Meatball coaching logic, are they this stupid?

[bamainatlanta]

If it goes wrong, people are gonna bitch.

If we passed on that 3rd down and Trubisky got sacked or picked, people would have been all over Nagy saying that he should have ran the ball.

Same shit in the GB game when Nagy passed it on 3rd and 1 and we settled for a FG... people were saying he should have ran it instead. Yes, it's easier to say we should have ran when it was 1 yard to go as opposed to 4 yards, but still.... Also, we were running it well in OT. It isn't impossible to think that Howard could have picked up a few yards.

Its not wrong to run it there; it's wrong to call a vanilla RB run up the gut. A misdirection run or RPO, which were more successful, would have been a better run call. Nagy blew this, there is no other way to describe it.

 

[msadows]

One situation was a 3rd & 1 in the red zone(?) And the other was settling for a 50yd+ FG. Different situations entirely. Both strategies tried by him were the wrong decisions. Throw a 1yd out to a 5"8 WR against press coverage was a fool's strategy.

No, both were wrong because they didn't succeed.

Easy to say shit didn't work when it didn't. Nagy said the same thing in his presser.

Fact is, he figured the odds of him kicking a 52 yard FG were higher than the odds of us converting a 3rd down. Which, historically, they tend to be. Sorry but if a kicker we paid a lot for makes a 52 yarder we end up winning the game and this is never an issue. Dude had one job to do and thats kick the fucking ball. This week 7/8 kicks went in over 50 yards, guess who missed?

If kicking it was the right decision or not we won't ever know, but he is growing as a decision maker just like mitch is growing as a QB.

 

[msadows]

I'm 100% for nagy's decision. The majority of kickers in that league make that kick. the fucking rookie kicker on the other sideline makes that kick.

Cody Parkey just aint good. NFL kickers are making a record number of 50+ yarders right now, cody just sucks. Im pretty sure a 70% chance of making a kick is much better than a chance at a 3rd down via throwing the ball, factoring in you could get sacked and be out of field goal range, or end up throwing the ball to the other team.

Yes, he played fox ball, but its also a smart move that would not be even discussed had Parkey done his job.

 

[casinnova]

You guys are still arguing "what if"s and criticizing the monday morning armchair QB concept.... neither of those are part of my OP...

This post is mainly about niners packers and bears packers games. I think Nagy called the Miami game really well. 3rd and long, and instead of playing conservatively for a field goal, they hit a TD pass over the middle. Now, why didn't he do that in the packers game is the question. The OT issue in Miami is somewhat related but a bit different. They could have been a bit more aggressive, but that is more of a what if scenario.

Going three and out to protect a 1 score lead is just not wise. Again, 49ners Packers game is more like the Bears Packers game, not as much the miami game.

 

[msadows]

You guys are still arguing "what if"s and criticizing the monday morning armchair QB concept.... neither of those are part of my OP...

This post is mainly about niners packers and bears packers games. I think Nagy called the Miami game really well. 3rd and long, and instead of playing conservatively for a field goal, they hit a TD pass over the middle. Now, why didn't he do that in the packers game is the question. The OT issue in Miami is somewhat related but a bit different. They could have been a bit more aggressive, but that is more of a what if scenario.

Going three and out to protect a 1 score lead is just not wise. Again, 49ners Packers game is more like the Bears Packers game, not as much the miami game.

Because it was his first game as a head coach and play caller. If he has guaranteed points in front of him to hopefully win the game he takes it. Everyone knew rodgers would march back and shit on us to win the game. Now Nagy knows too.

McCarthy made him his bitch. Nagy even said its a learning experience for him.

Now if he makes those decisions 3 years into his career thats a different story.

 

[jsu34]

People talk only of the 3rd down play call, but it was that series of downs that became questionable. It wasn't just 1 run. It was 3 runs. And no attempt on any runs to get the ball in a better spot for the kicker. Parkey's kick trailed off to the right. Nagy seemed to call runs that wound up spotting the ball on the right hash.
I saw Brady move to the center to set Gostkowski up. Not sure if Parkey prefers the right hash, but given where the kick went, it would have been nice if you've decided to play it save, to run to place the ball in a better spot for the kick.

That plus, if no yards were gained we are looking at 57 or 58 yards for a potential game winning field goal, which is just insane.

 

[I Just Want To Read]

If you think about it, playcalling is a task that humans should be pretty terrible at as it requires analysis of many variables in a very short amount of time.

The first team to have an algorithm or computer program call plays will enjoy an advantage over the rest.

 

[xer0h0ur]

I must be the only one that ever watches press conferences because Nagy after the game said he didn't want to pass and risk a sack driving them out of field goal range. Clearly he took what was to him the calculated risk of running and not getting a first down versus passing and potentially getting knocked out of field goal range.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

I must be the only one that ever watches press conferences because Nagy after the game said he didn't want to pass and risk a sack driving them out of field goal range. Clearly he took what was to him the calculated risk of running and not getting a first down versus passing and potentially getting knocked out of field goal range.

