Last 10 NFL Draft Results - for those not wanting to trade down

[pdxbearsfan]

There is, as expected a lot of discussion/angst over whether the Bears should keep or trade what will
be anywhere from the #1 to # 5 pick. Since we are locked in to no worse than the 5th pick and because
the trade value is higher for the top 5 picks I looked at the last 10 drafts and the top 5 picks plus added
other notable picks in the 1st round. Results are interesting and I look forward to your comments.
Note - the weather is crap here and I'm bored!

2012 Draft - Andrew Luck, RG III, Trent Richardson, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon
- #9 Luck Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox, #24 Davis DeCastro

2013 Draft - Eric Fisher, Luke Joechel, Dion Jordan, Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah
- #18 Eric Reed, #20 Kyle Long, #21 Tyler Eifert, # 27 DeAndre Hopkins

2014 Draft - Jadevon Clowney, Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles, Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack
- #6 Jake Matthews, #7 Mike Evans, #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zach Martin
- #20 Brandon Cooks
2015 Draft - Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Dante Fowler Jr., Amari Cooper, Brandon Scheriff
- #6 Leonard Williams, #10 Todd Gurley, #17 Arik Armstead, #18 Marcus Peters,
- #20 Shaq Thompson
2016 Draft - Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Joey Bosa, Zeke Elliott, Jalen Ramsey
- #6 Ronnie Stanley, #7 DeForest Buckner, #8 Jack Conklin, #13 Laremy Tunsil,
- #16 Taylor Decker, #27 Kenny Clark
2017 Draft - Myles Garrett, Mitch Trubisky, Soloman Thomas, Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis
- #6 Jamal Adams, #7 Mike Willams, #8 Christian McCaffery, #10 Patrick Mahomes,
- #11 Marshon Lattimore, #12 Deschan Watson, #13 Hasson Reddick, #16 Marlon Humphery
- #30 TJ Watt
2018 Draft - Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Sam Darnold, Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb
- #6 Quentin Nelson, #7 Josh Allen, #8 Roquan Smith, #9 Mike McGlinchey,
- #11 Micah Fitzpatrick, #12 Vita Vea, # 13 Daron Payne, #16 Tremaine Edmonds,
- #18 Jaire Alexander, # 32 Lamar Jackson
2019 Draft - Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Devin White
- #8 TJ Hockenson, #9 Ed Oliver, #13 Christian Wilkens, # 16 Brian Burns, #17 Dexter Lawrence
- #19 Jeffery Simmons
2020 Draft - Joe Burrows, Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Tua Tagovailoa
- #6 Justin Herbert, #7 Derrick Brown, #8 Isaiah Simmons, #14 Javon Kinlaw, #17 Cee Dee Lamb,
- #18 Jerry Jeudy, # 22 Justin Jefferson
2021 Draft - Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Ja"Marr Chase
- #6 Jaylen Waddle, #7 Penei Sewell, #9 Patrick Surtain II, #10 DeVonte Smith,
- #11 Micah Parsons, Christian Darashaw
2022 Draft - Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchison, Derik Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux
- #6 Ikem Ekwonu, #10 Garrett Wilson, #11 Chris Olave, #13 Jordan Davis

Quick thoughts then comments please :
- 7 QB's out of 10 drafts went #1, only 2 or 3 worth that pick- Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow
and Trevor Lawrence is trending.
- Often equal or better players are found outside the top 5 for those leery of missing a pro bowl talent.

2012 - Andrew Luck best player then #9 Luke Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox
2013 - Awful class all around, best player probably DeAndre Hopkins #27
2014 - Khalil Mack best of top the 5, then some great players at #6 Jake Matthews, #7 Mike Evans,
- #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zach Martin
2015 - Poor class, #4 Amari Cooper best of top 5 then #6 Leonard Williams, #17 Arik Armstead
and #18 Marcus Peters
2016 - Best player is #3 Joey Bosa then #4 Zeke Elliott, #5 Jalen Ramsey, #6 Ronnie Stanley,
- #7 DeForest Buckner, #8 Jack Conklin, #13 Laremy Tunsil, #16 Taylor Decker, maybe best after
Bosa at #3 is Kenny Clark at #27.
2017 - Myles Garrett then #6 through #16 and TJ Watt at #30.
2018 - #5 Bradley Chubb then #6 through #18 plus best of all #32 Lamar Jackson
2019 - #2 Nick Bosa then #9 through #19 with a lot of DL and edge talent
2020 - First 3 are great, a miss at #5 with Tua then a big hit #6 Justin Herbert with 3 top WR's at
#15 Jerry Jeudy, #17 Cee Dee Lamb and best of all #22 Justin Jefferson
2021 - #1 with Trevor Lawrence then the meat of the class with #5 through #12.
2022 - too soon to tell but looking up with #2 Aidan Hutchison, #4 Sauce Gardner, #5 Kayvon Thibodeaux
then looking good with #10 Garrett Wilson and #11 Chris Olave
*******************************************************************************************
Bottom line - there is talent all over the first round round and we could trade down from the top 5 and
still get multiple equal or better guys anywhere in the round. Four examples are Hopkins at #27, TJ Watt @#30,
Kenny Clark @ #27 and Lamar Jackson @ #32.
It's not where you pick but who you pick. Come on Poles show us what you got!!

