JoJoBoxer
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http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/breaking-down-the-nfl-draft/
Some poster(s) have continuously said that trading down is for morons. Yet, that has been proven to be a false statement.
I had previously shown that, in NFL draft history, there is a greater chance for a player drafted in the first 5 slots of the NFL draft of becoming a Hall of Fame player compared to draft picks in any other slot. It is obvious because most NFL drafts usually have 5 or less true blue chip players. Though there have been busts everywhere throughout the draft, the blue chip players have outweighed other positions in regards to being more talented and safer picks.
Now Tony Villioti from National Football Post has come up with a new drafting study that splits the top 4 from the next level (5-13) in the 1st round. From there he goes on to split the rest of the draft into 6 more levels.
Each draft slot in each level has approximately the same chance of success as any other in the same level. Since the Bears draft 7th, they fall within the 5 through 13 level. This means that the Bears can have approximately just as much success at 7 as they do at 13 to not have a bust football player. If the Bears trade down a few spots (not beyond 12 or 13), they historically have the same chance of getting just as good of a player.
Some poster(s) have continuously said that trading down is for morons. Yet, that has been proven to be a false statement.
I had previously shown that, in NFL draft history, there is a greater chance for a player drafted in the first 5 slots of the NFL draft of becoming a Hall of Fame player compared to draft picks in any other slot. It is obvious because most NFL drafts usually have 5 or less true blue chip players. Though there have been busts everywhere throughout the draft, the blue chip players have outweighed other positions in regards to being more talented and safer picks.
Now Tony Villioti from National Football Post has come up with a new drafting study that splits the top 4 from the next level (5-13) in the 1st round. From there he goes on to split the rest of the draft into 6 more levels.
Each draft slot in each level has approximately the same chance of success as any other in the same level. Since the Bears draft 7th, they fall within the 5 through 13 level. This means that the Bears can have approximately just as much success at 7 as they do at 13 to not have a bust football player. If the Bears trade down a few spots (not beyond 12 or 13), they historically have the same chance of getting just as good of a player.
