Man.... schwarber looks..... weird now

[beckdawg]

IMO, Happ will have a better career than Schwarber or Almora

Think that's fair assumption on Almora though i think it kind of depends on what you're looking for. People are far to down on Almora. He could very easily be a 3+ win player which is approaching all-star level that typically starts around 4. He was worth 1.2 wins in 323 PAs last year. And while that is sorta cherry picked because Maddon purposefully started him vs LHP more often than a normal player would see their preferred pitcher, there's reason to believe he's not as platoon heavy as some would have you believe. He was 12-62(.193) vs RHP with 3 walks(4.5%) and 11 K's(16.7%) in april and may last year. The rest of the season he was 39-126(.309) with 3 walks(2.2%) and 25 k's(18.9%). And to increase the sample size some, he hit .286/.324/.400 vs RHP in 2016 over 74 PAs with 5.4%/20.3% bb/k rates.

So, when people suggest he can't lead off I'm not sure I agree. He definitely can lead off vs LHP. He's a career .320/.377/.503 hitter vs LHP over 168 PAs with 8.3%/13.1% bb/k rates. Clearly he has a little work to do with regard to RHP but we're talking about a guy with 440 career MLB PAs. RHP wasn't something that killed him in the minors. In his best 2 years in the minors(2013 and 2015) he hit .308/.350/.473 and .257/.297/.384 at A and AA. Keep in mind that his BABIP in 2015 was .291 for a guy routinely well above that(career .331 in MLB).

Simply put, I think at this point you can probably safely argue for Happ's bat being a far safer bet. But, I think you shouldn't sleep on Almora. His ability play well above average defense in CF along with a better than average bat is a good recipe for value. Kevin Kiermaier is a career .262/.319/.431 hitter and has average over 4 wins a season. Granted I think you could make the case that he's better defensively than Almora but I think Almora has a chance of being better offensively.

As for Happ vs Schwarber, that's a tough sell in my book. Happ isn't going to offer you much more defensively than Schwarber. That is to say he's better but it's not like the gap between them is huge and a lot of people would argue defense is overrated(not me personally but the case can be made). Regardless, if you're comparing their bats then I think it's worth mentioning that in pretty much a nearly ideal rookie season Happ hit .253/.328/.514 with .261 ISO and was worth 113 wRC+. Schwarber's career numbers are .222/.329/.471 with .249 ISO and was worth 112 wRC+. And I think it's more than fair to suggest the player Schwarber was for 277 first half PAs out of his 764 career PAs(36%) is not the player he is. Also Happ's .261 ISO isn't sustainable. Mike Trout's career ISO is .260.

As with Almora, I think people are sleeping on Schwarber's upside. You could legitimately make the case that he was a better minor league hitter than Bryant. Bryant hit .327/.426/.667 in the minors. Schwarber hit .334/.432/.619. So you're talking better average and on base and while Bryant did show more power, Schwarber's .249 ISO in the majors as compared to Bryant's .240 ISO would suggest Schwarber has a touch more power. Clearly Schwarber hasn't developed in the majors as quickly as Bryant has. But we've all seen glimpses of that kind of hitter in Schwarber. He's a career .311/.408/.623 hitter over 71 postseason PAs when you're facing the best of the best in terms of pitching. Thing is he's only had 1437 PAs as a pro(665 in the minors). Happ as an example of a guy who pretty quickly made it to the majors had 978 minor league PAs. Factor in Schwarber missing almost a full year adding to some of the rust early last year and it's not all that surprising he's taken a bit to come into his own.

Either way, it's obvious the front office thinks the guy that he was in the minors is the guy he's going to be. They effectively dealt Eloy over him and Eloy was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. Theo and company haven't always been right on pitching but they really haven't made many mistakes when it comes to hitting. Basically every hitter they've taken high in the draft or signed to decent IFA money has become good with the exception of Eddy Martinez though he still has time. You could argue Soler is a bit of a disappointment but as a player he's not really that bad. It's the fact he can't stay on the field.

 

[Omeletpants]

You guys make some great points and we'll see how it plays out.

With Schwarber and Almora the constant concern is hitting pitching from one side. Unless they fix that they will be limited to part time or replacement status. That doesnt make for star status and we really can't have this.

I really want all 3 of these guys to figure it out as it helps the team in the field or trade. But IMO, I'm betting Happ has the best career

