MLB draft(June 3-5)

[TL1961]

OK, I found this funny.

One analyst suggests his ranking may be blamed on Boring Name Syndrome.
"If his name was Roxx Jorgensen or Blake Hammer, he might get more attention."

 

[beckdawg]

Here's probably a better way to view this if Jansen is indeed an under slot guy. Think of it effectively as trading down for more picks in the NFL. For example, say Jansen is willing to sign around the 90 value range($657,600). And say the cubs view him more as say a top 50 prospect in this draft. That would be saving $1,912,500. That would be roughly the value of the #38 pick in the draft.

I'm not sure Jansen is going to save the cubs that much money but let's say they do save $1 mil. That's roughly the #66 pick in value.

 

[TL1961]

Here's probably a better way to view this if Jansen is indeed an under slot guy. Think of it effectively as trading down for more picks in the NFL. For example, say Jansen is willing to sign around the 90 value range($657,600). And say the cubs view him more as say a top 50 prospect in this draft. That would be saving $1,912,500. That would be roughly the value of the #38 pick in the draft.

I'm not sure Jansen is going to save the cubs that much money but let's say they do save $1 mil. That's roughly the #66 pick in value.

You're saying that's the equivalent, not because they get an extra pick, but because it allows them to sign one more pick? That would make sense,
But my earlier question still stands - if the amount of money you are allowed to spend is based on where you draft, you should be able to sign all your guys.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

You're saying that's the equivalent, not because they get an extra pick, but because it allows them to sign one more pick? That would make sense,
But my earlier question still stands - if the amount of money you are allowed to spend is based on where you draft, you should be able to sign all your guys.

A lot of guys, particularly high school kids with high upside, often aren’t going to sign for slot value of lower rounds. So by drafting underslot early, you give yourself ability to take chances on high upside kids. You can sign all your draft picks. The idea is always to do your best to sign all your picks. In fact you go under slot with the idea of signing guys you know will be over slot.

 

[beckdawg]

You're saying that's the equivalent, not because they get an extra pick, but because it allows them to sign one more pick? That would make sense,
But my earlier question still stands - if the amount of money you are allowed to spend is based on where you draft, you should be able to sign all your guys.

You're not going to sign all of your guys. There's 40 rounds. You both don't need that many players and there's going to be high schoolers in the 30-40th rounds who wont get enough to talk them out of going to college. I should also add only the first 10 rounds have money associated with the picks. After that you can offer $100k to guys with no penalty and overall you can go 5% over your draft pool allotment.

Best way to look at the draft is typically the best players are taking in the first 5 rounds. That's generally where anyone who gets money is going to get drafted. After that you typically have teams who have gone over slot in the first 5 round trying to save money and they will often sign a senior who has no other option might sign for $10k or whatever on a pick work $100k. Not all of the first 5 round picks will be over slot either but that's typically where teams are drafting more on value rather than money.

After the 10th round things get a bit weird. Typically some really good guys go in the 11th round. You might have fringe 5th round talent going in the 11th. The reason is you have to sign guys in the first 10 rounds. If you don't sign a guy you lose that slot money. So if there's a guy you're not really sure you can sign you don't draft him before the 11th generally. That's how the cubs got riley thompson last year paying a bit over the $100k they could in the 11th.

After the 11th you may have a few more guys who are difficult to sign go in the 12th but generally after the 11th round you're seeing teams draft organizational filler. So if you need say a 2B for A- he's gonna come here. That generally continues to the 30th round. Around then you will see very hard HS players to sign. These will be guys likely to be top picks in 2-3 years. You may not sign anyone from 30-40. However, if you have the money, you might be able to offer a guy $300-500k as a HS guy who 2-3 years from now might turn out to be a potential first round pick.

 

[SilenceS]

I read he only he a fastball and a slider that could be plus with work. Changeup needs a lot of work. Think he could be a bullpen guy that moves quickly through the minors.

 

[TL1961]

A lot of guys, particularly high school kids with high upside, often aren’t going to sign for slot value of lower rounds. So by drafting underslot early, you give yourself ability to take chances on high upside kids. You can sign all your draft picks. The idea is always to do your best to sign all your picks. In fact you go under slot with the idea of signing guys you know will be over slot.

That's true. There were three names thrown out there this year that were likely to not sign if not first rounders. I know Al Leiter's son was one, but don't recall the other two. I don't remember seeing their names, though I didn't pay attention after Cubs picked. (I was watching the end of the hockey game. "Iran-Iraq, who ya for?")

 

[TL1961]

I read he only he a fastball and a slider that could be plus with work. Changeup needs a lot of work. Think he could be a bullpen guy that moves quickly through the minors.

I read he has control issues, so we may see him in the pen tomorrow.

 

[TL1961]

You're not going to sign all of your guys. There's 40 rounds. You both don't need that many players and there's going to be high schoolers in the 30-40th rounds who wont get enough to talk them out of going to college. I should also add only the first 10 rounds have money associated with the picks. After that you can offer $100k to guys with no penalty and overall you can go 5% over your draft pool allotment.

Best way to look at the draft is typically the best players are taking in the first 5 rounds. That's generally where anyone who gets money is going to get drafted. After that you typically have teams who have gone over slot in the first 5 round trying to save money and they will often sign a senior who has no other option might sign for $10k or whatever on a pick work $100k. Not all of the first 5 round picks will be over slot either but that's typically where teams are drafting more on value rather than money.

