Matt Garza Extension

Willrust

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So two lottery tickets or one lottery ticket and a major league pitcher?

Once again at some point you have to stop exchanging quality major league players for the lottery tickets.

Experts like willrust were whining and whining about what a terrible deal the Royals made last offseason in trading away Wil Myers for James Shield.

Shields sits at 6th in AL in ERA and Myers has regressed horribly in his second season at AAA. Still a long ways to go for both players, but at the time of the trade it was assumed that Myers would already be a starting OF in Tampa and instead is barely hitting above his weight at AAA.

There are many, many cases where keeping the older, experienced, quality major league player makes the team better both presently and in the future.

I know, I used that word "BOTH" again that seems to confuse most.

I have always said that the Shields trade to the Royals would hinge on the Royals ability to sign him to an extension. I said that if Shields is nothing but a rental player, the deal would favor the Rays.
 

Boobaby1

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And he was overpaid. Lesson learned

He was overpaid because the Cubs fell short on the pitcher they wanted in Anibal Sanchez, then I believe they were forced to bring in anybody that had any name to somewhat stabilize the rotation, and in my opinion also appease some of the fan base.

That just happened to be Jackson since they were definitely not going after Greinke.

And 13 million is nothing for a team like the Cubs that gladly shipped off a player and paid 18 million of his salary to watch him pitch for Miami last year.
 

KBisBack!

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I have always said that the Shields trade to the Royals would hinge on the Royals ability to sign him to an extension. I said that if Shields is nothing but a rental player, the deal would favor the Rays.

The deal would not favor the Rays if Shields is a rent a player for two years and Wil Myers totally busts with the Rays.

You seem to want to eliminate the possibility that the two years of likely top shelf production the Royals could get could be far greater than anything Myers ever does for the Rays even though that is statistically the most likely outcome.

Here is a big part of this exchange proven players for lottery ticket rebuilding process I don't like.........

Everyone says that the small market teams like the Royals and Pirates can't be competitive long term because they can't pay the players they develop to keep them in their organization, so they are forced to trade the proven, quality players for the lottery ticket prospects.

So that is the reason why the small market teams can't compete.

And yet that is EXACTLY what people are wanting the Cubs to do. Sign major league players they can flip for prospects.

But then if you point out that the major market Cubs are being run like a small market team like the Royals or Pirates, people get offended and say that is absurd even though they are doing the same exact thing.

At some point that becomes almost a self fulfilling prophesy and can end up being a never ending cycle of rebuilding cause you aren't keeping enough talent at the major league level and far more times then not end up with less production at the major league level after the trade for the future.

It doesn't really matter how much talent you horde in the minor league levels if you totally ignore the talent at the major league level and very little of that minor league talent ends up being above average major league talent.

At some point to end the cycle of rebuilding, you have to add talent to the major league level.

If the trading proven major league talent for prospect idea really worked, wouldn't that suggest that the smaller market teams who have developed the talent but been forced to trade away the talent because they can't pay them end up better for it?

But that rarely happens.

In 2011, the Kansas City Royals had EIGHT players in the top 100.

3 of them were in the top ten. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myers. Two years later, not even one average major league player from the trio.

They had two more players in the top 20, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb. Neither player has sniffed the majors. Montgomery looks like he will never record an out in the majors and Lamb is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery almost two seasons ago and has yet to recover the velocity he once had.

That is a big zip out of having five of the top 20 prospects in baseball.

The last three have also done nothing. Christian Colon is struggling at AAA, Danny Duffy is recovering from Tommy John surgery after getting crushed in the majors and Jake Odorizzi has a 5.11 ERA in 3 major league starts.

If it wasn't for trading for James Shields the Royals would have gotten a big fat nothing out of 8 top 100 prospects two years ago.

But some want to trumpet the Cubs being on the path to greatness cause they have added one or two top 100 prospects??

It takes a lot more than that.
 

The Bandit

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The deal would not favor the Rays if Shields is a rent a player for two years and Wil Myers totally busts with the Rays.

You seem to want to eliminate the possibility that the two years of likely top shelf production the Royals could get could be far greater than anything Myers ever does for the Rays even though that is statistically the most likely outcome.

Here is a big part of this exchange proven players for lottery ticket rebuilding process I don't like.........

Everyone says that the small market teams like the Royals and Pirates can't be competitive long term because they can't pay the players they develop to keep them in their organization, so they are forced to trade the proven, quality players for the lottery ticket prospects.