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't think the handedness with Schwarber is as big a deal as some make it out to be. In one of his interviews over the winter Jed Hoyer pointed out that Schwarber was not made a platoon player last June because they lost confidence in him hitting lefties, they were trying to do anything they could to get him jumpstarted from a horrific start. He mentioned they were trying to avoid sending him to AAA at all costs. When he came back and got in a groove, they wanted him to ride that wave but did start batting him against lefties late where he had a .792 OPS and a 99 wRC+in a small sample size. Granted that's a far cry from the .927 OPS and 137 wRC+ he posted against right handed pitchers after coming back from Iowa but it indicated potential. You're going to see him start against more lefties this year increasing his playing time and we'll see. I still think this kid is a hitter not a slugger and will improve on his solid second last year improving his .255/.338/.565 and .903 OPS to somewhere around .275/.365/.595 but we'll all see.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think the handedness with Schwarber is as big a deal as some make it out to be. In one of his interviews over the winter Jed Hoyer pointed out that Schwarber was not made a platoon player last June because they lost confidence in him hitting lefties, they were trying to do anything they could to get him jumpstarted from a horrific start. He mentioned they were trying to avoid sending him to AAA at all costs. When he came back and got in a groove, they wanted him to ride that wave but did start batting him against lefties late where he had a .792 OPS and a 99 wRC+in a small sample size. Granted that's a far cry from the .927 OPS and 137 wRC+ he posted against right handed pitchers after coming back from Iowa but it indicated potential. You're going to see him start against more lefties this year increasing his playing time and we'll see. I still think this kid is a hitter not a slugger and will improve on his solid second last year improving his .255/.338/.565 and .903 OPS to somewhere around .275/.365/.595 but we'll all see.

If you're referring to my comments I agree but I would say thus far he has been platoon worthy. Thus far he's only hit .159/.270/.312 vs LHP. I think the play with him is you start him vs weaker LHP to get him reps vs them and hopefully improve but vs say Chris Sale I think you would instead start Happ in LF and adjust the roster accordingly. That's honestly the nice factor about having Happ be so versatile. You can still give guys like Schwarber and Almora chances vs LHP/RHP respectively but you can pick and choose the really bad match ups and avoid them.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Think that's fair assumption on Almora though i think it kind of depends on what you're looking for. People are far to down on Almora.

I want to make it clear that I am not one of those people. What I am is one of those people who think Happ has a higher ceiling than many here expect.

 

[Diehardfan]

Did I miss something? Isn't Joe Maddon still the Cub's manager? Given his M.O. we will be seeing plenty of all these guys. There will be no set lineups....hell, there's probably only 3-4 guys that you can pencil in on a daily basis.

 

[beckdawg]

I want to make it clear that I am not one of those people. What I am is one of those people who think Happ has a higher ceiling than many here expect.

I wasn't specifically meaning you. I've just seen a lot of cubs fans who seem to think he's closer to a 4th OF than a full time starter. I not only think he's a full time starter but I think he's vastly underrated there. As mentioned I don't think that kevin Kiermaier comparison is that outlandish. Maybe he doesn't get there but what I love about Almora is that even if he's not as good as I think he can be he's going to do all the little things well. He strikes me as a potential team captain type guy in the future. Obviously that's Rizzo at the moment but I think Almora can be that sort of team leader.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I wasn't specifically meaning you. I've just seen a lot of cubs fans who seem to think he's closer to a 4th OF than a full time starter. I not only think he's a full time starter but I think he's vastly underrated there. As mentioned I don't think that kevin Kiermaier comparison is that outlandish. Maybe he doesn't get there but what I love about Almora is that even if he's not as good as I think he can be he's going to do all the little things well. He strikes me as a potential team captain type guy in the future. Obviously that's Rizzo at the moment but I think Almora can be that sort of team leader.

I like him a lot too, and I agree on the leadership. He's never going to quite be Keirmaier defensively but he could be just a notch below and offensively looks like about the same player to me when he matures. I don't think an .800 OPS 105-112 wRC+ is out of the question at all.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Almora's ability to hit playoff level elite pitching will be what separates him form many. Zobrist and Rizzo have this as well. Being able to make contact at near impossible odds.

 

[beckdawg]

I like him a lot too, and I agree on the leadership. He's never going to quite be Keirmaier defensively but he could be just a notch below and offensively looks like about the same player to me when he matures. I don't think an .800 OPS 105-112 wRC+ is out of the question at all.

Well like I said earlier I think he's probably a notch or maybe two below KK in defense but I think he has the chance to be a notch or two better offensively. KK's first 364 PAs in tampa he hit .263/.315/.450 and he was a year older than Almora was last year let alone his 117 PAs as a 22 year old. Almora has hit .292/.330/.448. Both are similar size(Almora is an inch taller though he weighs 20 lbs less at his listed weight so I imagine he has some growth there).

It wouldn't shock me if there's more like 115 wRC+ upside there. After June 1st last year he hit .318/.351/.485 over 213 PAs which was exactly 115 wRC+. There might be slightly more power upside in there as well. I mean that's basically what Lorenzo Cain has been in his career. A very good glove who's a .290/.342/.421 career hitter who's walk rate is below average but that's made up by his strong k rate(6.7%/18.6%). And for what it's worth, Yelich last year was also a 115 wRC+ CF who's not as good a defender. He's a career .290/.369/.432 hitter(121 wRC+). Almora's almost certainly not going to match his walk rate(10.7%) and as such probably wont have that sort of on base but seeing Almora hit .300 with a .430 slugging is more than likely.

To me it's just a question of how much he can improve his pitch selection vs RHP. His 8.3%/13.1% vs LHP is good perhaps even great given how low that K rate is but his 3.7%/18.8% bb/k rate vs RHP has room to grow. If he can +/- say 3% of that from k's to walks he'd be in a really good place.

