MLB trade rumors put out their projected arb for teams

[beckdawg]

Marcus Stroman Is another guy that would be targetable for Schwarber. Kyle slots better on a AL team anyways. Add a SP prospect like Alzolay and they might deal. Marcus put up a 3.4 WAR this year and honestly he is up with Q in value going forward.

That is a deal that makes sense for the Cubs. Happ full time in LF gives him a opertunity to settle in and lead off.

Stroman doesn't move the needle enough for me personally. Below average k/9 and slightly above average bb/9. He's going to be the type of guy who lives or dies by his strand rate and that's not entirely in his power to control. He's 3 years younger than cobb but cobb you don't have to give up anything for other than money. He's probably a better bet but there's not enough distance between them for me.

 

[Omeletpants]

Taking all bets that Happ has a better career than Schwarber. Schwarber is in the way of that developement

 

[beckdawg]

Taking all bets that Happ has a better career than Schwarber. Schwarber is in the way of that developement

I don't really see it that way. Honestly I think Happ is better long term at 2B. He's ok in LF defensively but it's not like you're replacing Schwarber with Alex Gordon defensively. And comparable to other LF Happ is average-ish as a hitter. However comparable to 2B he's pretty favorable. And to humor the argument, Happ on the season was a 113 wRC+ hitting .253/.328/.514 with 9.4%/31.2% bb/k rates. Schwarber since June is .244/.336/.557 with 11.4%/32.1% bb/k rates with that previously mentioned 128 wRC+. You're talking about more power with more walks and slightly more k's for Schwarber. That's not to run down Happ either but I just don't think there's that big a gap between their performance. I suppose that depends on how you feel about their respective defensive capabilities. The metrics were split on Schwarber. He had a 7.5 UZR/150 and a -9 DRS. Happ probably didn't have a big enough sample to draw any real conclusions but he was at 0 DRS and 4.6 UZR/150. Among LF with at least 700 innings in LF Schwarber wasn't even the worst. Matt Kemp(-17 DRS) and Khris Davis(-13 DRS) were worse and Melky Cabrera(-8 DRS) were similar defenders. UZR/150 put Schwarber at #4 between Brett Gardner(10.1 UZR/150) and Adam Duvall(5.5 UZR/150).

I think a fair way to describe Schwarber's defense is that he's not ever going to have great range but he's fairly consistent on balls in his range. That is to say he's not going to make many mental errors on plays you should make. Outside the weird play in game 3 I don't recall more than 1 or 2 times this year where he botched something he could get to but as mentioned he's not going to get to all that much. And Schwarber has a pretty good arm for LF. All that being said people undersell him defensively. He's really not *that* bad. His range for instance is comparable with Braun(Schwarber 0.3 in uzr compared to Braun 0.1) while his error rate is comparable to Alex Gordon(0.9 for Schwarber in uzr vs 1.0) and his arm is also comparable to Gordon(4.1 for Schwarber vs 3.5 for Gordon). Gordon is roundly considered the best LF defensively in baseball. I'd also be curious to see how Schwarber's route efficiency is but I'm not sure if that data is out there. If he isn't taking great routes and improves that some his range might grow a little.

 

[Omeletpants]

Here is something else that bothers me about Schwarber, tell me what you think:

-I believe he is a very selfish, willful hitter. He tries to pull every ball no matter if the shift is on and the ball is 6" off the plate. He continued doing this while hitting .170. Read somewhere opposing scouts laugh at him and Baez about this. Now, Schwarber does have great power to left and left/center but it's accidental power. He is so strong that the ball will go out opposite field on balls he tries to pull. I believe the Cubs have tried to convince him to go with the pitch but his stubbornness gets in the way. Even Babe Ruth hit to opposite field when it made sense, but Schwarber seems to be too good for that

Happ will hit just as many HRs, strike out less, play better defense and seems less willful than Schwarber. I would trade him straight up for Robertson and let Yankees fans fawn over him

 

[DanTown]

Here is something else that bothers me about Schwarber, tell me what you think:

