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THE CUBS GO ALL IN ON THE FIRE SALE, SO LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE RETURN
The Cubs go all in on the fire sale, so let's take a look at the return: Keith Law
The Cubs were busy Friday, trading three players who are headed for free agency this winter in Javier Báez (to the Mets), Kris Bryant (to the Giants) and Craig Kimbrel (to the White Sox), acquiring a pair of high-floor, low-ceiling prospects as well as two more guys with some upside.
BAEZ
Báez is one of my favorite players to watch, with his electric bat speed, incredible reflexes, tags that look like magic … but my rational self can’t ignore that he’s played in 150 games since the start of 2020 and has a .271 OBP thanks to just 22 walks, along with 206 strikeouts in that span. He’s become less disciplined since his peak year in 2018, when he finished second in the MVP voting, with a strikeout rate that has gone up each season since then. This seems like an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle — we know Báez can be more productive than he has been this year, and if he pulled a Yoenis Céspedes for the next three months, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Cubs also sent Trevor Williams, who gives the Mets another swingman/depth starter option, in the deal.
The Cubs get the Mets’ first-round pick from 2020, outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who played just six games this year in Low A (going 10-for-24 with 7 walks) before tearing the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and requiring season-ending surgery. Crow-Armstrong is a plus runner and a potential 70 defender in center with great instincts and very good feel to hit, having succeeded as a high school player in Southern California against good competition, although he’s also shown more swing-and-miss than you’d like from a player with this low-power profile. He’s a future leadoff type and in many ways looks like the player Albert Almora was supposed to become, especially because he has the approach at the plate that Almora never developed.
BRYANT
Then Chicago sent Ol’ Blue Eyes Bryant to the Giants, in a trade that had been rumored to happen for weeks. Bryant has bounced back from last year’s disaster season to hit .267/.358/.503, showing power commensurate with his best seasons but not quite the same patience. He can help the Giants at multiple spots, but that .210/.282/.387 line San Francisco has gotten from its left fielders stands out for its sheer ugliness. If Bryant did nothing but stand in left and hit like he has so far this year, he’d make an appreciable difference to the offense.
The Cubs’ return for Bryant was two solid prospects of very different types. Outfielder Alexander Canario has plus bat speed and projects to hit for 25-30 homer power, but he’s had a rough year in Low A as a 21-year-old, hitting .234/.325/.433 with a 28 percent strikeout rate. The power is there, especially when you consider that his home park in San Jose has long dampened home runs, but this is a pitch recognition problem the Cubs will have to work on immediately. He’s played mostly right field this year after working in center before 2020. The power would make him a regular there, as long as he hits enough to get to it.
Right-hander Caleb Kilian was the Giants’ eighth-round pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech, and in 100 2/3 pro innings up through Double A, he has now walked all of 11 guys and struck out 113. He’s always had a good fastball, working at 93-95 as a starter this year, though his slider has become a possible out pitch for him and he has the four-pitch mix to be a starter long-term, including enough changeup to neutralize lefties. I’m also intrigued by any college pitcher who finds some new pitch or other skill in pro ball, since we tend to treat those guys — especially when they’re not high picks — as finished products.
KIMBREL
The Cubs sent Kimbrel to the South Side of Chicago in exchange for the White Sox’s first-rounder from 2019, second baseman Nick Madrigal. Kimbrel’s control abandoned him last year, and now it’s back, although I’d certainly worry it could go away again at any time. His stuff is the same, but he’s just locating it better this year, especially with keeping his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Whenever he pitches for the White Sox, he helps.
Madrigal is … what he is. He’s nearly impossible to strike out and has about as much power as a watch battery. (Speaking of which, timing is everything: A week before Madrigal’s season-ending injury, he was hitting .291/.333/.396, then went 6-for-11 off Detroit pitching with a double and a homer.) He’s a fringy defender at second and an average runner. There is a place for a player like Madrigal, who will probably hit for high-but-empty batting averages for a long time, but this is also his ceiling. If he’s your No. 8 or No. 9 hitter, that’s great. If you’re counting on him to be a core offensive contributor, you’ll want more. For the Cubs, though, this is a great return for a year and two months of a reliever who was awful for two seasons and who is still owed over $7 million between this year’s salary and the buyout on his 2022 option.