After the 10th round things get a bit weird. Typically some really good guys go in the 11th round. You might have fringe 5th round talent going in the 11th. The reason is you have to sign guys in the first 10 rounds. If you don't sign a guy you lose that slot money. So if there's a guy you're not really sure you can sign you don't draft him before the 11th generally. That's how the cubs got riley thompson last year paying a bit over the $100k they could in the 11th.

After the 11th you may have a few more guys who are difficult to sign go in the 12th but generally after the 11th round you're seeing teams draft organizational filler. So if you need say a 2B for A- he's gonna come here. That generally continues to the 30th round. Around then you will see very hard HS players to sign. These will be guys likely to be top picks in 2-3 years. You may not sign anyone from 30-40. However, if you have the money, you might be able to offer a guy $300-500k as a HS guy who 2-3 years from now might turn out to be a potential first round pick.

This is a very good synopsis.
I didn't mean "all" as in 30-40, but I was referring to the need to save in Round 1 to sign the Round 2 or 3 guy.
But I like this summary.
I also like that the #1 is a college pitcher. Hopefully his fastball is complemented by enough that he can be a quick riser if he is headed to the pen. (I had to laugh that most analyses put his fastball at 94-98. Clips I saw show it at 95, yet one of the "fanboy sites" refer to it as "touching triple digits". )

 

[beckdawg]

I read he only he a fastball and a slider that could be plus with work. Changeup needs a lot of work. Think he could be a bullpen guy that moves quickly through the minors.

Saw some comparisons to an older Cease.

 

[beckdawg]

Chase Strumpf | Rank: 41
School: UCLAYear: JuniorPosition: 2BAge: 21 DOB: 03/08/1998Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6'1" Weight: 195 lb.Previously drafted: Never

WATCH
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
In 2017, Royce Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft as a shortstop out of JSerra Catholic High School in California. Lewis didn't play shortstop until 2017 because he was blocked by Strumpf. Strumpf has since moved to second base at UCLA and, coming off a huge sophomore season that saw him lead the Bruins in a host of offensive categories, started slowly in his junior season but was starting to show the advanced bat that scouts saw the year prior as the Draft approached.
It's Strumpf's hit tool that stands out. He can flat out rake with excellent strike zone discipline, showing the ability to barrel up the baseball consistently. While he doesn't have huge raw power, there's some definite thump from the right side of the plate and he can punish mistakes. While he was a shortstop in high school, he doesn't have the arm or speed to play there, but he should be a reliable defender at second base.
It's the bat, though, that will get him drafted in the early rounds of the 2019 Draft. He profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman with some power, kind of like a right-handed version of Bruin product Kevin Kramer, who made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2018.

 

[beckdawg]

Draft coverage compared him to a shorter DJ LeMahieu

 

[TL1961]

Chase Strumpf | Rank: 41
School: UCLAYear: JuniorPosition: 2BAge: 21 DOB: 03/08/1998Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6'1" Weight: 195 lb.Previously drafted: Never

WATCH
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50
In 2017, Royce Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft as a shortstop out of JSerra Catholic High School in California. Lewis didn't play shortstop until 2017 because he was blocked by Strumpf. Strumpf has since moved to second base at UCLA and, coming off a huge sophomore season that saw him lead the Bruins in a host of offensive categories, started slowly in his junior season but was starting to show the advanced bat that scouts saw the year prior as the Draft approached.
It's Strumpf's hit tool that stands out. He can flat out rake with excellent strike zone discipline, showing the ability to barrel up the baseball consistently. While he doesn't have huge raw power, there's some definite thump from the right side of the plate and he can punish mistakes. While he was a shortstop in high school, he doesn't have the arm or speed to play there, but he should be a reliable defender at second base.
It's the bat, though, that will get him drafted in the early rounds of the 2019 Draft. He profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman with some power, kind of like a right-handed version of Bruin product Kevin Kramer, who made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2018.

Is he related to the president?
Oh, never mind. That's Drumpf.

College bat - we've seen this before. With nice results.

 

[beckdawg]

Worth mentioning that the fangraphs guys had Jensen going 42 to the O's and Strumpf going 55th. So, seems like there's a wide range of opinions on Jensen(law as highest I saw at 32) but seems like Strumpf is a pretty good get at 64.

 

[TL1961]

I like "excellent strike zone discipline".

 

[TL1961]

Let the legend begin:

Chase Strumpf just got picked No. 64 overall by the Cubs and seconds later, he steps up to bat with two men on and two down. What did he do? Three-run bomb to left.

 

[beckdawg]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1135757627667992577

 

[TL1961]

Then again.....

Michael Toglia made two errors in the first after he was drafted shortly before the game, and Chase Strumpf had a ball go through his legs in the fourth inning right after he was drafted.

 

[TL1961]

Houston drafted Don Kessinger's grandson, who was referred to as possible third generation major leaguer. I didn't recall Don's son making it, but apparently he did.

 

[TL1961]

Houston drafted Don Kessinger's grandson, who was referred to as possible third generation major leaguer. I didn't recall Don's son making it, but apparently he did.

Oh, yeah. Son was Grey. Grandson is Grae.