So that is the reason why the small market teams can't compete.

And yet that is EXACTLY what people are wanting the Cubs to do. Sign major league players they can flip for prospects.

But then if you point out that the major market Cubs are being run like a small market team like the Royals or Pirates, people get offended and say that is absurd even though they are doing the same exact thing.

At some point that becomes almost a self fulfilling prophesy and can end up being a never ending cycle of rebuilding cause you aren't keeping enough talent at the major league level and far more times then not end up with less production at the major league level after the trade for the future.

It doesn't really matter how much talent you horde in the minor league levels if you totally ignore the talent at the major league level and very little of that minor league talent ends up being above average major league talent.

At some point to end the cycle of rebuilding, you have to add talent to the major league level.

If the trading proven major league talent for prospect idea really worked, wouldn't that suggest that the smaller market teams who have developed the talent but been forced to trade away the talent because they can't pay them end up better for it?

But that rarely happens.

In 2011, the Kansas City Royals had EIGHT players in the top 100.

3 of them were in the top ten. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myers. Two years later, not even one average major league player from the trio.

They had two more players in the top 20, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb. Neither player has sniffed the majors. Montgomery looks like he will never record an out in the majors and Lamb is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery almost two seasons ago and has yet to recover the velocity he once had.

That is a big zip out of having five of the top 20 prospects in baseball.

The last three have also done nothing. Christian Colon is struggling at AAA, Danny Duffy is recovering from Tommy John surgery after getting crushed in the majors and Jake Odorizzi has a 5.11 ERA in 3 major league starts.

If it wasn't for trading for James Shields the Royals would have gotten a big fat nothing out of 8 top 100 prospects two years ago.

But some want to trumpet the Cubs being on the path to greatness cause they have added one or two top 100 prospects??

It takes a lot more than that.

Pretty sure the cubs aren't trading there proven specs for more specs. There trading stop gap fas that are there to build value and get flipped. The pirates flipped Jason bay when he proved himself. Its completely different when its the teams top proven prospect making a difference in the majors and a fa brought in for the specific reason of flipping at the deadline when they bump the value up.

sent from mars home of Ian Stewarts baseball skills using tapatalk
 

Willrust

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The deal would not favor the Rays if Shields is a rent a player for two years and Wil Myers totally busts with the Rays.

You seem to want to eliminate the possibility that the two years of likely top shelf production the Royals could get could be far greater than anything Myers ever does for the Rays even though that is statistically the most likely outcome.

The way the Rays are constructed and funded, they could care less about Shield's or Myers actual performance. They traded Shields to save money. If Myers becomes a productive major league player, it is a bonus. If Shields continues to perform well, but leaves the Royals once he is FA eligible; what do you think that will say about the Royals? It will continue to add to their stigma of not being able to keep productive players.

Everyone says that the small market teams like the Royals and Pirates can't be competitive long term because they can't pay the players they develop to keep them in their organization, so they are forced to trade the proven, quality players for the lottery ticket prospects.

So that is the reason why the small market teams can't compete.

And yet that is EXACTLY what people are wanting the Cubs to do. Sign major league players they can flip for prospects.

Actually, people are saying that the Cubs won't be forced to trade away players that have proved worthy of their prospect status and actually produced in the majors; like Shields and Garza from the Rays; Beltran, Damon, Dye & Greinke from the Royals; and Bonilla & Ramirez from the Pirates. The Cubs have proven this idea through signing extensions with Castro & Rizzo and have had open discussions regarding an extension with Samardzija.

As to players they can flip; we aren't talking about "core" players. We are talking about back of the rotation SP (Feldman, Baker, Maholm) and position players that have specialized skills (DeJesus, Schierholtz, Hairston) that could peak the interest of playoff contenders at the trade deadline.

In 2011, the Kansas City Royals had EIGHT players in the top 100.

3 of them were in the top ten. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Wil Myers. Two years later, not even one average major league player from the trio.

They had two more players in the top 20, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb. Neither player has sniffed the majors. Montgomery looks like he will never record an out in the majors and Lamb is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery almost two seasons ago and has yet to recover the velocity he once had.

That is a big zip out of having five of the top 20 prospects in baseball.

