1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kiper's pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
No surprises here. Lawrence is one of my highest-graded quarterbacks ever, and he'll immediately become the face of the Jaguars franchise.
Lawrence's chances of being available here, according to the ESPN NFL Draft Day Predictor: 100%
2. New York Jets
McShay's pick: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
If there was any doubt that the Jets were going with a QB at No. 2 overall, it vanished when they dealt Sam Darnold earlier this month. Wilson has a ton of upside as a guy New York can build around.
Wilson's chances of being available here: 98.5%
3. San Francisco 49ers (via MIA through HOU)
Kiper's pick: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
You should know by now how much I like Fields. He has all the tools to be a superstar, and he'd thrive in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Fields' chances of being available here: 100%
4. Atlanta Falcons
McShay's pick: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
There's of course a decent chance new coach Arthur Smith gets his QB of the future with this pick, but I'm not passing on a multidimensional offensive nightmare like Pitts. He can be used all over the formation and is nearly impossible to cover.
Pitts' chances of being available here: 96.4%
5. Cincinnati Bengals
Kiper's pick: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
I just don't think the Bengals can pass up a franchise left tackle like Sewell, even with Joe Burrow's buddy Ja'Marr Chase still on the board. Burrow can't throw the ball if he's on his back.
Sewell's chances of being available here: 98.0%
6. Miami Dolphins (via PHI)
McShay's pick: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Chase is my No. 1 wide receiver, and Miami absolutely has to get another weapon for Tua Tagovailoa. Suddenly he'd have Chase, Will Fuller V and DeVante Parker. You can win with that trio.
Chase's chances of being available here: 45.0%
Projected trade: New England moves up for a QB
Kiper: We needed a trade for a quarterback -- they happen every year -- so I'm going to make one with myself since I'm the general manager of the odd-numbered teams. This deal sees the Patriots jump eight spots to get their guy, while the Lions add the Patriots' second-round pick (No. 46), plus future selections, maybe even their first-rounder in next year's draft. It's a lot to give up, but Bill Belichick & Co. need a long-term solution at the game's most important position.
7. New England Patriots (via mock trade with DET)
Kiper's pick: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
I have Jones slightly ahead of Trey Lance, and I think he's more ready to play as a rookie, particularly for a team that made several win-now moves this offseason. Plus, Josh McDaniels has already proved that he can game-plan for a pocket passer with tremendous accuracy.
Jones' chances of being available here: 6.8%
8. Carolina Panthers
McShay's pick: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
The Panthers have to protect Sam Darnold for their trade for him to work out. They franchise-tagged Taylor Moton, but Slater can start opposite him at left tackle or slide inside to guard for a year.
Slater's chances of being available here: 99.0%
9. Denver Broncos
Kiper's pick: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Remember: This mock draft is what I would do, and I don't think Drew Lock is the long-term answer in Denver. Lance is only 20, and he'll need some time, but he has a high ceiling.
Lance's chances of being available here: 5.1%
10. Dallas Cowboys
McShay's pick: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Dallas gets first pick of the defensive pool, and I'm reuniting Surtain with his former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs in this CB room. Surtain is a true shutdown corner.
Surtain's chances of being available here: 84.7%
11. New York Giants
Kiper's pick: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Daniel Jones needs more weapons, and now he'll have the Heisman Trophy winner next to free-agent signing Kenny Golladay. This Giants offense could be dangerous in the NFC East.
Smith's chances of being available here: 47.6%
12. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA through SF)
McShay's pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Philly can exhale: The Eagles moved back to No. 12 and still got one of the top four pass-catchers. Waddle is the most dangerous player in the class with the ball in his hands.
Waddle's chances of being available here: 49.9%
13. Los Angeles Chargers
Kiper's pick: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
McShay surprised me by taking Rashawn Slater at No. 8, but I don't think it's out of the question that Darrisaw goes this high. He could be L.A.'s starter at left tackle as a rookie.
Darrisaw's chances of being available here: 93.2%
14. Minnesota Vikings
McShay's pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
There are holes all over the Vikings' line, and Vera-Tucker has versatility -- though his best fit is at guard. He's a strong blocker at the second level, which will help open lanes for Dalvin Cook in the running game.
Vera-Tucker's chances of being available here: 87.4%
15. Detroit Lions (via mock trade with NE)
Kiper's pick: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Detroit trades down to pick up extra assets and still gets an impact defensive player. Parsons is a playmaker who will run down tailbacks and pitch in as a pass-rusher.
Parsons' chances of being available here: 21.2%
16. Arizona Cardinals
McShay's pick: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
Both outside CBs are on one-year deals, and Horn is a tough press corner with wheels. Arizona needs someone who can square up with the elite NFC West receivers now that Patrick Peterson is elsewhere.
Horn's chances of being available here: 28.8%
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Kiper's pick: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
This might be a little high for my top-ranked safety, but the Raiders have been tough to predict with Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock in charge. Moehrig can be the deep safety next to Johnathan Abrams.
