beckdawg
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I'm not sure how much this has been brought up since I kinda ghosted the board when things became slowly evident that the team may not have the goods. Regardless, I wanted to talk about Schwarber's 2nd half. We've talked about him getting better for several years now and I know people get tired of that sort of stuff. But I've been saying this for awhile now and it doesn't take much to make Schwarber into a very scary hitter. And he's largely made the changes I was talking about.
To that end, he's hitting .281/.367/.634 with a 10.5%/21.5% bb/k rate and a 152 wRC+ over 256 2nd half PAs. He's done this with a BABIP of .287. Before I talk about the numbers I want to give some context. There's 6 hitters in baseball with a better wRC+ than 152 and they are Trout, Yellich, Bregman, Nelson Cruz, Bellinger, and Rendon. His .634 slugging would be 4th behind Yelich Trout and Cruz. So, to say he's been good would be an understatement.
As far as the "why" of it all, the biggest thing is that K rate. This isn't me working stats to field an argument so much as just how baseball functions. What I mean by that is we know Schwarber has BABIP issues. Even in this good period he's below the average of .300 and for the season and his career his BABIP is .276 and .273. Point here being, the dude is going to get out more than a typical player on balls in play. That means strike outs hurt him comparatively more than an average player because he has less room for error on balls in play hence why his batting average has always been kind of shitty despite being a decent player in terms of OBP and power. I've been saying since he debuted that I didn't believe long term he'd be this kind of K machine. The reason why is because in the minors he struck out 21.2% of the time and unsurprisingly he was a monster bat in the minors as he appears to be in the 2nd half of this season.
Another issue we've talked about with regard to Schwarber is his inability to hit LHP. Yet again I have said in the past that I didn't think it would be a problem long term because it wasn't really an issue for him in the minors. For what it's worth, in the 2nd half he is hitting .240/.309/.500 with a 7.3%/30.9% bb/k and a 106 to go with a .300 BABIP. Those numbers don't look great until you consider what his numbers for his career were. For his career they are .198/.302/.356 12.3%/33.4% and a 76 wRC+ with a .277 BABIP. Now none of this is to say the 2nd half numbers vs LHP are amazing. But again for some context, if you compare him to say Rizzo you're talking about Rizzo hitting .250/.371/.435 for a 115 wRC+. Rizzo is a .307/.416/.546 and 150 wRC+ vs RHP. Schwarber vs RHP in the 2nd half is hitting .293/.383/.672 with a 11.4%/18.9% bb/k and a 165 wRC+ to go with his .283 BABIP.
So, while I would argue he still has some work to do improvement wise vs LHP... he's not far off from being a very very scary hitter and I really hope the cubs attempt to lock him up long term before he potentially breaks out next season.
To that end, he's hitting .281/.367/.634 with a 10.5%/21.5% bb/k rate and a 152 wRC+ over 256 2nd half PAs. He's done this with a BABIP of .287. Before I talk about the numbers I want to give some context. There's 6 hitters in baseball with a better wRC+ than 152 and they are Trout, Yellich, Bregman, Nelson Cruz, Bellinger, and Rendon. His .634 slugging would be 4th behind Yelich Trout and Cruz. So, to say he's been good would be an understatement.
As far as the "why" of it all, the biggest thing is that K rate. This isn't me working stats to field an argument so much as just how baseball functions. What I mean by that is we know Schwarber has BABIP issues. Even in this good period he's below the average of .300 and for the season and his career his BABIP is .276 and .273. Point here being, the dude is going to get out more than a typical player on balls in play. That means strike outs hurt him comparatively more than an average player because he has less room for error on balls in play hence why his batting average has always been kind of shitty despite being a decent player in terms of OBP and power. I've been saying since he debuted that I didn't believe long term he'd be this kind of K machine. The reason why is because in the minors he struck out 21.2% of the time and unsurprisingly he was a monster bat in the minors as he appears to be in the 2nd half of this season.
Another issue we've talked about with regard to Schwarber is his inability to hit LHP. Yet again I have said in the past that I didn't think it would be a problem long term because it wasn't really an issue for him in the minors. For what it's worth, in the 2nd half he is hitting .240/.309/.500 with a 7.3%/30.9% bb/k and a 106 to go with a .300 BABIP. Those numbers don't look great until you consider what his numbers for his career were. For his career they are .198/.302/.356 12.3%/33.4% and a 76 wRC+ with a .277 BABIP. Now none of this is to say the 2nd half numbers vs LHP are amazing. But again for some context, if you compare him to say Rizzo you're talking about Rizzo hitting .250/.371/.435 for a 115 wRC+. Rizzo is a .307/.416/.546 and 150 wRC+ vs RHP. Schwarber vs RHP in the 2nd half is hitting .293/.383/.672 with a 11.4%/18.9% bb/k and a 165 wRC+ to go with his .283 BABIP.
So, while I would argue he still has some work to do improvement wise vs LHP... he's not far off from being a very very scary hitter and I really hope the cubs attempt to lock him up long term before he potentially breaks out next season.