Keith Law Says We Might Acquire Greinke

[TC in Mississippi]

last year may have been a fluke for him. His early numbers are looking 2014 again. FiP: 3.94. WHIP: 1.43 4.7 BB/9. He is a #4 at best. Lackey is putting up better numbers right now. He would just be Lackey all over again of the tenure. Sure if that is what you want but he is not Jake.

Again I really don't see the need to short change things. Lackey: $16,000,000, Arrieta: $15,637,500, Montero $14,000,000, Davis, Wade 10,000,000, Jay: 8,000,000, Uehara, Koji 6,000,000, Anderson 3,500,000, Duesing: 2,000,000

That is 75 mil falling off the books. and for some reason we want them to save a few mil? Really?

Could be right on Verlander, I thought he was done years ago but he was dominant from mid 2015 all through last year. He clearly made adjustments. His numbers this year are down but primarily due to two very bad starts. I have no real desire to have him on the team but he is an option. Greinke I don't trust. He always does poorly when he switches teams and that may have to do with his anxiety issues. To throw him on a Cubs team in the middle of a pennant run, not even mentioning the money, doesn't see wise to me. All things being equal I'd want Archer but I'm not sure Tampa is even selling much less selling Archer and I'm also not sure the Cubs have the talent to acquire him without trading a big name. The move that makes the most sense is Darvish as the Cubs are rumored to be making him their top target in FA but he's also going to be the most sought after pitcher if he's made available. There are a lot of moves they can make but to me Greinke isn't a smart one.

 

[CSF77]

Could be right on Verlander, I thought he was done years ago but he was dominant from mid 2015 all through last year. He clearly made adjustments. His numbers this year are down but primarily due to two very bad starts. I have no real desire to have him on the team but he is an option. Greinke I don't trust. He always does poorly when he switches teams and that may have to do with his anxiety issues. To throw him on a Cubs team in the middle of a pennant run, not even mentioning the money, doesn't see wise to me. All things being equal I'd want Archer but I'm not sure Tampa is even selling much less selling Archer and I'm also not sure the Cubs have the talent to acquire him without trading a big name. The move that makes the most sense is Darvish as the Cubs are rumored to be making him their top target in FA but he's also going to be the most sought after pitcher if he's made available. There are a lot of moves they can make but to me Greinke isn't a smart one.

Pitchers tend to have issues in Azl. Lite air and dry humidity lessens breaking pitches. It is no wonder that his numbers dropped. Getting him into a better home park would help. But his best numbers came in Dodger stadium, Miller Park and Kauffman Stadium. All 3 known to favor pitchers.

 

[CSF77]

Also I get the age issue some are having but the brass is not wired that way. That was a concern when they were in a building phase. In a winning window payroll went from 120 to 170 mil in a 2 year span.

What my belief is what they care about is 2017-2021. That is the control window that they have over Lester, Bryant and Russell. So getting a guy in that window is the highest priority.

Jake also fits into that window but he has been barley over replacement player over the past year so it is a bad investment based off of that. A 1 year blip is one thing. This is a trend.

I would want more data on Zach regarding velocity trends. If it has been stable and his park situation improves he should go back to a 16-18 win guy with a mid 2 era. Which is ace on this team.

 

[czman]

Straight up for Arrieta, maybe. I am not sure about locking up 60 million a season in Lester and Greinke for there mid to late 30s. Seems like a bad idea.

 

[brett05]

If it was Arrieta for Grenke. Cubs toss in a few mid tier prospects. Azl gets out of that Albatross signing. Cubs get pay roll relief this year by shifting Jake's deal. Azl get a rotation replacement and out of that deal. Jake goes into FA with no QO issue.

Pretty win win

Mid tier specs ain't landing Zach

 

[CSF77]

Mid tier specs ain't landing Zach

Jake, 2 mid tier and getting out from that contract.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Mid tier specs ain't landing Zach

Maybe not, but I doubt the prospect cost would be huge. If they trade him it will be to get out from that money. That said I'm not in favor of the deal.

 

[brett05]

Jake, 2 mid tier and getting out from that contract.

Jake isn't worth anything. He's bad right now and a FA. Gettingout of the contract, maybe, but others would want him too. His cost is more than 2 mid specs. Could it be a mid spec and a guy like Happ or Eloy? Possibly. If money is being eaten in the $40 million range, the cost will go much higher on the return

 

[CSF77]

Jake isn't worth anything. He's bad right now and a FA. Gettingout of the contract, maybe, but others would want him too. His cost is more than 2 mid specs. Could it be a mid spec and a guy like Happ or Eloy? Possibly. If money is being eaten in the $40 million range, the cost will go much higher on the return

I agree that the prospect cost would increase if Azl had to absorb. My arguement is theCubs are dropping 75 mil this season and adding 30 mil is a minor concern.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Jake isn't worth anything. He's bad right now and a FA. Gettingout of the contract, maybe, but others would want him too. His cost is more than 2 mid specs. Could it be a mid spec and a guy like Happ or Eloy? Possibly. If money is being eaten in the $40 million range, the cost will go much higher on the return

I agree, Arrieta isn't part of the equation at all. The closest recent trade I can compare this to is the Cole Hamels deal with Texas. The principles in that trade were Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Matt Harrison (a fringe reliever now out of baseball). The funny thing in that deal is that the best player the Phillies received in that deal was Jarad Eickhoff who was a throw in. Alfaro is a 50 grade prospect and Williams is a 55 grade. Hamels was younger with a smaller salary.