 

[rawdawg]

Uh, Micah Parsons was certainly not the 11th pick in 2021.

But anyway, good post. That's why I am extremely PRO trade down. You can find plenty of talent in the first 2 rounds and I'd love the Bears to get 3 picks there, over the next 2 drafts at least. If you nail those, that's how you become a really good football team. I think Poles showed enough that I trust him to add talent late and in the UDFA route. But I think this team needs star power. While I'd love Anderson or Carter, I think potentially getting multiple stars (potentially 1 each side of the ball) in the early rounds would be preferable.

 

[nvanprooyen]

I think you missed someone AWESOME in 2021.

 

[HearshotKDS]

In favor of trade down for this reason, until you start jumping down multiple rounds more swings in the top 2-3 rounds with a slightly lower hit chance will have a higher expected return than one swing with a slightly higher hit chance. Especially if Bears can turn that "one" swing into three to four picks in the top 3 rounds - higher floor and ceiling imo.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

Uh, Micah Parsons was certainly not the 11th pick in 2021.

But anyway, good post. That's why I am extremely PRO trade down. You can find plenty of talent in the first 2 rounds and I'd love the Bears to get 3 picks there, over the next 2 drafts at least. If you nail those, that's how you become a really good football team. I think Poles showed enough that I trust him to add talent late and in the UDFA route. But I think this team needs star power. While I'd love Anderson or Carter, I think potentially getting multiple stars (potentially 1 each side of the ball) in the early rounds would be preferable.

That was a typo, looked at my notes wrong was suppose to be JF @ #11 and Parsons @ # 12, thanks for the catch, I'm not accustomed to such a long typing job.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

I think you missed someone AWESOME in 2021.

Huge typo, looked at my notes wrong (still waiting for cataract surgery). JF #11 and Parsons #12, with T. Lawrence
and Ja"Marr Chase the best in class. Glad we got Justin over Trevor.

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

This thread was waaaaaay too much effort for the responses you’re going to get lol

 

[Discus fish salesman]

What a massive wall of text

 

[pdxbearsfan]

This thread was waaaaaay too much effort for the responses you’re going to get lol

It was a labor of love for all the nice people on CCS. Rainy windy day and I'm bored plus like to look at how the experts screw up all over the place regularly and see how how my favorites turn out.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

There is, as expected a lot of discussion/angst over whether the Bears should keep or trade what will
be anywhere from the #1 to # 5 pick. Since we are locked in to no worse than the 5th pick and because
the trade value is higher for the top 5 picks I looked at the last 10 drafts and the top 5 picks plus added
other notable picks in the 1st round. Results are interesting and I look forward to your comments.
Note - the weather is crap here and I'm bored!

2012 Draft - Andrew Luck, RG III, Trent Richardson, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon
- #9 Luck Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox, #24 Davis DeCastro

2013 Draft - Eric Fisher, Luke Joechel, Dion Jordan, Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah
- #18 Eric Reed, #20 Kyle Long, #21 Tyler Eifert, # 27 DeAndre Hopkins

