Justin Fields - Key Metrics

[remydat]

Yes there is no denying that Dalton did play with shit but I’d argue that Fields at least made the best out what was given to him while Dalton didn’t. I’d like to point out that I was completely for Dalton starting if he actually outplayed Fields but he hasn’t

Well sure, it is clear Fields did more with what he had than Dalton. I wouldn't mind if they went with Fields but I also don't think it is that big of an issue that they decided to go with Dalton.

But we don’t know if he has the brains and anticipation with the Bears offense. Has he shown it in the past, sure. But he has been declining for several years now. I don’t know how much Fields will learn from him

Well luckily we will find out at some point this season. It is what it is now.

 

[remydat]

I don't buy into the whole timing thing. The sample size is way too small. And couple that with a lack of an actual in game strategy renders some of this stuff moot.

Well I wouldn't buy into it just off of preseason. But he has 2 years of college data also showing he had one of the slowest times to throw in college football. So it is more that the small sample thus far in preseason continues a trend seen in 20+ college games.

Like you said, I think it is part of who he is. No point in denying it given the college and preseason data. The only question is whether he can speed things up a tad and/or whether he is good enough where he makes more positive plays waiting than he does negative.

Still extremely high on the kid and think he will be fine but if you are looking for anything that suggests he could struggle then this is it for me.

 

[mbison]

A lot of talk regarding Fields and the other QBs so thought I would focus on a couple of areas that perhaps explains why Nagy is going with Dalton for right now.

1. Time to throw - For all his talent Fields had the longest time to throw in college of the top QB prospects and actually led all players in the preseason in time to throw at 3.50 seconds. This is something to monitor because no good QB has ever had a time to throw that long not even guys like Jackson, Wilson, Allen, or Watson. The highest since PFF has tracked this since 2011 is Wilson in 2012 at 3.35. But the good mobile QBs usually are at 3 seconds. So what this means is that Fields is typically taking about a half second longer than other mobile QBs to read defenses. If you look at the other rookie QBs then Jones is at 2.84, Lance is at 2.74 seconds, Lawrence is at 2.73, Wilson is at 2.61. So he is taking considerably longer than all other rookie QBs to work through progressions. This is preseason and he hasn't played with the 1s as maybe having ARob and Mooney open as his first read lets him get rid of the ball quicker but the point here is, it is something to watch and I have to imagine the coaches would prefer he get down to 3 seconds or so as 3.50 is just historically long.

2. Pressure - Fields was pressured the 6th highest in the preseason at 46.8%. Lawrence was 33%, Lance was 30.2%, Jones was 27.1%, Wilson was 30%. So he has faced way more pressure than the rest. On the bright side, he has led all rookies in passer rating under pressure at 111.6 but not sure that is sustainable over the course of the season if he continues to be pressured half the time. Again, he hasn't played with the 1st string OL but the 1st string OL doesn't look exactly settled. He easily has the worst OL situation of any rookie QB and while the potential for injury has been the focus, the larger problem is the potential for him to pick up bad habits if he loses faith in his OL early.

3. Pressure caused by QB - This is tied to 1 & 2 but PFF also tracks the percentage of pressure the QB is responsible for (taking too long to progress) vs what percentage is on the OL. Again Fields leads the rookie QBs. He was 9th in the preseason in terms of pressure that was deemed to be his fault at 24% with the remaining 76%, the fault of the OL. Lawrence was 14.1%, Jones was 12.5%, while Lance and Wilson was 0%. So not only does Fields have an OL that causes a lot of pressure based on 2 above, he also seems to be responsible for a larger proportion of the pressure against him likely from holding the ball too long as seen in 1 above.

I know Bears fans are giddy and want him in there now but there are differently elements of his game that are concerns at this level. So while I think he can play week 1, I also am not opposed to seeing him get more practice time to improve on his time to throw and allow the OL to settle a bit.

These stats are off based on play calling. Justin Fields is the only QB that didnt it throw a single bubble or wide receiver screen. If he had thrown 5 that would of dropped his average to under 3 seconds

 

[remydat]

These stats are off based on play calling. Justin Fields is the only QB that didnt it throw a single bubble or wide receiver screen. If he had thrown 5 that would of dropped his average to under 3 seconds

Fields had 2 passes behind the LoS. Lawrence had 7, Jones, 5, Wilson 3 and Lance 2. So don't think that really explains it as Lance still had a much lower TTT than Fields. And again the preseason data is consistent with the college data.

 

[vabearsfan15]

Justin passes the eye test. I dont need some off the wall stat to tell me otherwise. Stats can easily be taken out of context and distort reality.

For those who actually have watched Fields this preseason it is apparent that he is the real deal. He has taken multiple broken plays and extended then to find an open player. He has shown a natural feel for the pocket. He will occasionally step up or roll out when needed.

I can't think of even one play where I felt Justin held the ball too long, couldn't read the defense, or wasn't in command.

If anything he was extending plays while patiently waiting for our now cut receivers to get some separation.

Fields is ready. The Bears are not.

 

[TonyDogs]

As far as Fields time to throw, consider that more than half of Jones and Lawrence's throws came off of screen passes... Fields rarely threw any.

Also, Ohio State's receivers often ran option routes at the top of their trees. Fields would often have to wait until the receiver broke before throwing, which obviously means he had to hold the ball longer.