Hosmer is 23, Moustakas is 24 & Myers is 22. I wouldn't completely right them off as busts yet (Moustakas is apparently trying to pull everything as apposed to Starlin Castro's affinity of going the other way; and both of them are being exploited by their current flaws, and coincidentally is more a matter of youth rather than any significant deficiency in their game). It certainly did take Alex Gordon a while to establish himself, just like Jeff Samardzija. As to Montgomery and Lamb; they have suffered from the same thing many high profile young pitchers do, injuries.

The Royals have also had success with their youth over the past half dozen years (Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Greg Holland, Aaron Crow & Luke Hochevar [as a reliever]).

It is kinda funny, the Royals made all these trades for higher priced talent (Shields, Santana & Davis); but they did this after they had a solid young core on the field. Perhaps you should take a cue from a fellow Royals fan:

http://kingsofkauffman.com/2013/01/20/monopoly-money/
 

brett05

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He was overpaid because the Cubs fell short on the pitcher they wanted in Anibal Sanchez, then I believe they were forced to bring in anybody that had any name to somewhat stabilize the rotation, and in my opinion also appease some of the fan base.

That just happened to be Jackson since they were definitely not going after Greinke.

And 13 million is nothing for a team like the Cubs that gladly shipped off a player and paid 18 million of his salary to watch him pitch for Miami last year.
I am not saying the Cubs don't have money nor will they over pay for people. No team is "licking their chops" hoping to give Garza $20 million per, nor $17, nor $16, nor $15....I think you get the point
 

KBisBack!

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Pretty sure the cubs aren't trading there proven specs for more specs.

If they trade Matt Garza for prospects, that is EXACTLY what they are doing.

The pirates flipped Jason bay when he proved himself. Its completely different when its the teams top proven prospect making a difference in the majors and a fa brought in for the specific reason of flipping at the deadline when they bump the value up.

There is zero difference between the Pirates trading Jason Bay and the Cubs trading Matt Garza.

It would be the same thing.
 

KBisBack!

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The way the Rays are constructed and funded, they could care less about Shield's or Myers actual performance. They traded Shields to save money. If Myers becomes a productive major league player, it is a bonus. If Shields continues to perform well, but leaves the Royals once he is FA eligible; what do you think that will say about the Royals? It will continue to add to their stigma of not being able to keep productive players.

So the Rays don't care if they trade elite MLB players and get busts in return?

That is ridiculous.

Of course they traded Shields to save money. They are one of the lowest revenue teams in the big leagues.

But they also want to field a competitive team because if they go back to 95 loss seasons, that team is done in that market.

There is a lot that can happen before Shields leaves the Royals. They WILL have the money to sign him if they choose to with all the contracts like Santana, Francouer, Hochevar and Bruce Chen.

Yet it fits your agenda to already assume he has no chance at staying.



Actually, people are saying that the Cubs won't be forced to trade away players that have proved worthy of their prospect status and actually produced in the majors; like Shields and Garza from the Rays; Beltran, Damon, Dye & Greinke from the Royals; and Bonilla & Ramirez from the Pirates. The Cubs have proven this idea through signing extensions with Castro & Rizzo and have had open discussions regarding an extension with Samardzija.

Wrong.

Actually there are many people, even in this thread, that are saying the Cubs should trade away Garza.

As to players they can flip; we aren't talking about "core" players. We are talking about back of the rotation SP (Feldman, Baker, Maholm) and position players that have specialized skills (DeJesus, Schierholtz, Hairston) that could peak the interest of playoff contenders at the trade deadline.

Once again this thread is about Garza. Who should most definitely be a core player.

Those other players you have mentioned will bring back very little in return.



Hosmer is 23, Moustakas is 24 & Myers is 22. I wouldn't completely right them off as busts yet (Moustakas is apparently trying to pull everything as apposed to Starlin Castro's affinity of going the other way; and both of them are being exploited by their current flaws, and coincidentally is more a matter of youth rather than any significant deficiency in their game). It certainly did take Alex Gordon a while to establish himself, just like Jeff Samardzija. As to Montgomery and Lamb; they have suffered from the same thing many high profile young pitchers do, injuries.

Both Hosmer and Moustakas are entering their THIRD seasons in the majors and have shown little to no improvement.

The time is now for them to start establishing themselves as the clock is running out very, very fast.

Yes it took Gordon a bit to develop, but he is much more the exception than the rule.

One of these days you have to figure out that the exceptions are not the norm. You love to point out the exceptions and trying to use those examples as the norm.

The Royals have also had success with their youth over the past half dozen years (Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Greg Holland, Aaron Crow & Luke Hochevar [as a reliever]).