RIZZO
The Yankees added their second left-handed bat in two days, first getting Joey Gallo from the Rangers and now acquiring Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs. While the Gallo move makes them substantially better for this year (and addresses a need for next year), the Rizzo acquisition will probably have a smaller impact, as he’s not quite the player he used to be. The Cubs did well, however, adding two high-upside prospects who are further away from the majors, which is a fair return for two months of Rizzo.
Rizzo has been an icon in Chicago, becoming a star there after two trades that sent him from Boston to the Padres (for Adrián González) to the Cubs (for Andrew Cashner). With the Cubs, he reworked his swing to become a consistent hitter against left- and right-handed pitching with both patience and power right up through 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, he’s hit .238/.344/.433, as he’s lost bat speed and struggled against better velocity. He’s a left-handed hitter who could benefit from the short porch in Yankee Stadium, but it’s unlikely that he’s going to get that bat speed back. While he does give the Yankees another left-handed bat and a plus defender at first to help fill a void the Yankees have had there all year, his impact at the plate is likely to be limited.
The Cubs get a pair of faraway prospects with upside back, which is about the best they should have expected for a declining hitter at a position few teams needed and who is headed for free agency. Right-hander Alexander Vizcaíno has two plus pitches in a fastball up to 99 and a grade-70 changeup, working as a starter through 2019 and reaching High A. He was out until the start of July this year with a sore arm, and his return hasn’t gone well so far, with just six innings thrown across six appearances and 10 walks allowed in that span. He has a breaking ball, but it’s slurvy and clearly below average, and for him to be a starter he’ll have to tighten that up — and throw strikes again. The Yankees didn’t release details on his injury, but his control trouble this year makes me wonder if he’s completely recovered from whatever his arm ailment was.
Outfielder Kevin Alcantara debuted in the Gulf Coast League at age 16 back in 2019, and he wasn’t too bad given his age — he hit .260/.289/.358 but struck out only about 20 percent of the time, which is impressive for one of the league’s youngest players. He just returned to the field at the end of June in the same league, playing eight games so far and going 9-for-25 with four walks and seven strikeouts. The stat line doesn’t mean much in such a tiny sample, but it is good to see he’s not getting overmatched. He’s already filled out quite a bit since 2019, although there’s still a lot of room left on his 6-foot-6 frame, and his swing, always short and repeatable, is more under control. He’s a plus runner and projects to stay in center field and end up a 55 defender there, if not better. There’s plenty of variance in his outcomes, given his age and lack of pro experience — he’s up to 203 career PA now — but he has the upside of a 20-homer, high-average regular in center who plays above-average defense.
CHAFIN
The Cubs are sellers for the first time in years, and traded Andrew Chafin to the A’s for outfielder Greg Deichmann and right-hander Daniel Palencia. Palencia is a great story — he signed at age 20 as a free agent in Venezuela, far older than most players are when they sign as international free agents, because his velocity came much later. The A’s had seen him at 16, but he didn’t have enough present stuff to merit signing him; Oakland’s lead scout in Venezuela, Argenis Paez, stayed in contact with the kid and eventually signed him when the projection turned into reality. Palencia has been up to 99 mph in his pro debut this year with the makings of two secondary pitches, so there’s a slight chance he can develop into a starter, and there’s real upside for him as a reliever. Deichmann is 26, and was Oakland’s No. 9 prospect coming into the year; I had him pegged as a power hitter who’d walk and strike out a lot, but to his credit, he’s shown better contact skills (without much power so far) in Triple A. He’s shown the ability to hit for average, and the power is still in there, so I like the odds of him combining it all and becoming at least an everyday corner outfielder, with more offensive upside.
MARISNICK
The Cubs also picked up right-hander Anderson Espinoza in a deal that sent outfielder Jake Marisnick to the Padres to be San Diego’s fourth outfielder. Espinoza has thrown 28 innings in Low A this year, his first time pitching in games since 2016, which was two Tommy John surgeries ago. His arm strength has mostly returned, and he has a solid average or better changeup, but he never had much of a breaking ball before the knife, and if anything, it’s worse now. He’s got to be a reliever given all the lost time and lack of a third pitch but might turn out to be a good one who can approach triple digits with a strong second offering in the change. The Cubs ended up having a strong trade deadline after all, getting a bunch of higher-ceiling guys as well as some probability, including a few players (Madrigal, maybe Kilian) who’ll show up in the majors in 2022, as well as some guys with All-Star upside like Kevin Alcantara (acquired for Anthony Rizzo) and Canario.