2014 Draft - Jadevon Clowney, Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles, Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack
- #6 Jake Matthews, #7 Mike Evans, #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zach Martin
- #20 Brandon Cooks
2015 Draft - Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Dante Fowler Jr., Amari Cooper, Brandon Scheriff
- #6 Leonard Williams, #10 Todd Gurley, #17 Arik Armstead, #18 Marcus Peters,
- #20 Shaq Thompson
2016 Draft - Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Joey Bosa, Zeke Elliott, Jalen Ramsey
- #6 Ronnie Stanley, #7 DeForest Buckner, #8 Jack Conklin, #13 Laremy Tunsil,
- #16 Taylor Decker, #27 Kenny Clark
2017 Draft - Myles Garrett, Mitch Trubisky, Soloman Thomas, Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis
- #6 Jamal Adams, #7 Mike Willams, #8 Christian McCaffery, #10 Patrick Mahomes,
- #11 Marshon Lattimore, #12 Deschan Watson, #13 Hasson Reddick, #16 Marlon Humphery
- #30 TJ Watt
2018 Draft - Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Sam Darnold, Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb
- #6 Quentin Nelson, #7 Josh Allen, #8 Roquan Smith, #9 Mike McGlinchey,
- #11 Micah Fitzpatrick, #12 Vita Vea, # 13 Daron Payne, #16 Tremaine Edmonds,
- #18 Jaire Alexander, # 32 Lamar Jackson
2019 Draft - Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Devin White
- #8 TJ Hockenson, #9 Ed Oliver, #13 Christian Wilkens, # 16 Brian Burns, #17 Dexter Lawrence
- #19 Jeffery Simmons
2020 Draft - Joe Burrows, Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Tua Tagovailoa
- #6 Justin Herbert, #7 Derrick Brown, #8 Isaiah Simmons, #14 Javon Kinlaw, #17 Cee Dee Lamb,
- #18 Jerry Jeudy, # 22 Justin Jefferson
2021 Draft - Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Ja"Marr Chase
- #6 Jaylen Waddle, #7 Penei Sewell, #9 Patrick Surtain II, #10 DeVonte Smith,
- #11 Micah Parsons, Christian Darashaw
2022 Draft - Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchison, Derik Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux
- #6 Ikem Ekwonu, #10 Garrett Wilson, #11 Chris Olave, #13 Jordan Davis

Quick thoughts then comments please :
- 7 QB's out of 10 drafts went #1, only 2 or 3 worth that pick- Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow
and Trevor Lawrence is trending.
- Often equal or better players are found outside the top 5 for those leery of missing a pro bowl talent.

2012 - Andrew Luck best player then #9 Luke Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox
2013 - Awful class all around, best player probably DeAndre Hopkins #27
2014 - Khalil Mack best of top the 5, then some great players at #6 Jake Matthews, #7 Mike Evans,
- #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zach Martin
2015 - Poor class, #4 Amari Cooper best of top 5 then #6 Leonard Williams, #17 Arik Armstead
and #18 Marcus Peters
2016 - Best player is #3 Joey Bosa then #4 Zeke Elliott, #5 Jalen Ramsey, #6 Ronnie Stanley,
- #7 DeForest Buckner, #8 Jack Conklin, #13 Laremy Tunsil, #16 Taylor Decker, maybe best after
Bosa at #3 is Kenny Clark at #27.
2017 - Myles Garrett then #6 through #16 and TJ Watt at #30.
2018 - #5 Bradley Chubb then #6 through #18 plus best of all #32 Lamar Jackson
2019 - #2 Nick Bosa then #9 through #19 with a lot of DL and edge talent
2020 - First 3 are great, a miss at #5 with Tua then a big hit #6 Justin Herbert with 3 top WR's at
#15 Jerry Jeudy, #17 Cee Dee Lamb and best of all #22 Justin Jefferson
2021 - #1 with Trevor Lawrence then the meat of the class with #5 through #12.
2022 - too soon to tell but looking up with #2 Aidan Hutchison, #4 Sauce Gardner, #5 Kayvon Thibodeaux
then looking good with #10 Garrett Wilson and #11 Chris Olave
*******************************************************************************************
Bottom line - there is talent all over the first round round and we could trade down from the top 5 and
still get multiple equal or better guys anywhere in the round. Four examples are Hopkins at #27, TJ Watt @#30,
Kenny Clark @ #27 and Lamar Jackson @ #32.
It's not where you pick but who you pick. Come on Poles show us what you got!!

I agree that there is talent all over round 1. And I’m OK with the right trade down.

I do want to mention if you’re comparing the top 5 to the rest of the first round then your results will be skewed because you’re looking at 5 slots vs 27 slots each year. Obviously with 27 chances you’re going to get good (maybe better) results.

 

[dentfan]

There is, as expected a lot of discussion/angst over whether the Bears should keep or trade what will
be anywhere from the #1 to # 5 pick. Since we are locked in to no worse than the 5th pick and because
the trade value is higher for the top 5 picks I looked at the last 10 drafts and the top 5 picks plus added
other notable picks in the 1st round. Results are interesting and I look forward to your comments.
Note - the weather is crap here and I'm bored!