Perez, Butler and Gordon are three core players for sure.

Cain has played well for like two months. Long ways to go.

Holland and Crow have been pretty good. But the Royals used the 12th pick in the first round on Crow to be a top of the rotation starter. Not a 7th inning guy.

And Hochevar?? Are you fucking kidding me?? Do you pay any attention at all to what happened prior to the last week or so??

Hochevar has been brutal. One of the worst major league starting pitchers in the history of the game.

If you think finally getting some decent production as a long reliever out of the #1 overall pick in the draft is a smart way to build your team, well we already know you are dumb anyway.



It is kinda funny, the Royals made all these trades for higher priced talent (Shields, Santana & Davis); but they did this after they had a solid young core on the field. Perhaps you should take a cue from a fellow Royals fan:

http://kingsofkauffman.com/2013/01/20/monopoly-money/

A solid young core that lost 90 and 91 games the last two years.

This is the seventh year in the majors for both Butler and Gordon and the Royals teams they have played on have never lost fewer than 87 games and that is the only season they lost fewer than 90 games.

The Royals management knew that there was not enough to the core to become a winning team on it's own.

The only thing between the Royals and another 90 loss season is James Shields and Ervin Santana, and the way they have played the last couple weeks, that might not be enough to stop another 90 loss season because players like Moose and Hosmer have been that bad.
 
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CSF77

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It would depend on what teams are offering and who the Cubs take in the draft.

You have to remember this is a 2 way street. Garza has to want to play on the Cubs and has to believe in what they are doing.

If he feels that this plan will work out it makes it worth his prime years to be on something special.

My opinion is I do not trust that this plan will work out. How can I expect Garza, who is in the front row of it, to have 100% faith in the direction going on.


In all reality if they Cubs keep on playing this game of dice Garza is not going to want to lock up his prime years on a bottom dweller looking for draft picks.

So in view of this I expect Garza to say no thank you and the the Cubs have to get something more then a lottery pick in return.
 

KBIB

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Trade Garza and get a bevy of prospects for him at the dead line.

His value right now is solid enough to return a top notch prospect. Jed should ask for the moon and if he doesn't get it extend him and keep him. Its win/win either way.

If the Rangers want him, ask for Profar.
If the Cards want him, ask for Tavares or Miller.
If the tribe want him, ask for Lindor.

Id somebody wants to spend, you make them spend. Simple as that.


Spank
 

CSF77

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if he doesn't get it extend him and keep him. Its win/win either way.

That is why you are dumb. Garza can say no to Theo and Theo is left with offering Arb just to get a lottery ticket.
 

KBisBack!

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You have to remember this is a 2 way street. Garza has to want to play on the Cubs and has to believe in what they are doing.

You pay him the most money he will get offered and he will want to play on the Cubs.

It is fairly rare that a player turns down more money to play for a winner. Sure it happens, mostly at the end of players careers, not right at the start of their prime earning years which is where Garza is at.

Hell, Charles Woodson just went back to the shitty Raiders for $600k more than what the Super Bowl Contender Broncos offered him.

Money talks.
 

KBisBack!

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Trade Garza and get a bevy of prospects for him at the dead line.

Dumber than extending him and keeping him as has been explained in great detail.

But thanks for adding another name to the list of people saying to trade him that vick and will claim doesn't exist.

His value right now is solid enough to return a top notch prospect. Jed should ask for the moon and if he doesn't get it extend him and keep him. Its win/win either way.

It is actually not a win/win either way.

What can easily happen is that you trade him for prospects and those prospects never develop to even average major league players. That is a loss and has made your organization worse for it.

1st option should be to extend him.

Only if you can't extend him and KNOW you will lose him should he then be shopped for the best package of prospects.
 

CSF77

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But IMO:

This is what I would do if I was calling the shots:

First I would make a ASG dead line extension offer to Garza. Give him a Sanchez valued deal.

If he turns it down start the auctions.

Top team that would need him would be the Yanks.

As far as who they have: Manny Banelos (need to add another row of handicap parking in the stadium). They have plenty of arms in that system. If they could get Mark Montgomery and Banelos in return (after Garza says no thank you) that would be better then another Pierce Johnson type pick.

If no team takes the offer...not likely...then offer arb.
 

CSF77

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You pay him the most money he will get offered and he will want to play on the Cubs.

It is fairly rare that a player turns down more money to play for a winner. Sure it happens, mostly at the end of players careers, not right at the start of their prime earning years which is where Garza is at.