Given all that I think something Candelario (55 grade), D.J. Wilson (50 grade) and a close to ready relief arm like a Duane Underwood plus a couple of lower level pitching prospects would come close to gettin it done. Of course they might ask for someone like Caratini in place of Wilson which is where it would get dicey to me. I don't make the deal.

 

[CSF77]

I agree, Arrieta isn't part of the equation at all. The closest recent trade I can compare this to is the Cole Hamels deal with Texas. The principles in that trade were Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Matt Harrison (a fringe reliever now out of baseball). The funny thing in that deal is that the best player the Phillies received in that deal was Jarad Eickhoff who was a throw in. Alfaro is a 50 grade prospect and Williams is a 55 grade. Hamels was younger with a smaller salary.

Given all that I think something Candelario (55 grade), D.J. Wilson (50 grade) and a close to ready relief arm like a Duane Underwood plus a couple of lower level pitching prospects would come close to gettin it done. Of course they might ask for someone like Caratini in place of Wilson which is where it would get dicey to me. I don't make the deal.

Candy and Underwood would be interesting. I'm thinking that Zach Hedges would be a better target for Azl. He has stepped up this year. 5-2 2.59 ERA. 7 BB/29 SO in 43 IP. He has been the stablest starter at AA.

 

[czman]

I agree, Arrieta isn't part of the equation at all. The closest recent trade I can compare this to is the Cole Hamels deal with Texas. The principles in that trade were Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Matt Harrison (a fringe reliever now out of baseball). The funny thing in that deal is that the best player the Phillies received in that deal was Jarad Eickhoff who was a throw in. Alfaro is a 50 grade prospect and Williams is a 55 grade. Hamels was younger with a smaller salary.

Given all that I think something Candelario (55 grade), D.J. Wilson (50 grade) and a close to ready relief arm like a Duane Underwood plus a couple of lower level pitching prospects would come close to gettin it done. Of course they might ask for someone like Caratini in place of Wilson which is where it would get dicey to me. I don't make the deal.

Hoes is Cole Hamels at all similar. Hamels was two years younger his contract ends at 35 instead of 37 and Hamels gets paid a third less money. A third more money and two years older with a contract that goes into the late thirties instead of the mid thirties is a very large difference. I don't think Grienke will cost nearly as much as Hamels for those reasons. It only takes one Gm though. If someone is hard up enough, they may overpay. I actually think Grienke is more inline with a Fielder Kinsler trade. Not sure if Arrieta would be enough, but I would not give up anymore. Let someone else regret that bad contract.

 

[CSF77]

Read that Azl pulled out of the Fister chase due to Godley taking off. I'm thinking that there is nothing to back KLaw except hot air and speculation.

 

[chibears55]

Read that Azl pulled out of the Fister chase due to Godley taking off. I'm thinking that there is nothing to back KLaw except hot air and speculation.

Never made sense to begin with..

Why would the Cubs pay that money and prospects for a guy in mid 30s.
But
Hesitated with extending Arrieta last year..

I think the Cubs top 2 guys of interest now are Archer and possibly Darvish..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Never made sense to begin with..

Why would the Cubs pay that money and prospects for a guy in mid 30s.
But
Hesitated with extending Arrieta last year..

I think the Cubs top 2 guys of interest now are Archer and possibly Darvish..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

They didn't extend Arrieta because they don't trust him not because they won't spend money. Greinke is a better pitcher than Arrieta and with the exception of a very short period of time always has been so a trade is plausible even if isn't a move I would make. Yes they would prefer a young cost controlled starter but they've been looking for one for 3 years and nobody is trading those guys and I'm not sure this year will be an exception, although Archer would sure be nice. If they do trade for Darvish you would have to think they'd be interested in signing him and he's going to cost a big contract as well, maybe not the record breaker Boras thought Jake would get, but 6/$160 or so wouldn't surprise me a bit. Pitching is expensive.

 

[CSF77]

If Azl was out of it I could buy this. Their payroll is 93 mil this year so I'm not really seeing this grand need to shed payroll.

What they need is to replenish the worst farm system in the majors. They have made some real bone headed moves recently.