The Cubs go all in on the fire sale, so let's take a look at the return: Keith Law
The Cubs were busy Friday, trading three players who are headed for free agency this winter in Javier Báez (to the Mets), Kris Bryant (to the Giants) and Craig Kimbrel (to the White Sox), acquiring a pair of high-floor, low-ceiling prospects as well as two more guys with some upside.
BAEZ
Báez is one of my favorite players to watch, with his electric bat speed, incredible reflexes, tags that look like magic … but my rational self can’t ignore that he’s played in 150 games since the start of 2020 and has a .271 OBP thanks to just 22 walks, along with 206 strikeouts in that span. He’s become less disciplined since his peak year in 2018, when he finished second in the MVP voting, with a strikeout rate that has gone up each season since then. This seems like an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle — we know Báez can be more productive than he has been this year, and if he pulled a Yoenis Céspedes for the next three months, it shouldn’t surprise anyone. The Cubs also sent Trevor Williams, who gives the Mets another swingman/depth starter option, in the deal.
The Cubs get the Mets’ first-round pick from 2020, outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who played just six games this year in Low A (going 10-for-24 with 7 walks) before tearing the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and requiring season-ending surgery. Crow-Armstrong is a plus runner and a potential 70 defender in center with great instincts and very good feel to hit, having succeeded as a high school player in Southern California against good competition, although he’s also shown more swing-and-miss than you’d like from a player with this low-power profile. He’s a future leadoff type and in many ways looks like the player Albert Almora was supposed to become, especially because he has the approach at the plate that Almora never developed.
BRYANT
Then Chicago sent Ol’ Blue Eyes Bryant to the Giants, in a trade that had been rumored to happen for weeks. Bryant has bounced back from last year’s disaster season to hit .267/.358/.503, showing power commensurate with his best seasons but not quite the same patience. He can help the Giants at multiple spots, but that .210/.282/.387 line San Francisco has gotten from its left fielders stands out for its sheer ugliness. If Bryant did nothing but stand in left and hit like he has so far this year, he’d make an appreciable difference to the offense.
The Cubs’ return for Bryant was two solid prospects of very different types. Outfielder Alexander Canario has plus bat speed and projects to hit for 25-30 homer power, but he’s had a rough year in Low A as a 21-year-old, hitting .234/.325/.433 with a 28 percent strikeout rate. The power is there, especially when you consider that his home park in San Jose has long dampened home runs, but this is a pitch recognition problem the Cubs will have to work on immediately. He’s played mostly right field this year after working in center before 2020. The power would make him a regular there, as long as he hits enough to get to it.
Right-hander Caleb Kilian was the Giants’ eighth-round pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech, and in 100 2/3 pro innings up through Double A, he has now walked all of 11 guys and struck out 113. He’s always had a good fastball, working at 93-95 as a starter this year, though his slider has become a possible out pitch for him and he has the four-pitch mix to be a starter long-term, including enough changeup to neutralize lefties. I’m also intrigued by any college pitcher who finds some new pitch or other skill in pro ball, since we tend to treat those guys — especially when they’re not high picks — as finished products.
KIMBREL
The Cubs sent Kimbrel to the South Side of Chicago in exchange for the White Sox’s first-rounder from 2019, second baseman Nick Madrigal. Kimbrel’s control abandoned him last year, and now it’s back, although I’d certainly worry it could go away again at any time. His stuff is the same, but he’s just locating it better this year, especially with keeping his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Whenever he pitches for the White Sox, he helps.
Madrigal is … what he is. He’s nearly impossible to strike out and has about as much power as a watch battery. (Speaking of which, timing is everything: A week before Madrigal’s season-ending injury, he was hitting .291/.333/.396, then went 6-for-11 off Detroit pitching with a double and a homer.) He’s a fringy defender at second and an average runner. There is a place for a player like Madrigal, who will probably hit for high-but-empty batting averages for a long time, but this is also his ceiling. If he’s your No. 8 or No. 9 hitter, that’s great. If you’re counting on him to be a core offensive contributor, you’ll want more. For the Cubs, though, this is a great return for a year and two months of a reliever who was awful for two seasons and who is still owed over $7 million between this year’s salary and the buyout on his 2022 option.