Hell, Charles Woodson just went back to the shitty Raiders for $600k more than what the Super Bowl Contender Broncos offered him.

Money talks.

Depends on the person.

Garz comes across as the winner type.

I doubt he will want to be stuck on a suck team when the Yanks can offer top $$$ on the open market.

Yanks are using a over the hill gang to support CC. They need a legit #2 with miles left in the tank vs keeping on hoping Pett can pump out 100 innings.
 

The Bandit

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If they trade Matt Garza for prospects, that is EXACTLY what they are doing.



There is zero difference between the Pirates trading Jason Bay and the Cubs trading Matt Garza.

It would be the same thing.

Good point, only difference would be that we added an extra step to the process, plus Garza was a Hendry deal right?
 

Willrust

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So the Rays don't care if they trade elite MLB players and get busts in return?

That is ridiculous.

Of course they traded Shields to save money. They are one of the lowest revenue teams in the big leagues.

But they also want to field a competitive team because if they go back to 95 loss seasons, that team is done in that market.

What do you honestly believe is more important to the Rays given their 16 year track record, saving money or fielding a competitive team given they have to choose 1 or the other? Given their track record, they have chosen money every time except for with Longoria. But as you said, he is the exception and not the rule.

There is a lot that can happen before Shields leaves the Royals. They WILL have the money to sign him if they choose to with all the contracts like Santana, Francouer, Hochevar and Bruce Chen.

Yet it fits your agenda to already assume he has no chance at staying.

I agree that there is a lot that can happen. And if you read what I have said you would realize that I stated that the trade with the Royals boils down to them being able to sign an extension with Sheilds. Never said that the Royals won't or can't resign him. Their track record with keeping pitchers (Meche, Greinke & Soria) leans towards them not extending him, but that could change. The same thing can be said for the trade that brought Garza to the Cubs. Based upon Garza's production to date with the Cubs, that trade is going to be defined as a rental if he isn't extended; and could even be labeled a bust if he isn't extended and they don't get a player of value in exchange for him in trade or through arbitration.

As to Hosmer and Moustakas, I already offered what the issue was with Moustakas; lets do the same for Hosmer (and these are issues noted since 2011):
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/5/1/2148553/kansas-city-royals-top-prospect-eric-hosmer
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/eric-hosmers-hacking/

If the Royals choose not to fully look at the issues with those two, it's on them.

And Hochevar?? Are you fucking kidding me?? Do you pay any attention at all to what happened prior to the last week or so??

Hochevar has been brutal. One of the worst major league starting pitchers in

And, I specifically noted that he has performed well as a reliever. In regards to him being a productive relief pitcher, does it really matter where he was drafted? Nope. At least not to me as I would much rather have a productive RP selected #1 over an ineffective SP that was selected #1 overall and refuse to do anything to actually improve his chances for success by forcing him to stay in the rotation.

A solid young core that lost 90 and 91 games the last two years.

This is the seventh year in the majors for both Butler and Gordon and the Royals teams they have played on have never lost fewer than 87 games and that is the only season they lost fewer than 90 games.

And yet they waited until they had more than Butler and Gordon as core players before they spent to supplement their core with proven major league talent via trade and FA. Would it have been better for them to have spent 4-5 years ago when Gordon looked like a bust and only had Butler and Greinke? I don't think so, and apparently neither did they.
 

Willrust

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Should Garza's stress reaction injury last July and setback this March have any impact on the Cubs deciding to offer him an extension?

CFS does offer the most logical solution in: give him an offer and a deadline of mid July. There will be plenty of playoff contention teams that will be interested in Garza and he should be able to net a top prospect as a centerpiece from any of those teams. My list would be:

Texas - Mike Olt
Orioles - Kevin Gausman
Nationals - Anthony Rendon
Red Sox - Jackie Bradley
Arizona - Archie Bradley
 

mountsalami

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And yet they waited until they had more than Butler and Gordon as core players before they spent to supplement their core with proven major league talent via trade and FA. Would it have been better for them to have spent 4-5 years ago when Gordon looked like a bust and only had Butler and Greinke? I don't think so, and apparently neither did they.

That's why they've been a loser. I'm positive you can relate.

And you'll keep bagging those groceries at your full-time job in hopes of someone dropping a twenty dollar bill on the floor every five to ten years.

Why try and better yourself. You've got it made. Right ?
 

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