First . Nobody panicking, not even close
Second.. this year SP is not even close to being as steady as 2016 SP
Third.. i think we need to stop comparing this team/season to 2016..
Alot of key players from that team are not on this team
All im saying again is their going to need Quintana and Hendricks to continue pitching like they did their last start and they will need Darvish to come back and be what they brought him in to be..
Brewers i think are legit and unlike the AL, there are a couple teams still in it for the WC..
And yet, the Cubs' 2016 and 2018 records after 87 games are nearly identical. Even though, focusing on SP as you are, in 2018 it would be the equivalent of having managed this feat with Lester or Arrieta having been on the DL for two months in the first half. We didn't have to make it through two months of such a situation with Travis Wood starting in place of our #1 or #2 starter in 2016, like we have accomplished thus far this year.
This gives me some hope for the second half going better than the first, as it always has over Maddon's tenure. I look to getting Darvish back and healthy, and (hopefully) a re-deploy with Chatwood taking Montgomery's place in the 'pen, and vice-versa. And if all else fails, we have a Smyly ace in the hole, that might end up being playable. Or being asked to play, at any rate.
Is there another team in the division threatening? You bet. Just like the Cardinals were threatening throughout the first half of 2016, and the Brewers led the division for most all of the first half of 2017. Sure, the Cubs led nearly pole to pole in '16, but not by as much as y'all might seem to recall. There were times when the Cards were projecting to end up in a much stronger position than they actually did. In general, for the past two years, the Cubs made the Brewers and the Cardinals their little bitches in the second half, and that's what made the most difference in the division. That and treating the Reds like they were a little league team. But this year, the Brewers have a slightly tougher second-half schedule than the Cubs do, and the Cubs have a fairly decent record against them so far.
So, yeah -- how the Cubs do in the division will be based mostly on how we play against the Cards and Crew for the remainder of the year. So, what's new? That is the exact same story as over the past two years. It really doesn't matter what the Brewers or the Cardinals do against the rest of the league; if the Cubs can dominate the remaining series between them and these two teams, I don't have any concerns as to winning the division. And it has been by dominating divisional series in the second half that the Cubs have won the division the past two years.
Sure, the Brewers or the Cardinals could add pieces that make them better and tougher to dominate. I would, if I were them. But that's never a sure-fire move, either. We're all concerned that Milwaukee may get hold of DeGrom or Syndegaard, right? But, tell me, when was the last time either of those guys played an entire season? In other words, the Mets would be perennial division winners "if that rotation can stay healthy all season", and guess what? It never has. Why are we expecting any major piece of it will stay healthy when traded to an NL Central competitor?
The Chapman rental could have gone tragically astray, as well. In fact, at the eleventh hour, it almost did. But the Cubs were lucky (I repeat
the Cubs were lucky) and all of their moves that year seemed to work. Not all moves -- especially pitching moves -- work. In fact, pitching moves seem to fail, or end as washes, more often than they make that crucial difference. They are more notable in their rare successes than in their common failures.
When I look at the Cubs right now, I see a
very good offensive lineup with literally no easy outs in it, but one that can, like really any team in the league right now, get shut down by opposing pitchers having wildly successful nights. I see an offense that is tenacious, has the deepest 4-man bench in the majors, and wins a lot of games against the opposing 'pen when they are mostly shut down by the other guys' starter. Like last night. I also see, for a team that, as you say, did it with pitching in 2016, what looks like the best bullpen in the majors, with an extremely talented, even elite, starting pitching corps that has been badly banged up and underperforming for most of the first half. Assuming the coaches and the front office can swallow their pride, admit their mistakes, and move Chatwood to the 'pen, and assuming a healthy Darvish and more consistent Hendricks for the second half, you could see what you saw in 2017, a Cubs team with the best second half record in all of baseball.
That's why I tend to not get too worried, yet. If we haven't taken a lead in the division and started to separate by early September, then talk to me about being worried. Until then, I plan to sit back and enjoy the ride...