 

[remydat]

As far as Fields time to throw, consider that more than half of Jones and Lawrence's throws came off of screen passes... Fields rarely threw any.

Also, Ohio State's receivers often ran option routes at the top of their trees. Fields would often have to wait until the receiver broke before throwing, which obviously means he had to hold the ball longer.

I posted the screen stats above. No it was not more than half for either and in any event Lance and Fields had the same number of screen passes at 2 and Wilson had 3. They both were much faster than Fields in TTT.

As for option routes, you dont just wait to see what the WR did. The QB and WR are both reading the D and you still throw with anticipation based off the read. So if it is a post or corner route then you throw the corner if the DB has shaded inside or the post if he has shaded outside.

 

[remydat]

Justin passes the eye test. I dont need some off the wall stat to tell me otherwise. Stats can easily be taken out of context and distort reality.

For those who actually have watched Fields this preseason it is apparent that he is the real deal. He has taken multiple broken plays and extended then to find an open player. He has shown a natural feel for the pocket. He will occasionally step up or roll out when needed.

I can't think of even one play where I felt Justin held the ball too long, couldn't read the defense, or wasn't in command.

If anything he was extending plays while patiently waiting for our now cut receivers to get some separation.

Fields is ready. The Bears are not.

It helps to read the whole thread. In post 12, I posted the review threads I did after each preseason game and noted the throws I felt he held it a tad too long.

He obviously passes the eye test but some of you act like he is a perfect prospect with nothing to work on.

 

[Bearly]

I agree to a certain extent. I think game film and practice can only get you so far. In the end run being on the field is what will prepare you the most, especially with coverages. You can definitely learn the concepts watching tape, but it’s a whole different story when your on the field.

Of course and that's why Remy and others would prefer that to only be a few games or as soon as he shows Nagy he needs a more practical application to advance. It's not all or nothing proposition many are making this.

 

[Bearly]

hell you could have used Hicks’ money and not have to rely on Shelly as the nickel

It's pretty wrong to assume all that can get fixed (or even one to a point that it's a better solution than what Hicks gives). When you cut salary, you cut the high paid guys that consistently underperform. The biggest questionable to cut was Fuller.

You would think the question was whether to help the DBs with pressure by keeping Hicks or DBs helping the DL with coverage by keeping Fuller. I prefer their choice since it's more disruptive and affects all aspects of defending an O. You weren't going to lose both players.

 

[remydat]

Of course and that's why Remy and others would prefer that to only be a few games or as soon as he shows Nagy he needs a more practical application to advance. It's not all or nothing proposition many are making this.

This guy gets it!

 

[run and shoot]

Hi there Moneyball.

It doesn't surprise me that an accountant would trust PFF "data" as reference point and ignore nuance.

No vortex for me.

PFF is mostly garbage.

#eyeballsmatter

LOL.... "no vortex for you" . I see what ya did here
You're absolutely correct about PFF "data" ignoring nuance.

 

[run and shoot]

The release and or how long a Qb "holds the ball" is based mostly on the offensive scheme. And offensive scheme
nuance.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Remy, you rely on PFF way too much. I don’t even view what they’re saying about Fields as a negative but damn dude

LOL what? So because he points out a bunch of numbers and you intepret them negatively that means they're worthless? Its obvious the kid relies on his athleticism to save him on time to throw. He can't keep doing this.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Akiem Hicks is one of the only reasons the D-line is worth a shit. Because it sure as fuck isn't Khalil Mack that brings consistency.

 

[PrideisBears]

LOL what? So because he points out a bunch of numbers and you intepret them negatively that means they're worthless? Its obvious the kid relies on his athleticism to save him on time to throw. He can't keep doing this.

Did you even read my quote? I specifically said I didn’t view what they said about Fields as a negative or major criticism. Remy just uses PFF as the end all for everything football related

 

[xer0h0ur]

Breh, this site has been full Special person against anything PFF for years. Its like people can't seem to understand the entire picture is made with all information not just what ones you like.

 

[PrideisBears]

Breh, this site has been full Special person against anything PFF for years. Its like people can't seem to understand the entire picture is made with all information not just what ones you like.

Ok? I’m not against PFF, it’s just not the only thing I use to analyze a game. Stats and numbers lie all the time

 

[Toast88]

I’m not concerned about the time-to-throw metric. He threw deep more often than almost anyone else in college football, and you could tell he was creating extra time to let his receivers’ long routes develop. That’s actually a positive thing, not a negative.

Point being, he didn’t take forever to throw because he’s slow. He did it on purpose to buy more time for his receivers, something that a lot of quarterbacks can’t do.

 

[Toast88]

I’m not concerned about the time-to-throw metric. He threw deep more often than almost anyone else in college football, and you could tell he was creating extra time to let his receivers’ long routes develop. That’s actually a positive thing, not a negative.

Point being, he didn’t take forever to throw because he’s slow. He did it on purpose to buy more time for his receivers, something that a lot of quarterbacks can’t do.

Also, let’s keep in mind that Fields threw past his first read more than any other quarterback in this year’s draft. Being #1 in that stat is naturally going to give you a longer hold time: How Well Did Justin Fields Go Through His Progressions? | The Draft Network