-I believe he is a very selfish, willful hitter. He tries to pull every ball no matter if the shift is on and the ball is 6" off the plate. He continued doing this while hitting .170. Read somewhere opposing scouts laugh at him and Baez about this. Now, Schwarber does have great power to left and left/center but it's accidental power. He is so strong that the ball will go out opposite field on balls he tries to pull. I believe the Cubs have tried to convince him to go with the pitch but his stubbornness gets in the way. Even Babe Ruth hit to opposite field when it made sense, but Schwarber seems to be too good for that

Happ will hit just as many HRs, strike out less, play better defense and seems less willful than Schwarber. I would trade him straight up for Robertson and let Yankees fans fawn over him

You always have the best unsourced scouting reports.

While I think Kyle has extreme tendencies, I actually don't think it's pulling the ball when he's hitting HR; I think he has is that he has to give up the inner third because of how slow the start of his swing is to elevate the ball. Kyle has no ability to maintain the inner third of the plate when it comes to making strong contact and that's a problem for him long term. He can mash the ball on the outer third but the reason he struggles so much with velocity/lefties is they can get it inside on him and tie him up.

The comparison to Rizzo that I see here directly contradicts what Kyle's heatmap for where he wants the ball. Also, Rizzo has been (and is currently) far better at making contact.

Schwarber zones making contact above 90%: 1 (middle+middle)
Schwarber zones making contact 80-89%: 2 (up+in, middle up+in)
Schwarber zones making contact 70-79%: 5 (all others)
Schwarber zones making contact > 70%: 1 (up+away)

Rizzo zones making contact above 90% 4 (middle+middle, up+in, middle up+in, middle in+low)
Rizzo zones making contact 80-89%: 5 (all others)

If a guy can throw a swinging strike 20%+ of the time in six of the nine "zones", that's a problem Schwarber has to address and it's even weirder that Kyle's three best slugging zones (outside+low, middle+low, outside+middle up) are three zones that he makes sub 80% contact in. There simply are few players that are 3+ WAR players over the course of MLB history with that kind of low contact + defense. I trust the bat skills in there but I will be honest that I am concerned he's far too much three outcome and that if he sacrificed some power for better bat control, he'd be a far greater player.

 

[beckdawg]

Here is something else that bothers me about Schwarber, tell me what you think:

-I believe he is a very selfish, willful hitter. He tries to pull every ball no matter if the shift is on and the ball is 6" off the plate. He continued doing this while hitting .170. Read somewhere opposing scouts laugh at him and Baez about this. Now, Schwarber does have great power to left and left/center but it's accidental power. He is so strong that the ball will go out opposite field on balls he tries to pull. I believe the Cubs have tried to convince him to go with the pitch but his stubbornness gets in the way. Even Babe Ruth hit to opposite field when it made sense, but Schwarber seems to be too good for that

Happ will hit just as many HRs, strike out less, play better defense and seems less willful than Schwarber. I would trade him straight up for Robertson and let Yankees fans fawn over him

I don't think Happ will hit for the same kind of power Schwarber will in both players prime. As for your question, I'm not really a hitting coach. Data's more my game. I suspect that a lot of the issues people have with him pulling the ball are more accurately issues with his plate coverage. Think we'd all agree that Rizzo is a pretty complete hitter. This year Schwarber's rates were 44.5%/30.1%/25.4% while Rizzo's were 44.9%/33.3%/21.8% Pull/Cent/Oppo. So, in actuality Schwarber goes Oppo more than Rizzo and is roughly the same pull rate. And the thing is on the season Schwarber's BABIP is low but since June when he's been a better hitter it's at .284. So, i'm not all that convinced the shift is hurting him that much any how.

My estimation of what's up with him is a couple of things. First, his contact rate isn't good enough. In the strike zone Rizzo has a 90.6% contact rate. Schwarber is at 80.7%. Outside the zone they are at 71.0% and 58.3% respectively. Thing is, Schwarber's numbers in the minors and college don't show that and typically speaking k rate holds fairly steady once a player adjust to a level. Really there could be any number of reasons why he's struggling there. Without doing a super deep dive into the data I can't say for certain but one thing that stood out to me is how he fairs vs average on various pitches. I wont get super into the data here but the gist of it is this. Fastballs and cutters he's marginally above average on. Sinkers he's below average on. Sliders absolutely eat him up. He destroys change ups and he's above average on curves. Putting that slider number in perspective here, among players with 400 or more PAs he's 15th worst at hitting sliders. Looking at his heat map that's pretty much how they've pitched him, low and away. And his contact rates on the outside of the plate aren't particularly good. And I mean it makes sense. Keep the ball down to a power hitter is generally a winning game plan.