Moehrig's chances of being available here: 88.7%
18. Miami Dolphins
McShay's pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
We got the Dolphins a receiver in the top 10, so I'm turning to the defense here and getting them something they haven't had in a while: a versatile linebacker who can cover and fill multiple roles.
Owusu-Koramoah's chances of being available here: 59.8%
19. Washington Football Team
Kiper's pick: Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
Washington has a great front four, but it could upgrade at middle linebacker. Davis has elite tape from the 2020 season, and he has some coverage ability, too.
Davis' chances of being available here: 96.6%
20. Chicago Bears
McShay's pick: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
I'm not seeing any offensive tackles here for Chicago, even if I were to reach a little bit, and the Day 1 quarterbacks are off the board. So with Desmond Trufant on a one-year deal, I like Farley -- probably the top cover corner in the class -- as a running mate to Jaylon Johnson for years to come.
Farley's chances of being available here: 37.6%
21. Indianapolis Colts
Kiper's pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
I can't believe this is the first edge rusher off the board. Phillips has a history of injuries -- he medically retired from football when he was at UCLA -- but there's no denying his pass-rush traits. And that's the Colts' biggest need.
Phillips' chances of being available here: 74.0%
22. Tennessee Titans
McShay's pick: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
I keep going back and forth on Moore and Florida's Kadarius Toney, but I like Moore's explosiveness as a replacement for the Titans' free-agency losses in the receiving game (Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries).
Moore's chances of being available here: 95.6%
23. New York Jets (via SEA)
Kiper's pick: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
I thought about defensive end Kwity Paye here, but Newsome could be the Jets' top corner on Day 1. New coach Robert Saleh will love Newsome's ability to turn and run against even the fastest wideouts.
Newsome's chances of being available here: 53.8%
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
McShay's pick: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Pittsburgh's 3.6 yards per carry ranked last in the NFL in 2020, and it just lost its most productive rusher in James Conner. Mel might not like first-round running backs, but this makes too much sense.
Harris' chances of being available here: 77.3%
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR)
Kiper's pick: Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
I love the fit for Toney in Jacksonville, where new coach Urban Meyer can come up with creative ways to get the ball in his hands. He'll be Trevor Lawrence's best friend.
Toney's chances of being available here: 49.5%
26. Cleveland Browns
McShay's pick: Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
It's a mini slide for Paye, my top-ranked edge rusher, but Cleveland isn't complaining. The Browns still need a high-end pass-rusher opposite Myles Garrett, even after the Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley signings.
Paye's chances of being available here: 5.7%
27. Baltimore Ravens
Kiper's pick: Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
I'm staying consistent here -- I've had Marshall to the Ravens in each of my four mock drafts -- because Lamar Jackson needs an outside threat. Marshall was overshadowed a bit at LSU, but he can run every route.
Marshall's chances of being available here: 84.4%
28. New Orleans Saints
McShay's pick: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
If Jameis Winston and/or Taysom Hill are going to have any sort of success, they need receiver reinforcements. Bateman makes tough catches in the middle of the field and is versatile.
Bateman's chances of being available here: 68.9%
29. Green Bay Packers
Kiper's pick: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State
Since McShay took Bateman, I'll settle for a starting tackle for Green Bay. Jenkins, who played right tackle in college, is extremely physical in the run game.
Jenkins' chances of being available here: 34.1%
30. Buffalo Bills
McShay's pick: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
Collins can cover, shoot gaps in run defense and rush the passer. He'd fit nicely next to Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano at the second level and help shore up Buffalo's middle-of-the-pack pass rush.
Collins' chances of being available here: 44.6%
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Kiper's pick: Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
I'm a big fan of Dickerson, who might go in Round 2 because he tore his ACL in December. If he's healthy, though, he could step in and start at center for the Chiefs, who need more quality linemen.
Dickerson's chances of being available here: 91.6%
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McShay's pick: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan
Mayfield is a drive blocker who can help open lanes for the Bucs' run game. I think he'd serve as a swing tackle early on before eventually earning a starting gig opposite 2020 first-rounder Tristan Wirfs.
Mayfield's chances of being available here: 89.7%
ROUND 2
33. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kiper's pick: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Yes, that's the first three picks on offense for the Jaguars. They were not good on either side of the ball -- there's a reason they had the No. 1 pick. Etienne joins his Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and he'll be a menace in the passing game.
34. New York Jets
McShay's pick: Azeez Ojulari, OLB, Georgia
New York had problems getting to the QB last year, and Ojulari is elite in that area. He'll be a very good situational edge rusher and can help cover underneath.
35. Atlanta Falcons
Kiper's pick: Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
New coach Arthur Smith -- who had Derrick Henry in Tennessee -- adds a physical running back to take the pressure off Matt Ryan. Williams had the highest rate of broken tackles of any FBS running back last season.
36. Miami Dolphins (via HOU)
McShay's pick: Liam Eichenberg, OT/G, Notre Dame
Getting Tua Tagovailoa a receiver (Ja'Marr Chase) was half the battle. How about a clean pocket? I expect GM Chris Grier to invest picks in this offense, and I'm doing the same. Eichenberg is versatile enough to play tackle or guard.
