him in the worst lineup spot there is in terms of protection, one where he is guaranteed to see nothing but junk and hit a bunch of solo HRs? By that logic, why bother developing guys at AA or AAA at all when you can just throw them into the 8-hole until they learn to swim, right?

That's the football equivalent of leaving Mills at RT and just telling him to "block better" until he figures it out himself...

I agree with this. My OP had him in the 2 but I'd be alright with him in the 6...assuming Soler or Montero bats behind him at 7. I like Montero in at 5. Good run production spot for him. He's had great success in his career hitting from the 5....it's not an abnormality either....he has a large sample size from the 5. He truly rakes from the 5...everywhere else you see a 30 point drop in his averages...I also made the lineup with the intent of having a lot of L, R, L, R, L to keep the pitchers off balance.

 

[brett05]

Your solution to fixing his K rate and helping his development is to bat him in the worst lineup spot there is in terms of protection, one where he is guaranteed to see nothing but junk and hit a bunch of solo HRs? By that logic, why bother developing guys at AA or AAA at all when you can just throw them into the 8-hole until they learn to swim, right?

That's the football equivalent of leaving Mills at RT and just telling him to "block better" until he figures it out himself...

You get an F on your analogy. Not surprising.

Since the Cubs have chosen the learn on the job route you bat him where he is going to see less strikes in order to get him to stop swinging at them. Once he has that down you move him up. Not that hard of a concept to grasp and really has been done many times in baseball.