RIZZO
The Yankees added their second left-handed bat in two days, first getting Joey Gallo from the Rangers and now acquiring Anthony Rizzo from the Cubs. While the Gallo move makes them substantially better for this year (and addresses a need for next year), the Rizzo acquisition will probably have a smaller impact, as he’s not quite the player he used to be. The Cubs did well, however, adding two high-upside prospects who are further away from the majors, which is a fair return for two months of Rizzo.
Rizzo has been an icon in Chicago, becoming a star there after two trades that sent him from Boston to the Padres (for Adrián González) to the Cubs (for Andrew Cashner). With the Cubs, he reworked his swing to become a consistent hitter against left- and right-handed pitching with both patience and power right up through 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, he’s hit .238/.344/.433, as he’s lost bat speed and struggled against better velocity. He’s a left-handed hitter who could benefit from the short porch in Yankee Stadium, but it’s unlikely that he’s going to get that bat speed back. While he does give the Yankees another left-handed bat and a plus defender at first to help fill a void the Yankees have had there all year, his impact at the plate is likely to be limited.
The Cubs get a pair of faraway prospects with upside back, which is about the best they should have expected for a declining hitter at a position few teams needed and who is headed for free agency. Right-hander Alexander Vizcaíno has two plus pitches in a fastball up to 99 and a grade-70 changeup, working as a starter through 2019 and reaching High A. He was out until the start of July this year with a sore arm, and his return hasn’t gone well so far, with just six innings thrown across six appearances and 10 walks allowed in that span. He has a breaking ball, but it’s slurvy and clearly below average, and for him to be a starter he’ll have to tighten that up — and throw strikes again. The Yankees didn’t release details on his injury, but his control trouble this year makes me wonder if he’s completely recovered from whatever his arm ailment was.
Outfielder Kevin Alcantara debuted in the Gulf Coast League at age 16 back in 2019, and he wasn’t too bad given his age — he hit .260/.289/.358 but struck out only about 20 percent of the time, which is impressive for one of the league’s youngest players. He just returned to the field at the end of June in the same league, playing eight games so far and going 9-for-25 with four walks and seven strikeouts. The stat line doesn’t mean much in such a tiny sample, but it is good to see he’s not getting overmatched. He’s already filled out quite a bit since 2019, although there’s still a lot of room left on his 6-foot-6 frame, and his swing, always short and repeatable, is more under control. He’s a plus runner and projects to stay in center field and end up a 55 defender there, if not better. There’s plenty of variance in his outcomes, given his age and lack of pro experience — he’s up to 203 career PA now — but he has the upside of a 20-homer, high-average regular in center who plays above-average defense.
CHAFIN
The Cubs are sellers for the first time in years, and traded Andrew Chafin to the A’s for outfielder Greg Deichmann and right-hander Daniel Palencia. Palencia is a great story — he signed at age 20 as a free agent in Venezuela, far older than most players are when they sign as international free agents, because his velocity came much later. The A’s had seen him at 16, but he didn’t have enough present stuff to merit signing him; Oakland’s lead scout in Venezuela, Argenis Paez, stayed in contact with the kid and eventually signed him when the projection turned into reality. Palencia has been up to 99 mph in his pro debut this year with the makings of two secondary pitches, so there’s a slight chance he can develop into a starter, and there’s real upside for him as a reliever. Deichmann is 26, and was Oakland’s No. 9 prospect coming into the year; I had him pegged as a power hitter who’d walk and strike out a lot, but to his credit, he’s shown better contact skills (without much power so far) in Triple A. He’s shown the ability to hit for average, and the power is still in there, so I like the odds of him combining it all and becoming at least an everyday corner outfielder, with more offensive upside.
MARISNICK
The Cubs also picked up right-hander Anderson Espinoza in a deal that sent outfielder Jake Marisnick to the Padres to be San Diego’s fourth outfielder. Espinoza has thrown 28 innings in Low A this year, his first time pitching in games since 2016, which was two Tommy John surgeries ago. His arm strength has mostly returned, and he has a solid average or better changeup, but he never had much of a breaking ball before the knife, and if anything, it’s worse now. He’s got to be a reliever given all the lost time and lack of a third pitch but might turn out to be a good one who can approach triple digits with a strong second offering in the change. The Cubs ended up having a strong trade deadline after all, getting a bunch of higher-ceiling guys as well as some probability, including a few players (Madrigal, maybe Kilian) who’ll show up in the majors in 2022, as well as some guys with All-Star upside like Kevin Alcantara (acquired for Anthony Rizzo) and Canario.
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