37. Philadelphia Eagles
Kiper's pick: Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
This is a great fit for the Eagles, who need a sideline-to-sideline middle linebacker in new coordinator Jonathan Gannon's defense. Bolton is a tackling machine.
38. Cincinnati Bengals
McShay's pick: Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville
Mel has Penei Sewell coming to protect Joe Burrow, so I now want to get him a receiver. Atwell is lightning quick and would give the offense some burst.
39. Carolina Panthers
Kiper's pick: Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
Ian Thomas, a fourth-round pick in 2018, only has 36 catches over the past two seasons, and so the Panthers need a tight end who can stretch the middle of the field. Long is also a good blocker -- he's a complete player.
40. Denver Broncos
McShay's pick: Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State
Linebacker was the first thing I looked for on my "best available" sheet, but there's just no value there. While Denver brought in Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller (who is on a one-year deal), I still think this cornerback unit needs depth. Samuel can also play the nickel role in the short term.
41. Detroit Lions
Kiper's pick: Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina
Since Detroit's trade down took them out of the running for the top-tier wideouts, let's add Brown to a barren depth chart. He averaged 20 yards per catch in each of the past two seasons.
42. New York Giants
McShay's pick: Ronnie Perkins, OLB/DE, Oklahoma
I love this fit. Perkins is an excellent pass-rusher, which is exactly what the Giants need, and it's good value for him in this range. He had 5.5 sacks and nine QB hurries in only six games last season.
43. San Francisco 49ers
Kiper's pick: Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Campbell had an inconsistent college career, but teams are looking for high-end traits here. The 49ers let both Ahkello Witherspoon and Richard Sherman walk as free agents.
44. Dallas Cowboys
McShay's pick: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Only three teams allowed five-plus yards per carry last year, and Dallas was among them. Barmore would help stop the bleeding in the middle of the defense.
45. Jacksonville Jaguars (via MIN)
Kiper's pick: Richie Grant, S, UCF
This makes four picks so far for the Jaguars, and this is the first on defense. Grant has the versatility to play as a center fielder or down in the box.
46. Detroit Lions (via mock trade with NE
McShay's pick: Joe Tryon, DE, Washington
This pick goes to Detroit via Mel's Lions-Patriots trade in the first round. I liked seeing Romeo Okwara return to the Lions, but I want to see a whole lot more off the edge. Tryon can play both defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker.
47. Los Angeles Chargers
Kiper's pick: Jayson Oweh, DE/OLB, Penn State
Oweh has gotten some buzz as a first-rounder because of his athletic traits, but I wouldn't take a chance on him that high. The Chargers can let him be a situational pass-rusher as a rookie.
48. Las Vegas Raiders
McShay's pick: Kelvin Joseph, CB, Kentucky
Texas' Samuel Cosmi or North Dakota State's Dillon Radunz could play a role in rebuilding the offensive line, but the Raiders allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL last season (4,212). Let's keep building up the secondary.
49.Arizona Cardinals
Kiper's pick: Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson
Rodgers is one of the best slot receivers in this class, and Kyler Murray needs an underneath target who knows how to get open. Christian Kirk is in the final year of his rookie contract.
50. Miami Dolphins
McShay's pick: Samuel Cosmi, OT/G, Texas
With no running backs in this range, it's more protection for Tua Tagovailoa. And like Liam Eichenberg, Cosmi is versatile and can play inside or outside. Let's see if Tagovailoa is truly the guy for Miami.
51. Washington Football Team
Kiper's pick: Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Here's the sixth quarterback in the class. Mills is all over the place on teams' boards, but he makes sense in Washington, which isn't picking high enough to take one of the top five signal-callers. Mills played in only 14 games at Stanford, so there is some risk taking him any higher.
52. Chicago Bears
McShay's pick: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
If Mel hadn't taken Davis Mills at No. 51, I had him penciled in here. I'm not ready to reach for Texas A&M's Kellen Mond or Florida's Kyle Trask just yet, so I'll pivot to giving Andy Dalton another playmaker. Moore has rare speed and burst.
53. Tennessee Titans
Kiper's pick: Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
The Titans parted ways with Adoree' Jackson, Desmond King II and Malcolm Butler and only brought in Janoris Jenkins. If they don't go corner in Round 1, they have to take one here. Stokes had four picks last season.
54. Indianapolis Colts
McShay's pick: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State
Remember when new Colts QB Carson Wentz was under fire every Sunday last season in Philadelphia? It didn't go so well. And left tackle Anthony Castonzo just retired.
55. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kiper's pick: Alex Leatherwood, OT/G, Alabama
I don't think Leatherwood is a top-50 player, but he's a fit for Pittsburgh, which needs both a guard and tackle. If McShay is giving the Steelers a running back in Round 1, I need to get them a player to block.
ROUND 3
83. Chicago Bears
Kiper's pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
I know that McShay gave the Bears Rondale Moore in Round 2, but they need to get Andy Dalton all the help they can. St. Brown had 178 catches over the past three seasons, and he knows how to get open.
Three-round NFL mock draft: Kiper and McShay play GM and alternate picks
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