There will be no better return then KB's breakout season this year. No promising prospect/s is better than what Kris has done and will do again. He had a slump. Lets see what hes got this year. No need to rebuild just yet. The team looks promising if everyone stays healthy.
I tend to agree, but the Cubs are spending a second straight season basically standing pat, making small, let's-hope-for-a-comeback-season acquisitions. When those pan out, you look like a genius. When they don't, you look like an idiot.
People seem to forget that the Cubs didn't win in '16 by being the most powerful offensive force in the history of baseball. They did it with the best runs scored differential seen in an awfully long time. They weren't actually first in the NL in runs scored that year, I don't think. But they were near best in runs allowed.
As I told people that whole year, it was a flashy team at the plate, but they were winning it with their pitching.
The Cubs have a decent offensive and defensive team coming back, but this team without any further changes won't be a whole lot better than league average at either unless some people have career years, I don't believe. A couple of people are going to have to really get themselves in line for comeback player of the year, like Almora and Souza, and people like Schwarber, Heyward, Bryant, Baez and Rizzo are going to have to have among their best years, for the Cubs to be above average in the field and at the plate.
And we still don't have a certain lead-off hitter or second baseman. Yeah, it will be great if Nico can slot right in to both roles, but there's no way to tell yet. We'd have to luck out there, because if it isn't Nico, we don't seem to have league average offense to play 2B.
And then you have the pitching staff. As I've noted, you can get to the playoffs with mediocre pitching and the best offense in the league, but not consistently and not easily. Do the Cubs have a good enough pitching staff to win a majority of the games when they score 6 runs or less?
Lester is aging, losing velocity, and struggling with getting farther than 4 or 5 innings into a game, ever. Quintana has flashes but slots as a #4 with about a 4.5 to 5 ERA. Hendricks is also losing velo, and had a significant stretch where he couldn't find the zone last year, unsure if he can string good outings throughout a season. Chatwood's control is still uncertain if he ends up out there as a starter, and Alzolay is, shall we say, untested. Darvish is an ace if he's good physically; will he be?
That's the starters. The bullpen looks like it will be made up of a larger than usual number of reclamation projects. We didn't acquire anyone who pitched better last year than the people we lost and are replacing. And the bullpen was a big problem last year.
So -- with issues to be resolved at 2B and CF, at lead-off, and with the pitching we have at the moment, is this a competitive ball club? Even if they find offensive consistency, can this pitching staff win an NL Central that has been spending money and amassing players who *did* play better last year than the people they're replacing?
Again, maybe, but only if every toss of the dice comes up boxcars, every clutch situation is met with a clutch play, and the team plays over their head for much if not all of the year.
Back in '16, the team wasn't playing over their heads. That's the difference. That's why I think the Cubs would field a better team if they could trade Bryant, right now, for a player who can play CF and lead off, plus a decent starting pitcher who can be expected to perform at a #3 level. Bote is not a defensive downgrade from Bryant at third, in fact an upgrade, and if he has a decent year, could slot in in the everyday 3B role. So, the club could improve overall by making such a trade.
Can that kind of trade be made? The options are a lot less right now than they were before other third basemen were signed and traded, prior to when Bryant's grievance was settled. Which is why the timing makes no sense, the Cubs weren't allowed to get out there and really make a trade until after Donaldson signed, and Moustakas signed (to play 2B no less), and Rendon signed, etc., etc., etc. The teams that needed third base help to compete NOW have mostly addressed that need, and as I say, it seems the Cubs weren't allowed to really shop Bryant around until his market had been filled up by other players. That's why a lot of people think that there was something fishy about the timing of the grievance resolution, not just me.
-Doug
www.nj.com