Another thing I noticed is just how many pitches he sees. There's a fine line between patient and passive. A passive hitter takes pitches he might be able to crush where as a patient hitter waits for those pitches. Hard to say if that is part of his issue without having more data but I know he's really high in the pitches per plate appearance rankings. Those tend to feature two types of people. One are your high walk/low k rate guys. The other is more your Schwarber type with high walk rate/high k rate mashers. Facts are nobody hits great with 2 strikes. League average is .176/.250/.281 with 2 strikes. Given he's struggling with sliders I'd like to see him be a bit more aggressive earlier in counts. I think he might also benefit from how Rizzo handles 2 strike situations. Rizzo chokes up because he has enough power that he doesn't have to get all of a pitch. Schwarber probably has even more raw power than Rizzo.

Overall though I just don't think Schwarber is a lost cause by any means. And you have one of the best LH power hitters in baseball on his team. I think he'll eventually find some middle ground that will work for him but it just takes time and clearly given how dominant he is in the minors AAA pitching isn't going to get him there. He needs MLB pitching that can effectively challenge his weaknesses. Maybe Rizzo can take him to Votto in the offseason. That did Rizzo wonders in 2014.

 

[CSF77]

Stroman doesn't move the needle enough for me personally. Below average k/9 and slightly above average bb/9. He's going to be the type of guy who lives or dies by his strand rate and that's not entirely in his power to control. He's 3 years younger than cobb but cobb you don't have to give up anything for other than money. He's probably a better bet but there's not enough distance between them for me.

Though payroll is always an issue for the Rays, they’re nonetheless expected to make righty Alex Cobb an $18.1MM qualifying offer, per Heyman. The 30-year-old logged a career-high 179 1/3 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Cobb should draw widespread interest, though I’d personally imagine that the fact that he’s yet to ever reach even 180 innings in a single season (to say nothing of 2017’s diminished strikeout rate) will limit his marketability to some extent. Still, Cobb should be able to score a more lucrative multi-year deal, and it’s difficult to imagine him accepting a QO.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly Cobb is a downgrade to Jake.

It is more about finding a guy that fills that void vs trying to get cost effective. If Jake was 3 years younger then you give him that mega because you would be paying for his peak. The Cubs have controlled those peak years and need to find another in or entering those prime production years. Cobb at 30 is at the peak coming off TJ with a SO nosedive and never breaking 180 IP. He is Hammel 2.0 not a Jake replacement.

Honestly the only guy on the staff right now that I feel is a legit TOR is Q. He can be downright filthy at times. Hendricks beats you in a game of chess. Q just makes you eat dirt.

So I see it as Lester waning over the next few years and they are going to need another young stud. System wise there is no top 100 arm so that really leaves trade or FA

 

[beckdawg]

Honestly Cobb is a downgrade to Jake.

It is more about finding a guy that fills that void vs trying to get cost effective. If Jake was 3 years younger then you give him that mega because you would be paying for his peak. The Cubs have controlled those peak years and need to find another in or entering those prime production years. Cobb at 30 is at the peak coming off TJ with a SO nosedive and never breaking 180 IP. He is Hammel 2.0 not a Jake replacement.

Honestly the only guy on the staff right now that I feel is a legit TOR is Q. He can be downright filthy at times. Hendricks beats you in a game of chess. Q just makes you eat dirt.

So I see it as Lester waning over the next few years and they are going to need another young stud. System wise there is no top 100 arm so that really leaves trade or FA

Cobb wouldn't be Arrieta's replacement. He would be Lackey's. Quintana was the guy they got to replace Arrieta. They need someone who's a solid 4 which frankly Hammel was for the cubs.