 

[CSF77]

Well like I said earlier I think he's probably a notch or maybe two below KK in defense but I think he has the chance to be a notch or two better offensively. KK's first 364 PAs in tampa he hit .263/.315/.450 and he was a year older than Almora was last year let alone his 117 PAs as a 22 year old. Almora has hit .292/.330/.448. Both are similar size(Almora is an inch taller though he weighs 20 lbs less at his listed weight so I imagine he has some growth there).

It wouldn't shock me if there's more like 115 wRC+ upside there. After June 1st last year he hit .318/.351/.485 over 213 PAs which was exactly 115 wRC+. There might be slightly more power upside in there as well. I mean that's basically what Lorenzo Cain has been in his career. A very good glove who's a .290/.342/.421 career hitter who's walk rate is below average but that's made up by his strong k rate(6.7%/18.6%). And for what it's worth, Yelich last year was also a 115 wRC+ CF who's not as good a defender. He's a career .290/.369/.432 hitter(121 wRC+). Almora's almost certainly not going to match his walk rate(10.7%) and as such probably wont have that sort of on base but seeing Almora hit .300 with a .430 slugging is more than likely.

To me it's just a question of how much he can improve his pitch selection vs RHP. His 8.3%/13.1% vs LHP is good perhaps even great given how low that K rate is but his 3.7%/18.8% bb/k rate vs RHP has room to grow. If he can +/- say 3% of that from k's to walks he'd be in a really good place.

Normally the main issue is reading the slider with younger hitters. These sliders are coming in from diffrent angles with higher velocity that what they see in the minors. That is going to be a big pitch for him to adjust to.

When I see splits like that it comes down to pitch recognition and seeing the ball coming out of the pitchers hand. He is seeing it better from the left side and is not seeing it as well from righties. I’m not sure if he needs to open his stance more or this is what he is.

 

[beckdawg]

Normally the main issue is reading the slider with younger hitters. These sliders are coming in from diffrent angles with higher velocity that what they see in the minors. That is going to be a big pitch for him to adjust to.

When I see splits like that it comes down to pitch recognition and seeing the ball coming out of the pitchers hand. He is seeing it better from the left side and is not seeing it as well from righties. I’m not sure if he needs to open his stance more or this is what he is.

Numbers on fangraphs appear to back up the thought of it being slider issues. His pitch/c values(0 being average) for 2017 are 1.17 for fastball, -1.43 for slider, -0.26 for cutter, -0.46 for curve, 0.14 for change up, 3.49 for split finger, and -2.98 for knuckleball. The cutter/curve aren't big deals. Obviously you'd like to see them be better than average but -0.5 isn't that far out of the norm especially for someone who's not a "top tier" hitter and is still rather young. The knuckleball value is likely just noise in the few people throwing one.

Based on those numbers it doesn't appear that speed changes bother him so much as movement. The values for change and fastball are fine and even cutters/splitters are fine. The plus side on that is that chances are you're seeing much more movement in the majors than he'd previously seen in the minors so it might just be an adjustment period.

 

[CSF77]

Numbers on fangraphs appear to back up the thought of it being slider issues. His pitch/c values(0 being average) for 2017 are 1.17 for fastball, -1.43 for slider, -0.26 for cutter, -0.46 for curve, 0.14 for change up, 3.49 for split finger, and -2.98 for knuckleball. The cutter/curve aren't big deals. Obviously you'd like to see them be better than average but -0.5 isn't that far out of the norm especially for someone who's not a "top tier" hitter and is still rather young. The knuckleball value is likely just noise in the few people throwing one.

Based on those numbers it doesn't appear that speed changes bother him so much as movement. The values for change and fastball are fine and even cutters/splitters are fine. The plus side on that is that chances are you're seeing much more movement in the majors than he'd previously seen in the minors so it might just be an adjustment period.

Curve is not hard to tell. Fingers behind or to the side of the ball. Change can be tricky to distinguish due to the same type of release. Trevor Hoffman palmed the ball and showed a fastball finger grip to fool hitters. It was not about his stuff vs his ability to hide it.

A slider it is more difficult to tell. The grip it towards the inside lace and it thrown from behind like a fastball but you snap your wrist before release to create spin. Like turning a door knob.

A curve you throw it from the turned position and then push down on release.

video on it.

[video=youtube_share;y11hgeDTZa8]https://youtu.be/y11hgeDTZa8[/video]


From my experience I improved with opening up my stance. But playing at that level who knows if he is able to slow the game down enough to see what is coming.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Did I miss something? Isn't Joe Maddon still the Cub's manager? Given his M.O. we will be seeing plenty of all these guys. There will be no set lineups....hell, there's probably only 3-4 guys that you can pencil in on a daily basis.

I think they realized after last year that Fowler consistently leading off was a good thing. Happ is a SH. Perhaps he can take on that role.

 

[Diehardfan]

This is from a few years ago but is probably not too different numbers wise from today.


https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/1/9/5279736/how-often-batters-actually-bat-their-batting-order-position