2012 Draft - Andrew Luck, RG III, Trent Richardson, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon
- #9 Luck Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox, #24 Davis DeCastro

2013 Draft - Eric Fisher, Luke Joechel, Dion Jordan, Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah
- #18 Eric Reed, #20 Kyle Long, #21 Tyler Eifert, # 27 DeAndre Hopkins

2014 Draft - Jadevon Clowney, Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles, Sammy Watkins, Khalil Mack
- #6 Jake Matthews, #7 Mike Evans, #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zach Martin
- #20 Brandon Cooks
2015 Draft - Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Dante Fowler Jr., Amari Cooper, Brandon Scheriff
- #6 Leonard Williams, #10 Todd Gurley, #17 Arik Armstead, #18 Marcus Peters,
- #20 Shaq Thompson
2016 Draft - Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Joey Bosa, Zeke Elliott, Jalen Ramsey
- #6 Ronnie Stanley, #7 DeForest Buckner, #8 Jack Conklin, #13 Laremy Tunsil,
- #16 Taylor Decker, #27 Kenny Clark
2017 Draft - Myles Garrett, Mitch Trubisky, Soloman Thomas, Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis
- #6 Jamal Adams, #7 Mike Willams, #8 Christian McCaffery, #10 Patrick Mahomes,
- #11 Marshon Lattimore, #12 Deschan Watson, #13 Hasson Reddick, #16 Marlon Humphery
- #30 TJ Watt
2018 Draft - Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Sam Darnold, Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb
- #6 Quentin Nelson, #7 Josh Allen, #8 Roquan Smith, #9 Mike McGlinchey,
- #11 Micah Fitzpatrick, #12 Vita Vea, # 13 Daron Payne, #16 Tremaine Edmonds,
- #18 Jaire Alexander, # 32 Lamar Jackson
2019 Draft - Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Clelin Ferrell, Devin White
- #8 TJ Hockenson, #9 Ed Oliver, #13 Christian Wilkens, # 16 Brian Burns, #17 Dexter Lawrence
- #19 Jeffery Simmons
2020 Draft - Joe Burrows, Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Tua Tagovailoa
- #6 Justin Herbert, #7 Derrick Brown, #8 Isaiah Simmons, #14 Javon Kinlaw, #17 Cee Dee Lamb,
- #18 Jerry Jeudy, # 22 Justin Jefferson
2021 Draft - Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Ja"Marr Chase
- #6 Jaylen Waddle, #7 Penei Sewell, #9 Patrick Surtain II, #10 DeVonte Smith,
- #11 Micah Parsons, Christian Darashaw
2022 Draft - Travon Walker, Aidan Hutchison, Derik Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux
- #6 Ikem Ekwonu, #10 Garrett Wilson, #11 Chris Olave, #13 Jordan Davis

Quick thoughts then comments please :
- 7 QB's out of 10 drafts went #1, only 2 or 3 worth that pick- Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow
and Trevor Lawrence is trending.
- Often equal or better players are found outside the top 5 for those leery of missing a pro bowl talent.

2012 - Andrew Luck best player then #9 Luke Kuechly, #10 Stephon Gilmore, #12 Fletcher Cox
2013 - Awful class all around, best player probably DeAndre Hopkins #27
2014 - Khalil Mack best of top the 5, then some great players at #6 Jake Matthews, #7 Mike Evans,
- #12 OBJ, #13 Aaron Donald, #16 Zach Martin
2015 - Poor class, #4 Amari Cooper best of top 5 then #6 Leonard Williams, #17 Arik Armstead
and #18 Marcus Peters
2016 - Best player is #3 Joey Bosa then #4 Zeke Elliott, #5 Jalen Ramsey, #6 Ronnie Stanley,
- #7 DeForest Buckner, #8 Jack Conklin, #13 Laremy Tunsil, #16 Taylor Decker, maybe best after
Bosa at #3 is Kenny Clark at #27.
2017 - Myles Garrett then #6 through #16 and TJ Watt at #30.
2018 - #5 Bradley Chubb then #6 through #18 plus best of all #32 Lamar Jackson
2019 - #2 Nick Bosa then #9 through #19 with a lot of DL and edge talent
2020 - First 3 are great, a miss at #5 with Tua then a big hit #6 Justin Herbert with 3 top WR's at
#15 Jerry Jeudy, #17 Cee Dee Lamb and best of all #22 Justin Jefferson
2021 - #1 with Trevor Lawrence then the meat of the class with #5 through #12.
2022 - too soon to tell but looking up with #2 Aidan Hutchison, #4 Sauce Gardner, #5 Kayvon Thibodeaux
then looking good with #10 Garrett Wilson and #11 Chris Olave
*******************************************************************************************
Bottom line - there is talent all over the first round round and we could trade down from the top 5 and
still get multiple equal or better guys anywhere in the round. Four examples are Hopkins at #27, TJ Watt @#30,
Kenny Clark @ #27 and Lamar Jackson @ #32.
It's not where you pick but who you pick. Come on Poles show us what you got!!