Or you are the only one that treats what is said in a press conference as particularly informative? idk. I think he was trying to out smart the defense on 3rd and 4 and failed. Others think he was settling for a FG. Again idk and I don't even care really.

His answer about not risking a sack (or INT or incompletion or insert anything else that could go wrong) still amounts to him going conservative and away from the hot hand with 2 minutes left and a strong likelihood of losing ... which is exactly what happened.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Sad part is it proves he was coaching scared. To fear a sack (or INT etc) is to not be aggressive like he himself insists he is. I hope he learns from this, I really do.

 

[casinnova]

So no one wants to discuss logic? This post isn't about what if's and second guessing... It is logical to be aggressive for a chance to win. Being conservative in hopes of not losing is like hedging your bets. You just don't ever hedge your bets.... The risk analysis is exactly the same. Who here is a baby bitch and doesn't double down on every 11 in blackjack? why would you not!? That is the point of the OP people... i mean, continue on tho.

 

[xer0h0ur]

You're literally the same type of person that would have been crying about passing and not getting a first down, leaving them with an even longer field goal attempt. Just stop. Find your nut sack and realize shit happens. He played it situationally. If there was a time to pass it was perhaps on a previous down. No one liked the fact he didn't give Trubisky the opportunity to move them down the field. No one.

 

[remydat]

Coaches play the percentages. They watch thousands of hours of film and have all the analytics and stats to guide their decisions.

Fans remember only when it doesn’t work, and incorrectly extrapolate that to be 100% of the time.

No they actually don't. The percentages say you should go for it on most 4th downs and coaches largely still do not. NFL coaches are fairly conservative relative to what the percentages say.

Running 3 times at the 40 is not playing the percentages. Running on 3rd and 4 is definitely not playing the percentages.

 

[xer0h0ur]

No they actually don't. The percentages say you should go for it on most 4th downs and coaches largely still do not. NFL coaches are fairly conservative relative to what the percentages say.

Running 3 times at the 40 is not playing the percentages. Running on 3rd and 4 is definitely not playing the percentages.

Ugh, didn't Nagy go for it on 4th down and his offense failed em? Just sayin...

 

[remydat]

Ugh, didn't Nagy go for it on 4th down and his offense failed em? Just sayin...

There are clearly times Nagy is aggressive. No one is disputing that. I was responding to the idea that coaches play the percentages to point out the NFL is still largely conservative. Most of the time if these guys go for it, it is no because of percentages but what their gut says in that specific moment. Hence why Nagy will be aggressive sometimes and conservative other times especially late. Someone playing the percentages would be more consistently aggressive as the percentages generally favor aggression.

 

[casinnova]

There are clearly times Nagy is aggressive. No one is disputing that. I was responding to the idea that coaches play the percentages to point out the NFL is still largely conservative. Most of the time if these guys go for it, it is no because of percentages but what their gut says in that specific moment. Hence why Nagy will be aggressive sometimes and conservative other times especially late. Someone playing the percentages would be more consistently aggressive as the percentages generally favor aggression.

Exactly... it's like how some scrubs playing black jack will be scared to double down on an 11 when dealer is showing ten or ace. But a real black jack player knows that doubling down on an 11 is THE BEST odds in the entire casino. You always make an aggressive bet on the 11.

 

[greg23]

The additional benefit of running the best play TO GET A FIRST DOWN.....is that it would have not only gotten us closer for a gw fg but it would have also taken the clock down to 0 meaning its win or tie as Mia wouldn't have had any time left to move down the field.

The point is our new " aggressive" coach turtles up into a conservative fashion when his team reached the 41....and hed done that twice now in both losses.

 

[doctorbear]

Just like when I lost all trust in trestman when he kicked on 2nd down, lost trust in Nagy for running on 3 and 4. If he doesn’t make the playoffs that move will define him

 

[casinnova]

The additional benefit of running the best play TO GET A FIRST DOWN.....is that it would have not only gotten us closer for a gw fg but it would have also taken the clock down to 0 meaning its win or tie as Mia wouldn't have had any time left to move down the field.

The point is our new " aggressive" coach turtles up into a conservative fashion when his team reached the 41....and hed done that twice now in both losses.

True... "Believing in your kicker" is not a contingency plan. Kickers miss sometimes. Controlling what happens before 4th down is your best contingency plan.

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[playthrough2001]

Just like when I lost all trust in trestman when he kicked on 2nd down, lost trust in Nagy for running on 3 and 4. If he doesn’t make the playoffs that move will define him

In your mind sure but it isn’t going to “define” him for rational observers. It was one decision in his fifth game as a head coach. Parkey needs to bang home that kick.