I really appreciate posts that cover a lot of ground. Nice job.

I have been lobbying for a trade down from jump. I’d like to see 4-5 picks in the top 50. The more swings, the better.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

I really appreciate posts that cover a lot of ground. Nice job.

I have been lobbying for a trade down from jump. I’d like to see 4-5 picks in the top 50. The more swings, the better.

thanks, 4-5 top 50 picks would be nice to get.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Huge typo, looked at my notes wrong (still waiting for cataract surgery). JF #11 and Parsons #12, with T. Lawrence
and Ja"Marr Chase the best in class. Glad we got Justin over Trevor.

Trevor has undoubtedly been the better QB so far. I’m pretty sure Jax fans are happy they got Trevor. Fields has the higher ceiling but has to prove he can reach it.

 

[napo55]

Thanks for an interesting post. Of course you chose the lower choices that turned out well. You probably could have picked players in the same range who failed or were nothing special.

A lot depends on your estimation of Pole's draft judgment. I'm not optimistic based on his record so far in free agency and the draft. A premium pick at #2 like Will Anderson is pretty much a guarantee of success, even with a less than special GM.

 

[Noonthirtyjoe]

Trading back a little is the prudent thing to do. IF If they offer a haul. But getting that stud star young defensive player to build the defense is great too. We are good either way. Gonna be a very interesting off season.

 

[pdxbearsfan]

Thanks for an interesting post. Of course you chose the lower choices that turned out well. You probably could have picked players in the same range who failed or were nothing special.

A lot depends on your estimation of Pole's draft judgment. I'm not optimistic based on his record so far in free agency and the draft. A premium pick at #2 like Will Anderson is pretty much a guarantee of success, even with a less than special GM.

Of course I chose the lower picks that turned out well, my point was there are many as good or better choices just like in the top 5. Lot's of misses in top 5 in these drafts I looked so they're not a guarantee either. I understand your point and you're correct but it wasn't the point I was trying to make in this case.

 

[Bearly]

You're still more likely to find special early than late. Later hits doesn't mean you less likely to hit early. Quite the opposite outside if QB, which are always difficult to predict.

That said, with as much as this team needs, a trad down is warranted unless the staff feel a given player if a possible HOF candidate.

 

[satchice]

The thing is everyone always says draft best player available. And it makes a lot of sense on paper. However, nobody knows the best player is, or who even is a good player. Or, who is a bust for that matter.

So, I say draft for need. The trick is knowing or trying to project where that position of need is valued by the other teams in the league. Then the having the GM in place who can negotiate a deal to move down to that position to feel the need at a reasonable cost.

Our three biggest needs in no particular order are: C, OT, WR

We should target all of those positions as well as some defensive positions in FA to fill holes and to make upgrades for reasonable amounts. Then double down on the O needs early in the draft, even if it means trading down, but not reaching too much.

If you don’t understand that, and you’ve been on this site since Cutler, then you really don’t know what you’re watching. The Chicago Bears ruined Cutler by his third year in Chicago.

Do you really not want to try to develop Justin Fields? Would it be so bad for year two that we had a really good offense and a below average defense? Ryan fucking Pace took a shit defense and turned them into a top unit in 2 seasons, twice. I kind of feel like it’s easy to fix a defense, and even if they’re
not great if the O is good, the defense does not need to be all time great.

 

[bears26]

In favor of trade down for this reason, until you start jumping down multiple rounds more swings in the top 2-3 rounds with a slightly lower hit chance will have a higher expected return than one swing with a slightly higher hit chance. Especially if Bears can turn that "one" swing into three to four picks in the top 3 rounds - higher floor and ceiling imo.

Trading down is the only option this year. Almost 100% chance the Bears will be trading down.

 

[E.F.Hutton]

You make some good points. Probably a better comparison would be the top five against 5-10, then against 10-15 etc. but I don't have the time or patience to do it. I'm thankful for all the info you have already compiled. Bottom line; it's going to take some monumental stupid to screw this up, whether the Bears trade down or stand pat.